World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation August 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released August 1, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 1. 218/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 13 ; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in the EU to fall to 138, down 9% year over year, if realized U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.1, 8% above 217/18, if realized 2. Consumption forecast at a record 744, 4% above the 5-year average Russian domestic consumption to decline to 38., 16% below 217/18, if realized U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 3. World wheat trade projected at a record 184, 6% above the 5-year average Russian exports to drop to 35., 17% below 217/18, still 28% above the 5-year average Exports from the EU to fall 2% year over year to 23. U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9, up 14% from 217/18, if realized
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 273, up 6% year over year Beginning stocks in Russia forecast at 9.22, down 15% from 217/18, still 4% above the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 259, 5% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 136 account for 52% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 74.1, down 3% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 48.7, 36% below the 5-year average of 76.5 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.6 to $5.6/bushel ($169-$26/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
World Production and Use 8 75 742 744 7 65 758 73 6 55 5 Production Use
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 468 468 441 45 395 371 63 72 69 Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 257 273 Production 752 758 73 Supply Total 996 115 13 TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 183 184 DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 65 Feed & Residual 147 145 138 Use Total 739 742 744 ENDING STOCKS: 257 273 259
World Beginning Stocks 3 25 2 111 127 15 39 56 1 69 69 72 5 27 21 19 47 56 56 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio 4 35 34 35 37 35 3 25 26 Percent 2 15 1 5 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China 27.2 25. 24.8 24.3 24.5 23.4 23.3 2. 19.7 Percent 15. 1. 5.. 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
World Ending Stocks 3 25 257 273 259 2 111 127 136 15 1 77 69 49 5 17 21 19 52 56 56 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China, 136 Exporters, 74.1 Importers, 48.7
Global Ending Stocks and Price 3 4 25 199 23 35 3 2 136 25 15 76 237 214 2 $US/MT 1 15 5 19 16 12 43 56 44 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Canada Situation 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 32.1 2.2 3. 32.5 22.1 24.5 1. 5.. 5.2 6.9 6. 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks 12. 1. 1.4 8. 6. 6.9 6. 4. 5.1 5.2 5. 2.. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Australia Situation 45. 4. 35. 31.8 3. 25. 2. 23.7 22.3 22.6 21.3 22. 15. 16.6 16.1 15. 16. 1. 5.. 4.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 5.7 4.9 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks 1. 8. 8.2 6. 7.1 4. 4.6 4.7 5.7 4.9 3.9 2. 3.1 3.. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Argentina Situation 2. 18.4 18. 19.5 15. 14.2 1. 1.5 13.8 12. 9.6 5.. 4.8 2.3.3.8.3.7 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks 5.5 5. 4.5 4.8 4. 4.1 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 2.5 1.5 1..5..7.8.7.3.3.3 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
EU-27 Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 157 16 145 152 8 138 6 4 2 35.5 34.8 27.4 23.5 23. 9.9 12.7 15.5 1.7 14.1 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks 25 2 19.4 15 12.7 15.5 14.1 1 1.7 1.1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Russia Situation 1 9 85 8 7 6 59 61 73 68 5 4 3 2 25.5 27.8 42. 35. 1 5.2 6.3 5.6 1.8 9.2 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks 2 15 13.7 1 1.8 9.2 5 6.3 5.6 4.8 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Black Sea Region Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 112 118 13 142 123 8 6 4 51.5 54.4 69.1 61. 2 15.8 2.7 16.8 21.2 18.5 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
Black Sea Exports 8 7 6 8.5 8.5 5 4 3 2 1 8.1 9.8 18.6 5.5 11.3 22.8 7.6 7.4 17.4 18.1 25.5 27.8 17.5 42. 16.5 35. 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks 3 25 2 23.3 2.7 21.2 18.5 15 16.8 1 12.3 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
U.S. Situation 1 9 8 7 62.8 6 5 56.1 47.4 51.1 4 3 2 1 28.6 27.9 24.5 21.2 2.5 26.6 32.1 3. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks 35 3 32.1 3. 25 26.6 25.5 2 15 2.2 16.1 2.5 1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 218/19 217/18
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5.
2. Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date 1.5 1..5. 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report August 9, 218.
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/17 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
World Wheat Imports 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 7 6 5 11.4 Million Acres 4 3 2.1 4.2 6.6 1.3 12.1 2.3 2. 4. 4.1 5.6 5.9 2 1 26.5 23.8 23.2 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
U.S. Hard Red Winter 45 4 35 3 2.4 18. 25 2 15 1 5 1.1 1.8 16. 15.8 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring 25 2 15 1 5 1.5 6.2 6.4 15.9 7.8 5.2 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter 2 15 7.9 1 7.9 5 2.4 3.1 5.9 5.6 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White 12 1 8 7. 7.3 6 5.3 5.4 4 2 2.9 2.4 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum 5 4 3 1.4 1.1 2 1.5 2. 1.5.8 1. 1. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) 4. 3. 2. 1.. HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report August 9, 218.
18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks 16. 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6 Production 2.4 18. 1.5 15.9 7.9 7.9 Imports.2.3 2.4 1.8.1.3 Supply Total 36.6 34.1 19.3 22.8 13.9 13.8 Domestic Use 1.7 12.6 7.8 7.9 5.9 5.8 Exports 1.1 1.8 6.2 7.8 2.4 3.1 Use Total 2.8 23.4 14.1 15.7 8.3 9. Ending Stocks 15.8 1.7 5.2 7.1 5.6 4.8 Stocks-to-Use 76% 46% 37% 45% 67% 54%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1. 1. 32.1 29.9 Production 7. 7.3 1.5 2. 47.4 51.1 Imports.2.3 1.4 1.1 4.3 3.7 Supply Total 1.1 9.9 3.9 4.1 83.8 84.7 Domestic Use 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.3 31.4 Exports 5.3 5.4.5.8 24.5 27.9 Use Total 7.7 8. 2.9 3.2 53.8 59.3 Ending Stocks 2.4 1.9 1..8 29.9 25.4 Stocks-to-Use 31% 24% 34% 26% 56% 43%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 4 35 3 $/Metric Ton 25 2 15 1 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 3 $/Metric Ton 25 2 15 1 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices 3 28 26 24 $/Metric Ton 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton 1 5-5 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton 15 1 5 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production 75 3.5 3.6 Production () and Harvested Area (mh) 65 55 45 35 25 3.1 3.2 2.9 51.1 47.4 15.2 16. 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 MT/hectares 15 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison 45. 4. 38.8 38.1 36.5 36.1 Million Hectares 35. 3. 25. 3.9 33.8 36.5 36.3 2. 15. 23. 22.4 2.6 18.5 19.1 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
World Wheat Production, Use and Trade 8 2 75 173 183 183 184 19 18 Production and Use () 7 65 6 735 711 752 758 739 742 744 73 17 16 15 14 13 Trade () 55 12 11 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1
World Corn Production, Use and Trade 12 18 Production and Use () 1 8 6 4 973 12 97 179 16 161 147 16 133 168 161 199 16 14 12 1 8 6 Trade () 4 2 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 Production and Use () 35 3 25 2 15 1 314 133 314 348 147 329 154 158 337 338 367 354 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Trade () 5 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains 7 6 5 $/metric ton 4 3 2 1 PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years EU wheat production to fall to 138, 9% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.1, 9% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 259, still 9% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in Russia to fall to 4.82, 35% below the 5-year average, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 25.4, down 15% from 217/18, if realized World consumption and trade expected to hit new records in 218/19 Algerian 218/19 wheat imports to fall to 7.2, down 12% year over year U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized