BIOFUELS: NOW? LATER? NEVER??

Transcription

1 T-MAZ LLC BIOFUELS: NOW? LATER? NEVER?? Terry Mazanec

2 Biofuels Why Not Now? March 18, 2016 United Airlines Begins First Commercial Flight on Biofuels in U.S. Alaska Airlines flies first commercial flight with new biofuel made from forest residuals Posted on November 14, 2016 By Alaska Airlines Biofuels: could agave, hemp and saltbush be the fuels of the future? 9-May-2017 The Guardian

3 Biofuels Barriers and Drivers Barriers Cheap oil Food vs fuel Land use/biodiversity Complex feedstock Petroleum Infrastructure CHO Fracking

4 Biofuels Barriers and Drivers Barriers Cheap oil Food vs fuel Land use/biodiversity Complex feedstock Petroleum Infrastructure CHO Fracking Drivers Renewable CO2 reduction Energy security CHO

5 Biofuels Greatest Challenge: Petroleum Oil refining had a century of optimization Petroleum infrastructure is mature and omnipresent Petroleum is less complex, higher energy density than biomass Petroleum has great economies of scale

6 Economies of Scale Port Arthur TX Refinery (Motiva) 6 th largest in the world 375 MM gal/yr = 24,000 bpd ethanol 10 plants produce > 20,000 bpd ethanol 600,000 bpd 76 in US with capacity > 100,000 bpd

7 The Competition in Energy: Patience is a Virtue 1859 ICE Invented 1910 Rise of Petroleum

8 The Competition in Energy: Patience is a Virtue 1938 Fission discovered % Nuclear Energy

9 Food vs Fuel RFS

10 Food vs Fuel RFS

11 Land Use/Biodiversity: Plantations are Displacing Forests Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen Monocultures reduce biodiversity, are less efficient carbon consumers

12 Biofuels Drivers: Renewable Can achieve steady state where amount used equals amount produced Independent of the uncertainties of prospecting for oil Distributes fuel production throughout the world Can consume waste materials, reducing landfills and emissions

13 Biofuels Drivers: GHG Reduction

14 Biofuels Candidates for Success Sugar/starch ethanol Biodiesel / Renewable Diesel Cellulosic ethanol Improved biomass production (algae, genetically engineered crops) Are expectations realistic?

15 Gartner Hype Cycle of Innovation expectations R&D time

16 Energy Technologies Hype (From: ESKOM 2008) Electricity Supply Commission of S. Africa Biotech (4-8 yrs) Biofuels (4-8 yrs)

17 Ag Science Hype (From: AgFunder 2016) The Next Phase For Agriculture Technology, Rob Leclerc, Forbes 5-Jul-2016

18 Biofuels: DENIS LUCQUIN (Sofinnova 2017)

19 Cost and Pace of Chemical Technology Development

20 Cost of Chemical Technology Development

21 Cost and Timing of Chemical Technology Development

22 Hype Cycle My View Peak of Expectations Plateau of Productivity Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment

23 Modified Gartner Hype Cycle (Dave Algoso)

24 How to Compete with Petroleum? Oil depletion Biofuels Petroleum Fuels

25 How to Compete with Petroleum? Find a niche where the disadvantages are minimized or eliminated Geographic niche where abundant biomass exists far from petroleum delivery system Product niche where specific product is in demand that is not locally available Societal niche where local people need/want independence or cleaner fuels Economic niche where government supplies economic incentive via subsidies

26 Geographic Niche Big Island Biodiesel - Hawaii Hawaii gasoline = $3.35/gal

27 Product Niche High Quality Waxes Velocys 2015

28 Societal Niche Waste-to-Liquids Oberon Fuels supplies DME to NYC Sanitation Dept.

29 Economic Niche Due to Government Subsidies ABLC 2017

30 T-MAZ LLC Terry Mazanec T-MAZ LLC Executive Vice President Lee Enterprises Consulting

31 David Cepla, Honeywell UOP Robert Graham, Ensyn Sjors Geraedts, GoodFuels Alan del Paggio, CRI Catalysts