Asahi World Environmental Forum 14 September 2010 Global trends in clean energy investment Michael Liebreich Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010
Global total new investment in clean energy 2004 2010 ($bn) 43% 10% $157bn $173bn -7% $162bn $175bn Total Investment: $200bn 57% $110bn 54% $70bn $46bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals 2
NEX clean energy index 2003 2010 YTD 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Note: Values as of 20 Aug 2010; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003. 3
It s exciting when you have a real crisis on your hands, when you have spent half your political life dealing with humdrum issues like the environment Margaret Thatcher, 1982 4
Copenhagen 5
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US public opinion towards global warming 60% 50% 48% 40% 30% 34% 31% 27% 25% Generally exaggerated Generally correct 20% 24% Generally undereatimated 10% 0% 8% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3% No opinion Source: Gallup 7
Annual Global stimulus spending & stimulus components target at clean energy ($bn) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 64.4bn 55.2bn 35% 30% 33.1bn 16.6bn 18% 14.7bn 9% 8% 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e Total $184bn Canada 1.0 Brazil 2.5 France 2.7 Spain 3.6 UK 3.7 Australia 4.1 Germany 4.2 Japan 8.6 EU-27 12.7 South Korea 27.8 China 46.9 US 66.6, government agencies Note: Estimates based on disclosed information, as of 12 February 2010 8
Multilateral and development bank lending ($bn) $17.4bn +21% $21.1bn $1.1bn +169% $8,510 Export Finance $6.5bn $3,853 $2,343 $10,641 $6,487 $11,477 Development Banks Multilaterals 2007 2008 2009 9
Solar PV module prices 1975-2010 ($/Wp) 100 1975 10 2004 C-Si historic prices C-Si experience curve Chinese c-si module prices 1 2006 2010 2010 2020 First Solar thin film module cost Thin film experience curve 2020 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Cumulative production MW Note: 1975 2003, Paul Maycock; 2004 2010, Chinese c-si module prices 10
Spot price of solar-grade silicon, 2000 June 2010 ($/kg) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sep 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 Dec 08 Nov 08 Oct 08 Sep 08 Aug 08 Jul 08 Jun 08 May 08 Apr 08 Mar 08 Feb 08 Jan 08 Dec 07 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Spot survey results 3-point average of historical deals Annual analyst estimates Source: Various, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Spot Survey Note: Annual data 2000-2007 from various industry sources. Data November 2007 May 2009 based on a 3-point moving average of actual spot deals. Consistent monthly data collection using the Spot Survey began in May 2009, and this has been used May 2009-June 2010. 11
Turbine prices by delivery date, 2004 2010 ($m & m/mw) Public data & NEF Wind Turbine Price Index Disclosed contracts WTPI 1.59 1.58 1.62 1.73-20% 1.37 1.37 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.39 0.98 0.79 1.09 0.86 1.22 1.15 0.95 0.96 1.09 0.88 1.23 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.10 1.11 1.22 1.21 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.04 H1 2004 H2 2004 H1 2005 H2 2005 H1 2006 H2 2006 H1 2007 H2 2007 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 Note: Prices include towers & transport, exclude civil engineering. denominated contracts converted to $ at the average exchange rate for the semester. Extract from H2 2010 New Energy Finance WTPI participant report covering 62 contracts over the period 12
Disclosed turbine contract lead times by date of contract signing, excluding China (months) 25 20 15 10 5 - Jan 06 Aug 06 Apr 07 Dec 07 Jul 08 Mar 09 Oct 09 Jun 10 13
New financial investment in clean energy by region: 2007, 2008 & 2009 ($bn) 52.2 +2% 53.2-13% 46.4 45.4 +8% 48.9-30% +36% +29% 41.4 34.1 32.2 2007 23.7 2008 2009 EMEA AMER ASOC Note: Financial sector investment only (i.e. excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity). Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. 14
New financial investment in clean energy in the United States 2004 2010 ($bn) 10.7 11.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.6 3.3 4.4 7.1 5.8 8.2 6.3 6.4 7.3 9.0 8.3 4.7 2.4 7.0 5.4 3.5 6.0 7.7 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 15
New financial investment in clean energy in Europe 2004 2010 ($bn) 22.9 13.2 15.6 16.5 8.9 10.4 7.7 9.2 11.3 9.4 10.9 7.9 12.5 8.0 7.6 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.5 3.6 5.4 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.3 5.6 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 16
6.2 6.6 5.5 New financial investment in clean energy in China 2004 2010 ($bn) 12.9 12.4 9.9 10.7 7.2 6.7 4.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 17
Asset finance for new build clean energy assets - top 15 countries 2009 ($bn) China United Kingdom United States Spain Brazil Germany Italy Netherlands France Canada Mexico India Belgium Turkey Chile 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.9 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.7 ASOC AMER EMEA 29.2 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 18
Public markets new equity raised for clean energy - top 15 countries 2009 ($bn) China United States Norway Denmark Canada Taiwan India Japan Germany South Korea United Kingdom Australia France Brazil Sweden 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.04 0.03 0.02 3.6 ASOC AMER EMEA 4.4 19
VC new investment in clean energy by sector top 15 countries: 2009 ($m) United States $2,136m United Kingdom China Germany Canada Ireland Netherlands Israel France Switzerland Norway Australia Sweden Belgium Estonia $109m $97m $82m $76m $53m $50m $33m $27m $24m $16m $9m $5m $4m $4m Energy smart technologies Solar Wind Biofuels Other renewables Low carbon tech/services* Note: : Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals. *includes CCS 20
Top 10 manufacturers of photovoltaic cells (Rank order by MW) 2005 Company Country Production (MW) 1. Sharp Japan 375 2. Kyocera Japan 142 3. Q-Cells Germany 131 4. Schott Solar Germany 95 5. BP Solar USA 86 6. Mitsubishi Electric Japan 85 7. Sanyo Japan 84 8. Shell Solar USA 55 9. Motech Taiwan 45 10. Isofoton Spain 39 Japan Europe USA China Other Asia 2010(e) Company Country Production (MW) 1. First Solar USA 1,322 2. Suntech China 1,090 3. Q-Cells Germany 1,000 4. JA Solar China 800 5. SolarWorld Germany 710 6. Sharp Japan 695 7. Trina Solar China 600 8. Yingli China 600 9. Gintech Energy Taiwan 600 10. Kyocera Japan 440 ; company announcements Note: TF = Thin Film; 2010 figures are for estimated annual production 21
Industrial clean energy investment announcements As at 2010 ($bn) Korea 81.9 Brazil 25.9 Japan 7.1 China 7.1 India 1.7 Note: includes industrial clean energy corporate announcements as at September 2010 across renewable energy and energy efficiency up until the year 2020 22
Global total new investment in clean energy 2004 2010 ($bn) 43% 10% $157bn $173bn -7% $162bn $175bn Total Investment: $200bn 57% $110bn 54% $70bn $46bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals 23
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