The Food and Commodity Price Shock and the Caribbean Region

The Food and Commodity Price Shock and the Caribbean Region Andrew Powell Research Department Inter American Development Bank June 2008 Barbados 1

Plan of the Presentation The Current Commodity Shock Temporary or Permanent? Fundamentals Theory Markets The Effects on the Caribbean Context Balance of Payments Conclusions 2

The Current Shock Real prices are not at a record But this is a very sharp price peak in commodity prices Especially for some products 3

Food Prices Index Index: 1957=100 450 400 Real Nominal 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-57 Jan-60 Jan-63 Jan-66 Jan-69 Jan-72 Jan-75 Jan-78 Jan-81 Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Source: IFS Note: Food includes wheat, maize, rice, sugar, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, coconut oil, fish meal, groundnut oil, beef, lamb and bananas. 4

Wheat 700 600 500 400 Nominal 350 Real 300 400 250 300 200 200 150 100 100 0 50 5 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price Index (1957=100) Source: BID/INT based on IFS-IMF Note: Real prices calculated using the US-CPI (2000) Nominal Real Price Index (2000=100)

Corn (Maize) 400 350 300 Nominal Real 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 50 100 0 50 6 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price Index (1957=100) Nominal Real Source: BID/INT based on IFS-IMF Note: Real prices calculated using the US-CPI (2000) Price Index (2000=100)

Soybean 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nominal Real 300 250 200 150 100 50 7 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price Index (1957=100) Note: Real prices calculated using the US-CPI (2000) Source: BID/INT based on IFS-IMF Nominal Real Price Index (2000=100)

Sugar 700 600 500 400 300 200 140 Nominal 130 Real 120 110 100 100 90 0 80 8 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price Index (1957=100) Source: BID/INT based on IFS-IMF Note: Real prices calculated using the US-CPI (2000) Nominal Real Price Index (2000=100)

310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 The food price shock is no larger than the shock in other commodities Real Commodity Prices US CPI 9 M1 1970 M12 1970 M11 1971 M10 1972 M9 1973 M8 1974 M7 1975 M6 1976 M5 1977 M4 1978 M3 1979 M2 1980 M1 1981 M12 1981 M11 1982 M10 1983 M9 1984 M8 1985 M7 1986 M6 1987 M5 1988 M4 1989 M3 1990 M2 1991 M1 1992 M12 1992 M11 1993 M10 1994 M9 1995 M8 1996 M7 1997 M6 1998 M5 1999 M4 2000 M3 2001 M2 2002 M1 2003 M12 2003 M11 2004 M10 2005 M9 2006 M8 2007 Index 100=1980 OIL COPPER WHEAT COFFEE SOYBEAN COAL RICE MAIZE

And Oil Prices have led the Surge Index: January 1992 = 100 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Oil All Commodities Food Commodities 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 10 Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics 10

Temporary versus Permanent Fundamentals Theory The Markets 11

Factors contributing to higher food commodity prices 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 Strong growth in demand, based on: Increasing population - Rapid economic growth - Rising per capita meat consumption Slowing growth in ag production Declining stocks of food commodities Escalating crude oil price Rapid expansion biofuels production Dollar devaluation Global liquidity (foreign exchange reserves) Rising costs of ag production Adverse weather Demand factors in brown Supply factors in green Exporter policies Importer policies 12 12

Strong economic growth Average Real GDP growth rates Percent 12 10 1975-90 1990-2000 2000-07 2009-17 8 6 4 2 0-2 World Developed Developing China India United States 13 Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2017. 13

Total world grain & oilseeds Stocks and stocks-to-use ratio Million metric ons Stocks / Use (%) 800 40% Ending stocks Stocks / Use 35% 600 30% 25% 400 20% 15% 200 10% 5% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0% 14 Source: USDA PS&D Database 14

Million Gallons 18,000 Ethanol 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Biofuels production: Largest producers Biodiesel Argentina Ukraine & Russia Brazil China Canada EU USA 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 15 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017 15

Speculation and Commodity Prices Speculation: an old issue for commodity markets. But changes in non-commercial net long positions do not appear to correlate well with price changes Global liquidity high (Central Bank reserves) and growth in long only investment funds, commodities seen as an asset class. 16

Foreign Exchange Reserves E m e r g in g A s ia : F o r e ig n e x c h a n g e r e s e r v e s $ b n 1 6 0 0 C h in a 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 E m e rg in g A s ia e x C h in a 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 J a p a n O P E C R u s s ia 0 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 S o u rc e : O x fo rd E c o n o m ic s / H a v e r A n a ly tic s 17 17

Nature of Price Shock Permanent Income growth and demand (China and India) Use of food as energy (Bio-fuels) Changes in diet Drought Transitory High price of oil and other agriculture imports (?) Speculative capital in search of high-return (?) Price of the Dollar (?) 18

Temporary versus Permanent Fundamentals Theory The Markets 19

Theory: Relationship Between Availability and Price 2.0 1.5 1.0 fu n ction w ith sto rag e N o rm a l ha r ve s t = 1 0 D (p) = 1 0 p ^ (-1 /3 ) r = 3 %, s ig m a = 1 0.5 0.0 n o s tora ge fu n ctio n 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 A vaila bility Simulations based on Deaton and Laroque 1976 Journal of Political Economy, from joint work with Christopher Gilbert 20

Giving Rise to Flat Valleys and Sharp Peaks 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 (2000=100) 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 Coffee prices since 1861 (Santos, Brazil). 21

Investment Cycles But supply responses also take time. A coffee tree takes 3-53 5 years to flower and 5-75 years to peak Crop-cycling programs limit substitution between certain annual crops And if all prices boom, new land takes time to develop 22

Coffee Price Cycles 75% 50% Short Cycle Long Cycle 1977 Brazilian Frost Boom 25% 0% -25% -50% -75% 1930s Depression & WW2 End of ICA Controls "Coffee Crisis" 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 From joint work with Christopher Gilbert 23

Implications The combination of storage and investment cycles implies large forecast errors. Its much easier to spot a boom, than to know how long it will last. Large booms have been accompanied by subsequent falls in long term prices New technologies in production, substitution in demand are promoted. 24

The Falling Long Run Real Price of Copper: Booms followed by larger Busts 35 0 30 0 c/lb (2000 prices) 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 5 0 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Copper deflated by US PPI from 1850, from joint work with Christopher Gilbert 25

Temporary versus Permanent Fundamentals Theory The Markets 26

What can we Learn from the Markets? Futures markets have become increasingly important. In normal times futures prices are tied to spot prices through arbitrage: futures normally in contango. Premium over spot reflects storage costs But when availability is low, spot prices boom: futures generally in backwardation. Futures price below spot, price expected to fall Futures markets then add information regarding expected future spot prices. 27

Futures Price Structures 810 785 760 735 710 685 660 635 610 585 560 535 510 485 460 435 410 385 Corn Future corn_apr07 corn_jan08 corn_apr08 corn_23may08 corn_13jun08 608 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 970 940 910 880 850 820 790 760 730 700 670 640 610 580 550 520 490 460 Wheat Future wheat_apr07 wheat_jan08 wheat_apr08 wheat_23may08 wheat_13jun08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 1525 1475 1425 1375 1325 1275 1225 1175 1125 1075 1025 975 925 875 825 775 Soybean Future soybean_apr07 soybean_jan08 soybean_apr08 soybean_23may08 soybean_13jun08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 Rice Future rice_apr rice_jan rice_23may08 rice_13jun08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 28

Futures Prices do not Reflect a Particular Supply Shortage But Rather Continuing High Prices: The Case of Corn Corn Future corn_apr07 corn_jan08 corn_apr08 corn_23may08 corn_13jun08 810 785 760 735 710 685 660 635 610 585 560 535 510 485 460 435 410 385 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 29

Wheat Prices Suggest High Prices are to Continue. Wheat Future wheat_apr07 wheat_jan08 wheat_apr08 wheat_23may08 wheat_13jun08 970 940 910 880 850 820 790 760 730 700 670 640 610 580 550 520 490 460 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 30

Soybean Prices Expected to Remain High Soybean Future soybean_apr07 soybean_jan08 soybean_apr08 soybean_23may08 soybean_13jun08 1525 1475 1425 1375 1325 1275 1225 1175 1125 1075 1025 975 925 875 825 775 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 31

Evidence from Previous Booms It is unusual for such a sharp price peak to be combined with a futures market premium Previous booms were accompanied by backwardation This implies the market considers that prices are still as likely to rise further than fall back 32

830 780 730 680 630 580 530 480 430 380 330 280 230 180 130 80 33 1/4/1972 1/4/1973 1/4/1974 1/4/1975 1/4/1976 1/4/1977 1/4/1978 1/4/1979 1/4/1980 1/4/1981 1/4/1982 1/4/1983 1/4/1984 1/4/1985 1/4/1986 1/4/1987 1/4/1988 1/4/1989 1/4/1990 1/4/1991 1/4/1992 1/4/1993 1/4/1994 1/4/1995 1/4/1996 1/4/1997 1/4/1998 1/4/1999 1/4/2000 1/4/2001 1/4/2002 1/4/2003 1/4/2004 1/4/2005 1/4/2006 1/4/2007 1/4/2008 Index 100= Jan 4th 1972 Real Commodity Prices Wheat Soybean Corn

Previous Booms Were Accompanied by Backwardations Corn Future 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 c orn_1988 c orn_1996 c orn_2004 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 12mont 34

Previous Booms Were Accompanied by Backwardations Soybe an Future 1040 1000 960 920 soybean_1988 soybean_1996 soybean_2004 880 840 800 760 720 680 640 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 12mont 35

Previous Booms Were Accompanied by Backwardations Wheat Future 520 500 480 460 w heat_1988 w heat_1996 w heat_2004 440 420 400 380 360 340 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 12mont 36

Futures Premia Today and in Previous Booms CORN Spot Prices 6 Months Futures Prices Difference Event Nominal Real Nominal Real % % 1988 352.50 514.41 250.25 357.62-29.0% -30.5% 1996 548.00 601.05 388.75 420.76-29.1% -30.0% 2004 294.50 268.18 298.50 269.12 1.4% 0.3% Today 731.75 590.12 765.00 616.94 4.5% 4.5% WHEAT Spot Prices 6 Months Futures Prices Difference Event Nominal Real Nominal Real % % 1988 400.50 584.46 363.50 519.46-9.2% -11.1% 1996 500.25 548.68 429.00 464.32-14.2% -15.4% 2004 362.00 329.65 390.00 351.61 7.7% 6.7% Today 882.00 711.29 922.00 743.55 4.5% 4.5% SOYA Spot Prices 6 Months Futures Prices Difference Event Nominal Real Nominal Real % % 1988 1059.50 1546.15 1002.38 1432.44-5.4% -7.4% 1996 840.50 921.87 816.00 883.19-2.9% -4.2% 2004 991.50 902.89 732.50 660.40-26.1% -26.9% Today 1560.00 1258.06 1544.00 1245.16-1.0% -1.0% 37

138 134 130 126 122 118 114 110 106 102 98 94 90 86 82 78 74 70 An Important Factor: Oil Crude Oil Future 38 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 oil_apr07 oil_jan08 oil_apr08 oil_23may08 oil_13jun08

In Previous Food Price Peaks, Oil Tended to be in Backwardation C r u d e O Il F u tu r e 40 38 36 oil_ 1988 oil_ 1996 oil_ 2004 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 12 month 15 month 18 month 21 month 24 month 39

The Effect on the Caribbean The Context Growth Inflation The Fiscal Space Current Account Effects on the Balance of Payments Individual Countries Regional Effect 40

Real Growth in the Caribbean 14% 2005 2006 2007 2008F 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas, The Barbados Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent & Grens. Suriname Trinidad and Tobago -4% 41

18% Inflation 2005 2006 2007 2008F 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas, The Barbados Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent & Grens. Suriname Trinidad and Tobago 42

10% 8% Public Sector Balance (% GDP) 2005 2006 2007 2008F 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas, The Barbados Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent & Grens. Suriname Trinidad and Tobago 43

30% The Current Account (% GDP) 2005 2006 2007 2008F 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas, The Barbados Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent & Grens. Suriname Trinidad and Tobago 44

Effects on the Balance of Payments: Worst Case Simulations Effect on prices assumed to be permanent No Quantity Effects Would expect import quantities to fall And export quantities to rise We only consider price changes in a limited number of commodities Beef, Corn, Rice, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat We perform the Simulations with and Without Oil Effects are Large for Some Countries 45

Haiti* (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 4,975 million Total change in US$: - 354.27 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 7.12 % Total -600-500 -400-300 -200-100 0 100 Net Imports Net Exports * Trade data is based on mirrored world trade flows. 46

Haiti* (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 4,975 million Total change in US$: - 508.76 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 10.23 % Total -900-800 -700-600 -500-400 -300-200 -100 0 100 Net Imports Net Exports * Trade data is based on mirrored world trade flows. 47

Jamaica (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Beef Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) GDP 2006 in US$: 10,020 million Total change in US$: - 192.71 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 1.92 % Total -250-200 -150-100 -50 0 50 100 Net Imports Net Exports 48

Jamaica (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil Rice Soybean Sugar GDP 2006 in US$: 10,020 million Total change in US$: - 898.02 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 8.96 % Wheat Total -2000-1500 -1000-500 0 500 Net Imports Net Exports 49

The Caribbean and Latin America CCB Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas, The Barbados Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica St Kitts & Nevis St Lucia St Vincent & The Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Net Impact (% GDP) Six products Six products plus oil -0.44-4.88 n/a -8.12-1.00-4.04-0.64-4.29-0.92-3.23 14.36-0.16-7.12-10.23-1.92-8.96-0.66-3.17-0.62-4.88-0.66-4.69-0.30 n/a -0.54 4.89 Net Impact (% GDP) Six products Six products CSC plus oil Argentina 2.63 4.03 Brazil 0.44 0.20 Chile -0.20-1.89 Paraguay 8.51 5.05 Uruguay 3.53 1.39 Net Impact (% GDP) Six products Six products CAN plus oil Bolivia -0.52-0.03 Colombia -0.59 1.37 Ecuador -0.33 6.85 Peru -0.65-1.31 Venezuela -0.21 13.72 Net Impact (% GDP) Six products Six products CID plus oil Belize -0.90-5.44 Costa Rica -1.52-3.88 Dominican Republic -0.87-3.13 El Salvador -1.11-3.49 Guatemala -0.84-2.60 Honduras -1.77-7.02 Mexico -0.41 1.36 Nicaragua -0.94-6.19 Panama -0.46-1.85 50

Balance of Payments Effects (1) The effect of oil prices dominates that of food prices for most countries (not Haiti) If the shock is persistent; the effects are serious for several Caribbean nation countries may be considerably poorer - especially if oil prices remain high It would be a high risk strategy to assume that the shock is short-lived and borrow, especially given the current fiscal space. 51

Balance of Payments Effects (2) But this is a worst case scenario Quantities will adjust especially if prices are passed through In general it may be best to allow pass through, monitoring second round effects on inflation And ensure the vulnerable are protected This maintains meaningful price signals and hence minimizes the macro impact, the more prices are distorted the greater the macro impact will be 52

Conclusions (1) Commodity Prices have risen due to multiple factors As is generally the case, when availability falls prices peak very sharply and become highly volatile Some factors may be short lived (more on supply side) but demand factors and energy prices suggest persistence The markets anticipate price rises as likely as falls; no clear expectation of decreases as in previous booms Commodity theory suggests we are in a boom but large uncertainty as how long it will last, but prices will eventually fall back 53

Conclusions (2) The challenge is how to make policy in such circumstances; it s s a very risky bet to assume a short-lived boom. Should look for policy interventions that would be useful whether temporary or permanent, or interventions that can be reversed easily if prices fall back sharply. Protect the vulnerable and allow markets to respond efficiently to prices. 54

Appendix Individual Country Effects 55

Antigua & Barbuda (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 998 million Total change in US$: - 4.41 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.44 % Net Imports Net Exports 56

Antigua & Barbuda (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 998 million Total change in US$: - 48.71 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 4.88 % Net Imports Net Exports 57

Barbados (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Beef Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice GDP 2006 in US$: 3,430 million Soybean Sugar Wheat Total change in US$: - 34.46 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 1.0 % Total -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 Net Imports Net Exports 58

Barbados (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil GDP 2006 in US$: 3,430 million Rice Soybean Sugar Total change in US$: - 138.58 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 4.04 % Wheat Total -300-250 -200-150 -100-50 0 50 Net Imports Net Exports 59

Dominica (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Beef Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 319 million Total change in US$: - 2.05 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.64 % Total -4.00-3.50-3.00-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.50 0.00 Net Imports Net Exports 60

Dominica (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 319 million Total change in US$: - 13.68 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 4.29 % Net Imports Net Exports 61

Grenada (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 525 million Total change in US$: - 4.84 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.92% Net Imports Net Exports 62

Grenada (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 525 million Total change in US$: - 16.98 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 3.23% Net Imports Net Exports 63

Guyana (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Beef Maize Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) GDP 2006 in US$: 896 million Rice Soybean Total change in US$: 128.73 million Sugar Wheat Total change as a share of GDP: 14.36 % Total -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Net Imports Net Exports 64

Guyana (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 896 million Total change in US$: -1.42 million Total change as a share of GDP: -0.16% Total -400-300 -200-100 0 100 200 300 Net Imports Net Exports 65

St. Kitts and Nevis (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Beef Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 477 million Total change in US$: - 3.13 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.66 % Total -4.00-3.00-2.00-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Net Imports Net Exports 70

St. Kitts and Nevis (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 477 million Total change in US$: - 15.13 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 3.17 % Net Imports Net Exports 71

St. Lucia (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Beef Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 899 million Total change in US$: - 5.55 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.62 % Total -14.00-12.00-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.00 0.00 Net Imports Net Exports 72

St. Lucia (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 899 million Total change in US$: - 43.91 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 4.88 % Net Imports Net Exports 73

St. Vincent and the Grenadines (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Beef Maize Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat GDP 2006 in US$: 423 million Total change in US$: - 2.79 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.66% Total -10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 Net Imports Net Exports 74

St. Vincent and the Grenadines (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions ) GDP 2006 in US$: 423 million Total change in US$: - 19.83 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 4.69% Net Imports Net Exports 75

Suriname (Trade Balance, U$S Millions ) Average 2003-2005 Beef Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize Rice Soybean GDP 2006 in US$: 2,115 million Total change in US$: - 6.45 million Sugar Wheat Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.3 % Total -16-14 -12-10 -8-6 -4-2 0 Net Imports Net Exports 76

Trinidad & Tobago (Trade Balance, U$S Millions) Average 2003-2005 Beef Maize Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) GDP 2006 in US$: 8,140 million Rice Soybean Sugar Total change in US$: - 98.52 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 0.54 % Wheat Total -180-160 -140-120 -100-80 -60-40 -20 0 20 Net Imports Net Exports 77

Trinidad & Tobago (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil Rice Soybean Sugar GDP 2006 in US$: 8,140 million Total change in US$: 887.14 million Total change as a share of GDP: 4.89 % Wheat Total -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Net Imports Net Exports 78

The Bahamas* (Trade Balance including oil, U$S Millions) Beef Average 2003-2005 Price Shock (Jan'06- Apr'08) Maize oil GDP 2003 in US$: 5,502 million Rice Soybean Sugar Wheat Total change in US$: - 446.5 million Total change as a share of GDP: - 8.12 % Total -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Net Imports Net Exports * Trade data is available for 2006 and GDP data for 2003. 79