Rice Outlook U.S. and World February 9, 217 Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas System 51.671.21 recoats@uark.edu 1
World Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9, 217 By Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas 8
World Rice Area Harvested 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17 1.4 6.6 7.8 7. 7.6 6.4 5.3 7.3 8.4.2 1.7 3.3 5.9 2.8 1.6 7.7 9.5 1.4 4.2 4.3 5. 8.5 5.8 8.2 16.4 8.8 161.6 16.9 9.1 16.6 161.1 161.2 161.1 161.6 161.2 162.3 162.1 161.3 161.4 165 16 5 5 5 Millions of Hectares World rice acreage at 161.4 million hectares 2 nd highest on record 9
World Rice Yield (Rough) 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4. 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Metric Tons World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare Consistent with previous 4 periods
World Rice Rough Production 17/-216/17 8 464.8 49.8 5.3 519.4 522.9 524. 526.1 539.9 547.3 563.8 575.3 5. 68.8 5.1 5.3 563. 5.4 5.4 622.3 625. 643.6 669.5 656.2 672.1 6.2 74.6 7.3 7.5 73.7 716.8 716.8 717.5 717.3 718.2 72.5 721.3 717.9 7.8 7.9 7 6 5 Millions of Metric Tons 4 3 World rice rough production at 7.9 million metric tons Highest on record 2 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17
World Rice Milled Production 17/-216/17 6 Millions of Metric Tons 3.1 332.1 345.3 351.4 353.3 353.9 354.7 364.1 368.8 38.4 3.4 3.9 49.3 3.2 3.5 378.2 3.5 4.8 417.9 42.1 433.6 449.9 44.7 45.4 467.6 472.5 478.3 478.6 472. 48.7 48.7 481.2 481.1 481.7 4.3 4.8 481.5 48. 48.1 5 4 3 2 World rice milled production at 48.1 million metric tons Highest on record 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17
World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 17/-216/17 5 Millions of Metric Tons..7.3.4.9 16.6 2.8 19.7 18.9 27.6 24.8 22.8 24.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 28.9 29. 31.8 29.5 29.4 31.8 36.5 4. 39.5 44.1 42.6 42.7 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.9 41.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 41.5 45 4 35 3 25 2 World trade at 41.5 million metric tons 4 th highest on record In-part reflects anemic global growth 5 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17
World Rice Total Use 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17 3.2 325.7 336.3 345.3 353.2 357.4 358.9 365.5 368.3 378.2 38. 3.6 4.2 3.6 4.2 48.1 4.8 48.5 4.4 421.2 428.1 437.9 438.5 445.4 46.9 465.4 478.3 477.5 47.6 48.6 48.4 48.6 478.8 478.8 478.2 478.4 477.8 477.8 478.6 6 5 4 3 2 Millions of Metric Tons World rice total use at 478.6 million metric tons Highest on record
World Rice Ending Stocks 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17 81.7 74. 76.5 75.4 8.9 5.3 1.6.6 6.6 6.7 3.1 8.9 7.6 8.1.3 7.7 4. 3.1 6.7 2.9 3..9.1.1 6.8 3.9 3.9 1. 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.3 3.8 1.6.7 1.7.2 8.7 8. 16 8 6 4 2 Millions of Metric Tons World rice ending stocks at 8 million metric tons Highest since 21/2
U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9, 217 18
U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres 12/73 216/17 9,2 1,58,4 1,37, 1,453,3 1,531, 1,467, 1,543, 1,5, 1,, 2,17, 2,4, 2,175, 2,, 1,2, 1,, 1,6, 2,233, 1,9, 2,65, 2,23, 2,372, 2,28, 2,379, 2,3, 1,7, 2,39, 2,568, 2,718, 2,1, 2,6, 2,5, 2,3, 2,571, 2,734, 2,1, 2,52, 2,35, 2,265, 2,6, 1,739, 1,9, 1,767, 2,2, 1,, 2,4, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 216 long grain rice harvested acres estimated at 2,4, acres 31% above 2, 5 year average 1,,8, year average 2,,3, year average 2,268,467 acres 12 14 16 18 1 12 14 16 18 1 19 19 19 19 2 22 24 26 28 2 2 2 216 2
U.S. Long Grain Rice Yield 12/73 216/17 8, 4,6 4,9 4,375 4,376 4,576 4,24 4,45 4,9 4,2 4,449 4,2 4,168 4,5 5,168 5,358 5,241 5,345 5,464 5,221 5,3 5,3 5, 5,69 5,265 5,777 5,3 5,426 5,5 5,8 6,2 6,26 6,451 6,63 6,479 6,727 6, 6,522 6,743 6,4 6,6 7,2 7,464 7,47 7,219 6,7 7, 6, 5, 4, Pounds per acre 3, 2, The U.S. LG rice yield is estimated at 6,7 pounds per acre or 4 bushels per acre. 1, 12 14 16 18 1 12 14 16 18 1 19 19 19 19 2 22 24 26 28 2 2 2 216 21
U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 12/ 216/17 6.1 17.6 16.4.4.2.5..1.4.1.5.1.6.6.3.7 16.2 19.1 19.1 2. 21.6 22.7 23. 25.8 24.3 21.9 22.5 23. 21. 19.5 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 28.5 32.7 35.6 37.7 49.3 5 4 216/17 long grain rice beginning stocks at 22.7 million cwt, previous year average was 24.8 3 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 22
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 12/ 216/17 2 64.3.4..4.8. 9.4 9.2 7.8 9.1 8. 3.1 3.4 1.7 3.6 4.5 9.3 6.4 8.8 1.9 3. 1.9 167.6 7.2 9. 17.4 177.5 7.1 3.2 3.3 2.7 1.3 4.3 162.7 181. 181. 1. 1.7 177.9 177. 176.1 176.1 166.5 166.5 18 16 8 6 4 2 216/17 long grain rice production is estimated at 166.5 million cwt, 25% above last year, 5 year average 8 and year average 7 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 23
25 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 12/ 216/17 9.7 1.5 3.8 9.1.1 8.5 1.9 8.6 5.3 5.3 6.4.6 5.4 2.5 2.9 6.5 162.2 173.5 3.1 1.3 1.1 174.5 1.3 168.9 1. 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 173.3 2.6 18.4 2.5 222.2 224. 224.5 224.5 222.7 221.1 22.2 219.3 219.3 29.7 29.7 2 5 216/17 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 29.7 million cwt, 3rd largest on record, 16% above last year, 5 year average 1 and year average 1 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 June,16 Sept, 16 24
U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 12/ 216/17 29.5 34.1 38.7 48.8 51.2 49.5 55.5 54.5 52.2 56.8 55. 58.4 59.6 61.3 59.7 66.9 76.7 76.2.6.7 78.9.4.7.9 78. 81.1.4.3.9.6.3.1 8.6 6.2 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 8 6 4 2 216/17 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 2 million cwt, 3 rd largest on record, 5 year average 9 and year average 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 25
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 12/ 216/17 47. 44.8 42. 42. 5.5 6.8 61.6 55.6 57. 57.4 61.9 65.5 65.3 69.9 71. 69.8 72.3 71.4 7.3 68. 66.7 68. 73.8 72. 81.4 8.7.8 79.1 74.3 78. 75.8 76.5 81. 81. 81. 81. 81. 79. 79. 79. 78. 76...5 8 6 4 2 216/17 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 78 million cwt, 5 year average 7 and year average 72 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 26
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 12/ 216/17 74.3 76.1.7 9.8. 1.1 6.5 1.3 3.8 1.4 4.8 1.4 1. 2.4 8.7 2. 8.2 7.9 1.5 161.6 4.7 164.2 168.5 165.4 17.4 168.1 166.2 178.4 179.8 1.5 2 165.4 7.1 174.2 7.7 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 18. 178. 18 16 8 6 4 216/17 long grain rice total use is estimated at 178 million cwt, 4 th largest on record, 5 year average 9 and year average 166 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 27
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 12/ 216/17 6.1.3 16.4.4.2.5..1.4.1.5.1.6.6.7 16.2 19.1 19. 2.1 21.6 22.7 23. 24.3 21.9 22.7 25.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 28.5 32.7 29.7 31.7 35.6 37.7 38. 38.5 38.5 36.7 37.1 38.2 37.2 37.3 49.3 5 216/17 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 31.7 million cwt, 3 rd largest since 15, 5 year average 22.3 and year average 23.8 4 3 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 28
U.S. Medium & Short-Grain Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9, 217 29
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Harvested Acres 12/ 216/17 1.2 Million acres.63.72.552.55.635.667.6.758.758.76..781.7.7.6.7..617.6.6.754.63.64.7.63..79..7.7.74.74.69.7 1.9 1.8.6.4.2 9 2 4 6 8 16 31
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 12/ 216/17 5 6.8 9..8..6.7.9.1.3.8.8.3.4.6.7 9.3.4.8 9.4. 9.1 8...1.7.2.3 21.1 2.2 19. 18. 18. 18. 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 25.7 26.2 28.8 3.2 44.7 45 4 35 3 25 2 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 32
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 12/ 216/17 8 35.4 34.5 36.6 4.6 4.5 42.8 45.3 48.3 5.2 51.6 53. 45.1 47.7 45.7 47.5 52.1 54.2 53.7 5.9 5.5 5. 5. 55.2 58. 58.5 6.2 59.8 55.7 58.1 59.6 59.3 62.1 61.9 62. 61.6 59.3 58.7 58.7 57.7 57.7 64.3 67.1 68.6 7 6 5 4 3 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 33
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 12/ 216/17 5.8 55.6 61.7 61.8 63.5 6.5 62.4 64.9 59.6 63.3 67.1 68.9 66.2 64.7 63.4 61.9 73.5 71.2 75.1 69.7 73.3 71.9 7.8 74.8 73.1 76.8 72.5 73.8 76.1 72.5 71.5 8.2 78.6 81.7 81.8.5.1.1.9.6.6 81.6 81.6 9.6 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 34
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 12/ 216/17 5 18.8 24.2 26. 27.7 26.4 26.9 27.7 27.5 28.4 31. 29.4 29.1 28.3 29.6 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 31.5 34.3 35.5 34.5 32.4 34.6 36.1 32.5 32.8 33. 33. 39. 38.6 39.6 37.7 37.4 38. 4.3 41.8 41.9 41.3 44.2 45 4 35 3 25 2 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 35
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 12/ 216/17 4 9.8.9 9.5.3 16.7.9 16.3.4.4 17.5 17.7 2.1 19.4 18.6 17.9 18.8 21.9 21.7 2.9 2.9 22.3 22.9 25.4 25.1 25. 25.7 26.4 27.7 3.8 31.4 31.2 32. 31. 34.1 34.6 34.2 34. 34. 34. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. 35 3 25 2 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 36
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 12/ 216/17 8 35.5 4.7 41.8 44. 46.1 51.4 47.8 48.8 49.5 49. 52.7 52.8 52.9 55.4 61.3 59.4 61.2 59.6 59.2 56.4 59.6 53.9 55.2 53.4 53.9 56. 63. 61.8 66.6 63. 67. 6.3 6.5 6.9 62. 61. 67. 67. 64. 63. 63. 63. 64. 64. 7 6 5 4 3 2 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sep, 16 37
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 12/ 216/17 6.8 9..8..6.7.9.1.3.8.8.3.4.6.7 9.3.4.8 9.4. 9.1 8...1.7.2.3.5.5 21.1 2.2 2.9 16.5 16.1 19.1 19.9 19.6 19.6 17.6 17.6 25.7 26.2 28.8 44.7 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sep, 16 38
U.S. All Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9, 217 39
U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1/51 216/17 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 9 2 4 6 8 16 17 1.65 1. 1.61 1.37 1.44 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.79 1.79 1.8 1.8 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.3 2.5 2.21 2.61 2. 2.18 2.26 2.19 2.37 2.55 2. 2.49 2.51 2.38 2.36 2.49 2. 2. 2. 3.38 3.3 2. 2.73 2.9 2. 3.18 2. 3.35 3. 2. 3.3.29 2.69 2.7 2.63 3.6 3.33 3.24 3.2 3.35 3.38 2. 2.76 3.3. 2. 3. 3.53 3.64 3. 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Million acres 41
U.S. All Rice Yield 1/51 216/17 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 9 2 4 6 8 16 17 2371 239 24 2447 2517 361 32 324 3164 33 3423 34 3726 38 4 4255 4322 4537 4425 4318 4617 4718 47 4275 444 4558 4663 44 44 45 44 4819 47 45 4454 5651 5555 55 5749 5529 5731 5736 55 54 5621 6 58 5663 56 6281 64 6578 667 68 6636 6219 66 7 6725 7677463 76 7576 7472 7237 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Pounds per acre 42
U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 5.1 7.8 7.1.4 16.4 18.6 16.5 27.4 25.7 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 25.8 25. 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 26.8 23.7 24.5 31.6 31.4 31.3 3.4 31.8 36.9 4.5 39.4 39. 37.7 43. 39.3 36.5 36.4 41.1 49. 46.9 48.5 48.5 43.4 42.9 4.9 39.4 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 51.4 64.7 71.5 77.3 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 43
U.S. All Rice Production 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16.8.8.4.8 1.48.4.2.7 1.6 3.2 1.9 6.2 1.7 8.8 4.9 3.4 9.6 3.6 9.9 4.5 6.1 9.4 179.7 6.1 1.8 173.9 171.6 1. 1.4 26. 19.9 2.3 2. 1.9 232.4 223.2 1.6 1.4 23.7 219.9 243.1 1.9 1.9 19. 1.3 222.2 231. 231. 245. 244.3 237.1 236. 234.8 234.8 224.1 224.1 3 25 2 5 44
U.S. All Rice Imports 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 1.4 1.1.5.2....1.1.1.2.4.7.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3. 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.2 6.9 8.1 7.7 9.3.5.6.1.9.2.2.8. 17.1 19.2 19. 18.3 19.4 2.6 21.1 23.9 23.1 24.7 24.1 24. 24. 24. 24. 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 3 25 2 5 45
U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 1.6 5.5.3.1.2 5.5 2.5 9.8 16.7 163.6 172.1 1.6 23.3 172.1 1.3 21.8 2.3 1. 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.2 22.5 231.6 2.9 27.2 219.5 223. 238.2 229.2 256.9 264.8 2.9 269.2 278.1 258.2 261.6 252.4 269.3 252.8 262.1 249.5 278.7 265. 2.9 2.4 2.9 39.9 37.7 37.1 36. 34.7 34.7 2.1 2.1 35 3 25 2 5 46
U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1/71 216/17 16 36.5 37.2 38.2 4.6 43.6 42.1 46.4 39.6 53.4 55.3 64.2 68.6 62.9 54.9 6.5 65.8 77.6 8.4.4.2.2.3.6.3 1.5 4.6 1.6 3.9 1. 1.9 7.5 3.3 3.4 1. 2.7.2 8.1 7.4 7.6 4.4 6.9 1.8 9. 4.4 4.4 1.8 5. 5. 8. 8. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 8 6 4 2 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 47
U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 46.5 56.9 54. 49.7 56.5 65.6 62.1 58.7 69.5 68.9 7.3 72.8 75.7 72.2.6.4. 77.1 71.4 66.5 79.2 76.4.2.9.2 78.3.7.8.8.2 9.8.7.4.3.7.8 3.1 8.8 1.9 4.7 8.4 1.6.9 6.6 7.7 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4.6 8 6 4 2 48
U.S. All Rice Total Use 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16..1.2 9.3 3.1.6 1. 1.4 9.1 7.9 5.6.6 1.8 5.2 2.6 4.5 161.8 2.6 168.3 9.3 162.6 161.9 173.8 176.7 2.3 1.8 179.9 1.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 218.238. 218. 231.5 235.1 218.8 232.2 222. 232.8 249.5 2.7 225.7 217.7 23.2 218.5 248. 247. 253. 253. 248. 245. 245. 245. 244. 242. 3 25 2 5 49
U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1/71 216/17 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sept, 16 5.1 7.8 7.1.4 18.6 16.5 27.4 25.7 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 25.8 25. 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 26.8 23.7 31.6 31.4 31.3 29.4 3.4 31.8 36.9 4.5 39.4 39. 37.7 43. 39.3 36.5 36.4 41.1 49. 46.9 48.5 51.4 48.5 46.5 5.4 5.9 5.1 52.1 56.9 54.7 59.1 61. 59.7 59.7 64.7 71.5 77.3 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 5
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