SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES: TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS

SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES: TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS Sunflower Oil Summit : Science & Industry July 11, 2017, Odessa / UKRAINE

AGENDA 1-THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY 2 SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS 3 2017/2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS 4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT IS AROUND RECORD 560 MLN T. SUNSEED IS THE 3RD BIGGEST OILSEED FOLLOWING SOYBEAN AND RAPESEED WITH 8.8% ( RECORD 49.5 MLN T ) SHARE.

GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( MLN T ) Cottonseed 39,5 7% Sunseed 49,5 9% Rapeseed 68 12% Others 53 9% Soybean 350 63% 2016/17 Season, 560 Mln T total Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT IS AROUND RECORD 190.0 MLN T. SUNOIL IS THE 4TH BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING PALMOIL, SOYOIL AND RAPEOIL WITH 9.75% ( RECORD 18.5 MLN T ) SHARE.

GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT ( MLN T ) Sunoil 18,5 10% 2016/17 Season,190 Mln T total Palmoil 66 35% Others 25 13% RapeOil 26,5 14% Soyoil 54 28% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD VEGOILS TRADE IS AROUND RECORD 85.0 MLN T. SUNOIL IS THE 3RD BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WITH 12.0% ( RECORD 10.25 MLN T ) SHARE.

GLOBAL VEGOILS TRADE ( MLN T ) Sunoil 10,25 12% 2016/17 Season, 85 Mln T total Others 7,25 9% Palmoil 47,5 58% Soyoil 12,25 15% RapeOil 5 6% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

AFTER BRIEF GLOBAL OUTLOOK, LET S LOOK AT THE MAJOR PLAYER COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE.

BLACK SEA BASIN IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUN COMPLEX OUTPUT AND TRADE.

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD 6.255 KMT OF SUNOIL OUTPUT WITH 34% SHARE GLOBALLY.

WORLD SUNOIL OUTPUT ( 1000 TONS ) Argentina 1.300 7% Others 2.410 13% 2016/17 Season, 18.5 Mln T Total Ukraine 6.255 34% EU-28 3.250 18% Russia 4.485 24% Turkey 800 4% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; EU-28 IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD 4.250 KMT OF SUNOIL CONSUMPTION WITH 23% SHARE GLOBALLY.

WORLD SUNOIL CONSUMPTION ( 1000 TONS ) China 1.250 7% 2016/17 Season, 18.25 Mln T Total Others 7.025 39% Russia 2.600 14% Turkey 975 5% EU-28 4.250 23% India 2.150 12% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD 5.780 KMT OF SUNOIL EXPORT WITH 56% SHARE GLOBALLY.

WORLD SUNOIL EXPORT ( 1000 TONS ) Others 1.095 11% 2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total Turkey 675 7% Argentina 700 7% Russia 2.000 19% Ukraine 5.780 56% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; INDIA IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD 2.150 KMT OF SUNOIL IMPORT WITH 21% SHARE GLOBALLY.

WORLD SUNOIL IMPORT ( 1000 TONS ) 2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total Others 4.640 45% India 2.150 21% EU-28 1.600 16% Turkey 860 8% China 1000 10% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

FOLLOWING SUNOIL ROLE AND MAJOR GLOBAL PLAYERS, NOW, LET S BE FOCUSED ON GLOBAL PRICES OF SUNOIL IN RECENT YEARS AND LET S COMPARE TO OTHER VEGOILS PRICES.

FIRST, LET S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB PRICES AS PER ROTTERDAM ( 6 PORTS ), ARGENTINA AND BLACK SEA SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON

1800 1600 1400 GLOBAL SUNOIL FOB PRICES, $/MT Crude Sunoil (EU, 6 Ports, FOB Rotterdam) Crude Sunoil FOB Argentina Crude Sunoil FOB Black Sea 1639 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 477 352 Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

AS YOU SEE; 1999/2000 SEASON IS THE BOTTOM WITH 352 AND 413 $/MT FOR ARGENTINA AND ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY. IN OCT 2000, ARGENTINIAN AND ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 294 AND 340 $/MT RESPECTIVELY.

AS YOU SEE ALSO; 2007/2008 SEASON IS THE PEAK WITH 1.499, 1.501 AND 1.639 $/MT FOR BLACK SEA, ARGENTINA AND ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY. IN JUNE 2008, BLACK SEA, ARGENTINIAN AND ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 1.774, 1.849 AND 2.045 $/MT RESPECTIVELY.

SECOND, LET S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES SINCE 2000/2001 SEASON WHEN UKRAINE STARTED TO BE ONE OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL EXPORTERS.

CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES, $/MT 1650 1550 1450 1350 1250 1150 1050 950 850 750 650 550 450 350 382 551 541 612 636 549 763 1499 735 1302 1140 1090 877 851 792 786 751 Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

AS YOU SEE; 2000/2001 SEASON WAS THE BOTTOM WITH 382 $/MT. IN OCT 2000, 299 $/MT OF THE LOWEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN. IN JUNE 2008, 1.774 $/MT OF THE HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN. HOWEVER, WE EVEN EXPERIENCED AROUND 1.900 $/MT BY MID-JUNE 2008.

NOW, LET S LOOK AT ROTTERDAM SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON

1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES, $/MT Soyoil FOB Argentina Sunoil FOB Rotterdam RapeOil FOB Dutch RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

EXCEPT SOME EXTREME SEASONS ( INCLUDING CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON WITH RECORD GLOBAL CROP SIZE ), ROTTERDAM SUNOIL WAS ALMOST THE MOST HIGHLY-PRICED VEGOIL.

SUNOIL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 1- USD/UAH & USD/RU PARITIES UKRAINIAN GRIVNA & RUSSIAN RUBLE CURRENCY RATES ARE QUITE CRUCIAL FOR SUNOIL EXPORTS.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 2- FARMER SALES SALES INTEREST OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN FARMERS ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR CRUSHABLE SUNSEED SUPPLIES AND CRUSHING MARGINS.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 3- EXPORT DUTIES UKRAINE HAS 10% AND RUSSIA HAS 6.5% EXPORT DUTIES FOR SUNSEED BY AIMING TO PROVIDE MORE CRUSHABLE LOCAL SUNSEED SUPPLIES.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 4- TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES OF SUNSEED AND SUNOIL ARE DETERMINING THE ACTUAL IMPORT SIZES.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 5- TURKISH RE-EXPORTS UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME, TURKEY IMPORTS DUTY- FREE CRUDE SUNOIL FROM BLACK SEA AND RE-EXPORTS IT AS REFINED MAINLY TO IRAQ AND SYRIA BY UTILIZING ITS LOGISTICS AND CULTURAL ADVANTAGES.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 6- REGIONAL TRADE AND POLITICAL CONFLICTS PLEASE REMEMBER TURKISH SUNOIL IMPORT BAN FOR RUSSIAN SUNOIL IN BETWEEN MID-MARCH AND MID-MAY 2017.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 7- NEW REFINERY IN IRAQ A NEW REFINERY FACTORY WAS JUST ESTABLISHED IN BABEL/IRAQ WITH DAILY CAPACITY OF 2.000 TONS. THIS MAY REDUCE TURKISH REFINED SUNOIL RE-EXPORTS TO IRAQ AND INCREASE CRUDE SUNOIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA MAINLY VIA UMM QASR PORT IN PERSIAN GULF.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 1- SUNOIL/OTHER VEGOILS PREMIUM SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM VERSUS OTHER VEGOILS IS SO IMPORTANT FOR PRICE ELASTIC DESTINATIONS SUCH NORTHERN AFRICA AND IRAN FOREMOST.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 2- PETROL PRICES ALBEIT SUNOIL IS NOT BIODIESEL RAW MATERIAL SO MUCH, IT S ALSO INFLUENCED FROM OTHER VEGOILS.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 3- WEATHER CONDITIONS EL-NINO, LA-NINA AND OTHER LOCAL WEATHER PHENOMENA ARE QUITE CRUCIAL FOR ACTUAL CROP SIZES OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS TO BE CRUSHED FOR VEGOILS OUTPUT.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 4- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRADE RULES POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR SUNOIL EXPORTERS/IMPORTERS AS WELL AS FOREIGN TRADE LEGISLATION ARE NONE-NEGLIGIBLE.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 5- CURRENCIES EUR/USD AND OTHER CURRENCIES ARE ALSO THE MAJOR DETERMINANTS IN SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOIL PRICES.

2017/18 SEASON PROSPECTS

BLACK SEA SUNFLOWER PLANTINGS BY SPRING 2017 WERE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016 ONES. IN THIS CONNECTION, UNDER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS, DISLIKE UNFAVOURABLE ONES IN ESP. BALKANS BY SUMMER 2015 AND 2016, STILL PROMISING NEW-CROP SIZES ARE LIKELY. BESIDES, AS PER EARLIER PLANTINGS, EARLIER HARVESTINGS ( STARTING BY MID EVEN 5-10 AUG 2017 ) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

NOW, LET S LOOK AT OUR LATEST 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED ACREAGES NEW-CROP SIZE FORECASTS BY MAJOR PRODUCERS.

2017/2018 SEASON GLOBAL SUNSEED PROSPECTS Acreage, kha* Yield ( Kg/daa ) Crop Size ( kmt ) COUNTRY 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 No Ukraine 6.350 6.350 236 13.500-14.000 15.000 1 Russia 7.750 7.750 148 10.500-11.000 11.500 2 Argentina 1.700-1.800 1.750 197 3.250-3.500 3.450 3 China 1.075 1.050 262 2.750-3.000 2.750 4 Hungary 660 650 292 1.750-1.900 1.900 5 Romania 1.100 1.025 185 2.000-2.200 1.900 6 Bulgaria 850 825 218 1.950-2.150 1.800 7 Turkey** 675 585 231 1.500-1.600 1.350 8 France 575 550 218 1.200-1.300 1.200 9 USA 575 625 192 1.000-1.100 1.200 10 Moldova 410 400 213 800-850 850 11 South Afr. Rep. 625-675 650 127 800-850 825 12 Kazakhistan 800 810 93 700-750 750 13 Spain 700 725 100 550-600 725 14 Serbia 200 200 313 575-625 625 15 Others 3.525-3.575 3.550 104 3.600-3.700 3.675 16 Total 27.570-27.770 27.495 180 46.425-49.125 49.500 * Planted Acreages Narrow-Range 47.000-48.000 ** 150-175 kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.

SUMMING UP, REGIONALLY ; Ukraine, 13.5 14.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 15.0 ), Russia, 10.5 11.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 11.5 ), Romania, 2.0 2.2 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.9 ), Bulgaria, 1.95 2.15 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.8 ), Turkey, 1.5 1.6 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.35 ), Moldova, 0.8 0.85 Mln T ( 15/16, 0.85 )..

UNDER NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS; 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED GLOBAL NEW-CROP IS LIKELY AS 47.0 48.0 MLN T. VS RECORD 49.5 MLN T. OF 2016/17.

IF SO, GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT & TRADE MAY BE AROUND 0.6 1.0 MLN T. LESS THAN RECORD 2016/17 SEASON

ACCORDINGLY, CURRENT EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS PRICE PREMIUM OF SUNOIL VS SOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SIMILAR TO EARLIER SEASONS EXCEPT CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.

ASIDE FROM SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS ( IN BLACK SEA ESP. ) FOR SUNSEED, WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS!!!

PRESENTATION SUMMARY

SUNOIL IS AMIDS THE MOST PRODUCED AND TRADED AGROCOMMODITIES OF THE WORLD. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN BOTH GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE. SUNOIL IS THE MOST HIGH-PRICED VEGOIL EXCEPT EXTREME SEASONS SUCH CURRENT 2016/17 ONE. BLACK SEA, THE HEART OF SUN COMPLEX, WHEREAS SUNFLOWER NEW- CROP ACREAGES ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016, BUT EXTRA-ORDINARY YIELDS MAY NOT BE REPEATED IN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA FOREMOST. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NEW-CROP POTENTIALS, 2017/18 NEW-SEASON GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE MAY BE 0.6 1.0 MLN T LESS THAN CURRENT 2016/17SEASON. IF SO, CURRENT SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM ( EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS ) VS SOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NEXT 2017/18 SEASON. NEVERTHELESS, ARE WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMICAL/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS STILL.

Great thanks for your kind attention велике спасибі Большое спасибо

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