World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation October 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released October 12, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 1. 218/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 16 ; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 18.5, 26% below the 5-year average U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3, 8% above 217/18, if realized 2. Consumption forecast at a record 746, 4% above the 5-year average Chinese domestic consumption expected to reach 122, 5% above the 5-year average U.S. domestic consumption to grow 6% year over year to 31.1 3. World wheat trade projected at 18, 4% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 13., 1% below 217/18, and the lowest level since 27/8 Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year 35., still 28% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9, up 14% from 217/18, if realized
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 275, up 7% year over year Beginning stocks in Argentina forecast at 1., down 42% the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 26, 5% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 136 account for 52% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 58.8, down 24% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.6, 15% below the 5-year average of 76.8 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.8 to $5.4/bushel ($176-$198/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
World Production and Use 8 75 741 746 7 65 6 659 715 728 759 731 55 5 Production Use
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 468 468 442 45 396 369 63 72 72 Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 257 275 Production 752 759 731 Supply Total 996 116 16 TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 181 18 DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 65 Feed & Residual 147 144 14 Use Total 739 741 746 ENDING STOCKS: 257 275 26
World Beginning Stocks 3 25 2 111 127 15 39 56 1 69 69 71 5 27 21 2 47 56 57 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio 4 35 34 35 37 35 3 25 26 Percent 2 15 1 5 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China 27.2 25. 24.8 24.3 24.5 23.4 23.6 2. 18.6 17.6 19.8 Percent 15. 1. 5.. 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
World Ending Stocks 3 25 257 275 26 2 111 127 136 15 1 5 77 71 66 17 21 13 52 56 45 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China, 136 Exporters, 58.4 Importers, 65.6
Global Ending Stocks and Price 3 4 25 198 22 35 3 2 15 76 136 214 24 25 2 $US/MT 1 15 5 2 16 13 43 57 45 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Canada Situation 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 32.1 2.2 3. 31.5 22. 24. 1. 5.. 5.2 6.9 6.2 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks 12. 1. 1.4 8. 6. 6.9 6.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4. 2.. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Australia Situation 45. 4. 35. 31.8 3. 25. 2. 23.7 22.3 22.6 21.3 18.5 15. 1. 16.6 16.1 14.5 13. 5.. 4.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 5.7 5.4 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks 1. 8. 8.2 6. 7.1 5.7 5.4 4. 4.6 4.7 2. 3.1 3.9 3.4. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Argentina Situation 2. 19.5 18.4 18.5 15. 14.2 1. 1.5 13.8 12. 9.6 5.. 4.8 2.3.3.8.3 1. 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks 5.5 5. 4.5 4.8 4. 4.1 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 2.5 1.5 1..5. 1..7.8.3.3.5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
European Union Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 157 16 145 152 8 138 6 4 2 35.5 34.8 27.4 23.3 23. 9.9 12.7 15.5 1.7 14.6 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks 25 2 19.4 15 12.7 15.5 14.6 1 1.7 1.1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Russia Situation 1 9 85. 8 7 6 59.1 61. 72.5 7. 5 4 3 2 25.5 27.8 41.4 35. 1 5.2 6.3 5.6 1.8 1.9 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks 2 15 13.7 1 1.8 1.9 5 6.3 5.6 5.9 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Black Sea Region Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 112 118 13 142 125 6 4 51.3 54.4 68.6 61. 2 15.8 2.7 17. 21.3 2.2 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
Black Sea Exports 8 7 6 8.5 8.5 5 4 3 2 1 8.1 9.8 18.6 5.5 11.3 22.8 7.6 7.4 17.4 18.1 25.5 27.8 17.8 41.4 16.5 35. 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks 3 25 23.3 2 2.7 21.3 2.2 15 17. 13.4 1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
U.S. Situation 1 9 8 7 62.8 6 5 56.1 47.4 51.3 4 3 2 1 28.6 27.9 24.5 21.2 2.5 26.6 32.1 29.9 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks 35 3 32.1 29.9 25 26.6 26. 2 15 2.2 16.1 2.5 1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 218/19 217/18
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5.
2. Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date 1.5 1..5. 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report October 11, 218.
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/17 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
World Wheat Imports 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 7 6 5 11.4 Million Acres 4 3 2.1 4.2 6.6 1.3 12.1 2.3 2. 4. 4.1 5.6 5.9 2 1 26.5 23.8 23.2 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
U.S. Hard Red Winter 45 4 35 3 2.4 18. 25 2 15 1 5 1.1 9.9 16. 15.8 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring 25 2 15 1 5 1.5 6.2 6.4 16. 8. 5.2 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter 2 15 7.9 1 7.8 5 2.5 3.3 5.9 5.6 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White 12 1 8 7. 7.4 6 5.3 5.9 4 2 2.9 2.4 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum 5 4 1.4 3 1.4 2 1.5 2.1 1.5.8 1. 1. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report October 11, 218.
18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks 16. 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6 Production 2.4 18. 1.5 16. 7.9 7.8 Imports.2.1 2.4 1.9.1.2 Supply Total 36.6 34. 19.2 23.1 13.9 13.6 Domestic Use 1.7 12.5 7.8 7.9 5.9 5.7 Exports 1.1 9.9 6.2 8. 2.5 3.3 Use Total 2.8 22.4 14. 16. 8.3 9. Ending Stocks 15.8 11.5 5.2 7.1 5.6 4.6 Stocks-to-Use 76% 51% 37% 44% 67% 52%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1. 1. 32.1 29.9 Production 7. 7.4 1.5 2.1 47.4 51.3 Imports.2.2 1.4 1.4 4.3 3.8 Supply Total 1.1 1. 3.9 4.4 83.8 85. Domestic Use 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.3 31.1 Exports 5.3 5.9.5.8 24.5 27.9 Use Total 7.7 8.4 2.9 3.2 53.9 59. Ending Stocks 2.4 1.6 1. 1.2 29.9 26. Stocks-to-Use 31% 18% 33% 37% 56% 44%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 4 35 3 $/Metric Ton 25 2 15 1 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 3 $/Metric Ton 25 2 15 1 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices 26 24 22 $/Metric Ton 2 18 16 14 12 1 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton 1 5-5 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton 15 1 5 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production 75 3.5 3.6 Production () and Harvested Area (mh) 65 55 45 35 25 3.1 3.2 2.9 51.3 47.3 15.2 16. 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 MT/hectares 15 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison 45. 4. 38.8 38.1 36.5 36.1 Million Hectares 35. 3. 25. 3.9 33.8 36.5 36.3 2. 15. 23. 22.4 2.6 18.5 19.1 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
World Wheat Production, Use and Trade 8 2 75 173 183 181 18 19 18 Production and Use () 7 65 6 735 711 752 759 739 741 746 731 17 16 15 14 13 Trade () 55 12 11 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1
World Corn Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () 12 1 8 6 4 973 12 97 178 16 161 134 147 164 163 168 117 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Trade () 4 2 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 Production and Use () 35 3 25 2 15 1 314 133 314 348 147 329 153 157 337 337 369 353 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Trade () 5 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains 7 6 5 $/metric ton 4 3 2 1 PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Russian wheat production to fall to 7., 18% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3, 8% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 26, still 9% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 1.1, 31% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26., down 13% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to hit new record in 218/19; world trade to remain near record high Indonesian 218/19 wheat imports to remain stable at 1.5, still 15% above the 5- year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized