World Geographic Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 18% 13% 7% 22% 33% 6%
World Population Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 6% 8% 12% 13% 61%.5%
World GDP Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 38% 4% 28% 2% 27% 1%
Relative Growth Rates Real GDP Growth 198 1985 199 1995 2 23 China 7.9 13.5 3.8 1.5 8. 7.5 Japan 9.6 4.6 5.2 1.8 2.8 2. United States -.2 3.8 1.8 2.7 3.8 2.6 European Union 1.4 2.5 3.1 2.5 3.6.8 Latin America 6.3 3.1.6 1.8 4. 1.1
Relative Unemployment Rates 1985 199 1995 2 23 China 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 N/A Japan 2.6 2.1 3.2 4.7 5.3 United States 7.2 5.6 5.6 4. 6. European Union N/A 8.9 1.1 7.8 8. Latin America N/A 5.2 7.2 7.1 7.
16 14 12 1 8 6 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Index 4 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
U.S. Total Debt Outstanding Percent of GDP 14 12 1 Projections 8 6 4 2 194 195 196 197 198 199 2
-3-25 -2-15 -1-5 Is the World Threatened by U.S. Percent of GDP -35 Budget Deficits? Projections 5 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2
U.S. Energy Consumption Gasoline, Fuel Oil, and Other Energy Goods Percent of GDP 3.5 3. 2.5 Gasoline and Oil 2. 1.5 1..5 Fuel Oil and Coal. 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 2
Index 1977=1 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 World Crude Oil Price 12 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
World Energy Consumption Quadrillion Btu 7 6 Projections 5 4 3 2 1 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 21 25 21 215 22 225
Percent of World Total 12 Oil Reserves Selected Countries and Region Percent of World Total 75 1 Former U.S.S.R (L) Middle East (R) 7 8 Venezuela (L) 65 6 4 United States (L) Russia (L) 6 55 2 China (L) 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 45
U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices US$/Gallon 3. 2.5 2. Real (24 dollars) Projections 1.5 1. Nominal.5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4
Index 2=1 12 Dow Jones Industrial Average 1 8 6 9/11 event 4 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23
Index 23=1 25 2 15 Rising Middle East Markets Since Fall of Baghdad Iraq War Qatar Kuwait Saudi Arabia Egypt Israel Jordan Oman U.A.E Bahrain 1 Lebanon 5 JAN 23 JAN 24
EU Real GDP Growth Percent 5 4 3 2 1-1 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
EU Unemployment Rate Percent 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
EU Additional Age-Related in Public Spending Percent of GDP 25 21 215 22 23 24 25 Total additional agerelated spending..1 1. 2. 4.8 6.3 6.1 Of which pensions.2.4 1.1 1.8 3.3 4.1 3.9 Of which health..1.3.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 Of which long-term care.1.1.2.4.8 1.2 1.3 Of which education -.1 -.2 -.3 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.2 Of which child benefits -.2 -.3 -.4 -.3 -.3 -.4 -.4
EU Estimated Change in Deficits and Debt Austria France Germany Greece Netherlands Portugal Spain Memo: United States Deficit (% of GDP) 22 25-1.3-6 -2.8-16 -3.8-22 -1.1-23 -.7-17 -2.8-17.2-7 -1.5-12 Public Debt (% of GDP) 22 25 63 14 59 26 61 37 15 275 52 232 6 278 55 6 6 158
Is Japan Recovering? Percent Change in GDP, Year Ago 25 2 15 1 5-5 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95
Relative Growth Rate Comparisons Percent Change in GDP, Year Ago 25 2 Japan 15 Germany 1 5 United States -5 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95
Is Deflation a Problem in Japan? Percent Change in CPI, Year Ago 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Japan Unemployment Rate Percent 6 5 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Percent 12 1 8 Japan vs. United States Unemployment Rate United States 6 4 2 Japan 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Japan Land Prices Index 2=1 3 25 2 Six Largest Cities Land prices fall for 13 straight years 15 1 5 Nationwide 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95
US$ Billions 2 China vs. Japan Exports to the United States 15 1 Japan s Exports to the United States 5 China s Exports to the United States 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
2 1 China More Than Two Decades Percent Change in RGDP, Year Ago of Growth 21 Member of WTO -1-2 1966-76 Cultural Revolution 199 Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges established -3 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
China Avoids Asian Financial Crisis Percent Change in RGDP, Year Ago 15 1 5-5 -1-15 199 China Korea Philippines 1992 1994 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand 1996 1998 2 22 24
China s Financial System Ample Room for Growth World Total Percent of Total Accounted for by: China Japan United States European Union Population 6.1 billion 2.8 2.1 4.5 6.2 GDP $31.1 trillion 3.7 13.6 32.7 25.4 Bank Assets $36.9 trillion 5.3 16.2 15.7 42.5 Equity Market Capitalization $27.8 trillion 1.9 8.1 49.6 24.7 Bonds Outstanding $31.6 trillion.7 16.7 54. 21.4
China - Unemployment Rate Increases Percent 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23
6 China Surge in Foreign Direct US$ Billions Investment US$ Billions 48 5 4 3 2 1 Annual FDI (L) Cumulative FDI (R) 4 32 24 16 8 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
US$ Billions 4 3 China Rise in World Trade Exports to the World Imports from the World Trade Balance 2 1-1 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
US$ Billions 12 1 8 6 4 2 China Rise in Exports to the United States Exports to the United States Imports from the United States Trade Balance -2 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
China Trade with European Union US$ Billions 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Exports to European Union Imports from European Union Trade Balance -1 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
US$ Billions 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. -.2 China Trade with Developing Europe Countries Exports to Developing Europe Imports from Developing Europe Trade Balance -.4 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
15 Is India s Economic Growth Percent Change in GDP Sustainable? 1 Real 5-5 -1 Nominal -15 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4
Top 1 Leading Economies in 25 Country China United States India Japan Brazil Russia United Kingdom Germany France Italy Current GDP (US$ Trillion) 44.5 35.2 27.8 6.7 6.1 5.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.1
Share of GDP Rises in BRICs Percent of Combined BRICs and G6 GDP 1 8 G6 (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) 6 4 2 BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
5 China Passes Japan, Germany and Nominal GDP, US$ Trillions United States 4 China 3 2 United States India 1 Japan 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Germany 245 25
Percent 1 Highest Growth for India RGDP Growth 8 6 China India 4 2 Brazil Russia 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
Burden on Working Age Population Percent of Working Age (15-64) 1 Forecast Dependency Ratio 9 Japan 8 7 6 United States 5 4 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25
Dependents - Developed Countries Percent of Working Age (15-64) 8 6 Forecast Dependency Ratio Aged -14 Aged 65+ 4 2 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25
Dependents - Developing Countries Percent of Working Age (15-64) 8 6 Forecast Dependency Ratio Aged -14 Aged 65+ 4 2 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25
Percent of Working Age (15-64) 85 8 Dependency Burden Forecast Dependency Ratio 75 7 65 6 55 5 Developing Countries Developed Countries 45 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25
US$ Trillions 14 12 1 8 Global Futures Market Notional Amounts Interest Rate (L) US$ Billions 7 6 5 4 6 4 Equity Index (R) 3 2 2 Currency (R) 1 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22
US$ Trillions 25 2 Global Options Market Notional Amounts Interest Rate (L) US$ Billions 15 12 15 Currency (R) 9 1 6 5 3 Equity Index (L) 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22
Global Credit Derivatives Market US$ Trillions 5 4 3 2 1 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24
Millions 2. Immigration to the United States 1.5 1..5. 1832 1856 188 194 1928 1952 1976 182 1844 1868 1892 1916 194 1964 1988
Immigration to the United States Percent Change, Year Ago 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2
Global Macro Themes From the Perspective of an Investor
Return to Above-Trend Growth Annual % Change 5 World Economic Output* Forecast 4 1985-22 avg. 3 2 1 1999 2 21 22 23 H1 23 H2 24/25 * Real GDP (at PPP exchange rates)
Uneven Global Growth Contributionns to Global Growth Percent of World GDP Growth Accounted for by Selected Regions* Percent 9 75 US & China EU & Japan 6 45 3 15 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 * at market exchange rates
Strategic Outlook: Lower Asset Returns in the Long-Run Financial Returns in 198s and 199s Were Abnormally High Percent 18 15 12 19-1979 198-1999 2-23 9 6 3 US Equities US Gov't Bonds
Near -Term Tactical Outlook Slight Underweight Bonds Slight Overweight Equities - Non-US - Emerging Markets Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields to Rise