Shemen Industries Ltd.
מפגש לקוחות תחום הזנת בעלי חיים 14.05.2012 2
I יבוא לארץ 3
היקף יבוא מוצרי מספוא )אלפי טון( )תירס, חיטת מספוא, שעורה, דורה, כוספאות ומוצרים( 3,500 כוספאות ומוצרים גרעינים 3,000 2,500 377 411 422 460 713 664 578 751 710 2,000 1,500 2,188 2,342 2,194 2,123 2,292 2,223 2,311 2,537 2,380 1,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Israel Ministry of Agriculture 4
ייבוא גרעינים לישראל מקור: משרד החקלאות 2188 2342 2194 2123 2292 2223 2311 2537 2380 5
6 יבוא וייצור כוספת לפתית מקור: שמן תעשיות
יבוא וייצור כוספת סויה מקור: שמן תעשיות ייצור סו ר 87 600 24 ייצור מ 122 437 33 ייצור סו ר 90 000 23 ייצור מ 122 430 32 י וא 82 643 23 ייצור 73 000 20 י וא מ 2 729 1 י וא 99 892 23 ייצור 75 647 19 7
ייבוא קמחים לישראל מקור: משרד החקלאות 8
9 ייבוא פולי סויה לפי שנים מקור: משרד החקלאות
10 ייבוא כוספאות לפי שנים מקור: משרד החקלאות
II ביקוש והיצע - דו"חות 11
400 US planted areas (M acres) 350 300 17 16 8 9 7 9 35 34 16 5 11 31 15 14 6 13 15 5 13 5 6 14 15 13 31 31 30 31 Small Sorghum Cotton Conservation Hay All Wheat Soybeans Corn 250 200 150 100 60 60 60 58 58 56 57 63 59 54 58 56 54 56 76 77 77 77 75 75 74 50 86 86 88 92 92 92 96-2008 2009 2010 Mar-11 Jun-11 Final 2011 Mar-12 12
250,000 US Acreage of 3 major crops (M acres) Soybeans All Wheat Corn 200,000 72,025 73,730 74,266 74,075 73,963 73,404 75,208 72,032 75,522 64,741 75,718 77,451 77,400 75,000 73,902 150,000 100,000 65,799 62,814 62,946 59,617 60,358 60,940 59,674 57,229 57,873 60,433 63,457 59,133 53,600 54,400 55,908 50,000 80,165 77,386 79,551 75,752 78,894 78,603 80,929 81,779 78,327 93,527 85,982 86,482 88,200 91,900 95,900-1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May 11/12 May 12/13 Proj. source : Grain Supply/Demand 13
600 550 500 450 400 Ending stock Stock to Use 13% U.S Soybean Carry-Out and Stock To Use as % (Mb) 16% 19% 20.0% 15.0% 350 11% 10.0% 300 250 8% 9% 7% 6% 9% 7% 7% 7% 200 5% 5% 5% 4% 5.0% 150 100 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 May source: Grain Supply/Demand 12/13 Proj. May 14 0.0%
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US Soybean Average Yield 44 42 42.2 43.1 42.9 41.7 44 43.5 41.5 43.9 40 39.6 39.7 38 38.1 38 36 36.6 34 33.9 32 30 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 May 11/12 May 12/13 16
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80.00 70.00 Ending stock World soybean Carry-Out and Stock To Use as % (MMT) 20.38% 20.00% 60.00 Stock to Use 18.53% 18.00% 50.00 16.02% 16.00% 40.00 15.52% 30.00 14.25% 14.00% 20.00 10.00 12.00% - 2008/9 2009/10 May 2011/12 Proj. May 2012/13 10.00% source: Grain Supply/Demand 21
8.50% 66.00 2011/12 World Soybean Carry- Out and Stock to Use estimation elaboration (MMT) 8.00% 7.50% 64.00 62.00 17.86% 17.86% Ending stock Stock to Use 60.00 17.18% 7.00% 6.50% 58.00 16.57% 56.00 16.22% 6.00% 54.00 5.50% 52.00 15.52% 5.00% 50.00 DEC 2011/12 source : Grain Supply/Demand JAN 2011/12 FEB 2011/12 MARCH 2011/12 APR 2011/12 MAY 2011/12 22
1.00% 75.00 2011/12 World Soybean Carry- Out and Stock to Use estimation Elaboration (MMT) 0.00% 70.00 19.88% 19.47% 20.20% 19.88% 19.94% 19.94% 20.05% 19.98% 9.00% Ending stock 18.99% 8.00% 65.00 Stock to Use 18.23% 18.23% 60.00 17.35% 7.00% 6.00% 55.00 16.45% 16.55% 5.00% 50.00 FEB MAR APR MAY June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March source : Grain Supply/Demand 23
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China s Imports Jan-Mar (1,000 tonnes). Source: Reuters, Jefferies Bache, LLC 25
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2,000 1,500 Ending stock Stock to Use U.S Corn Carry-Out and Stock To Use as % (Mb) 19.80% 18.70% 18.90% 17.40% 17.50% 15.60% 14.80% 13.90% 12.80% 13.10% 11.50% 11.60% 20% 15% 13.66% 1,000 10.00% 9.40% 8.64% 10% 6.72% 500 5.00% 5% - 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 source: Grain Supply/Demand May 12/13 Proj. May 29 0%
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US Corn Average Yield 170 160 160.3 164.7 166 150 140 130 120 127.1 125.7 136.9 138.1 134.4 133.8 129.3 153.8 150.7 147.9 149.1 142.2 152.8 147.2 110 113.5 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 May May 11/12 12/13 31
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160 World Corn Carry-Out and Stock To Use as% (MMT) 150 140 18.91% Ending stock Stock to Use 20.00% 18.00% 130 16.41% 14.86% 16.00% 120 13.24% 13.23% 14.00% 110 12.00% 100 2008/9 2009/10 May 2011/12 Proj. May 2012/13 10.00% source: Grain Supply/Demand 33
4.00% 3.80% 3.60% 130.00 129.00 128.00 2011/12 World Corn Carry- Out and Stock to Use estimation Elaboration (MMT) Ending stock Stock to Use 3.40% 127.00 3.20% 126.00 13.20% 13.31% 13.23% 3.00% 125.00 13.02% 12.90% 2.80% 124.00 12.73% 2.60% 123.00 2.40% 122.00 2.20% 121.00 2.00% 120.00 DEC 2011/12 source : Grain Supply/Demand JAN 2011/12 FEB 2011/12 MAR 2011/12 APR 2011/12 MAY 2011/12 34
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Monthly Ethanol Production 36
U.S. use for Ethanol Grind (mil bu) Source: CITI, EIA, and Renewable 37 Fuels Association
U.S. Production of DDG (mil ton) Source: CITI, EIA, FAPRI and 38 Renewable Fuels Association
4.00% 3.80% 3.60% 3.40% 3.20% 130.00 128.00 126.00 124.00 122.00 2011/12 World Corn Carry- Out and Stock to Use Estimated elaboration (MMT) Ending stock Stock to Use 13.60% 13.30% 13.21% 13.17% 13.18% 13.15% 13.15% 13.06% 13.93% 13.81% 13.74% 13.71% 13.80% 13.79% 3.00% 120.00 2.80% 118.00 2.60% 116.00 2.40% 114.00 2.20% 112.00 2.00% 110.00 FEB MAR source : Grain Supply/Demand APR MAY June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 39 March
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IV מחירים 41
Soy complex (weekly) 42 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 05/11/2012 03/09/2012 01/06/2012 11/04/2011 09/02/2011 07/01/2011 04/29/2011 02/25/2011 12/23/2010 10/22/2010 08/20/2010 06/18/2010 04/16/2010 02/12/2010 12/11/2009 10/09/2009 08/07/2009 06/05/2009 04/03/2009 01/30/2009 11/28/2008 09/26/2008 07/25/2008 05/23/2008 03/20/2008 01/18/2008 11/16/2007 09/14/2007 07/13/2007 05/11/2007 03/09/2007 01/05/2007 11/03/2006 09/01/2006 06/30/2006 04/28/2006 02/24/2006 12/23/2005 10/21/2005 08/19/2005 06/17/2005 04/15/2005 02/11/2005 12/10/2004 10/08/2004 08/06/2004 06/04/2004 04/02/2004 01/30/2004 10/24/2003 08/22/2003 06/20/2003 04/17/2003 02/14/2003 12/13/2002 10/11/2002 08/09/2002 06/07/2002 Soybean Meal US$/MT Soybean US$/MT Soybean Oil US$/MT
43 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 05/11/2012 02/24/2012 12/09/2011 09/23/2011 07/08/2011 04/21/2011 02/04/2011 11/19/2010 09/03/2010 06/18/2010 04/01/2010 01/15/2010 10/30/2009 08/14/2009 05/29/2009 03/13/2009 12/26/2008 10/10/2008 07/25/2008 05/09/2008 02/22/2008 12/07/2007 09/21/2007 07/06/2007 04/20/2007 02/02/2007 11/17/2006 09/01/2006 06/16/2006 03/31/2006 01/13/2006 10/28/2005 08/12/2005 05/27/2005 03/11/2005 12/23/2004 10/08/2004 07/23/2004 05/07/2004 02/20/2004 10/31/2003 08/15/2003 05/30/2003 03/14/2003 12/27/2002 10/11/2002 07/26/2002 Corn July 2012 (weekly)
44 Soybean / Corn Spread 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 05/11/2012 03/02/2012 12/23/2011 10/14/2011 08/05/2011 05/27/2011 03/18/2011 01/07/2011 10/29/2010 08/20/2010 06/11/2010 04/01/2010 01/22/2010 11/13/2009 09/04/2009 06/26/2009 04/17/2009 02/06/2009 11/28/2008 09/19/2008 07/11/2008 05/02/2008 02/22/2008 12/14/2007 10/05/2007 07/27/2007 05/18/2007 03/09/2007 12/29/2006 10/20/2006 08/11/2006 06/02/2006 03/24/2006 01/13/2006 11/04/2005 08/26/2005 06/17/2005 04/08/2005 01/28/2005 11/19/2004 09/10/2004 07/02/2004 04/23/2004 02/13/2004 10/31/2003 08/22/2003 06/13/2003 04/04/2003 01/24/2003 11/15/2002 09/06/2002 06/28/2002
45 Soybean meal /Corn Spread 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 05/11/2012 03/02/2012 12/23/2011 10/14/2011 08/05/2011 05/27/2011 03/18/2011 01/07/2011 10/29/2010 08/20/2010 06/11/2010 04/01/2010 01/22/2010 11/13/2009 09/04/2009 06/26/2009 04/17/2009 02/06/2009 11/28/2008 09/19/2008 07/11/2008 05/02/2008 02/22/2008 12/14/2007 10/05/2007 07/27/2007 05/18/2007 03/09/2007 12/29/2006 10/20/2006 08/11/2006 06/02/2006 03/24/2006 01/13/2006 11/04/2005 08/26/2005 06/17/2005 04/08/2005 01/28/2005 11/19/2004 09/10/2004 07/02/2004 04/23/2004 02/13/2004 10/31/2003 08/22/2003 06/13/2003 04/04/2003 01/24/2003 11/15/2002 09/06/2002 06/28/2002
46 JULY DEC Corn Spread 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 05/11/2012 04/27/2012 04/13/2012 03/29/2012 03/15/2012 03/01/2012 02/15/2012 02/01/2012 01/18/2012 01/03/2012 12/16/2011 12/02/2011 11/17/2011 11/03/2011 10/20/2011 10/06/2011 09/22/2011 09/08/2011 08/24/2011 08/10/2011 07/27/2011 07/13/2011 06/28/2011 06/14/2011 05/31/2011 05/16/2011 05/02/2011 04/15/2011 04/01/2011 03/18/2011 03/04/2011 02/17/2011 02/03/2011 01/20/2011 01/05/2011 12/21/2010 12/07/2010 11/22/2010 11/08/2010 10/25/2010 10/11/2010 09/27/2010 09/13/2010 08/27/2010 08/13/2010 07/30/2010 07/16/2010 07/01/2010 06/17/2010 06/03/2010 05/19/2010
47-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 05/11/2012 05/02/2012 04/23/2012 04/12/2012 04/02/2012 03/22/2012 03/13/2012 03/02/2012 02/22/2012 02/10/2012 02/01/2012 01/23/2012 01/11/2012 12/30/2011 12/20/2011 12/09/2011 11/30/2011 11/18/2011 11/09/2011 10/31/2011 10/20/2011 10/11/2011 09/30/2011 09/21/2011 09/12/2011 08/31/2011 08/22/2011 08/11/2011 08/02/2011 07/22/2011 07/13/2011 07/01/2011 06/22/2011 06/13/2011 06/02/2011 05/23/2011 05/12/2011 05/03/2011 04/21/2011 04/12/2011 04/01/2011 03/23/2011 03/14/2011 03/03/2011 02/22/2011 02/10/2011 02/01/2011 01/21/2011 01/11/2011 12/31/2010 12/21/2010 12/10/2010 12/01/2010 11/19/2010 11/10/2010 JULY DEC Soybean Meal Spread
השוואה 2012/13 ל- 2008/9 48
US Soybean Supply and Use - US (acres/mb) / / / Est Acres Planted 75 718 77 451 73 900 % Harvested 0 986 0 986 0 988 Acres Harvested 74 658 76 367 73 000 Average yield 39 7 44 43 9 Carry-In 205 138 210 Production 2 964 3 360 3 205 Imports 13 15 15 TOTAL SUPPLY 5 Crush 1 662 1 752 1 655 Exports 1 279 1 499 1 505 Seed 90 90 89 Feed/Residual 16 20 36 TOTAL USAGE 5 Ending Stocks 135 152 145 Stocks-to Use %. %.5%. % 49
WORLD Soybeans Supply and Use, 12/13 08/09 09/10 Est BEGINNING STOCKS South America 40 66 28 63 31 01 U.S. 5 58 3 76 5 72 World 52 12 43 35 53 24 PRODUCTION South America 89 8 123 5 140 8 U.S. 80 75 91 42 87 23 World 211 64 261 09 271 42 IMPORTS.. 5. Thereof China 41 50 61 Domestic Usage 221 238 265 Thereof China 51 59 75 China as % Domestic 23 3 25 0 28 1 Thereof US 48 51 48 Rest of the World 121 128 142 EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS South America 29 38 38 U.S. 3 76 4 11 3 94 China 7 56 13 26 13 14 Other 3 4 5 06 2 69 World 43 35 60 54 58 07 Stocks to Use %. % 5.5%. % 50
51 הובלה ימית
Dry bulk Indexes 52
Dry bulk Indexes 53
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Thank you!! 55