Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production

Transcription

1 EUROCLIMA Project Agro-environmental impact of biofuels and bioenergy 01/12/11 Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production Marcelo Valadares Galdos Researcher Sustainability Program

2 Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production

3 Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production

4 CO2eq Native vegetation Slash/ burn Livestock / Other crops Sugarcane GHG: CO2, CH4 and N2O C in biomass and soil

5 Manual harvest Pre-harvest burning Mechanized harvest Without burning

6 Leaving crop residues on the field Removing crop residues

7 Bioenergy production Soil water Erosion control ReducingN 2 O emissions Pest management Nutrient cycling Soil C sequestration

8 Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production

9 Use of modellingand GIS in the sustainability assessment of sugarcane production

10 Modelling

11 N P CO 2 N 2 O CH 4 Soil Sediment Water

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14 Crop parameterization prdx(1) potential aboveground monthly production for crops (gc/m2) ppdf(1) optimum temperature for production for parameterization of a Poisson Density Function curve to simulate temperature effect on growth ppdf(2) maximum temperature for production for parameterization of a Poisson Density Function curve to simulate temperature effect on growth bioflg flag indicating whether production should be reduced by physical obstruction = 0 production should not be reduced = 1 production should be reduced biok5 level of aboveground standing dead + 10% strucc(1) C at which production is reduced to half maximum due to physical obstruction by the dead material, used only when bioflg = 1 (gc/m2) pltmrf fulcan planting month reduction factor to limit seedling growth; should be 1.0 for grass value of aglivc at full canopy cover, above which potential production is not reduced

15 Water budget (2000) mm W ATER DEFICIT W ATER SURPLUS RAIN POT EVAP J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 Atmospheric deposition Biological fixation Organic and mineral fertilizer Nitrogen inputs

17 Cult.100 ROWCANE ROW-CULTIVATOR CANE 0.0 'CULTRA(1)' 0.0 'CULTRA(2)' 0.5 'CULTRA(3)' 0.1 'CULTRA(4)' 0.5 'CULTRA(5)' 0.1 'CULTRA(6)' 1.0 'CULTRA(7)' 'CLTEFF(1)' 'CLTEFF(2)' 'CLTEFF(3)' 'CLTEFF(4)' TILLAGE

18 HARVEST Fire.100 CANE 0.30 'FLFREM' 0.9 'FDFREM(1)' 0.9 'FDFREM(2)' 0.7 'FRET(1)' 0.0 'FRET(2)' 1.0 'FRET(3)' 0.2 'FRTSH' 10.0 'FNUE(1)' 30.0 'FNUE(2)

19 Harv.100 GCANE 0.01 'AGLREM' 0.10 'BGLREM' 0.0 'FLGHRV' 0.64 'RMVSTR' 0.0 'REMWSD' 0.0 'HIBG' HARVEST

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21 Mackay (precoce) Measured carbon Simulated carbon CENTURY Simulated carbon CENTURY modified Mackay (tardia) Tully Carbono (gm -2 ) Dias após a colheita Carbono (gm -2 ) Dias após a colheita Carbono (gm -2 ) Dias após a colheita Harwood (precoce) Harwood (tardia) Goiana Carbono (gm -2 ) Carbono (gm -2 ) Carbono (gm -2 ) Dias após a colheita Dias após a colheita Dias após a colheita Pradópolis Carbono (gm -2 ) Dias após a colheita

22 Soilcarbonstocks m 1.5 m

23 Soil carbon Simulated carbon (burned) gm -2 C Goiana Anos gm -2 C gm Pradópolis Anos C gm Timbaúba Anos C gm Mount Edgecombe Anos

24 Soil carbon Simulated carbon (burned) Simulated carbon (unburned) gm -2 C g Goiana Anos gm -2 C gm Pradópolis Anos C gm Timbaúba Anos C gm Mount Edgecombe Anos

25 Data collection Experiments by CTBE Experiments w/ research partners Literature Databases Parameterization Calibration Validation Identification of gaps Selection of priorities Identification of hot spots Modelling Local Regional Terrestrial Ecosystems

26 Geographic Information Systems

27 GIS AGROECOLOGICAL ZONING SOIL CLIMATE CROP ETHANOL PLANTS

28 REMOTE SENSING

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31 GIS / MODELING INTEGRATION

32 GEFSOC modelling system

33 The GEFSOC modeling system ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION STAGE 5 ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS QuantifytheimpactofLUC onc sequestration in soil between STAGE 4 ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS For theyear2010 SOIL C MODELS GIS STAGE 3 SOM MODEL/GIS LINKAGE STAGE 1 MODEL EVALUATION Identify long term experimental data sets Adapted from Milne et al STAGE 2 MODEL INPUT DATA Collate& format national scale datasets of soils, climate and land use

34 November 4th, 2011 Sustainability assessment of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil Marcelo Valadares Galdos Researcher Sustainability Program

35 Measurements

36 Soilcarbonstocks m 1.5 m

37 GHG emissions Manual chambers

38 GHG emissions Manual chambers

39 GHG emissions Automatic chambers

40 GHG emissions TunableDiodeLaser