Industrial learning by experience The Development of Renewables Collège de France 215-1-3 Tomas Kåberger Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation Professor Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2 Global Wind power capacity 198-214 GW 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 198 199 2 21 Data från GWEC Wind power in leading countries 198-214 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 GW 198 19972125 29213 China USA Germany Spain India Data GWEC, EWEA
Experience of Onshore Wind Turbines Electricity production @ 7,5 m/s /MW 1% 127% 145% 5 211 2 21 SWT 2,3 SWT 2,3-82 2 SWT 2,3 DD -113 DD 2,3 2,3 By courtesy 7 8
212 4 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) 9 1 212 4 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,7 cent/kwh 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 1 1
212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 1 1 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/info/tal-kort/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/notat_-_214_7_1_elproduktionsomkostninger_for_1_udvalgte_tekn! 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/info/tal-kort/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/notat_-_214_7_1_elproduktionsomkostninger_for_1_udvalgte_tekn! 1 1
2 GW 4 Solar PV Capacity, Globally 18 Germany China Italy Japan US France GWp 16 3 14 Solar PVinstallations leading 2 countries GW 12 1 8 6 1 4 2 19961998 222 2426 28 21212 214 Data: BP statistical review, 215 6 12 Data BP stat rev 214, IEA for 214 PV module Experience curve c /kwh Solar FIT in Germany 24-214 45 3 15 1 jan 214 1 1 jan 213 1 jan 212 1 jan 211 1 jan 21 1 jan 29 1 jan 28 1 jan 27 1 jan 26 1 jan 25 1 jan 24 Rooftop Groud mounted 13 1 1 1 1 1 1 14
A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 15 15 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 15 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 15
OECD joint effort to make PV competitive A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 15 16 B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) 137 146 OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) 137 146 16 B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) 137 146 16
OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh German consumers pay 4 US cent/kwh extra for PV OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh German consumers pay 4 US cent/kwh extra for PV 4 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh + profit + speed cost 16 16 B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) 137 146 B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) 137 146 In the US, one solar roof-top is installed every 3 minutes! http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
In the Japan, US, one solar roof-top is is installed every 23 minutes! In Bangladesh, the Japan, US, one solar one roof-top solar rooftop installed is installed every every 23 minutes! is is minute! http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? 5 JPY/kWh 4 3 2 1 Japan s solar progress Cost of solar PV rooftop electricity Average residential electricity rate Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21 211 212 213 214 Assumptions for cost calculations: Capacity factor: 12% cost of capital: 1,7% (38 % equity,32 % rest 2,475%) Fixed O&M is 1% of the initial capital cost Dismantling cost is 5% of the initial capital cost. Increased electricity production 213-214 in China 173 147 12 93 67 4 13 13 4 TWh 4 175 15 17 15 1 Fossil Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Data: http://www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/gongxufenxi/dianliyunxingjiankuang/215-2-2/133565.html (uncertainties fossil biomass remains) 19
TWh 6 3 3 6 9 12 German change electricity generation 213-214 Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Fossil Gas Wind Solar Biomass Hydro,3 4,2 11,5 6,2,6 http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/downloads/pdf-files/data-nivc-/stromproduktion-aus-solar-und-windenergie-214.pdf 1,8 6,3 2 2 UK electricity generation 213-214 15 TWh 1 5 5 1 15 2 25 3 Fossil Nuclear Renewable Imports https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/415997/electricity.pdf 21 Change in Japan s Electricity Generation 213-214 (fiscal year) TWh 15 1 5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 Renewables Nuclear Fossil fuel Data: METI Electricity Research Statistics New net electricity generation capacity in the EU 214 GW 12 Wind 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 Solar Biomass Hydro Geothermal Ocean Nuclear Coal Oil Fossil Gas 23 Data: EWEA 215
213-214 24 213-214 24 213-214 24 213-214 24
213-214 24 213-214 24 25 25
26 26 26 27
http://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/ home/pictures-of-the-future/mobility-andmotors/electromobility-electric-ferries.html 28 http://www.international-pilot.com/airbus-puts-electric-e-fan-trainer-into-production-in-pau/ 29 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbfzjbqh_i#t=3 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/215-6-3/at-opec-the-saudi-oil-minister-mainly-wants-to-discuss-solar-power 3 31
The Development of Renewables Collège de France 215-1-3 Tomas Kåberger Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation 33 Disruptive innovations Solar and wind power are too expensive Intermittent power is not sufficient... Solar and wind do not fit our business model... 34
Die Zeit, July 3, 1993 Die Zeit, July 3, 1993 Renewable energy, such as solar, hydro or wind in the long run cannot provide more than 4% of our electricity demand. 36 Renewable energy, such as solar, hydro or wind in the long run cannot provide more than 4% of our electricity demand. 213: Renewable energy provided 25% of electricity demand in Germany. (Solar alone: 5%.) 36 Windpower in Denmark Share of total Electricity consumption 198-214 4 % 3 % 2 % Windpower in Denmark Share of total Electricity consumption 198-214 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 1 % Data from Danish Energy Agency & Energinet % 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 37 Data from Danish Energy Agency & Energinet % 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 37