INGREDIENT Volume 1 Number 1 February 216 digest A global milk surplus coupled with dampened appetites among major importers continues to weigh on global dairy ingredient markets. Global milk powder stocks remain plentiful despite production slowdowns in New Zealand. Strong EU milk flows continue to more than offset deficits, limiting any near term price recovery. WPC 34 remains sluggish, boxed in by weak dry whey and NDM fundamentals. Little is expected to change in the near term limiting upside prospects. Strong US output and heavy stocks continue to pressure dry whey prices. However, low US prices versus the EU may improve export opportunities. The WPC 8 market continues to wrestle with over capacity. Prices remain near 215 lows...but anecdotal reports point to better buyer interest, slowly chipping away at US stocks. The lactose market appears more in balance thanks to ongoing US production cuts and robust exports. Prices perked a little as a result, but low whey prices may limit further gains. Blimling Price Forecasts ($ per lb) Market 1H '16 2H '16 217 NZ WMP $.94 $.99 $1.18 US NDM $.77 $.85 $1.8 9 million pounds December year-to-year increase in US WPC 5-89 manufacturer stocks US Acid Casein $3.14 $3.38 $3.85 US WPC 8 $1.63 $1.93 $2.19 US WPC 34 $.58 $.66 $.84 US Dry Whey $.24 $.28 $.33 US Lactose $.22 $.24 $.27 81 million pounds 215 full year reduction in US lactose production versus 214 521 East Terrace Drive, Suite 28 Madison, WI 53718 8-726-9928 info@blimling.com 216 Blimling and Associates, Inc. This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Blimling and Associates clients. Reproduction in part or in whole without permission is strictly prohibited. This information is carefully compiled, but not guaranteed to be complete or free from error; nor does it constitute a solicitation to buy or sell futures/options contracts. Futures and options trading involves risk. Contact a licensed professional for more information.
Global Trends 2 Europe EU milk flows continue to surge. November output increased 5% from a year ago and most indicators point to gains extending into 216. Exceptional growth out of Netherlands and Ireland continue to underpin the post-quota EU growth trend. New Zealand Better than expected weather and timely rains improved milk production results. December output fell just 2% versus 214, with season-to-date volumes down 3%. However, year two of low payouts may start to impact local output. China The world s largest importer remains comparatively quiet. December powder imports fell 17% versus 214. On the year, volumes slumped 41% or about 38, metric tons from a year ago. Improving domestic milk production will likely continue to limit 216 commodity imports. Middle East Falling oil prices may be curtailing dairy demand in prime oil-dependent regions. However, 215 ended strong, where October Middle East import activity jumped 2% year-over-year. But, bids are harder to find these days, with surplus products diverted to warehouses in the US and EU. INGREDIENT digest
Macro Influences 3 $65 Weekly Crude Oil Prices 5,5 Shanghai Composite Index $6 $55 5, $5 4,5 $45 $4 4, $35 3,5 $3 $25 3, $2 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Weekly Close; CME 2,5 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 A global supply glut continues to besiege the crude oil markets. US WTI prices hit a 12- year low in January as domestic output remains elevated and stocks set new record highs. China s equity markets are down 23% in 216, underscoring a growing concern of a sharp economic downturn in the world s most populous country. The US dollar lost ground to the Euro and is trading at levels not seen since October. $1.25 Weekly Euro vs. US Dollar 6 US Monthly Jobs Report 5 $1.2 4 $1.15 3 2 $1.1 1 $1.5 (1) $1. Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Weekly Close; CME (2) 21 211 212 213 214 215 Net change in US jobs INGREDIENT digest
Skim Milk Powder 4 The global SMP market remains under pressure, with prices falling well below the $.85 mark in some instances. Supply-side strength continues to drive price weakness. Specifically, robust milk production growth in the EU translated to a 9% year-tor-date gain in SMP production through November. Consequently, EU SMP stocks are elevated and still building. From the demand side, softer China imports and altered Russian demand shifted trade flows in 215. More recently, demand has been hurt by falling oil prices. EU SMP Intervention Stocks 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan MT; EU Commission Belgium Lithuania Poland Ireland UK Other NDM/SMP ($ per lb) Period EU US NZ 213 $1.84 $1.74 $2.1 214 $1.61 $1.75 $1.68 215 $.91 $.94 $.98 3 Yr Avg $1.45 $1.48 $1.56 Q1 $.76 216 Q2 $.78 Q3 $.81 Q4 $.88 216 Avg $.81 Q1 $.97 217 Q2 $1.5 Q3 $1.9 Q4 $1.19 217 Avg $1.8 $2.5 $2.3 $2.1 $1.9 $1.7 $1.5 $1.3 $1.1 $.9 $.7 Key NDM/SMP Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Production (Dec) 192 (7%) 2,254 (2%) EU Production (Nov) 3,3 9% EU Intervention (Jan) 5 5 * Trade data from tariff code 421 NDM/SMP Prices $.5 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA Range NZ EU US Estimate INGREDIENT digest
Whole Milk Powder 5 The WMP market continues to face downside pressure on the back of weak demand and better-than-expected New Zealand milk production. GlobalDairyTrade prices slipped back below $.9 per pound at the most recent auction the lowest price since August. China import activity remains soft relative to years past. Indeed, imports during the third quarter were off 14% from a year ago and there are few signs of improvement on the horizon. Additionally, weak oil prices will likely start to take a toll on demand from some key importers. China Whole Milk Powder Imports 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Metric Tons; GTIS 215 214 213 WMP Forecast ($ per lb) Period EU US NZ 213 $2.13 $1.89 $2.16 214 $1.86 $1.97 $1.69 215 $1.16 $1.3 $1.11 3 Yr Avg $1.72 $1.72 $1.65 Q1 $.95 216 Q2 $.94 Q3 $.97 Q4 $1.1 216 Avg $.97 Q1 $1.7 217 Q2 $1.14 Q3 $1.21 Q4 $1.31 217 Avg $1.18 $2.5 $2.3 $2.1 $1.9 $1.7 $1.5 $1.3 $1.1 $.9 Key WMP Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % China Import (Dec) 37 (31%) 755 (49%) Algeria Imports (Nov) 22 26% 288 1% NZ Exports (Dec) 43 11% 3,25 (3%) * Trade data from tariff code 4221 WMP Prices $.7 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA Range US EU NZ Estimate INGREDIENT digest
Acid Casein 6 With SMP beaten down, it s no surprise to see the acid casein market bumped and bruised. However, the damage could be worse, as world prices hold upwards of a $.6 per pound premium to the theoretical protein value based on SMP. US imports slowed after seeing solid growth earlier in the year. November imports dropped 9% versus the prior year. With better-than-expected milk flows in New Zealand and Ireland, more milk appears headed to casein. Indeed, Ireland s exports rose 5% in November while New Zealand volumes rose 31% in December. Ireland Casein Exports 12 1 8 6 4 2 Million Pounds; GTIS 215 213 214 Acid Casein Forecast ($ per lb) Period High Low Forecast 213 $4.92 214 $5.4 215 3 Yr Avg $3.53 $4.5 Q1 $3.15 $3.1 $3.12 216 Q2 $3.2 $3.1 $3.15 Q3 $3.4 $3.15 $3.3 Q4 $3.6 $3.25 $3.45 216 Avg $3.34 $3.15 $3.26 Q1 $3.8 $3.3 $3.6 217 Q2 $4. $3.4 $3.8 Q3 $4.25 $3.55 $3.95 Q4 $4.4 $3.65 $4.5 217 Avg $4.11 $3.48 $3.85 Key Casein Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Imports (Nov) 8 (9%) 97 5% NZ Exports (Dec) 9 31% 12 23% IRE Exports (Nov) 1 5% 8 9% * Trade data from tariff code 35119 Acid Casein Prices $5.5 $5. $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA, Blimling Estimates Range Forecast INGREDIENT digest
WPC 8 7 WPC 8 markets remain weak as excess supplies continue to weigh on prices. A seasonal climb in demand may offer near term support but upside will be limited. After several months of static output, US manufacturers are again expanding, keeping inventories near record highs. US exporters continue to struggle against increased EU competition. Imports are in decline, due in part to New Zealand re-focusing its attention on China. Despite reports of recent price firming, the road to recovery will be long and uneven given the prevailing supply surplus. US WPC 5-9 Manufacturers' Stocks 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 215 214 213 WPC 8 Forecast ($ per lb) Period High Low Forecast 213 $4.2 214 $4.35 215 3 Yr Avg $2.56 $3.7 Q1 $1.8 $1.4 $1.55 216 Q2 $2. $1.5 $1.7 Q3 $2.1 $1.55 $1.85 Q4 $2.25 $1.65 $2. 216 Avg $2.4 $1.53 $1.78 Q1 $2.4 $1.75 $2.5 217 Q2 $2.55 $1.8 $2.15 Q3 $2.75 $1.9 $2.25 Q4 $2.9 $2. $2.3 217 Avg $2.65 $1.86 $2.19 Key WPC 8 Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Output (Dec) 24 5% 273 6% US Stocks (Dec) 42 27% US Imports (Nov) 2 (1%) 32 (7%) * Trade data from tariff code 3522 (WPC 8+) WPC 8 Prices $5. $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; Blimling Estimates Range Forecast INGREDIENT digest
WPC 34 8 The WPC 34 market appears to have stabilized. US production posted a meager 16.1 million pounds in December, off 34% from 214. 215 full year output trailed 214 by 61 million pounds (22%). Improved US export prospects have also helped to re-balance supplies. November shipments grew 12% year-on-year. Lower US production has helped to whittle away burdensome inventory levels. Buyers are stepping in, providing a short term lift to prices. However, weak milk and whey powder prices will limit any upside surge. US WPC 25-49 Production 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 Million Pounds (3-Day Months); USDA 215 214 213 WPC 34 Forecast ($ per lb) Period High Low Forecast 213 $1.37 214 $1.58 215 3 Yr Avg $.8 $1.25 Q1 $.59 $.52 $.56 216 Q2 $.67 $.52 $.6 Q3 $.72 $.55 $.63 Q4 $.81 $.58 $.7 216 Avg $.7 $.55 $.62 Q1 $.9 $.63 $.76 217 Q2 $.97 $.67 $.82 Q3 $1. $.71 $.86 Q4 $1.13 $.74 $.93 217 Avg $1. $.69 $.84 Key WPC 34 Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Output (Dec) 16 (34%) 22 (22%) US Stocks (Dec) 26 (21%) US Exports (Nov) 17 12% 28 2% * Trade data from tariff code 4415 WPC 34 Prices $2. $1.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA Range Forecast INGREDIENT digest
Sweet Dry Whey 9 Dry whey remains plentiful thanks to sustained production strength. Solid supply and weak trade will likely thwart any meaningful price recovery. December US output climbed to its highest levels in two years, reaching 94 million pounds an impressive 25% year-to-year gain. Domestic stocks meanwhile rose 12% for the month. US whey exports in November totaled 26.3 million pounds, a 29% pullback versus prior year. However, competitive prices versus the EU may help improve export prospects in 216. US Whey Manufacturers' Stocks 8 7 6 5 4 3 215 214 213 Dry Whey ($ per lb) Period High Low Estimate 213 $.58 214 $.63 215 3 Yr Avg $.36 $.52 Q1 $.25 $.23 $.24 216 Q2 $.28 $.22 $.25 Q3 $.3 $.23 $.27 Q4 $.33 $.25 $.29 216 Avg $.29 $.23 $.26 Q1 $.37 $.25 $.31 217 Q2 $.39 $.25 $.32 Q3 $.41 $.26 $.34 Q4 $.44 $.26 $.35 217 Avg $.4 $.26 $.33 Key Whey Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Output (Dec) 94 25% 98 13% US Stocks (Dec) 69 12% US Exports (Nov) 26 (29%) 37 (22%) * Trade data from tariff code 4414 Sweet Dry Whey Prices $.7 $.6 $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA Range Europe Estimate INGREDIENT digest
Lactose and Permeate 1 US lactose appears to have turned a corner, perhaps ending a multi-month streak with pricing at multi-year lows. Prolonged price weakness did its part to regulate US output and skinny down stocks. At 13 million pounds, December US stocks are off 25% from its April peak. US exports are back on solid footing thanks to increased shipments to New Zealand and Mexico. Permeate has exhibited supply-side strength as well. And while prices have improved in recent months, flat whey prices may limit upside momentum. US Lactose Exports 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 215 214 213 Lactose Forecast ($ per lb) Period High Low Forecast 213 $.66 214 $.53 215 3 Yr Avg $.22 $.47 Q1 $.22 $.2 $.21 216 Q2 $.25 $.21 $.22 Q3 $.26 $.21 $.23 Q4 $.3 $.21 $.24 216 Avg $.26 $.21 $.23 Q1 $.31 $.22 $.25 217 Q2 $.33 $.22 $.25 Q3 $.36 $.24 $.27 Q4 $.38 $.24 $.3 217 Avg $.35 $.23 $.27 Key Lactose Fundamentals (million pounds) Month YoY % YTD YoY % US Stocks (Dec) 14 (22%) US Exports (Nov) 67 16% 728 5% NZ Imports (Nov) 8 (42%) 161 2% * Trade data from tariff codes 17211 and 17219 Lactose Prices $.8 $.7 $.6 $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 213 214 215 216 217 $ per lb; USDA, Blimling Estimates Range Forecast INGREDIENT digest
MILK Volume 4 Number 1 January 22, 216 production December production up 1.1% year-over-year. Cow numbers up 1, head month-over-month. NORTHWEST December production down 3.% year-over-year. Cow numbers unchanged month-over-month. CALIFORNIA December production down 4.3% year-over-year. Cow numbers down 4, head month-over-month. SOUTHWEST December production up 4.1% year-over-year. Cow numbers up 2, head month-over-month. MIDWEST December production up 1.8% year-over-year. Cow numbers unchanged month-over-month. NORTHEAST 5 State Total December production up.7% year-over-year. Cow numbers up 1, head month-over-month. 6 Daily Milk Production 9,35 US Cow Numbers 58 9,3 56 9,25 54 9,2 52 9,15 5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 215 214 213 9,1 212 213 214 215 Thousand Head; USDA 521 East Terrace Drive, Suite 28 Madison, WI 53718 8-945-8891 info@blimling.com 216 Blimling and Associates, Inc. This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Blimling and Associates clients. Reproduction in part or in whole without permission is strictly prohibited. This information is carefully compiled, but not guaranteed to be complete or free from error; nor does it constitute a solicitation to buy or sell futures/options contracts. Futures and options trading involves risk. Contact a licensed professional for more information.
MILK production 2 5% 215 Regional Milk Production 3.% US Milk Production Forecast 4% 3% 2.5% 2% 2.% 1% % 1.5% (1)% (2)% 1.% (3)% (4)% California Northwest Southwest Midwest Northeast Year-Over-Year Growth; USDA.5%.% 215 216 December Milk Production Production Daily Milk Per Cow Cows State (mil lbs.) vs Nov vs '14 (lbs.) vs Nov vs '14 ( head) vs Nov vs '14 CA 3,366 +5.% -3.% 61.%.% 1,776-4 WI 2,477 +4.9% +4.8% 62.%.% 1,28 +6 MN 87 +5.6% +2.9% 57.%.% 46 MI 876 +3.9% +4.8% 69.%.% 412 +1 +1 OH 458 +5.3%.% 55.%.% 266-2 IA 411 +5.7% +2.% 63.%.% 21 +1 IN 348 +5.1% +3.6% 61.%.% 184 +4 SD 29 +5.% +13.% 61.%.% 11 +1 +12 IL 162 +8.% +2.5% 55.%.% 94 NY 1,23 +4.9% +3.5% 63.%.% 62 +5 PA 94 +5.6%.% 55.%.% 53 VT 226 +5.1% +.4% 56.%.% 131-1 NM 624 +1.1% -6.2% 63.%.% 319-3 -4 TX 853 +3.4% -3.% 6.%.% 461-1 -9 ID 1,168 +2.8% +1.1% 64.%.% 587 +8 WA 548 +3.6% +.4% 64.%.% 277 OR 213 +4.4% +2.9% 55.%.% 126 +1 +1 AZ 39 +5.1% -2.3% 65.%.% 195 +1 CO 315 +3.3% +2.6% 69.%.% 148 +1 +3 KS 263 +4.8% -1.5% 6.%.% 142-1 FL 211 +1.5% +1.4% 55.%.% 125 +1 VA 147 +5.8% -3.3% 52.%.% 91 +1-2 UT 183 +3.4% -1.6% 62.%.% 96 23 State 16,362 +4.6% +.7% 61.%.% 8,64 +1 +29 5 State 17,447 +4.6% +.7% 6 1.2% +.4% 9,322 +1 +23 January 22, 216
MILK production 3 European Milk Production Output YOY Change Output YOY Change Output YOY Change Output YOY Change Output YOY Change Jan-15 12,42-1.% 2,61-1.% 2,23-1.3% 1,51-2.1% 118-13.1% Feb-15 11,177-1.3% 2,382-1.9% 2,6-2.4% 954-2.7% 222.5% Mar-15 12,727-1.5% 2,681-1.9% 2,244-3.1% 1,61-2.1% 468-3.5% Apr-15 13,316 1.6% 2,736 1.3% 2,264-1.% 1,1 1.7% 88 12.5% May-15 14,35 3.1% 2,877 2.9% 2,31.7% 1,166 6.6% 91 11.4% Jun-15 13,42 4.% 2,773 3.3% 2,127 2.1% 1,145 9.5% 844 11.9% Jul-15 13,269 2.9% 2,796 2.7% 2,32.% 1,162 1.5% 794 12.% Aug-15 12,865 2.9% 2,739 2.8% 1,973.% 1,147 1.6% 716 14.4% Sep-15 12,199 2.% 2,586 3.2% 1,938 1.4% 1,91 9.3% 624 16.6% Oct-15 12,444 5.1% 2,62 3.3% 2,67 3.1% 1,132 11.4% 554 26.3% Nov-15 11,887 5.% 2,541 4.7% 2,35 2.2% 1,112 13.8% 363 48.1% Dec-15 1,25 16.6% Rolling 12-months Thousand Metric Tons EU Milk Production EU-28 Germany France Netherlands Ireland 151,229 2.% 31,883 1.6% 25,328.2% 13,326 6.9% 6,552 1.1% EU milk production was up by 5% year-over-year for the second consecutive month in November. Massive year-over-year growth in Irish output (+48%) and sustained strength in the Netherlands (+14%) drove the expansion. Strong growth is expected to continue into the new year as output in coming months will be compared against a weak first quarter of 215. After a slight rebound last autumn, EU farmgate milk prices are once again ticking lower, amounting to an average payout of 3.6 per 1 kilograms in December. Furthermore, commodity prices have declined over the first few weeks of 216, suggesting that pay prices may need to move lower too. 14, EU Milk Production 42 EU-28 Farmgate Milk Price 13,5 4 13, 38 12,5 36 12, 34 11,5 32 11, 3 1,5 28 1, Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1, Metric Tons; Eurostat - 3 Day Months 215 214 213 26 21 211 212 213 214 215 per 1 kg; MDC Datum January 22, 216
MILK production 4 Oceania Milk Production Oceania Milk Production New Zealand Australia Output YOY Change Output YOY Change Dec-14 2,89 3.3% 979 1.1% Jan-15 2,481.3% 862 3.4% Feb-15 1,861-5.7% 77 9.3% Mar-15 1,749 -.9% 716 7.7% Apr-15 1,396 8.5% 69 5.7% May-15 796 1.6% 733 4.% Jun-15 147 8.5% 74 3.2% Jul-15 222 13.7% 721 5.5% Aug-15 1,379 -.8% 827 3.8% Sep-15 2,545-7.5% 1,4.8% Oct-15 3,211-2.7% 1,132 -.4% Nov-15 2,98-2.1% 1,32-3.4% Rolling 12-months 21,576 2.1% 1,18 3.4% Thousand Metric Tons New Zealand Milk Production 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1, Metric Tons (3 Day Months); DCANZ 215 214 213 Drought-like conditions have not materialized in New Zealand as ample rainfall helped keep pastures lush. Despite better-than-expected feed availability, output continues to struggle. November milk production dropped 2% from 214 and output in December likely followed a similar track. However, given Europe s striking growth, weaker output in New Zealand may not matter. Low farmgate milk prices will continue to pressure producer margins. And with sustained weakness in the global milk powder market, lenders may lose patience with highly-leveraged farms. Barring a quick turnaround in price outlook, the 216/17 season may prove difficult for many producers. 12, Season-to-Date NZ Milk Production 15 New Zealand and Ireland Milk Output 1, 1 5 8, 6, (5) 4, (1) (15) 2, (2) 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 1, Metric Tons; DCANZ (25) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1, MT; Eurostat, DCANZ - YOY Change Ireland New Zealand January 22, 216
TRADE Volume 7 Number 2 February 216 trends +3 +25 +2 US Net Butterfat Trade Mexico 2% Canada 2% 215 US Cheese Imports Other 1% +15 +1 +5 Other Europe 7% New Zealand 8% (5) (1) European Union 71% (15) 21 211 212 213 214 215 - Butter and AMF Trade US butter imports totaled 3.6 million pounds in December, falling 48% from November and 25% from 214. At the same time, AMF imports jumped to 6.3 million pounds from 1.7 million pounds in November. However, AMF import volume fell 1.6 million pounds compared to December 214. For 215, combined butter and AMF imports totaled 88.7 million pounds, nearly 4 million pounds (8%) more than in 214. US cheese exports totaled 54.6 million pounds in December, topping November s shipments by 4.1 million pounds. Compared to December 214, outbound volume was down 9% (6 million pounds). December s decline was driven in part by a combined 7 million pound reduction in shipments to South Korea and Japan. Annual export volume for 215 fell by 14% (114 million pounds) year-overyear, while imports over the same period climbed 75.4 million pounds (21%). December NDM/SMP exports from the US climbed 35% (27 million pounds) year-over-year to 11.8 million pounds. Annual NDM/SMP exports totaled a record-breaking 1,234 million pounds, up 32 million pounds (3%) from 214. Heavier volume into Mexico propelled the advance, increasing 24% (18 million pounds) from the year prior. Over the course of 215, US exporters shipped 55% of US NDM/ SMP production abroad, a 3% increase from 214. 521 East Terrace Drive, Suite 28 Madison, WI 53718 8-945-8891 info@blimling.com 216 Blimling and Associates, Inc. This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Blimling and Associates clients. Reproduction in part or in whole without permission is strictly prohibited. This information is carefully compiled, but not guaranteed to be complete or free from error; nor does it constitute a solicitation to buy or sell futures/options contracts. Futures and options trading involves risk. Contact a licensed professional for more information.
TRADE trends 2 Cheese Imports (million pounds) Total YTD Change 215 24.8 29.4 35.2 3.5 34.2 35. 39.1 36.6 36.5 44.6 48.1 46.1 44.1 44.1 21% 214 22.2 21.4 28.2 25.2 24.6 27.5 31.9 28.2 31. 38.5 42.9 43.1 364.7 364.7 12% 213 21.8 24.5 26.8 25.9 24.4 24.7 27.5 26.1 28.9 33.5 33. 28.5 325.5 325.5 Cheese Exports (million pounds) Total YTD Change 215 52.4 65.2 75.6 69.8 64.7 58.1 56.3 5. 48.9 52.1 5.5 54.6 698.2 698.2-14% 214 7.2 69.6 79.8 74.2 7. 74.6 71.1 69.1 61.4 57.9 54.1 6.2 812.1 812.1 17% 213 48.5 47.4 58.6 56.3 6.4 56.4 6.1 62.1 56.6 59.6 62.3 68.7 697.1 697.1 Net Cheese Trade 6 5 4 3 2 1 215 214 213 Net Cheese Trade (million pounds) Month 212 213 214 215 Jan 2.1 26.7 48. 27.6 Feb 22.5 22.9 48.2 35.8 Mar 3. 31.8 51.6 4.4 Apr 3.9 3.4 49. 39.3 May 36.4 36.1 45.4 3.5 Jun 29.6 31.7 47.1 23.1 Jul 23.4 32.7 39.2 17.2 Aug 16.2 36. 4.8 13.3 Sep 11.2 27.7 3.5 12.4 Oct 15.7 26.1 19.4 7.4 Nov. 29.3 11.2 2.4 Dec -2.4 4.3 17.2 8.5 Total 233.6 371.6 447.5 258.1 YTD 233.6 371.6 447.5 258.1 Change 59% 2% -42% Export Values and Volume YTD Cheese Exports by Destination $2.6 9 25 $2.4 8 2 $2.2 7 $2. 6 15 $1.8 5 1 $1.6 4 5 $1.4 3 $1.2 213 214 215 2 Mexico Korea Japan Australia Canada Sales Export Value 214 215 February 216
TRADE trends 3 NDM Exports (million pounds) Total YTD Change 215 77. 78.5 121.3 126.5 133.6 12.8 89.4 94.6 14.7 19.8 93.9 11.8 1234. 1234. 3% 214 85.6 79.7 113.6 116.8 133. 134.3 114.4 99.9 71. 85.4 93.1 75.2 122.1 122.1-2% 213 69.9 77.6 85.9 123.4 122.7 16.7 113.7 111.7 99.9 114. 1.7 97.5 1223.8 1223.8 NDM Exports to Mexico (million pounds) Total YTD Change 215 41.4 33.6 57.8 38.1 41. 37.3 44.5 39.7 6.5 62.9 46.9 52.9 556.5 556.5 24% 214 29.6 25. 34.5 31.6 54.8 54.5 37.7 35.6 26.5 32.2 49.4 36.5 448.1 448.1 11% 213 32.4 37.6 28.1 37.6 34.7 31.8 4.8 29.2 28.4 36.7 28.3 36.9 42.4 42.4 NDM/SMP Exports NDM/SMP Exports to Mexico 16 7% 7 14 6% 6 12 5% 5 1 4% 4 8 6 3% 3 4 2% 2 2 1% 1 % 213 214 215 215 214 213 Sales % of Total US Exports Export Values and Volume YTD NDM/SMP Exports by Destination $2. 15 6 $1.8 125 5 $1.6 1 4 $1.4 75 3 $1.2 5 2 $1. 25 1 $.8 213 214 215 Mexico Philippines Indonesia Vietnam China Sales Export Value 214 215 February 216
TRADE trends 9 3, Mexico SMP Imports 8, EU SMP Exports 7, 25, 6, 2, 5, 15, 4, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS US EU NZ All Other MT; GTIS, EU Commission - Nov Preliminary 215 214 213 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, China Milk Powder Imports 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, New Zealand Powder Exports Metric Tons; GTIS 215 214 213 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS SMP WMP Taking advantage of low global powder prices, Mexico SMP imports year-to-date through November were running 27% (49,755 metric tons) ahead of the year prior. While much of this product originated in the US, shipments from Europe crept higher, shifting the US market share from 97% in 214 down to 87%. In New Zealand, despite a 225,4 metric ton loss in outbound milk powder volume to China, exporters finished 215 with just a 1% (18, metric ton) loss in export sales. Global Milk Powder Trade February 216
TRADE trends 1 12, EU Butter Exports 1,4 Mexico AMF Exports to the US 1, 1,2 8, 1, 6, 8 6 4, 4 2, 2 211 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS - YTD Oct Other MENA Russia US Singapore 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS (Tariff Code: 469) 3,5 Ireland External-EU Butter Exports 25, NZ AMF Exports 3, 2, 2,5 2, 15, 1,5 1, 1, 5 5, Metric Tons; GTIS 215 214 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS - YTD Dec Other SE Asia MENA US Mexico With CME butter prices out of sync with the international market, the US was an inviting destination for exporters in 215. Indeed, butter exports from Europe to the US year-to-date through October neared 15, metric tons, double the volume shipped a year earlier. Exporters from Mexico also took advantage of the opportunity, shipping 6,125 metric tons of AMF into the US between January and November. So long as the US butter price remains elevated, butterfat should continue to flow into the US. Global Fat Trade February 216
TRADE trends 11 12, South Korea Cheese Imports 12, YTD Mexico Cheese Imports 1, 1, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, 211 212 213 214 215 Metric Tons; GTIS All Other US EU Oceania 211 212 213 214 215 Million lb; GTIS - YTD Nov Other NZ South America EU US 8, EU Cheese Exports 35, Year-to-Date NZ Cheese Exports 7, 3, 6, 25, 5, 2, 4, 3, 15, 2, 1, 1, 5, 211 212 213 214 215 MT; GTIS, EU Commission- Nov Preliminary 215 214 213 Million lb; GTIS - YTD Dec Other Japan SE Asia China MENA US European exporters have been able to successfully replace 2, MT of lost volume to Russia after it closed its border to the EU in August 214. Preliminary data suggests that EU cheese exports in November topped 64,5 metric tons, about 18% ahead of 214. Year-to-date through November, exports were running just 1% below 214. New Zealand exports also expanded in 215, increasing 18% year-over-year to 327, metric tons. Global Cheese Trade February 216