PNS Soybean Workgroup 12 April 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager
Supply & Demand (National vs. International) Soybean: Supply and dem and (RSA vs International) SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Final: Projection: Mar - Feb 2015/16 (c) Projection: 2016/17 (c) 2014/15 (d) 2015/16 (d) '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks 63.7 88.9 61.7 77.1 Production 1042.1 659.8 318.6 320.2 Imports 125.0 250.0 122.1 128.2 Processed 1 146.7 (b) 929.0 (b) 299.4 315.7 Exports 4.5 4.5 125.9 130.9 Closing stocks 90.0 (a) 59.1 (a) 77.1 78.9 (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Excluding producer withdrawals, seed and end users (c) Source: SAGIS 29 Mar '16 & NAMC: S&DEC - 1 Apr '16 (d) Source: USDA - 7 Apr '16
Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries RSA Production vs Deliveries Soybean 2015/16 2014/15 Ton Ton CEC Production 691 750 * 1 070 000 948 000 SAGIS Deliveries 1 042 129 919 723 Difference 691 750 27 871 28 277 * CEC Third Forecast 2016/17 Ton
Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est, Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries Yield 1 200 000 SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC 2.50 1 000 000 2.00 800 000 1.50 600 000 1.00 400 000 200 000 0.50 0 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj. 0.00
Imports & Exports Summarised info Soybean Marketing year Import Export Ton 2013/14 3 256 15 390 2014/15 102 977 576 *2015/16 124 981 4 677 Source: SAGIS
Imports & Exports Soybeans: Imports for RSA 2015/16 season Month Brazil Ethiopia Malawi Paraguay Zambia Month Total Progressive Total Mar-15 0 0 150 26 902 470 27 522 27 522 Apr-15 0 0 120 32 795 64 32 979 60 501 May-15 0 0 90 0 146 236 60 737 Jun-15 0 0 0 0 991 991 61 728 Jul-15 0 0 56 0 0 56 61 784 Aug-15 59 768 0 446 0 98 60 312 122 096 Sep-15 71 328 0 0 354 753 122 849 Oct-15 159 660 0 0 90 909 123 758 Nov-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 123 758 Dec-15 0 660 0 0 390 1 050 124 808 Jan-16 0 0 0 0 173 173 124 981 Feb-16 0 0 0 0 0 0 124 981 TOTAL 2015/16 59 998 1 648 862 59 697 2 776 124 981 Source: SAGIS Ton
Imports & Exports Soybeans: Exports for RSA 2015/16 season Month Botwana Mozambique Month Total Progressive Total Ton Mar-15 0 127 127 127 Apr-15 0 132 132 259 May-15 0 78 78 337 Jun-15 0 837 837 1 174 Jul-15 4 959 963 2 137 Aug-15 0 1 014 1 014 3 151 Sep-15 0 664 664 3 815 Oct-15 0 166 166 3 981 Nov-15 2 128 130 4 111 Dec-15 0 62 62 4 173 Jan-16 0 123 123 4 296 Feb-16 214 167 381 4 677 TOTAL 2015/16 220 4 457 4 677 Source: SAGIS
Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton 300000 SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports Source: S&DEC 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
Imports & Exports per marketing year S&DEC: Soybeans Imported 2015/16 180 000 S&DEC: Soybeans Imported 2015/16 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Imports & Exports SARS Imports to RSA 2015/16 season Imports Tariff Line 1201.90 Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Botswana 27.940 146.13 5 230.14 Brazil 60 308.290 300 057.76 4 975.40 Canada 0.103 2.42 23 495.15 China 4.826 46.22 9 577.29 Ethiopia 480.650 2 312.65 4 811.51 Hong Kong 0.019 2.18 114 736.84 India 0.100 1.61 16 100.00 Japan 0.003 0.05 16 666.67 Malawi 892.000 6 918.08 7 755.70 Netherlands 0.050 2.70 54 000.00 Paraguay 60 001.795 285 755.69 4 762.45 Swaziland 0.005 0.21 42 000.00 Taiwan, Prov of China 0.042 0.22 5 238.10 Tanzania 0.003 0.58 193 333.33 Thailand 0.171 3.61 21 111.11 Uganda 0.001 0.59 590 000.00 United Kingdom 153.123 2 123.89 13 870.48 Zambia 2 895.238 21 271.00 7 346.89 Total 124 764.359 618 645.590 4 958.51 Source: SARS
Imports & Exports SARS Exports from RSA 2015/16 season Exports Tariff Line 1201.90 Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Angola 0.002 0.040 20 000.00 Botswana 38.518 328.090 8 517.84 Congo, Dem Rep Of 0.001 0.790 790 000.00 Ghana 0.119 1.780 14 957.98 Kenya 0.012 0.340 28 333.33 Lesotho 40.212 384.700 9 566.80 Malawi 1.000 3.000 3 000.00 Mozambique 3 710.916 20 095.940 5 415.36 Nigeria 12.094 164.650 13 614.19 Namibia 2.467 27.740 11 244.43 Saint Helena 0.001 0.050 50 000.00 Swaziland 43.131 478.280 11 089.01 Togo 1.482 145.920 98 461.54 Zambia 0.030 8.400 280 000.00 Zimbabwe 58.405 824.050 14 109.24 Total 3 908.390 22 463.770 5 747.58 Source: SARS
Processed & Consumption Processed Soybeans Processed 2015/16 * 2014/15 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption 10 24 323 9 25 319 Animal Feed 30 121 763 34 118 598 Oil and Oilcake 15 988 024 15 861 631 Source: SAGIS 1 134 110 1 005 548
Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Processed 1 400 000 Soybeans: Processed 2015/16 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Crushed 1 200 000 Soybeans: Crushed 2015/16 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Animal Feed 160 000 S&DEC: Soybeans Animal Feed 2015/16 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Consumption Ton 1200000 SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
Opening & Ending Stocks Ton 250000 SOYBEANS: Stock Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
Opening & Ending Stocks SOYBEANS: 2015/16 Season - Mar 2015 to Feb 2016-1 200 000 1 070 000 1 042 129 1 134 110 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 124 981 0 4 677 CEC (Crop Estimate) Prod deliveries Imports Processed* Exports
Price Movements Soybeans: Local prices (SAFEX) SAFEX: Latest prices vs previous prices: Soybeans Future prices for: 2016/04/05 2016/03/04 2015/04/07 Price % Month Price % Year Price R/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton May 2016 5924.00 0.49 5895.00 25.83 4708.00 Jul 2016 6000.00 0.84 5950.00 25.60 4777.00 Source: SAFEX
Price movements Indicative import parity prices Soybeans: Im port Parity Price Argentinia 2016/04/05 Soybeans Up River $/t FOB value $/t 337.00 Freight rate 19.00 Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.01 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t 357.01 Converted to R/t: R/t Exhange R/$ 15.0762 Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t 5382.35 Financing cost 46.45 Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t 5428.80 Discharge cost - Durban 158.90 Import tariff 406.45 Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban 5994.15 Railage: Durban - Randfontein 432.09 DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein 6426.24 Delievered: Durban - Randfontein (2015/04/07) 5582.65 Source: IGC - Grain Market Report
Price movements International prices (CBOT) CBOT: Latest Soybean prices vs previous prices Contract: 2016/04/05 2016/03/04 2015/04/07 Price % Month Price % Year Price $/Ton on Month $/Ton on Year $/Ton May '16 332.38 2.98 322.76-6.84 356.78 July '16 335.32 3.19 324.96-6.52 358.69 Source: CBOT
Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEAN OILCAKE 2304.00 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 547 685 952 332 1 238 308 2 210 327.70 5 114 258.06 6 092 725.67 Value per ton R/Ton 4 035.76 5 370.25 4 920.20 SOYBEAN OILCAKE 2304.00 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 80 818 46 881 21 543 527 437.21 301 208.00 107 564.31 Value per ton R/Ton 6 526.19 6 424.93 4 992.93 Source: SARS
Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL 1507.10 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 42 501 29 265 38 436 384 055.55 275 630.44 375 791.35 Value per ton R/Ton 9 036.29 9 418.41 9 777.04 SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL 1507.10 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 40 667 32 577 12 806 508 802.28 390 850.56 161 770.27 Value per ton R/Ton 12 511.38 11 997.90 12 632.68 Source: SARS
Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEANS OIL OTHER 1507.90 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 131 965 128 242 165 515 1 270 946.40 1 302 828.61 1 668 245.30 Value per ton R/Ton 9 630.91 10 159.18 10 079.09 SOYBEANS OIL OTHER 1507.90 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R'000 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Mar '15 - Jan '16 39 944 50 104 48 803 507 456.58 614 253.55 604 407.47 Value per ton R/Ton 12 704.24 12 259.54 12 384.72 Source: SARS
Price Movements Products: Year on year price changes February 2016 2015 2014 Price % Year Price % Year Price % Year R on Year R on Year R on Year Brick Margarine 500g 20.79 8.96 19.08 6.65 17.89 7.71 Peanut Butter 400g 22.52-0.49 22.63 2.35 22.11 0.59 Sunflow er Oil 750ml 22.03 28.01 17.21-1.15 17.41 0.46 Source: SA Statistics
Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Rand Price Movements Products: prices 25.00 22.50 20.00 Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS 17.50 15.00 12.50 10.00 7.50 5.00 2.50
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 % Price Movements Products: Index 250 200 Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX 150 100 50 0
Soybean: Co-workers Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders 31 28.2% Storers 16 14.5% Harbour silo owners 12 10.9% Processors 51 46.4% Total firms: 109 Composition of co-workers - On 28 February 2015 - Storers 37 Harboursilo Ow ners 16 Traders 76 Processors 499 Total: 628
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