The future for natural rubber in the world rubber industry: availability, prices and substitution Paper prepared for the meeting of the Finnish Rubber Industry Helsinki 23 April 24 Presented by Fazilet Cinaralp, BLIC Prepared by Kees Burger and Hidde P. Smit Economic and Social Institute Amsterdam
This paper is based on the study The future of the tyre and rubber sector of China and consequences for the world rubber industry International Rubber Study Group, London Economic and Social Institute, Amsterdam
Contents of the current paper Vehicles, tyres and rubber The model: structure and estimation The future of the world economy Vehicles Tyres Consumption of rubber Price formation and consumption shares
The future of the world economy: Economic development
Economic activity is represented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Growth in GDP World 7 6 5 % 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projections for selected countries
Growth in GDP North America 8 6 4 % 2-2 -4 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Growth in GDP Europe 6 5 4 % 3 2 1-1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Growth in GDP Japan 14 12 1 8 % 6 4 2-2 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Growth in GDP China 2 15 1 % 5-5 -1-15 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Growth in GDP Other Asia 1 8 6 % 4 2-2 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Growth in GDP Rest of the World 7 6 5 4 % 3 2 1-1 -2 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Population by region (millions) 3 25 2 15 1 5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
GDP per capita (in US$ of 2 ) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Passenger cars
Passenger cars in use 35 3 25 million ns 2 15 1 5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
New registrations of passenger cars 25 2 million ns 15 1 5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Production of passenger cars 25 2 million ns 15 1 5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Commercial vehicles
Commercial vehicles in use million ns 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
New registrations of commercial vehicles 12 1 8 mill lions 6 4 2 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Production of commercial vehicles 1 9 8 7 million ns 6 5 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Tyres
Passenger car tyre sales 45 4 35 3 million ns 25 2 15 1 5 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Passenger car tyres production million ns 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Passenger car tyre production World 14 12 1 million ns 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Net exports of passenger car tyres 1 8 6 4 million ns 2-2 -4-6 -8 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Commercial vehicle tyre sales 12 1 8 million ns 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Commercial vehicle tyre production 18 16 14 12 million ns 1 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Commercial vehicle tyre production World 45 4 35 3 millions 25 2 15 1 5 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Commercial vehicle tyre net export 12 1 8 6 million ns 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Consumption of rubber tyres and tyre products
Rubber consumption tyres and tyre products 6 5 million to onnes 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World
Consumption of rubber for general rubber goods
Rubber consumption general rubber goods million tonnes 5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Total rubber consumption
Rubber consumption total million tonnes 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Rubber consumption World 3 25 onnes million t 2 15 1 5 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 tyre sector general products total
Total rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 23% Rest of the World 9% North America 12% Europe 21% China 29% Japan 6%
Pi Price formation and consumption shares for natural rubber and synthetic rubber
Growth rates 8 6 4 2 % -2-4 -6 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 normal natural rubber production total rubber consumption
Crude petroleum prices 45 4 35 3 US$/ barre el 25 2 15 1 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Rubber prices 3. 2.5 2. kg US$/ 1.5 1..5. 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 SBR, e.u.v. USA natural rubber IR, e.u.v. USA
Natural rubber production World 12 1 onnes million t 8 6 4 2 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 without t additional planting with additional planting
Natural rubber consumption World 12 1 onnes million t 8 6 4 2 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 without t additional substitution with additional substitution
Share NR in total rubber consumption 6 5 4 % 3 2 1 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 tyres and tyre products general rubber goods total
Consumption of rubber
Natural rubber consumption tyres and tyre products 25 2.5 2 onnes 1.5 million t 1.5 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Synthetic rubber consumption tyres and tyre products 35 3.5 3. onnes million t 2.5 2. 1.5 1 1..5. 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Natural rubber consumption general rubber goods 14 1.4 1.2 1. onnes million t.8.6 4.4.2. 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Synthetic rubber consumption general rubber goods 4 4. 3.5 3 3. onnes million t 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World
Natural rubber consumption World 12 1 tonnes thousand 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 tyre sector general products total
Synthetic rubber consumption World thousand 2 18 16 12 tonnes14 1 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 tyre sector general products total
Natural rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 3% Rest of the World 6% North America 14% Europe 17% Japan 7% China 26%
Synthetic rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 19% Rest of the World 8% North America 11% Europe 24% China 32% Japan 6%
The End Thank you! Fazilet Cinaralp