BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Future Automotive Giants Tim Armstrong Associate Director, Eastern Europe & Middle East and Africa
Presentation Outline Sources of growth in the world Where do BRICs fit? BRICs market facts and growth potential Positioning to access the BRICs markets bodystyle, segment, and pricing World car projects Aspects of production Summary Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 2
World GDP BRICs Are Largest Developing Markets in Top Fifteen Australia Mexico Brazil South Korea India Canada Spain Russia Italy France United Kingdom Germany China Nominal GDP $US 25 & 21 Ranked by 21 Japan United States 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, 16, 18, Bns US Dollars Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 3
World Light Vehicle Demand Growth 2-5 Top 15 and Bottom 5 USA S. KOREA POLAND ITALY NETHERLANDS ROMANIA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL MALAYSIA INDONESIA SOUTH AFRICA UKRAINE SPAIN MEXICO U.K. THAILAND INDIA RUSSIA IRAN CHINA -379-257 -241-169 -161 17 192 2 27 27 28 213 234 26 34 432 473 512 529 World growth 2-5: 7.31 million Of which BRICs: 4.67 million = 64% 3,491-1, -5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, Incremental Change in Vehicle Demand Thousands Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 4
Sources of Growth BRICs are Part of a Broader Subset Market Openness Maturity Matrix Open Markets Closed Markets High Maturity (>3 Cars / 1 Persons) Characteristics: High number of cars per capita & low import barriers i.e. Triad Markets, Australia, Kuwait 67% Closed = High CBU tariffs (>2%), Quota s or Substantial Non Tariff Barriers Empty Quadrant Developing Low Maturity (<3 cars / 1 Persons) Characteristics: Low number of cars per capita & low import barriers 1% i.e. Mexico, Gulf CC, Oman Turkey, South-Korea, Caribbean, Slovakia Characteristics: Low number of cars per capita & high import barriers 23% i.e. Russia, China India, Egypt, Mercosur-Region Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 5
Global Matrix Market Openness Maturity Mature-Open (M-O), Developing-Open (D-O), Developing-Closed (D-C) Open Markets Closed Markets High Maturity (>3 Cars / 1 Persons) Millions 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 5 CAGR 96 5:.2% CAGR 6 17:.7% M-O 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 Empty Quadrant Low Maturity (<3 cars / 1 Persons) Millions 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 D-O CAGR 96 5: 1.8% CAGR 6 17: 2.2% 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 Millions 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CAGR 96 5: 9.4% CAGR 6 17: 5.1% D-C 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 6
Light Vehicle Sales in 21 in Developing-Closed (D-C) Countries BOLIVIA PARAGUAY URUGUAY UZBEKISTAN PERU BELARUS VIETNAM MOROCCO ECUADOR COLOMBIA EGYPT PHILIPPINES PAKISTAN VENEZUELA UKRAINE ARGENTINA INDONESIA MALAYSIA SOUTH AFRICA THAILAND IRAN BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA CAR LCV BRICs = 74% of Total Light Vehicle Sales in 21 = 12.5m Cars & 4.6m LCVs 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, Thousands Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 7
Segmentation Differences in COMDe Segment Market Share 24% A Segment D-C D-O M-O 4% B Segment D-C D-O M-O 35% 18% 3% 25% 12% 2% 15% 6% 1% 5% % 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 % 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 36% D-C D-O M-O 4% D-C D-O M-O 32% 32% 24% 28% 16% 24% 8% 2% 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 C Segment % 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 217 D Segment Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 8
BRICs Key Economic Indicators 25 Brazil Russia India China Population (millions) 184.2 142.5 197.1 1,38.9 GDP Nom. (US$ billions) 796 762.8 795 2,225.2 Total Nom. GDP Growth 2-5 (%) 32 193 71 86 GDP Per Capita (US$) 4,319 5,353 725 1,7 GDP Per Capita (US$) PPP 9,1 15,929 4,368 6,368 Merchandise Imports (% GDP) 9.2 16.4 15.9 29.7 Merchandise Exports (% GDP) 14.9 31.9 11.1 34.9 Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 9
Markets Are Highly Protected and Risky Brazil Russia India China Legacy automobile industry No Yes No No Tariffs on CBUs 35% 25% 11% 3% Quotas Argentina No End 21 To 25 Old models produced Yes Yes Yes Yes Used car penetration Low 317k V. Low V. Low Automobile imports (% new LV sales) 5.% 29.% 1.% 2.% Automobile exports (% LV prod) 3.6% 9.1% 11.5% 3-4% Global Insight Country Risk 2.72 2.98 2.76 2.84 OEM investment Moderate Low Moderate High Imports from other BRICs Low Low Nil Nil Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 1
Automotive Demand Market Summary 25 Thousands 6 5 4 LV Sales 1995-25 6, LV Sales 25 China Thousands 5, Used Imports LCV 4, CAR 2,67 3 3, Brazil Russia 2 1 India 2, 1, 284 1,33 317 196 1,413 35 921 3,293 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA Brazil Russia India China Light vehicle sales (millions) 1.6 1.6 1.2 5.4 LV sales per population 8.7 11.2 1.7 4.1 Car ownership per population 1. 178. 7.3 1.1 Car parc (millions) 18.17 25.46 8.1 12.8 Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 11
BRICs: Similarities and Differences in Vehicle Markets CBrazil Historically, market has nurtured and protected a domestic industry Established a taxation system that favored small cars A and B segment, with 1.L or smaller engines. It is said, that Brazil gave birth to the notion of world car with the Fiat Project 178 Have always tried to build and design vehicles that feature their own tastes, very proud of Made in Brazil. The best example is, the VW Gol India Historically, institutional demand has played a limited role. Private demand has formed the core demand Outdated technology history, low vehicle price and limited institutional demand characterise segmentation. Maruti s role as national car project reinforced the role of the small affordable car Skewed segmentation profile. Strong growth in small affordable car segments. Best opportunities for companies with strength in affordable small cars Russia Private demand has formed the core demand. Institutional demand has played a limited role Segmentation partitioned between Soviet era boxproducts, emerging western imports and used car imports Skewed segmentation profile towards larger cars and SUVs. Limited LCV activity. Growth to come from B and C and SUV segments CChina Historically, vehicle demand mainly from institutional sector (government, SOEs, taxis) Institutional bias has supported sales of mediumsize and larger cars Evolution of private demand is boosting sales of compacts and sub-compacts Balanced growth in all parts of passenger car market, which provides opportunities for most companies Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 12
Company and Market Specific Success Factors Product range Model cycle Market growth Segment Brand image Bodystyle Geographical footprint Powertrain Strategic objectives Pricing Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 13
BRICs Total LV Demand Will Grow 7.2m Units (72%) 25-1 of Which Cars by 5.5m Units (78%) Thousands 3 25 2 Car Thousands 3 25 2 Car 15 15 1 5 LCV 1 5 LCV 1997 1999 21 23 25 Thousands 27 29 211 213 215 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 3 25 2 15 Brazil: 21: Total Sales of 2.5 Million Units Car Sales 1.7 million, LCV Sales.35m Car Thousands 1 9 8 7 6 5 Russia: 21: Total Sales of 2.5 Million Units Car Sales 2.24 million, LCV Sales.29 m Car 1 5 LCV 4 3 2 LCV 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 1 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 India: 21: Total Sales of 2.65 Million Units Car Sales 1.9 million, LCV Sales.74m China: 21: Total Sales of 9.8 Million Units Car Sales 6.6 million, LCV Sales 3.2 m Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 14
BRICs Product Placement Car Sales 21 25 2 15 1 5 CABRIO COUPE ESTATE HATCH MPV ROADSTER SEDAN SUV D E A BC A B C D E Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 15
BRICs Product Placement Car Sales 21 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CABRIO 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 COUPE CABRIO COUPE ESTATE ESTATE HATCH HATCH MPV MPV ROADSTER ROADSTER SEDAN SEDAN SUV SUV D E A BC A B C D E E A BCD Russia India A B C D E 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 16 CABRIO 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 COUPE CABRIO COUPE ESTATE ESTATE HATCH HATCH Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 16 MPV MPV ROADSTER ROADSTER SEDAN SEDAN SUV SUV E A BCD E A BCD Brazil A B C D E China A B C D E
Russia Car Pricing and Purchasing Power Car Prices and Sales 22 and 25 Euro 1 9 8 In 25 7 1m cars sold under 1, euro Car price 22 Price euro 6 5 4 245, cars 1, 2, euro, 7, cars 2, - 3, euro, 4, cars 3, - 5, euro Car price 25 3 2 1 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Cumulative Sales Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 17
Russia Car Pricing and Purchasing Power Segments Have Different Pricing Possibilities 1 Prices in Euros in 25 Price euro 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 A B C D E MPV SUV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Cumulative Sales Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 18
World Cars Competitive Space Content/ Price High 1 5 Price/content trade off Toyota Aygo Tata Microcar Ford Ka II Hyundai Getz VW Fox Toyota project Ford B24 Chevy Aveo Nissan project Peugeot 26 Opel Corsa Skoda Fabia Fiat Palio/ Siena VW Gol Fiat D2 Price/size trade off Dacia Logan = engineered World Car = derivative (decontented) vehicle Low Small Vehicle Size/Segment Large 3 -D C olu mn 1 Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 19
The 178 Palio Project the First World Car Launched in 1996 in Brazil First attempt at a world car same basic design built in different markets B segment car with four body styles Hatch (Palio) Sedan (Siena/Petra/Albea) Estate (Weekend), Pup (Strada) Production peaked at 45, cars in 1997 Never really got beyond Brazil Russia crashed in 1998, India & China were much smaller markets with different segmentation and buyers Styling uninspiring for Poland, Turkey Thousand units Thousand units 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2 2 Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 178 platform production by model 26 STRADA SIENA PETRA PALIO WEEKEND PALIO ALBEA VENEZUELA TURKEY SOUTH AFRICA RUSSIA POLAND MOROCCO IRAN INDIA EGYPT CHINA BRAZIL ARGENTINA 178 platform production by country
The Logan Project (X9) Initiated in 1998, Renault acquired Dacia in 1999. Model focused on 'Design to Cost C segment, based on a modified B platform, using frontal chassis modules borrowed from the X65 platform and rear chassis modules of the B platform Bodystyles Sedan, Estate - October 26, Hatchback displayed in Paris in September 26, Pickup launched in early 27, 4x4 under consideration for around 28 or 29 Economies of scale achieved by producing 2, units per annum in Romania and centralising its CKD activity in the country, High potential for cost amortisation and/or reduction from carry-over parts, shared platform, localising production in low-cost bases and strict integration target in purchasing Powertrain: 1.4l, 1.6l petrol, 1.5l diesel 25 26 27 28 CKD Output 3, 13, 48, 589, Dacia Sales in Romania Dacia 113,276 18, 95, 15, Sales on export markets 57,994 91,45 14,9 181,95 Source: Dacia Dacia Expansion Plans Total Annual Capacity Share of CKD Used Romania 235, N.A Russia 6, 7% Colombia 15, 7% Morocco 3, 7% Iran 3, 4% India 5, 5% Brazil N/K 3% Source: Dacia Logan Programme Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 21
Production Characteristics in BRICs High tariff barriers makes local production a key element in selling into BRICs Trade barriers prevent inter-bric trade, cannot easily produce in one BRIC and sell into another Low export potential means multiple production projects across several BRICs OEMs will specialise production to targeted segments within BRICs markets and should look beyond BRICs too Production likely to remain low and fragmented for some time - scale economies are harder to achieve BRICs type cars will still be among the most successful models produced here, but no super-model emerges to dominate all markets Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 22
BRICs Production by Group and Country in 21 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 AVTOVAZ FIAT GROUP FORD GM HONDA HYUNDAI NISSAN PSA RENAULT SUZUKI TATA TOYOTA Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 23 VW GROUP BRA CHN RUS IND
BRICs Production by Group and Segment in 21 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 AVTOVAZ FIAT GROUP FORD GM HONDA HYUNDAI NISSAN PSA RENAULT SUZUKI TATA TOYOTA Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 24 VW GROUP D E C B A
Summary BRICs are the largest countries among D-C markets but not the only ones Total demand growth is impressive but weighted to China Closed markets yield: Ongoing and strong demand differences Segmentation, bodystyle, pricing and powertrain differences will remain Fragmented and low volume production across several markets A multitude of world cars will evolve reflecting company differences and objectives These cars will still be among the most successful models Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. 25
Thank You Tim Armstrong Associate Director, Eastern Europe & Middle East and Africa E-mail: tim.armstrong@globalinsight.com