Rice Outlook Slide Show U.S. and World August 10, PDF Free Download

Rice Outlook Slide Show U.S. and World August 10, 2017 Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service University of Arkansas System 501.671.2195 recoats@uark.edu 1

World Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10, 2017 3

World Rice Area Harvested 1988/89-2017/18 165 146.6 147.8 147.0 147.6 146.4 145.3 147.3 148.3 150.2 151.7 153.3 152.8 151.6 147.7 149.5 151.4 155.9 154.2 154.3 155.0 158.5 155.8 158.2 160.1 158.7 161.4 160.6 158.9 160.0 161.8 161.8 161.9 161.8 160 155 150 145 140 135 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr Million of Hectares 2017/18 world rice acreage at 161.8 million hectares slightly below last month s 161.9, the highest on record Source: USDA 6

World Rice Yield (Rough) 1988/89-2017/18 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 17 Apr 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Metric Tons World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare, below 2016/17 period s 4.5, but consistent with previous 6 periods Source: USDA 7

World Rice Rough Production 1988/89-2017/18 490.8 510.3 519.4 522.9 524.0 526.1 539.9 547.3 563.8 575.3 587.0 608.8 594.0 594.3 563.0 585.4 596.4 622.3 625.0 643.6 669.6 655.2 671.5 696.8 704.6 713.3 713.3 703.4 721.7 717.8 717.4 721.4 719.9 750 700 650 600 550 500 Million of Metric Tons 450 World rice rough production at 719.9 million metric tons is 1.8 million metric tons below 2016/17 and the 2 nd highest on record 400 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr 8 Source: USDA

World Rice Milled Production 1988/89-2017/18 332.1 345.3 351.4 353.3 353.9 354.7 364.1 368.8 380.4 387.4 394.9 409.3 399.2 399.5 378.2 392.5 400.8 417.9 420.1 433.6 449.9 440.0 450.0 467.4 472.5 478.3 478.4 471.9 483.9 481.3 481.0 483.7 482.6 500 450 400 350 300 Million of Metric Tons World rice milled production is the 2 nd highest on record at 482.6 million metric tons 250 200 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr 9 Source: USDA

World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 1988/89-2017/18 47.5 14.0 11.7 12.3 14.4 14.9 16.6 20.8 19.7 18.9 24.8 22.8 24.3 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.3 28.9 29.0 31.8 29.5 29.4 31.8 36.5 40.0 39.5 44.1 42.6 40.4 43.3 42.2 42.3 43.4 43.9 42.5 Million of Metric Tons 37.5 32.5 27.5 22.5 17.5 12.5 World trade at 43.9 million metric tons is the 3 nd highest on record, which in-part reflects global uncertainties 7.5 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr Source: USDA 10

World Rice Total Use 1988/89-2017/18 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 325.7 336.3 345.3 353.2 357.4 358.9 365.5 368.3 378.2 380.0 388.6 400.2 395.6 413.2 408.1 413.8 408.5 415.4 421.2 428.1 437.7 438.1 445.2 460.8 465.2 478.2 477.4 471.1 480.3 480.1 479.7 479.6 479.1 17 Feb 17 Apr 500 450 400 350 300 250 Million of Metric Tons World rice total use at 479.1 million metric tons is the 2 nd highest on record only exceeded by the previous marketing periods 480.3 million tons Source: USDA 11

World Rice Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World 483.9 482.6-1.07-1.3 United States 7.1 5.9-0.15-1.2 Foreign 476.8 476.7-0.92-0.1 Argentina 0.9 0.9 -- 0.0 Brazil 8.4 8.0 -- -0.4 Egypt 4.8 4.0 -- -0.8 Bangladesh 34.6 34.2-0.52-0.4 Burma 12.4 12.3 -- -0.1 Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1 China 144.9 145.0 -- 0.2 India 108.0 108.0 -- -- Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1 Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2 Sri Lanka 2.3 2.9-0.40 0.6 Pakistan 6.8 6.9 -- 0.1 Philippines 11.5 11.2 -- -0.3 Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2 Vietnam 28.0 28.5 -- 0.5 -- No change August 10, 2017

World Rice Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks 115.8 119.4 0.90 3.6 Production 483.9 482.6-1.07-1.3 Total Supply 599.7 602.0-0.18 2.3 Total use 480.3 479.1-0.57-1.3 Trade 43.1 43.7 0.50 0.6 Ending Stocks 119.4 122.9 0.40 3.5 August 10, 2017

U.S. Long-Grain Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10, 2017 17

The long grain rice season-average farm price range is $11.50 - $12.50 per cwt or $5.18 - $5.63 per bus 18

U.S. Long Grain Rice Planted Acres 1972/73 2017/18 916,800 1,063,500 1,384,500 1,460,300 1,536,000 1,473,000 1,559,000 1,942,000 1,955,000 2,215,000 2,501,000 2,199,000 2,113,000 1,957,000 1,822,000 1,714,000 2,257,000 2,031,000 2,129,000 2,113,000 2,408,000 2,102,000 2,410,000 2,335,000 1,983,000 2,327,000 2,589,000 2,731,000 2,206,000 2,713,000 2,537,000 2,332,000 2,587,000 2,751,000 2,200,000 2,063,000 2,365,000 2,290,000 2,841,000 1,794,000 1,994,000 1,781,000 2,211,000 1,879,000 2,442,000 1,909,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 2017 long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 22% below 2016 5 year average 2,044,400 acres 10 year average 2,150,600 acres 15 year average 2,229,267 acres 0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: USDA 20

U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 2017/18 60 Million hundredweight 10.1 17.6 16.4 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 15.1 14.4 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 10.3 15.7 16.2 19.1 19.1 20.0 21.6 22.7 23.0 25.8 24.3 21.9 22.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 28.5 32.7 28.7 27.7 31.5 31.3 35.6 37.7 49.3 50 2017/18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 31.3 million cwt. Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt. Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt. 40 30 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 22

U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 2017/18 200 64.3 93.4 96.0 100.4 96.8 89.0 119.4 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 116.4 128.8 131.9 133.4 151.9 167.6 157.2 149.0 170.4 177.5 147.1 143.2 153.3 152.7 183.3 144.3 142.0 142.0 136.4 132.4 162.7 166.5 180 160 140 120 100 Million hundredweight 80 60 40 20 2017/18 long grain rice production is estimated at 132.4 million cwt 20.5% below 2016/17 5 year average 148 million cwt 10 year average 149 million cwt 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 23

250 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 2017/18 90.7 111.5 113.8 119.1 140.1 148.5 141.9 128.6 125.3 125.3 146.4 130.6 155.4 142.5 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.1 188.3 194.1 174.5 191.3 194.0 189.4 188.2 189.3 212.5 168.9 187.3 174.2 200.6 180.7 209.3 191.7 190.7 188.9 184.7 222.2 200 150 Million hundredweight 100 50 2017/18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 184.7 million cwt. 12-percent below 2016/17 5 year average 190 million cwt. 10 year average 191 million cwt. 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 25

U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 2017/18 120 29.5 34.1 38.7 48.8 51.2 49.5 55.5 54.5 52.2 56.8 55.0 58.4 59.6 61.3 59.7 66.9 76.7 76.2 87.6 87.7 78.9 83.4 84.7 87.9 78.0 82.1 93.4 91.3 91.9 89.6 96.1 100.1 100.0 95.0 95.0 92.0 90.0 108.6 106.2 100 80 Million hundredweight 60 40 20 2017/18 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 90 million cwt, 9 th largest on record 5 year average 95 million cwt. 10 year average 94.5 million cwt. 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 26

U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 2017/18 120 Million hundredweight 47.0 44.8 42.0 42.0 50.5 60.8 61.6 55.6 57.0 57.4 61.9 65.5 65.3 69.9 71.0 69.8 72.3 71.4 70.3 68.0 66.7 68.0 73.8 72.0 81.4 80.7 83.8 79.1 74.3 78.0 75.8 75.9 78.0 76.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 92.0 99.5 100 80 60 40 20 2017/18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 77 million cwt, 1 million cwt. below last year 5 year average 72 10 year average 73 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 27

U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 2017/18 74.3 76.1 85.7 90.8 100.0 121.1 126.5 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.4 141.0 132.4 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 141.5 161.6 144.7 164.2 168.5 165.4 170.4 168.1 166.2 178.4 179.8 165.4 158.0 174.2 158.0 178.0 171.0 172.0 169.0 167.0 186.5 200 180 160 140 120 100 Million hundredweight 80 60 40 2017/18 long grain rice total use is estimated at 167 million cwt. 11 million cwt below 2016/17 5 year average 166.7 million cwt. 10 year average 167 million cwt. 20 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 28

U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 2017/18 60 Million hundredweight 10.1 10.3 16.4 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 15.1 14.4 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 15.7 16.2 19.1 19.0 20.1 21.6 20.7 18.7 19.9 17.7 22.7 23.0 24.3 21.9 22.7 25.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 28.5 32.7 31.3 35.6 37.7 49.3 50 40 2017/18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 17.7 million cwt. 43.5-percent below 2016/17, 2 nd lowest in the previous 13 marketing periods 5 year average 23 million cwt. 10 year average 24 million cwt. 30 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 29

U.S. Medium & Short-Grain Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10, 2017 30

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 2017/18 6.8 9.0 10.8 10.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 12.1 12.3 15.8 15.8 14.3 10.4 15.6 10.7 9.3 12.4 13.8 9.4 10.0 9.1 8.0 12.0 10.1 14.7 12.2 13.3 11.8 11.8 16.6 15.6 21.1 20.2 20.9 25.7 26.2 28.8 30.2 44.7 50 45 Million hundredweight 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 33

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 1982/83 2017/18 80 Million hundredweight 35.4 34.5 36.6 40.6 40.5 42.8 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 45.1 47.7 45.7 47.5 52.1 54.2 53.7 50.9 50.5 55.2 58.0 58.5 60.2 59.8 55.7 58.1 59.6 59.7 57.7 59.0 59.0 54.9 54.0 62.1 61.9 64.3 67.1 68.6 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 34

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 2017/18 100 50.8 55.6 61.7 61.8 63.5 60.5 62.4 64.9 59.6 63.3 67.1 68.9 66.2 64.7 63.4 61.9 73.5 71.2 75.1 69.7 73.3 71.9 70.8 69.9 69.0 74.8 73.1 76.8 72.5 72.9 76.1 80.2 78.6 81.7 82.2 81.8 78.6 77.6 90.6 90 80 70 60 50 Million hundredweight 40 30 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 36

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 2017/18 50 18.8 24.2 26.0 27.7 26.4 26.9 27.7 31.0 31.5 34.3 35.5 34.5 32.4 34.6 36.1 27.5 32.5 28.4 32.8 29.4 28.2 28.3 30.3 32.0 30.0 30.0 28.0 27.5 39.0 38.6 39.6 37.7 37.4 38.0 40.3 41.8 41.9 41.3 44.2 45 40 35 30 25 Million hundredweight 20 15 10 5 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 37

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 2017/18 9.8 10.9 9.5 14.3 16.7 14.9 16.3 15.4 15.4 17.5 17.7 20.1 19.4 18.6 17.9 18.8 21.9 21.7 20.9 20.9 22.3 22.9 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.7 30.8 31.4 31.0 32.0 32.0 34.1 34.6 34.2 34.0 35.0 38.0 40 Million hundredweight 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 38

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 2017/18 80 Million hundredweight 35.5 40.7 41.8 44.0 46.1 51.4 47.8 48.8 49.5 49.0 52.7 52.8 52.9 55.4 61.3 59.4 61.2 59.6 59.2 56.4 59.6 53.9 55.2 53.4 53.9 56.0 63.0 61.8 66.6 63.0 67.0 60.3 59.6 61.3 60.0 59.5 64.0 65.0 70.0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 39

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 2017/18 6.8 9.0 10.8 10.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 12.1 12.3 15.8 15.8 14.3 10.4 15.6 10.7 9.3 12.4 13.8 9.4 10.0 9.1 8.0 12.0 10.1 14.7 12.2 13.3 9.9 9.5 11.8 14.6 12.6 21.1 20.2 20.9 25.7 26.2 28.8 44.7 50 45 Million hundredweight 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 40

U.S. All Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10, 2017 41

U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1950/51 2017/18 1,653,200 2,031,400 2,041,000 2,204,200 2,605,000 1,846,400 1,602,500 1,370,200 1,439,000 1,607,300 1,614,000 1,618,000 1,788,700 1,785,000 1,796,800 1,803,800 1,980,300 1,982,200 2,366,600 2,140,600 1,825,800 1,826,000 1,824,000 2,181,300 2,550,000 2,833,000 2,489,000 2,261,000 2,993,000 2,890,000 3,380,000 3,827,000 3,295,000 2,190,000 2,830,000 2,512,000 2,381,000 2,356,000 2,933,000 2,731,000 2,897,000 2,884,000 3,176,000 2,920,000 3,353,000 3,121,000 2,824,000 3,125,000 3,285,000 3,531,000 3,060,000 3,334,000 3,240,000 3,022,000 3,347,000 3,384,000 2,838,000 2,761,000 2,995,000 3,135,000 3,636,000 2,689,000 2,700,000 2,490,000 2,954,000 2,625,000 3,150,000 2,560,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 17 Million acres 43

U.S. All Rice Yield 1950/51 2017/18 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 2,371 2,309 2,413 2,447 2,517 3,061 3,152 3,204 3,164 3,382 3,423 3,411 3,726 3,968 4,098 4,255 4,322 4,537 4,425 4,318 4,617 4,718 4,700 4,275 4,440 4,558 4,663 4,412 4,484 4,599 4,413 4,819 4,710 4,598 4,9545,413 5,651 5,555 5,514 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,496 6,578 6,670 6,988 6,636 6,898 7,219 6,846 7,085 6,725 7,0677,463 12 14 16 17 7,694 7,576 7,472 7,237 7,513 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Pounds per acre 44

U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 5.1 7.8 7.1 11.4 16.4 18.6 16.5 27.4 31.6 25.7 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 31.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 26.8 23.7 36.9 40.5 24.5 30.4 36.5 31.8 39.4 39.0 37.7 43.0 39.3 36.4 41.1 49.0 46.9 48.5 48.5 46.5 48.1 46.1 46.1 45.9 51.4 64.7 71.5 77.3 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Million hundredweight 45

U.S. All Rice Production 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 83.8 85.8 85.4 92.8 112.4128.4 99.2 99.7 115.6 133.2 131.9 146.2 182.7 138.8 134.9 133.4 129.6 153.6 159.9 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 215.3 211.0 199.9 232.4 223.2 194.6 198.4 203.7 219.9 243.1 184.9 199.9 190.0 193.1 201.0 201.0 191.3 186.5 222.2 224.1 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Million hundredweight 46

U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.2 6.9 8.1 7.7 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.9 13.2 14.8 15.0 13.2 17.1 20.6 19.2 19.0 18.3 19.4 21.1 23.9 23.1 24.6 24.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.2 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Million hundredweight 47

U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 101.6 105.5 97.3 98.1 120.2135.5 152.5 139.8 160.7 163.6 172.1 199.6 203.3 172.1 187.3 201.8 213.3 184.0 195.1 185.6 187.2 189.3 213.2 202.5 231.6 212.9 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 229.2 256.9 264.8 214.9 269.2 278.1 258.2 261.6 252.4 269.3 297.9 252.8 262.1 249.5 278.7 265.8 293.9 273.1 271.1 261.6 256.6 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Million hundredweight 48

U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1970/71 2017/18 160 Million hundredweight 36.5 37.2 38.2 40.6 43.6 42.1 46.4 39.6 53.4 55.3 64.2 68.6 62.9 54.9 60.565.8 77.6 80.4 82.4 82.2 91.2 95.3 94.6 100.3 101.5 104.6 101.6 103.9 114.0121.9 117.5 123.3 113.4 115.0 122.7 120.2 128.1 127.4 127.6 124.4 136.9 110.8 119.0 124.4 134.4 112.4 132.0 125.0 125.0 120.0 117.5 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 49

U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 46.5 56.9 54.0 49.7 69.5 56.5 65.672.8 62.1 58.7 68.9 70.3 75.7 82.6 91.4 72.2 82.0 77.1 71.4 66.5 79.2 76.4 84.2 85.9 83.2 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.8 83.2 90.8 94.7 94.4 93.3 95.7 98.8 103.1 108.8114.9 104.7 108.4 112.6 100.9 106.6 107.0 116.0 110.0 112.0 109.0 109.0 124.6 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Million hundredweight 50

U.S. All Rice Total Use 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 83.0 94.1 92.2 90.3 113.1 98.6 112.0 112.4 129.1 137.9 155.6 150.6 131.8 125.2 122.6 124.5 161.8 152.6 168.3 159.3 162.6 161.9 173.8 176.7 200.3 187.8 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.7 218.0238.0 218.0 231.5 235.1 218.8 232.2 222.0 232.8 249.5 211.7 225.7 217.7 230.2 219.3 248.0 235.0 237.0 229.0 226.5 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Million hundredweight 51

U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1970/71 2017/18 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 5.1 7.8 7.1 11.4 18.6 16.5 27.4 31.6 25.7 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 25.8 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 26.8 23.7 31.4 31.3 36.9 40.5 39.4 39.0 37.7 49.0 46.9 43.0 39.3 29.4 30.4 36.5 48.5 31.8 36.4 38.1 34.1 32.6 30.1 41.1 48.5 46.5 45.9 51.4 64.7 71.5 77.3 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Million hundredweight 52

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch August 10, 2017 12:00 P.M.

Contents Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops Corn Peaches Dry Beans Soybeans Apples Tobacco Cotton Pears Sugarbeets Wheat Grapes Sugarcane Oats Cranberries Hops Barley Summer Potatoes Sorghum Alfalfa & Other Hay Rice Peanuts USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Survey Overview Ag Yield Objective Yield Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat Sample Size 21,654 4,544 Collection Period July 29 Aug 4 July 25 Aug 1 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Corn Planted Mil Ac 90.9 NC -3.3 Harvested Mil Ac 83.5 NC -3.7 Yield Bu/Ac 169.5 NA -2.9 Production Bil Bu 14.2 NA -6.6 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Billion Bushels 16.0 Corn for Grain Production United States 15.1 14.0 13.0 13.1 13.8 14.2 13.6 14.2 12.0 10.0 9.21 9.76 9.43 9.92 9.50 8.97 10.1 11.8 11.1 10.5 12.0 12.4 12.3 10.8 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Bushels per Acre 180.0 Corn for Grain Yield United States 170.0 160.0 169.5 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Lbs/Ear 0.370 Corn Objective Yield Region Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight 0.360 0.350 0.340 0.330 0.320 2005 2006 2004 2007 2008 2010 2009 2016 2013 Aug 17 2014 2015 0.310 2011 0.300 0.290 0.280 0.270 2012 0.260 25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 Ears Per Acre 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Soybeans Planted Mil Ac 89.5 NC +7.3 Harvested Mil Ac 88.7 NC +7.2 Yield Bu/Ac 49.4 NA -5.2 Production Bil Bu 4.38 NA +1.7 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Billion Bushels 5.00 Soybean Production United States 4.50 4.31 4.38 4.00 3.93 3.93 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.69 2.74 2.65 2.76 2.89 2.76 2.45 3.12 3.07 3.20 2.68 2.97 3.36 3.33 3.10 3.04 3.36 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Bushels per Acre 55.0 Soybean Yield United States 50.0 49.4 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season All Cotton Planted Mil Ac 12.1 NC +19.7 Harvested Mil Ac 11.1 NA +16.3 Yield Lb/Ac 892 NA +2.9 Production Mil Bls 20.5 NA +19.7 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Million Acres 18.0 All Cotton Acres United States 16.0 14.0 12.0 12.1 11.1 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Planted Harvested USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Million Bales 30.0 All Cotton Production United States 25.0 23.3 23.9 20.0 15.0 18.8 13.9 17.0 17.2 20.3 17.2 18.3 21.6 19.2 12.8 12.2 18.1 15.6 17.3 12.9 16.3 12.9 17.2 20.5 10.0 5.0 0.0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Pounds peracre 950 All Cotton Yield United States 900 892 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Winter Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 25.8 NC -14.8 Yield Bu/Ac 50.0 +0.6-9.6 Production Bil Bu 1.29 +0.6-23.0 Other Spring Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 10.5 NC -7.1 Yield Bu/Ac 38.3-5.0-18.9 Production Mil Bu 402-5.0-24.8 Durum Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 1.86 NC -21.4 Yield Bu/Ac 27.2-12.0-38.2 Production Mil Bu 50.5-12.1-51.5 All Wheat Production Bil Bu 1.74-1.2-24.7 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Grams/Head 0.700 0.690 0.680 0.670 0.660 0.650 0.640 0.630 0.620 0.610 0.600 0.590 0.580 0.570 0.560 0.550 0.540 0.530 2014 Wheat Objective Yield Region Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight 2004 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 2010 2008 2009 2006 2011 2007 2015 2012 2005 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Heads Per Square Foot Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006) 2013 2016 45 46 47 48 49 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Oats Mil Bu 53.7 +0.1-17.1 Barley Mil Bu 140-1.9-29.6 Sorghum Mil Bu 369 NA -23.1 Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 56.2 NA -3.6 Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 NA -0.1 Rice Mil Cwt 186 NA -16.8 Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.43 NA +30.7 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season All Tobacco Mil Lbs 695 NA +10.5 Dry Beans Mil Cwt 34.2 NA +19.2 Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.3 NA -1.5 Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.8 NA -0.9 Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 20.2 NA +3.3 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Peaches Thou Tons 735 NA -7.6 Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA -7.4 Pears Thou Tons 707 NA -4.3 Grapes Mil Tons 7.51 NA -2.1 Hops Mil Lbs 97.6 NA +12.0 Cranberries Mil Bbls 9.05 NA -6.0 USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Upcoming Reports Release Date August 25 August 30 August 31 September 1 September 12 Report Title Cattle on Feed Rice Stocks Agricultural Prices Citrus Fruits CAIR: Cotton CAIR: Fats & Oils CAIR: Grain Crushings Cotton Ginnings Crop Production USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions 202-720-2127 800-727-9540 nass@nass.usda.gov

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of August 10, 2017 Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service

Links to the latest WASDE related publications Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

World Wheat Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World 755.0 743.2 5.4-11.8 United States 62.9 47.3-0.6-15.5 Foreign 692.1 695.9 5.9 3.7 Argentina 17.5 17.5 -- 0.0 Canada 31.7 26.5-1.9-5.2 Australia 35.1 23.5 -- -11.6 European Union 145.7 149.6-0.4 3.9 Turkey 17.3 19.5 -- 2.3 Russia 72.5 77.5 5.5 5.0 Ukraine 26.8 26.5 2.5-0.3 Kazakhstan 15.0 14.0 1.0-1.0 China 128.9 130.0 -- 1.2 India 87.0 96.0 -- 9.0 August 10, 2017

Central Volga Southern N. Caucasus August 10, 2017

Russia Central Volga 200% Ukraine 175% 150% Southern 100% 125% 150% N. Caucasus An active weather pattern brought beneficial spring rain to Russia s winter wheat areas. Winter Wheat August 10, 2017

Russia Central Volga Ukraine Southern Conversely, dry weather during July across southwestern Russia favored winter wheat drydown and harvesting. N. Caucasus Winter Wheat August 10, 2017

Urals Russia Volga Siberia Kazakhstan August 10, 2017

WMO CPC Volga 150% Urals 100% 80% Russia 100% 70% 100% Siberia 150% 100% Kazakhstan The 60 day rainfall map indicates most spring wheat areas received near to above normal rainfall since early June, ensuring favorable moisture supplies as crops progressed through reproduction. Spring Wheat August 10, 2017

Urals Russia Siberia Volga Kazakhstan The latest VHI depicts good to excellent conditions for Flowering (north) to Filling (south/east) spring wheat. Spring Wheat August 10, 2017

Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Estimated production is increased from 72.0 to 77.5 mmt based on harvest reports from the winter wheat zone and higher estimated yield in the spring wheat zone. 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) 25 20 15 10 5 Kazakhstan Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Forecast wheat production is increased from 13.0 to 14.0 mmt based on NDVI based yield forecasts. Estimated area is down 7% from last year and yield is virtually unchanged. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) 30 25 20 15 10 5 Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Estimated production is increased from 24.0 to 26.5 mmt based on official harvest data. 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

Canadian Prairies - Durum production Durum wheat crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT HEAD HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Durum production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * 2002-2006 Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Canadian Prairies - Spring Wheat production Spring wheat crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT HEAD HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Spring Wheat production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * 2002-2006 Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Canadian Prairies - Canola production Canola crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT FLOWER HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Canola production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * 2002-2006 Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Wheat and Rapeseed fields in Southern Manitoba August 10, 2017

Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Flooded soybean field outside Ottawa, Ontario Based on conversations with farmers and industry experts in Canada, crops are 2 4 weeks behind schedule. August 10, 2017

World Wheat Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Million Tons Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Beginning stocks 242.9 258.6 0.5 15.7 Production 755.0 743.2 5.4-11.8 Total Supply 997.9 1,001.8 5.9 3.9 Feed use 146.9 140.6 1.3-6.2 Total use 739.3 737.1 1.8-2.2 Trade 182.3 179.9 1.5-2.3 Ending Stocks 258.6 264.7 4.1 6.1 August 10, 2017

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Planted area (million acres) 50.2 45.7 -- -4.5 Harvested area (million acres) 43.9 38.1 -- -5.8 Yield (bushels per acre) 52.6 45.6-0.5-7.0 Million bushels Beginning stocks 976 1,184 -- 209 Production 2,310 1,739-21 -570 Imports 118 150 10 32 Total supply 3,403 3,074-11 -330 Food use 949 950-5 1 Seed 61 66 -- 5 Feed and residual 154 150 -- -4 Domestic use 1,164 1,166-5 2 Exports 1,055 975 -- -80 Total use 2,219 2,141-5 -78 Ending stocks 1,184 933-6 -252 Percent Stocks to use ratio 53.4 43.6-0.2-9.8 Dollars per bushel Average market price 3.89 4.40/5.20 -- 0.91 -- No change August 10, 2017

U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Planted area (million acres) 3.15 2.56 -- -0.59 Harvested area (million acres) 3.10 2.48 -- -0.62 Yield (pounds per acre) 7,237 7,513-194 276 Million cwt Beginning stocks 46.5 45.9-0.2-0.6 Production 224.1 186.5-4.8-37.7 Imports 23.3 24.2 -- 0.9 Total supply 293.9 256.6-5.0-37.3 Domestic use 132.0 117.5-2.5-14.5 Exports 116.0 109.0 -- -7.0 Total use 248.0 226.5-2.5-21.5 Ending stocks 45.9 30.1-2.5-15.8 Percent Stocks to use ratio 18.5 13.3-1.0-5.2 Dollars per cwt Average market price 10.30 12.20/13.20 0.40 2.40 -- No change August 10, 2017

World Corn Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July 12 2017/18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World 1,070.5 1.72 1,033.5-3.43-37.0 United States 384.8 -- 359.5-2.59-25.3 Foreign 685.7 1.72 674.0-0.83-11.8 Argentina 41.0 -- 40.0 -- -1.0 Brazil 98.5 1.50 95.0 -- -3.5 Mexico 27.4 -- 25.0 -- -2.4 Canada 13.2 -- 13.9-0.50 0.7 European Union 61.1 0.43 60.0-1.59-1.1 Serbia 7.6 -- 6.6-0.40-1.0 FSU-12 47.4 -- 49.3 0.50 1.9 Ukraine 28.0 -- 28.5 -- 0.5 Russia 15.3 -- 16.5 0.50 1.2 South Africa 16.7 0.30 12.5 -- -4.2 China 219.6 -- 215.0 -- -4.6 India 26.0 -- 25.0 -- -1.0 -- No change August 10, 2017

August 10, 2017

Better rainfall during reproduction than last year. August 10, 2017

Corn area has shown a downward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as policy changes in government support have forced farmers to switch to alternative profitable crops such as soybeans, peanuts, rice, potatoes, and silage August 10, 2017

August 10, 2017

China Corn Area and Yield Area (Million hectares) 40 35 Area Yield Yield trend Yield (MT per hectare) 6.5 6.0 30 5.5 25 5.0 20 4.5 15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4.0 August 10, 2017

August 10, 2017

12.0 Despite drier than normal weather overall, two occurrences of timely rain in July coincident with tassel and silk boosted corn yield prospects. 30y Avg 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2017 2.0 Planting Tassel/Silk August 10, 2017

Major Corn Areas The current VHI shows mostly good to excellent conditions for Ukraine corn as it approaches grain fill. Corn GIS Crop data courtesy of SAGE/Univ Wisc. August 10, 2017

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ukraine Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area (MHa) and Yield (T/Ha) Forecast production is unchanged at 28.5 mmt. Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

World Corn Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons Beginning stocks 213.5 228.6 1.10 15.1 Production 1,070.5 1,033.5-3.43-37.0 Total Supply 1,284.0 1,262.1-2.32-21.9 Feed use 630.8 651.3-0.84 20.5 Total use 1,055.4 1,061.2-2.38 5.8 Trade 162.4 152.0-0.44-10.4 Ending Stocks 228.6 200.9 0.06-27.7 August 10, 2017

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Planted area (million acres) 94.0 90.9 -- -3.1 Harvested area (million acres) 86.7 83.5 -- -3.3 Yield (bushels per acre) 174.6 169.5-1.2-5.1 Million bushels Beginning stocks 1,737 2,370 -- 633 Production 15,148 14,153-102 -995 Imports 55 50 -- -5 Total supply 16,940 16,573-102 -367 Feed and residual 5,425 5,450-25 25 Food, seed, and industrial 6,920 7,000 -- 80 Ethanol 5,450 5,500 -- 50 Domestic use 12,345 12,450-25 105 Exports 2,225 1,850-25 -375 Total use 14,570 14,300-50 -270 Ending stocks 2,370 2,273 Percent -52-97 Stocks to use ratio 16.3 15.9-0.3-0.4 Average market price 3.30/3.40 Dollars per bushel 2.90/3.70 -- -0.05 -- No change August 10, 2017

World Soybean Production Country or Region -- No change 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Million Tons Change from 2016/17 World 351.7 347.4 2.3-4.4 United States 117.2 119.2 3.3 2.0 Foreign 234.5 228.1-1.0-6.4 Argentina 57.8 57.0 -- -0.8 Brazil 114.0 107.0 -- -7.0 Paraguay 10.7 9.4 -- -1.3 Canada 6.6 8.2-0.2 1.7 India 11.5 10.0-1.5-1.5 China 12.9 14.0 -- 1.1 August 10, 2017

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2016/17 2016/17 change 2017/18 2017/18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July 12 2016/17 Planted area (million acres) 83.4 -- 89.5 -- 6.1 Harvested area (million acres) 82.7 -- 88.7 -- 6.0 Yield (bushels per acre) 52.1 -- 49.4 1.4-2.7 Million bushels Beginning stocks 197 -- 370-40 174 Production 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74 Imports 25 -- 25 -- 0 Total supply 4,528 -- 4,777 81 248 Crush 1,890-10 1,940-10 50 Seed and residual 118 -- 136 1 18 Domestic use 2,008-10 2,076-9 68 Exports 2,150 50 2,225 75 75 Total use 4,158 40 4,301 66 143 Ending stocks 370-40 475 15 105 Percent Stocks to use ratio 8.9-1.1 11.1 0.2 2.1 Average market price 9.50 -- Dollars per bushel 8.45/10.15-0.10-0.20 -- No change August 10, 2017

World Cotton Production 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from Country or Region estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Million Bales World 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8 United States 17.2 20.5 1.55 3.4 Foreign 89.3 96.8 0.40 7.4 Argentina 0.8 0.7 -- -0.1 Brazil 6.8 7.0 -- 0.2 Turkey 3.2 3.6-0.20 0.4 Australia 4.2 4.8 -- 0.6 China 22.8 24.5 0.50 1.8 India 27.0 29.0 -- 2.0 Pakistan 7.7 9.2 -- 1.5 Uzbekistan 3.7 3.7 -- 0.0 African Franc Zone 5.0 5.2 0.09 0.2 -- No change August 10, 2017

August 10, 2017

VHI also indicates good growing conditions. August 10, 2017

China Cotton Area and Yield Area (Million hectares) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Area Yield Yield trend Yield (MT per hectare) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1.0 August 10, 2017

World Cotton Supply and Use 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Million Bales Beginning stocks 97.2 90.0-0.29-7.2 Production 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8 Total Supply 203.7 207.3 1.66 3.6 Consumption 113.6 117.4 0.38 3.8 Trade 37.4 37.2 0.37-0.2 Ending Stocks 90.0 90.1 1.37 0.1 Addendum: China Ending Stocks 48.4 39.3 -- -9.1 -- No change August 10, 2017

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand 2016/17 2017/18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July 12 2016/17 Planted area (million acres) 10.07 12.06 -- 1.98 Harvested area (million acres) 9.51 11.05-0.13 1.55 Yield (pounds per acre) 867 892 76 25 Million bales Beginning stocks 3.80 2.80-0.40-1.00 Imports 0.01 0.01 -- 0.00 Production 17.17 20.55 1.55 3.38 Total supply 20.98 23.36 1.15 2.38 Mill use 3.25 3.35-0.05 0.10 Exports 14.92 14.20 0.70-0.72 Total use 18.17 17.55 0.65-0.62 Unaccounted 0.01 0.01-0.01 Ending stocks 2.80 5.80 Percent 0.50 3.00 Stocks/use 15.4 Average market price 68.00 -- No change 33.0 1.7 17.6 Cents per pound 55.0/67.0 -- -7.00 August 10, 2017

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 2016/17 2016/17 change 2017/18 2017/18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July 12 2016/17 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks 2,054 0 1,675 235-379 Production 8,848 12 8,970 232 122 Beets 4,998 10 5,068 80 70 Cane 3,850 2 3,902 152 52 Imports 3,353 222 3,631 73 278 TRQ 1,727 148 1,707 158-20 Re-export 350-25 200 25-150 Mexico 1,266 104 1,714-110 448 High-tier 10-5 10 -- 0 Total Supply 14,255 235 14,276 540 21 Exports 125 -- 25 -- -100 Domestic deliveries 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123 Total use 12,580 -- 12,603 -- 23 Ending stocks 1,675 235 1,673 540-2 Percent Stocks/use ratio 13.3 1.9 13.3 4.3 0.0 -- No change August 10, 2017

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand 2016/17 2016/17 change 2017/18 2017/18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July 12 2016/17 Thousand MT Beginning stocks 1,037 -- 981-87 -56 Production 5,957 0 6,100 -- 143 Imports 94 9 75 -- -19 Total Supply 7,088 9 7,156-87 69 Domestic use 4,858 6 4,864 6 6 Exports 1,248 89 1,476-94 228 Total Use 6,106 95 6,340-88 234 Ending stocks 981-87 816 1-165 -- No change August 10, 2017

U.S. Meat Production and Prices 2017 forecast 2017 change from July 12 2018 forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Production 26.70 0.20 Billion pounds 0.29 0.66 Beef 27.36 Pork 25.81-0.03 26.74 -- 0.93 Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79 Turkey 5.98-0.08 6.18 -- 0.20 Total meat 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58 Prices Steers 120.93-2.00 Dollars/cwt 116.25-1.75-4.68 Hogs Broilers 51.11 94.3 2.00 1.0 48.25 Cents/lb 88.5 0.75 -- -2.86-5.8 Turkey 100.4-2.5 104.5-2.0 4.1 -- No change August 10, 2017

-- No change U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds 2017 forecast 2017 change from July 12 2018 forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Exports Beef 2,784-32 2,860-10 76 Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212 Broilers 6,814-162 7,030 -- 216 Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39 Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6 Total meat 16,108-180 16,658-10 550 Imports Beef 2,832 43 2,870 -- 38 August 10, 2017

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand 2017 forecast 2017 change from July 12 2018 forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Billion pounds Production 215.7-0.6 220.3-0.9 4.6 Fat Basis Imports 6.0 0.0 5.8-0.0-0.1 Commercial use 211.9-0.6 216.2-1.3 4.2 Exports 9.3 0.2 9.2 0.2-0.1 Skim-solid Basis Imports 6.3 0.1 6.4 0.0 0.1 Commercial use 179.9 0.0 184.4-1.1 4.5 Exports 40.7-0.5 42.1 0.2 1.4 August 10, 2017

U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices 2017 forecast 2017 change from July 12 2018 forecast Dollars/pound 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Cheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09 Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06-0.01 Nonfat dry milk 0.90-0.02 0.94-0.03 0.04 Dry whey 0.46-0.02 0.46-0.03-0.00 Class prices Dollars/cwt Class III 16.00 -- 16.80-0.15 0.80 Class IV 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35 All milk 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60 -- No change August 10, 2017

U.S. Production Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July 12 2017/18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 2,310 -- 1,739-21 -570 Rice (Million cwt) 224.1 -- 186.5-4.8-37.7 Corn (Million bu) 15,148 -- 14,153-102 -995 Sorghum (Million bu) 480 -- 369 13-111 Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 140-3 -59 Oats (Million bu) 65 -- 54 0-11 Soybeans (Million bu) 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74 Soybean oil (Million lbs) 21,945-115 22,505-115 560 Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 44,361-275 46,075-225 1,714 Cotton (Million bales) 17.17 -- 20.55 1.55 3.38 Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,848 12 8,970 232 122 Milk (Billion lbs) 215.7-0.6 220.3-0.9 4.6 Meat (Billion lbs) Beef 26.70 0.20 27.36 0.29 0.66 Pork 25.81-0.03 26.74 -- 0.93 Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79 Turkey 5.98-0.08 6.18 -- 0.20 Total Meat -- No change 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58 August 10, 2017

Domestic Demand Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July 12 2017/18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 1,164 -- 1,166-5 2 Rice (Million cwt) 132.0 0.0 117.5-2.5-14.5 Corn (Million bu) 12,345 -- 12,450-25 105 Sorghum (Million bu) 240 -- 160 -- -80 Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 188 -- -11 Oats (Million bu) 156 -- 170 -- 14 Soybeans (Million bu) 2,008-10 2,076-9 68 Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,600 -- 20,450 -- 850 Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 33,050 -- 34,200 -- 1,150 Cotton (Million bales) 3.25-0.05 3.35-0.05 0.10 Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123 Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis) 211.9-0.6 216.2-1.3 4.2 Meat (Billion lbs) Beef 26.92 0.28 27.49 0.31 0.57 Pork 21.07-0.00 21.57 -- 0.50 Broilers 34.40 0.17 34.92 -- 0.52 Turkey 5.39-0.09 5.58 -- 0.19 -- No Total change meat 88.65 0.36 90.42 0.31 1.77 August 10, 2017

U.S. Export Summary Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July 12 2017/18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 1,055 -- 975 -- -80 Rice (Million cwt) 116.0 -- 109.0 -- -7.0 Corn (Million bu) 2,225 -- 1,850-25 -375 Sorghum (Million bu) 225 -- 210 10-15 Barley (Million bu) 4 -- 5 -- 1 Soybeans (Million bu) 2,150 50 2,225 75 75 Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2,400 -- 2,300 -- -100 Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,600-300 12,200-200 600 Cotton (Million bales) 14.92 0.42 14.20 0.70-0.72 Meat (Million lbs) Beef 2,784-32 2,860-10 76 Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212 Broilers 6,814-162 7,030 -- 216 Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39 Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6 Total meat 16,108-180 16,658-10 550 -- No change August 10, 2017

Price Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July 12 2017/18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) 3.89 -- 4.80 -- 0.91 Rice ($/cwt) 10.30-0.20 12.70 0.40 2.40 Corn ($/bu) 3.35 -- 3.30 -- -0.05 Soybeans ($/bu) 9.50 -- 9.30-0.10-0.20 Soybean oil ( /lb) 32.50 0.50 33.00 1.00 0.50 Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 320.00 -- 315.00-5.00-5.00 Cotton ( /lb) 68.00 -- 61.00 -- -7.00 Livestock Steers ($/cwt) 120.93-2.00 116.25-1.75-4.68 Hogs ($/cwt) 51.11 2.00 48.25 0.75-2.86 Broilers ( /lb) 94.3 1.0 88.5 -- -5.8 Turkeys ( /lb) 100.4-2.5 104.5-2.0 4.1 Dairy products Cheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09 Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06-0.01 Nonfat dry milk 0.90-0.02 0.94-0.03 0.04 Dry whey 0.46-0.02 0.46-0.03 0.00 Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) 16.00 -- 16.80-0.15 0.80 Class IV ($/cwt) 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35 All milk ($/cwt) 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60 -- No change August 10, 2017