Some insights about the Russian Rouble Steven Palstermans Head of Strategic Financial Initiatives, Russia & CIS 13 th IRSF, London, 23 April 2013
60 Three to Fourfold Sent and Received FIN Traffic growth since 2003 50 2012 vs. 2003: Threefold to Fourfold growth 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Traffic Sent (Millions) Traffic Received (Millions) Linear (Traffic Sent (Millions)) Linear (Traffic Received (Millions)) Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 2
FIN Payment represents 84% of flows in Russia 63% of payments traffic sent from Russia is domestic, which is by far the main route, followed by US and Germany USA United Kingdom 3. Germany 11 Kmsgs (+17.3%) 11 Kmsgs (+10.6%) Germany Belarus Russia Kazakhstan 1. Domestic 111 Kmsgs (+32%) 13 Kmsgs (+5.5%) 15 Kmsgs (+4.6%) 2. USA Traffic figures: 2012 full year Growth figures: 2012 vs 2011
FIN - Average Daily number of messages Q1 2013 (in million) Total SWIFT All Markets 21 20 19 +10.7% 18 17 16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 2013 Actuals Best month ever Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 4
FIN - Average Daily number of messages Q1 2013 (in thousands) Russia All Markets 280 Current Rank: 17 230 +63% 180 130 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 2013 Actuals Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 5
Evolution of the share of the Russian Rouble payments worldwide and comparison with the Chinese and South African currencies Share among cross-border payments based on value Share among cross-border and domestic payments based on value 0.60% RUB share: +105,8% In 24 months RUB share: +138,2% In 24 months 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% RUB CNY 0.20% ZAR 0.10% 0.00% Currency activity share evolution in international payments value from Jan-11 to Dec-12. Other BRIC+ currencies have an activity share of 0% Currency activity share evolution in payments value from Jan-11 to Dec-12. Other BRIC+ currencies have an activity share of 0% Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 6
Evolution of the main sending and receiving countries of cross-border payments denominated in Russian Rouble Share of the main sending countries Share of the main receiving countries 36,6% Jan-11 38,3% Dec-12 5,8% Jan-11 14,1% Jan-11 6,6% Dec-12 20,3% Dec-12 Amount sent of payments, evolution from Jan-11 to Dec-12 Amount received of payments, evolution from Jan-11 to Dec-12 Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 7
Evolution of the number of countries and financial institutions sending or receiving payments in Russian Rouble Number of countries Number of financial institutions +17% In 24 months +21,4% In 24 months Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 8
Introduction: SWIFT statistics are unique GDP and SWIFT Payments show a similar trend Year on Year quarterly growth rates * OECD Europe Q4 2010 is provisional 9 Source: SWIFT, OECD
Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011-6 -5 OECD GDP Growth Rate (in %) 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 2 3 4 OECD GDP actual figures published by OECD - GDP estimates by SWIFT The SWIFT Index Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 1.2 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 (Nowcast) 1.6 Q2 2013 (Forecast) 1.7 10
The SWIFT Index 5 4 3 EU27 actual GDP figures as published by OECD - GDP estimates by SWIFT EU27 GDP Growth Rate (in %) 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-0.2 0.0 0.2-5 -6 11
Rouble Tracker example of correlation GDP and SWIFT Payments show a similar trend Year on Year quarterly growth rates Russian GDP growth (IMF) SWIFT commercial payments growth 10 20% 8 8.2 8.5 6 4 6.4 5.2 4.3 4.3 15% 3.7 10% 2 0 5% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-2 -4 0% -6-5% -8-7.8-10 -10% Moscow Business Forum 10 Apr 2013 - For conference attendees * 12 Source: SWIFT, IMF
Way forward SWIFT to actively take part in several working groups within the MIFC Working Group SWIFT to continue its cooperation with TheCityUK on MIFC SWIFT to become member of the National Payment Council Continue discussions with the Bank of Russia to offer equal functionality for BESP via the SWIFT channel Actively cooperate with Central Bank of Russia and CLS on implementing the Russian Rouble as a CLS currency SWIFT and ISO20022 standards used in Russia for Corporate-to-Bank communication Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 13
Q&A
Thank you! Steven Palstermans Head of Strategic Financial Initiatives, Russia & CIS SWIFT Avenue Adele 1 B- 1310 La Hulpe Belgium T +32 2 655 3111 D +32 2 655 4099 F +32 2 655 3752 M +32 478 403023 +7 903 1646095 steven.palstermans@swift.com swift.com E W 15
Evolution of the value of FX confirmation sent worldwide Comparison between two non CLS currencies: the Russian Rouble and the Chinese Renminbi 350.00% 300.00% RUB, 287% 250.00% 200.00% CNY, 223% 150.00% 100.00% 50.00% 0.00% Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April 2013-13th IRSF 16