World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation March 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released March 8, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA s 217/18 Supply and Demand Estimates 1. 217/18 global wheat production to reach a new record of 759 Global supplies estimate to grow to 8.28 ; up 1% from the 216/17 and a new record Wheat production in Argentina to fell to 18., 2% below 216/17 U.S. wheat production estimated at 47.4, 19% below the 5-year average 2. Consumption forecast at a record 743, 5% above the 5-year average Chinese domestic consumption to total 117, 1% below the 5-year average, if realized U.S. domestic consumption to slip 4% year over year to 3.4 due to lower wheat feeding and seed usage 3. World wheat trade projected at 182, down 1% from 216/17, but 1% above the 5-year average Russian exports to rise to 37.5, 35% above 216/17 and 7% above the 5-year average Exports from the EU to fall 8% year over year to 25. U.S. 217/18 exports to decrease to 25.2, down 12% from 216/17
Highlights of USDA s 217/18 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 253, up 5% year over year Beginning stocks in India totaled 9.8, 48% below the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks rose to an estimated 32.1, 21% above 216/17 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at record 269, 6% higher than 216/17, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 127 account for 47% of global ending stocks, 57% greater than the 5-year average Exporter ending stocks forecast at 71.2, up 1% compared to 216/17 Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.7, 7% below the 5-year average of 7.6 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 2% higher in 217/18 Projected average range: $4.6 to $4.7/bushel ($169-$173/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
World Production and Use 8 75 739 743 7 65 751 759 6 55 5 Production Use
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 445 38 467 464 43 395 5 65 64 7 Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
World Wheat Supply and Demand 15/16 16/17 17/18 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 218 241 253 Production 735 751 759 Supply Total 953 992 111 TRADE: Exports/Imports 173 183 182 DEMAND Food & Seed 575 592 598 Feed & Residual 137 147 145 Use Total 712 739 743 ENDING STOCKS: 241 253 269
World Beginning Stocks 3 25 2 15 59 65 76 97 111 1 43 62 76 66 5 23 17 21 55 52 54 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio 4 35 3 29 31 34 34 36 25 Percent 2 15 1 5 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 *Ending stocks
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China 3 25 23 26 22 24 24 23 23 2 Percent 15 1 5 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 *Ending stocks
World Ending Stocks 3 25 241 253 269 2 97 111 127 15 1 5 76 66 66 17 21 24 52 54 52 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China 127 Exporters 76.4 Importers 65.7
Global Ending Stocks and Price 3 4 25 35 3 2 193 25 15 177 27 2 $US/MT 1 8 123 15 5 15 4 21 24 54 52 1 5 89/9 93/94 97/98 1/2 5/6 9/1 13/14 17/18 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Canada Situation 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 27.6 31.7 3. 2. 15. 22.1 2.2 22.5 1. 5.. 7.1 5.2 6.8 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks 12. 1. 1.4 8. 6. 5.9 7.1 6.8 6.1 5.2 4. 2.. 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Australia Situation 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 23.7 22.3 3.4 21.5 15. 16.6 16.1 22.6 16. 1. 5.. 7.1 4.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 4.4 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks 1. 8. 8.2 6. 7.1 4. 4.6 4.7 4.4 2. 3.1 3.9 3.2. 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Argentina Situation 2. 18. 16. 14. 12. 13.9 11.3 18.4 13.8 18. 12.5 1. 8. 6. 1.5 9.6 4. 5.3 2.. 4.8 2.5.3.8.3 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks 5.5 5. 4.5 4.8 4. 3.5 4.1 3. 2.5 2. 2.5 1.5 1..5.7.8..3.3.3 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
EU-27 Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 157 16 145 152 8 6 4 34.7 27.3 25. 2 9.9 12.7 15.6 1.8 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks 25 2 19.4 15 12.7 15.6 14.1 1 1.8 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Russia Situation 12 1 8 85 6 59 61 73 4 37.5 25.5 27.8 2 5.2 6.3 5.6 1.8 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks 2 15 13.7 13.8 1 1.8 5 6.3 5.6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Black Sea Region Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 112 118 13 51.5 54.4 143 63.4 2 15.8 2.7 16.8 21.1 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
Black Sea Exports 7 6 7.5 5 7.6 7.4 17.2 4 3 8.1 5.5 11.3 17.4 18.1 2 9.8 37.5 1 18.6 22.8 25.5 27.8 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks 3 25 2 23.3 2.7 21.1 24.5 15 16.8 1 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
U.S. Situation 1 9 8 7 62.8 6 5 4 56.1 47.4 3 2 1 21.2 28.7 2.5 26.6 25.2 32.1 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks 35 3 25 26.6 32.1 28.2 2 2.2 2.5 15 16.1 1 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 217/18 216/17
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5.
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS export sales report March 1, 218.
3.5 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 216/17 vs. 215/16 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 216/17 215/16 Source: USDA FAS 216/17 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 217.
World Wheat Imports 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 89/9 93/94 97/98 1/2 5/6 9/1 13/14 17/18 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 7. 6. 5. Million Acres 4. 3. 13.6 13.9 3.4 3.6 5.7 6. 2. 1. 23.3 23.1. 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Spring & Durum *Source: USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 23, 217
U.S. Hard Red Winter 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 29.5 12.4 12.1 2.4 1.3 16. 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring 25 2 15 13.4 1.5 1 8.7 5 7.4 6.4 6.4 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter 2 15 1 9.4 7.9 5 2.5 2.4 4.3 5.9 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White 12 1 7.8 7. 8 6 4 4.4 5.4 2 2. 2.9 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum 5 4.8 3 2 2.8 1.3 1.5 1.7.5.8 1. 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. HRW HRS White SRW Durum 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS export sales report February 8, 218.
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 HRW HRS SRW White Durum 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 Beginning Stocks 12.1 16. 7.4 6.4 4.3 5.9 Production 29.5 2.4 13.4 1.5 9.4 7.9 Imports.1.2 1.1 2..9.5 Supply Total 41.7 36.7 21.9 18.9 14.6 14.3 Domestic Use 13.3 12.4 6.8 7.5 6.2 5.7 Exports 12.4 1.3 8.7 6.4 2.5 2.4 Use Total 25.7 22.8 15.5 13.9 8.7 8.1 Ending Stocks 16. 13.9 6.4 5. 5.9 6.2 Stocks-to-Use 62% 61% 41% 36% 67% 76%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 Beginning Stocks 2. 2.9.8 1. 26.6 32.1 Production 7.8 7. 2.8 1.5 62.8 47.4 Imports.2.2.8 1.3 3.2 4.2 Supply Total 1. 1.1 4.4 3.8 92.6 83.7 Domestic Use 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 31.8 3.4 Exports 4.4 5.4.7.5 28.7 25.2 Use Total 7.2 8. 3.4 2.8 6.5 55.6 Ending Stocks 2.9 2.1 1. 1. 32.1 28.1 Stocks-to-Use 4% 26% 29% 34% 53% 51%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 35 3 $/Metric Ton 25 2 15 1 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 $/Metric Ton 3 25 2 15 1 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices 3 28 26 24 $/Metric Ton 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton 1 5-5 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton 15 1 5 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production 75 3.5 3.6 Production () and Harvested Area (mh) 65 55 45 35 25 43.7 62.8 3.1 47.4 15.2 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 MT/hectares 15 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison 45. 4. 38.8 37.9 36.8 Million Hectares 35. 3. 25. 27.9 28.9 25.3 3.9 23. 33.3 36.2 2. 22.4 2.6 18.5 15. 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 3, 217
World Wheat Production, Use and Trade 8 183 182 19 75 166 164 173 18 17 Production and Use () 7 65 6 715 698 728 7 735 712 751 739 759 743 16 15 14 13 Trade () 55 12 11 5 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Production Use Trade 1
World Corn Production, Use and Trade 12 18 16 156 16 1 14 12 Production and Use () 8 6 4 973 968 175 158 142 174 12 1 8 6 Trade () 4 2 2 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 16 147 151 35 133 14 3 12 Production and Use () 25 2 15 314 314 351 33 341 344 1 8 6 Trade () 1 4 5 2 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains 8 7 6 $/metric ton 5 4 3 2 1 2/12/16 3/12/16 4/12/16 5/12/16 6/12/16 7/12/16 8/12/16 9/12/16 1/12/16 11/12/16 12/12/16 1/12/17 2/12/17 3/12/17 4/12/17 5/12/17 6/12/17 7/12/17 8/12/17 9/12/17 1/12/17 11/12/17 12/12/17 1/12/18 2/12/18 PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary Global production at a record 759, up 1% from 216/17 Ukrainian wheat production reached 27., 1% below 216/17 Wheat production in the U.S. totaled 47.4, 19% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to rise to a record 269, 23% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in Canada to fall to 6.14, 1% below 216/17 U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 28.2, down 12% from 216/17, if realized World consumption expected to increase 1% in 217/18, trade down slightly Indonesia expected to be the largest wheat importer at 12.5, 23% above 216/17 U.S. 217/18 exports to total 25.2, 3% behind the 5-year average, if realized