Decipher the Vehicle Manufacturers Future Platform Strategies, and the Revolution of the Modular Approach Implications and Opportunities

Transcription

1 Decipher the Vehicle Manufacturers Future Platform Strategies, and the Revolution of the Modular Approach Implications and Opportunities June 2012

2 Presentation Agenda Introduction to Platform Strategy Definitions Participants - Key Global OEM Groups Overview of Key Global OEM Groups Platforms and Platform Strategies Introduction to Modular Approach Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 2

3 Million Units Global Automotive Production 2020 Regional Overview Asia will emerge as a production hub, with about half the vehicles globally, manufactured here. China will account for 28 per cent out of it. Automotive Industry Vision: Light-vehicle Production, Global, 2010 and million Vehicles 71.7 million Vehicles Western Europe 18.0% South America.0% North America 1.0% The Middle East Eastern 2.0% Europe 8.0% Thailand 2.3 Asia - Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New Zealand Eastern Europe Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine The Middle East Egypt, Iran North America - Canada, Mexico, USA.7 million Other 2. Korea 4.0 India 8.3 Japan 10. China million.0 million 1. million 20 China.3 million Asia 28.0 Argentina Mexico 3.2 Italy Others % Turkey 1. Others Poland Canada UK Others 0. Spain Italy Africa 2. million Others 3.8 Russia 1. France % 1.0 Million USA Russia 3.2 Others Brazil 4. Germany.4 Iran Africa Asia Eastern Europe Middle East North America South America Western Europe Note: Africa - South Africa South America - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela CAGR : 4.3% 2020 Others 1% Western Europe 1.0% South America.0% North America 1.0% The Middle East 2.0% Eastern Europe.0% Africa 1.0% Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Note: Vehicle Sales in Million Units Includes all Light Vehicle: Passenger Vehicles and Light Commercial Vehicles (less than 3. ton) Note: All figures are rounded; The base year is Source : LMC Automotive Forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis Asia 1.0%

4 A - BASIC B - SUBCOMPACT C - COMPACT D - MIDSIZE E - LARGE F - LARGE- PLUS G - SPORTS MPV - MPV P - PICKUP SUV - SUV V - VAN U- UNCLASSIFIED Production Volumes Millions Which Segment Cars Are Popular Current and Future? By Volumes: A,B,C segments; By Increase in Percent Share of Total: A, B Platform Strategy: Production Volumes by Segment, Global, 2010 and ~% of Total Volumes Segment Source: JD Power, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 4

5 How is Platform Different from Architecture? Platform Strategy is a Lego- Approach, Block-by-Block Construction Platform Strategy: Representation, Global, 2010 Emerging Modular Approach to Replace Conventional Platform Strategy-way

6 Number of Platforms How does the Roadmap Appear? A Reduction in Total number of Platforms Expected by Platform Strategy: Platform Reduction Plan of Key Global OEMs, Global, 2010 and (30.%) 2010 Total Platforms 2010 Shared Platforms 2020 Total Platforms 2020 Shared Platforms 14 (14.%) Geely Group Daimler Group BMW Group Tata Group PSA Group Fiat-Chrysler Group Ford Group Hyundai Group General Motors Group Renault-Nissan Group Toyota Group Volkswagen Group Year

7 Pricing Strategy Industry Consolidation But Why are OEMs Keen to Adopt Platform Strategy? Introduction to Market Forces and Environment Explains Platform Strategy: Introduction to Market Forces and Environment, Global, CONSUMER PERSONALIZATION INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION Consumer Personalisation OEMs Platform Standardisation Strategy Cost Pressure PRICING STRATEGY COST PRESSURES 7

8 Average Models Per Platform Sought-after zones Which OEM Groups Have the Advantage? Models vs. Platform Segmentation Analysis Reveals the Shining Stars Platform Strategy: OEM Group Comparison, Global, High Advantage Moderate Advantage Low Advantage 8 Daimler Group Volkswagen Group PSA Group Geely Group 4 2 BMW Group Ford Group Tata Group Fiat-Chrysler Group General Motors Group Hyundai Group Renault-Nissan Group Toyota Group Total Platforms < 20,000 20,000 00,000 00,000 70,000 > 70,000 Bubble Size Is Average Production Volume Per Platform in Units 8

9 Platform Platform How Do the OEMs have an Advantage Production Volumes from Top 10 Production Platforms All Set to Double Out VW PQ3 Hyundai HD Out RN C Ford Global C Out PSA PF1 Hyundai Sonata Out Toyota XV New New Out Toyota E Out VW PQ2 Platform Strategy: Top 10 Production Platforms, Global, 2010 and 2020 RN B VW MQB RN B0 GM Delta 3 Hyundai HD Ford Global C Toyota E New PSA BVH1 New FC C-EVO New GM Global Gamma 2 New Toyota XP A3, Golf, Jetta, Beetle Logan, Clio, Note, Tiida Elantra, Forte, i30, Sportage Qashqai, Megane, SM3, Xtrail C-Max, Kuga, Focus, Escape 20/207/208, C3, DS3, Pickup 2010 Sonata, Santa Fe, Optima, Sorento Camry, Highlander, ES-Series, Sienna Corolla, Wish, Verso, Matrix Polo, Fabia, A1, Ibiza, Roomster Units (Millions) 2020 Jetta, Golf, Gol, Polo, Fabia, A3, Leon, Ibiza Logan, Duster, Cube, Bluebird, Tiida, B-Car1 Cruze, Volt, ATS, Nubira, Astra, Zafira Elantra, i30, ix3, Cee d, Forte, Sportage C-Max, Kuga, Focus, Escape, MKC, MKS Corolla, xb, RAV4, Matrix, Verso, Wish C3, DS3, M4, 20/207/208, M3, sub-4007 Linea, Wrangler, Journey, D-car, Delta, Bravo Aveo, Corsa, Sail, Meriva, small SUV, small CUV xd, Yaris, Etios, Platz, ist, Ractis Units (Millions) 3 3X Multifold Growth in Million Unit Producing Platforms by 2020 Stable Upward movement Downward movement New entrant; moved up New Out Out of top 10 rank

10 Volkswagen Group Toyota Group Renault-Nissan Group General Motors Group Hyundai Group Ford Group Fiat-Chrysler Group PSA Group Tata Group BMW Group Daimler Group Geely Group Total No. Of Platforms How does Platform Summary of Global OEMs Appear? Some OEMs Target Growth With Existing Platforms, Some with All New Platforms Announced TNGA Modular Approach in 2012 Platform Strategy: Platform Summary, Global, 2010 and 2020 Announced CMF Modular Approach in 2012 Could be next in line to announce modular approach adoption 3 30 PQ3, MQB XV, E B, B0 Gamma, Delta HD, HD Global C, Global C SR1, C-EVO 32 PF1, BVH1 Vista, Ace PL2, PL2 W, MRA B, Basic Average = 18. Platforms 2020 Average = 12.8 Platforms Key Platform, 2020 Key Platform OEM group Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is

11 Volkswagen Group Toyota Group Renault-Nissan Group General Motors Group Hyundai Group Ford Group Fiat-Chrysler Group PSA Group Tata Group BMW Group Daimler Group Geely Group Vehicle Production ( 000) Will Vehicle Production Per Platform Increase in Future? Average vehicle production expected to more than double by ,00 1,400 Platform Strategy: Average Vehicle Production Per Platform, Global, ,200 1, Average (~8,000) 2010 Average (~244,000) - OEM Group Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is

12 Vehicle Segments Similarities and Differences Among Regions Basic and Sub-Compacts, Van and MPVs Key to North America and Europe V - VAN Platform Strategy: Global Vs. Regional Segment-Platform Strategy, 2010 and 2018 Global North America Europe SUV - SUV P - PICKUP MPV - MPV G - SPORTS F - LARGE-PLUS E - LARGE D - MIDSIZE C - COMPACT B - SUBCOMPACT A - BASIC Number of platforms

13 Is There a Connect Between Platforms & Vehicle Segment? Illustration of European OEMs Platform Sharing Reveals it All Platform Strategy: European OEMs Shared Platforms, Global, 2010 and 2020 Implies sharing between any two segments Implies sharing across segments 2010 Platform 2020 Platform 13

14 VW Group is First to Mass Adopt Modular Approach Entire VW Group Targets Just Three Ways to Build Dozens of Cars Platform Strategy: Snapshot of Volkswagen Modular Toolkit Evolution and Approach, Global, MLB NSF MQB Sports Source: Volkswagen Annual Report, Frost and Sullivan analysis. 14

15 Modular Toolkit Key to VW s EV Offerings VW modular toolkit is flexible to spin-off EV offerings from the same platform Platform Strategy: MQB Platform Gas and Electric Compatibility, Global, MQB MQB Source: Volkswagen Source: Volkswagen Modular replacement Gas components replaced by electric Minimal discrete parts between the two concepts 1

16 Q Nissan Announces Modular Approach Follows on Lines Similar to VW Modular Toolkit Approach Platform Strategy: Nissan Follows Volkswagen With Modular Approach, Global, 2012 Nissan s strategy commonly referred as CMF or Common Module Family and sought by Nissan to reduce the development costs of new vehicles Image Source: Nissan. Starting 2014, four different modules 1, 2, 3 and 4 combined with to give rise to multiple vehicle types from hatchbacks to even SUVs 17

17 Q Toyota Announces Modular Approach Toyota s TNGA modular approach targets nearly 0% of its production volumes coming out of common parts assembly line for a global market audience Platform Strategy: Toyota Vision 2020 and its TNGA Modular Approach, Global, 2012 Toyota Vision 2020 Threat of natural calamities like tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand to its market share and production numbers expected to be one of the important reason for the TNGA announcement by Toyota in April 2012 Image Source: Toyota. TNGA or Toyota New Global Architecture plans many new models over common parts to make Toyota s entire range of line-up. These models are for the global markets. Image Source: Toyota. 18

18 What are the Benefits? Cost Reduction, Refined Supply Chain Strategy, Responsiveness to Customer Demand are Some Key Benefits 1 Cost Reduction 2 Refined Supply Chain Strategy For instance, VW group targets atleast 20% reduction in development cost adopting modular toolkit strategy Development cost is 10% (approx.) of vehicle cost for mass-market OEMs like VW Typically at such high volumes, vehicle price could become competitive by atleast 2% Common suppliers and standardized component sharing across platforms to the tune of 0 percent is expected For instance, Renault and Nissan shares a full % of its major 100 suppliers including multiple sources (Tsunami experience) About 70 key components standardization by Renault-Nissan (Battery, HVAC, Door Handles, Glasses) 3 Faster Responsiveness to 4 Better Plant Utilization Ease of After-sales Customer Demand 1

19 The Last Word Platform Strategy: The Last Word, Global, Key global OEM groups target over 30 percent platform reduction. 2 Volkswagen and Daimler groups in mass-manufacture and luxury segments respectively to benefit most. 3 After Volkswagen, Asian OEMs fast-followers of Modular Approach. 4 OEMs to reduce development cost by 20%, vehicle cost by 2% and gain competitive advantage. Modular Strategy sets the scene for supplier opportunities to deliver modules rather than components and systems. 20

20 Thank you! Q & A Contact Franck Leveque Vice President Growth Consulting & Business Unit Leader Automotive & Transportation +4 (0) Franck.leveque@frost.com 21