Maritime Wirtschaft Eine nationale Chance Verknüpfung von Ökonomie und Ökologie als Schlüssel zum Erfolg 8. November 2010, Berlin - Vortrag Dr. Hermann J. Klein Mitglied des Vorstandes GL Your competitive edge Take the lead through innovation
Produktionsstandort China Two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes 60% of cell phones 55% of DVDs Over half of all digital cameras 30% of personal computers 75% of children s toys Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 2
Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 3 Economy of Scale
The size of boxships is further increasing - technical limits - operational limits - commercial limits and optimum Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 4
Die Panama-Kanal Erweiterung und die Auswirkungen auf die Schifffahrt Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 5
Heutiges und zukünftiges Panamax-Schiff The proposed new Panamax vessel has a capacity of about 12,000 TEUs Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 6
14.000 TEU Container Ship MSC Danit of MSC Largest Container Ship of the World The new Post-Panamax Vessels with B = 51,2m Builder: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Korea Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 7
Schiffsdesign: Das Verhältnis muss stimmen! Ladungsoptimierung Energieaufwand http://www.omega-ems.com/images/13635-hvad-skal-maales---uk.gif Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 8
Steigende Ölpreise 1,50 pro Liter Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 9
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 84 95 106 96 68 93 138 117 134 153 155 234 293 345 472 354 450 Fuel Oil Prices Bunker 380 cst, Rotterdam Yearly Average prices, per metric ton $ per Tonne 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Average 2010 YTD $ 450 50 0 Source: Clarksons Research, August 2010 Years Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 10
Kraftstoffverbrauch für den Verkehrssektor in China und Indien Quelle: IEA WEO 2007 Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 11
USD / ton Mögliche Entwicklung der Kraftstoffkosten 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2010 IFO 380 MDO premium CO2 surcharge A CO 2 -emission trading may start in 2013. Associated costs are based on IPCC reports. Price for HFO will continue to increase in the long run (2.5% per year assumed) Source: GL research. The analysis excludes inflation effects. Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 12 In 2020, SO x -limits for fuel globally apply. Diesel quality fuels demand a premium, estimated to be 50% of HFO price 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Entwicklung Umweltauflagen Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 13
The future climate and the environment Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 14
Shipping CO 2 -emissions in a global context Deforestation contributes by 17% to global GHG emissions source: MEPC Kongress 597INF.10 Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 15
1 t HFO Zusammenhang Kraftstoffverbrauch und CO 2 -Emission Handelsschiffe nutzen heute meist Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) als Brennstoff für die Hauptmaschinen. Für HFO mit einem Kohlenstoffmassenanteil von 85% liegt die spezifische CO 2 - Emission bei (ca.) 3,114 t / t HFO. Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 16
725,2 776,1 833,6 860 917 974 1.014 1.048 1.054 1.061 1.082 1.111 1.133 1.151 1.172 Worldwide Fleet development [mgt] 1.600 50.000 1.400 1.200 2,1% * 2,0% * 40.000 Million GT 1.000 800 6,1% * 30.000 No. of vessels 600 20.000 400 10.000 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Clarksons Research, March 2010 (Vessel > 2.000 GT) Years * = average yearly growth based on GT 0 Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 17
million tonnes CO2 CO2 Emission Development 1200 1000 800 600 400-20% - 40 % Discussed Emission target (till UNFCCC Copenhagen): -20% of 2005 till 2020 200 0 2005 2020 Source: IMO GHG Inventory Study Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 18
How to improve the EEDI value EEDI = power * spec. fuel consumption * emission factor capacity * speed Strong effect Reduce installed power through better design and / or reduced speed Weaker effect Reduce spec. fuel consumption of engines Use fuels with lower emission factor Increase capacity Exploit the yet not defined elements (weather factor, novel technologies) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 19
How to improve the EEOI value EEOI = fuel consumption * emission factor cargo * distance Strong effect Reduce fuel consumption with energy-efficient ship and equipment (fuel consumed by main and auxiliary engines will be counted) Increase utilisation of vessel by taking more cargo Weaker effect Use fuels with lower emission factor (e.g., LNG) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 20
Timeline: environmental regulations NO x, Tier III, ECA 0.1% S, SECA Ballast water * Ship Recycling * CO 2 market measures * CO 2 technical measures * 3.5% S, global NO x Tier I, global NO x Tier II, global Fuel tank protection 1% S, SECA 0.1% S, EU ports review 0.5% S, global 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 *) estimated entry into force Hafenratsitzung 14. September 2010 No. 21
There exist many possibilities to improve ship efficiency GL helps to identify the best Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 22
Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 23 Slow Steaming
Installed power (kw) Installed power increases disproportionally with increasing speed 5000 TEU 8000 TEU 12000 TEU 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 for 8000 TEU: approx. 20.000 kw saving when speed is reduced from 25 knots to 22 knots 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Speed (knots) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 24
Total costs for fleet per year (musd) Fleet costs in 2005 - just five years ago 5000 TEU 8000 TEU 12000 TEU 800 700 600 14 ships 12 ships 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships Assumptions: Fuel cost 150 USD/t TEU value: 40.000 USD Interest rate: 10% 500 Charter rates 400 30.000 $/d (5000 TEU) 45.000 $/d (8000 TEU) 300 60.000 $/d (12000 TEU) 200 100 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Speed (knots) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 25
Total costs for fleet per year (musd) Fleet costs a look into the future (higher fuel costs will call for higher cargo value) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 5000 TEU 8000 TEU 12000 TEU 14 ships 12 ships 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Speed (knots) Assumptions: Interest rate 10% Container 60.000 USD Fuel cost 900 USD/t Charter rates 30.000 $/d (5000 TEU) 45.000 $/d (8000 TEU) 60.000 $/d (12000 TEU) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 26
Fleet CO 2 -emissions a look into the future 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 Fleet CO2 emissions (tons per year) 5000 TEU 8000 TEU 12000 TEU 14 ships 12 ships 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships Assumption: Carbon factor: 3.1144 gco2/g fuel 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Speed (knots) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 27
What can be done? Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 28
Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 29
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 mgt Global Scrappings by vessel type 35 30 Bulker Tanker Container Other 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010-2012 Forecast Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 30 Comment: Ship Criteria: seagoing vessels only, > 100 GT Source: Fairplay; Clarksons 2010-03-31
Ship efficiency investment economics better economics better designs better efficiency better designs better production current designs safety level Higher safety operating costs Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 31
The future is now? Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 32
EEDI the baseline for bulk carriers (GHG WG2/2/7, by Denmark) Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 33
First indication of future required EEDI (MEPC 60/4/36, submitted by Japan) The required EEDI is defined by a reduction relative to the baseline. MEPC 60/4/36 suggests an initial reduction of 10% for all ship types, based on an assessment of application of possible technologies. Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 34
Optimization of a container carrier Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 35 No. 35
RT / RT Baseline [%] @ 24 kn, 14 m/14 m Lines optimization DoE selected Pareto-Frontiers Each single red cross represents a full hull design and analysis approx. 16.000 in total 127,000,000 72,000,000 29,500,000 V/V Baseline / Baseline [%] @ 14 m/14 m Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 36 No. 36
The Answers to New Challenges Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 37
Propulsion Assistance by Wind Kite Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 38
Propulsion Assistance by Flettner Rotor Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 39
Propulsion by Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 40
Propulsion by Solar Power Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 41
HFO versus LNG Pressure tanks type C, maintain pressure using boiler Sealed tank space, no pumps inside, no access during operation Gas preparation with LT-cooling water in separate room Emergency venting t.b.d. Minimum distance to outer hull: 760mm Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 42
USD / mmbtu Historic records of fuel prices Gas and ship fuel prices (monthly averages) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 NG futures NYMEX US LNG im ports LNG Zeebrugge HFO Rotterdam MGO Rotterdam but consider small scale LNG supply costs! 0 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Okt 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Okt 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Okt 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Okt 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Sources: EIA, apxgroup.com, x-rates.com, bunkerw orld.com NG: Natural Gas, LNG: Liquefied NG, HFO: heavy fuel oil (IFO 380), MGO: marine gas oil, BTU: British thermal Unit = 1,06 kj Kongress Maritime Wirtschaft, Berlin 8. November 2010 No. 43
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit! Dr Hermann J. Klein Mitglied des Vorstandes Tel: +49 40 36149 321 Fax: +49 40 36149 936 Email: hermann.klein@gl-group.com