BART Click to Capacity edit Master Overview title style for UCLA Lake Arrowhead Conference October 18, 2010 0
BART Basics 360,000 daily riders 104 miles 43 stations 1.3 billion annual passenger miles 1
Transit s Green Challenge Regional planning focus on smart growth/sustainable communities Expectation that transit ridership will increase as a result Many rail systems are already experiencing capacity problems Rail transit infrastructure requires long lead times to implement, and substantial investment to build, maintain and operate 2
Downtown SF Capacity Outlook BART not out of capacity today Near-term growth can be managed: service adjustments station crowd management targeted ticket pricing measures Long-term growth requires major capital improvements Investments require substantial lead time Capacity improvements unfunded State-of-Good Repair largely unfunded 3
Bay Area 2035 Forecast Growth San Francisco Oakland Population 2035 2 million more 37% of regional growth in SJ,SF and OAK 2/3 rd of regional in Urban Core (around Bay) Employment 2035 1.8 million more Of top 10 growth areas, 2/3 rd of regional growth will be in SJ, SF and OAK San Jose 4 4
Priority Development Areas 5
BART Average Daily Ridership Historic Trends and Projections BART Ridership and SF Job Growth 900000 700000 800000 700000 SF Jobs (1) Daily BART Riders 2035 High: 660,000 600000 2035 Low: 536,000 500000 600000 SF Jobs ( 1) 500000 400000 400000 300000 Daily BART Ridership SF Jobs Historic BART Ridership BART FY08 SRTP (FY09 - FY16) MTC T2035 w/o Project MTC T2035 w/ Project 300000 200000 200000 100000 100000 0 0 1969 1974 1979 1984 (1) US Bureau of Labor Statistics 1989 1994 1999 Year 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 6
SPUR Future of Downtown Report East Bay Commute is the Most Constrained Line-Haul Only 7
Patrons (per 15 minute interval) 3500 3000 Patrons Entering & Exiting BART (15-Minute Intervals) Where Do Patrons Enter and Exit? Embarcadero Montgomery 2500 2000 Civic Center 1500 Powell Balboa Park 1000 12th Street 500 0 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: BART DAS data, April 2008 Time of Day 8
BART Ridership Current Travel Markets 2/3rds of BART trips to/from Market Street stations East Bay Weekday Trips by Sub-Area 48%: Transbay 28%: intra-west Bay 24%: intra-east Bay Transbay West Bay 9
Capacity Limiters San Francisco station dwell times limit Transbay throughput Platform and onboard crowding Stairs and escalators Current car design 2 doors per side Transbay Tube - train control system Oakland Wye junction conflicting movements Lack of crossovers, turnback tracks, storage tracks 10
Capacity Constraints Where Could BART See Problems in the Future? On-Board Train Crowding Passenger per Seat or per Car (Load Factors) Train Control System Vehicles SF Downtown Stations Platform Crowding (PM) Stair, Escalator & Faregate Queuing (AM) Emergency Exiting Yards & Shops Station Access 11
Transit Capacity Increases Easier to increase capacity on bus systems quickly, but trade-offs may be operational efficiency. Capital buses, transit lanes/busways, bus stop improvements, maintenance facilities Operating costs Rail systems require much longer lead times to increase capacity. Capital Additional tracks, civil structures (tunnels, elevated sections), station improvements, maintenance facilities, right-ofway, vehicles, power and signaling systems Operating costs 12
Embarcadero Capacity 13
Transbay Corridor Management Illustrative Phased Improvements over 50 Years Max. Load Point in peak direction (future peak hour increase) Short < 2,500 Medium 2,500 7,500 Long 7,500 12,000 BART Remove Train Seats Demand Management Strategies Station Access Station Capacity 3-Door Train Fleet Train Control Improvements Expand Train Fleet Bus Construct New Transbay Tube + Stations Transbay Terminal Bay Bridge Contra-Flow Lane 14
BART Transit Supply Capacity Thresholds (peak hour) Preliminary Analysis Constraint 2009 Actual Ridership Baseline (23 trains/hr) 1 Projected Peak Hour Future Capacity % Additional Growth Enhanced (31 trains/hr) 2 % Additional Growth Tube (one direction) 17,750 24,600 39% 33,150 87% Embarcadero 10,000 13,000 30% 14,000 40% Montgomery 9,500 14,250 50% 15,000 58% Source: Arup, Capacity Scenarios for DMS Modeling Memo, May 19, 2009 1 2 23 trains / hr assumes No Delay scenario. 31 trains / hr assumes Delay scenario, and improved train control system 15
BART in MTC Regional Rail Plan 16
BART Capital Program for Core System Major Funding Shortfalls $14 BART Capital Program (a) ($billion) $12 $10 $8 Shortfall Funded (b) $ billion $6 $4 $2 $0 Core Infrastructure Renovation Existing Fleet Replacement Capacity Modifications (a) Not shown are $30 million in Security improvements and $30 million in Quality Enhancements (b) Funding as "programmed" in MTC 2035 Regional Transportation Plan 17
Examples from Other Cities Paris RER System Regional Express Metro overlaid on top of Paris Metro system 40+ years to develop New York Subway major lines built originally as 4-track lines with express train capability US commuter rail conversion to double deck equipment 18
JR Railway (Japan) Supply-Side Strategy 19
Capacity Overview Questions? 20