MARINTEK The Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute Ocean laboratory to test out offshore construction and vessel concepts 50 x 80 meter Towing tank 260 meter Engine laboratory Raiser laboratory Profit made is reinvested MARINTEK
The development of the Ocean Space Centre and the new infrastructure by 2020 - Wave basin 230 x 35 m - Ocean laboratory 30 m depth - New engine laboratory - New raiser laboratory - Upgrade of existing ocean laboratory MARINTEK 3
Outline of presentation Why bother about maritime transport in a climate change setting The focus of these studies (Work in progress) Some Observations
Development of Population, Energy consumption, GDP, transport and trade 1950 2010 (All monetary figures adj. to 2010) Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population in millions Energy Consumption in million ton oil equivalents GDP in billion USD Maritime transport in million tons World trade in billion USD World trade in percenttage of GDP 2 500 2 100 8 200 500 400 5% 3 000 3 300 10 900 1 200 800 7% 3 700 4 900 15 000 2 600 1 400 9% 4 500 6 600 27 800 3 700 3 500 13% 5 300 8 100 34 200 4 000 5 400 16% 6 000 9 400 40 400 6 000 8 100 20% 6 900 12 000 63 100 8 000 15 100 24% Percentage increase from 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20% 60% 30% 140% 100% 50% 130% 80% 420% 250% 80% 210% 240% 640% 770% 110% 290% 320% 700% 1 250% 140% 350% 390% 1 100% 1 900% 180% 470% 670% 1 500% 3 700% 5
Emissions from ships To Air Exhaust gas from ship machinery Freon and Halon leakage from cooling equipment VOC from the loading and discharging of crude oil and oil products To Sea Sewage Oil spills from engine room Ballast water Antifouling and paint Washing of cargo compartments 6
International shipping CO 2 emission scenarios until 2050 [Source: IMO 2009] Growth figures according to IPCC scenarios Gap between emission scenarios and 450 ppm target 350 % 300 % 250 % Annual CO2 emissions with business as usual Annual CO2 emissions with 450 ppm CO2 emission versus transport work to reach 450 ppm target 200 % 150 % 100 % 50 % 0 % 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Shipping represents a significant share of the global anthropogenic emissions Measured by weight CO 2 1 050 Million ton NOx 25 Million ton SO 2 15 Million ton Measured by % of total NOx 10.0 15 % SO 2 4.0 9 % CO 2 2.8 4 % Source IMO 2009 GHG study: (Buhaug et al., 2009) 8
The Impact of ship emissions is large in Europe due to the density of ship traffic 9 Source: International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set 9
High shipping traffic density in combination with wind and weather pattern high levels of sulphur and nitrate deposits in Western Europe Source: Dalsøren et al. 2009 10
Hull Form Lindstad, H., Steen, S., Sandass, I. 2014. Assessment of profit, cost, and emissions for slender bulk vessel designs. Transportation Research Part D 29(2014) 32-39 Lindstad, H., Jullumstrø, E., Sandass, 2013. Reduction in cost and emissions with new bulk ships designed enabled by the Panama Canal expansion. Energy Policy 59 (2013), Page 341-349. Logistics & Operation Fagerholt, K., Lindstad, H., 2000. Optimal policies for maintaining a supply service in the Norwegian Sea. The International Journal of Management Science. Omega 28 (2000) 269 275. Cargo Handling concepts Lindstad, H., Asbjørnslett, B., E. Pedersen, J., T. 2012, Green Maritime Logistics and Sustainability. In Song D., W, Panayides, P., M. (Eds.) Maritime Logistics: Contemporary Issues (2012), Page 227 243, Emerald, ISBN 978-1-78052-340-8. Lindstad, H. Asbjørnslett, B. E., Strømman, A., H., 2012, The Importance of economies of scale for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. Energy Policy 46 (2012), Page 386-398 Power Production Lindstad, H. Asbjørnslett, B., E., Jullumstrø, E., 2013. Assessment of profit, cost and emissions by varying speed as a function of sea conditions and freight market. Transportation Research Part D 19 (2013), Page 5-12. Fagerholt, K., Johnsen, A.V., Lindstad, H., 2009. Fleet deployment in liner shipping A case study. Maritime Policy & Management 2009, 5 (397 409)
Transport cost as a function of fuel cost and speed 9000 nm roundtrip (loaded&ballast) Fuel cost Cost at 14 knots Cost minimizing speed Cost at minimizing speed 900 25.5 9.0 20.8 600 19.0 10.0 16.6 300 12.5 12.0 12.0 150 9.2 14.0 9.2 MARINTEK 13
Basic Combustion engine and input and output when engine is adjusted to produce power without any focus on emissions Air 8.5 kg/kwh 21% O 2 79% N 2 Fuel 175 g/kwh 97% HC 3% S Lube 1 g/kwh 97% HC 2.5% CA 0.5% S Heat Exhaust gas 75.8% N 2 13.0% O 2 5.35% H 2 O 94.15% in Subtotal 5.2% CO 2 0.25% NOx = 22 g/kwh (Tier 1 =17) 0.15 % SO 2 0.045 % HC 0.015 % CO 5.66 % in Subtotal BC - Black Carbon PM 2.5 - Particles Other 0.19 % in Subtotal Work Source: Input figures and drawing from Man B & W, animation from wikipedia.org 14
Options for reducing maritime air emisions Reducing global transport volumes and tonnages Reducing fuel consumption per freight unit transported Replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy wind or solar, or batteries with electricity from renewable sources. Diesel engine modification After treatment of the exhaust gas Exchange the diesel engine with other engine technologies Replacing diesel or heavy fuel oil with cleaner fuels in the diesel engine Alternative fuels and engine concepts 15
An approach to reducing the NOx emissions from shipping in Scandinavia The current NOx emissions from shipping in the region Existing incentives to reduce NOx Typical Seagoing vessels in the region Assessment of the Abatement option Conclusions 16
Typical vessel types in the Scandinavian & Baltic trades RoRo General Cargo / Container vessel Dry Bulker / tankers RoPax - Ferry Source: Sea Web, Shipbuilder& Shipowners web site 17
What are the annual fuel consumption and emissions of these vessels The annual fuel consumption is a function of the operational pattern. The table shows average annual fuel consumption for these vessel types and sizes. (Not exact match) I have calculated the NOx emissions based on engines satisfying Tier 2 requirements the cargo vessels have slow speed engines, the RoPax medium speed engines The SO2 emissions are calculated based on fuel consumption and standard HFO Source: Lindstad et al 2012 Ship type & size No of ships Dwt S p e e d Engine size [kw] Fuel per ship in ton Billion ton miles Gram CO 2 per ton km Genera Cargo 15'++ 1215 25341 15 8100 7400 1200 13 General Cargo 10'-15' 710 12434 15 5700 5300 300 20 Dry bulk Handysize 15'-35' 1920 26071 14 6700 6300 1900 11 1400 TEU - container 832 20512 19 12700 8000 400 26 RoRo 25'-35' 49 28403 19 16500 14800 100 19 RoRo 15'-25' 360 18565 19 13900 9900 200 29 RoRo 5'-15' 678 9844 18 9700 6600 100 57 RoPax 5'-10' 231 6643 22 25500 26200 100 18
Typical seagoing vessels in the region - fuel consumption and NOx and SO 2 emissions RoRo 12 000 dwt, 12 000 kw, 19 knots, Engine cost 7.5 MUSD, Total Capex 60 MUSD, Annual fuel 8000 ton, NOx = 600 ton, SO 2 = 250 ton General Cargo / Container vessel 20 000 dwt, 12 000 kw, 17 knots, Engine cost 7.5 MUSD, Total Capex 30 MUSD, Annual fuel 8000 ton, NOx = 600 ton, SO 2 = 250 ton Dry Bulker 24 000 dwt, 6 000 kw, 14 knots, Engine cost 5 MUSD, Total Capex 20 MUSD, Annual fuel 6000 ton, NOx = 450 ton, SO 2 = 190 ton RoPax - Ferry Dwt > 5000 ton, 32 000 kw, Engine cost 20 MUSD, Total Capex?, Annual fuel 30 000 ton, NOx = 1 900 ton, SO 2 = 950 ton Source: Sea Web, Shipbuilder& Shipowners web site, Consumptions & emissions based on Lindstad et al 2012
Fuel characteristics
Emissions as a function of abatement option
Capex and operational cost as a function of abtatement option
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ASSESSMENT OF COST, EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE IMPACT BY NORTHERN SEA ROUTE TRADES VERSUS TRADES THROUGH INDIAN OCEAN AND SUEZ CANAL Haakon Lindstad 1, Ryan M. Bright 2, Anders H. Strømman 2 1 Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway 2 Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway Corresponding author: Haakon@marintek.sintef.no
Ice cover in March & September
GWP20 as a function of fuel
Emissions as a function of power outake
Emissions as a function of power
GWP 20 figures
GWP 100 figures