World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation September 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released September 12, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 1. 218/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 17 MMT; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 2. MMT, down 6% year over year, if realized U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.1 MMT, 8% above 217/18, if realized 2. Consumption forecast at a record 746 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average Russian domestic consumption to decline to 4.5 MMT, 8% below 217/18, if realized U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 MMT 3. World wheat trade projected at a record 181 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 14. MMT, 3% below 217/18, and 21% below the 5-year average Exports from Kazakhstan to stable year over year at 8.5 MMT, 14% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9 MMT, up 14% from 217/18, if realized
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 273 MMT, up 6% year over year Beginning stocks in Canada forecast at 6.18 MMT, down 1% from 217/18 U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9 MMT, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 259 MMT, 5% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 136 MMT account for 52% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 76.7 MMT, down slightly year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 48.4 MMT, 37% below the 5-year average of 76.7 MMT 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.7 to $5.5/bushel ($173-$22/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
659 715 728 733 758 MMT World Production and Use 8 75 741 746 7 65 6 55 5 Production Use
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 468 468 444 45 395 371 63 72 72 Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 MMT SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 257 274 Production 752 758 733 Supply Total 996 115 17 TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 181 181 DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 65 Feed & Residual 147 144 141 Use Total 739 741 746 ENDING STOCKS: 257 274 261
World Beginning Stocks 3 25 2 111 127 15 39 56 1 69 69 71 5 27 21 2 47 56 57 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Percent Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio 4 35 34 35 37 35 3 25 26 2 15 1 5 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
Percent 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China 27.2 25. 24.8 24.3 24.5 23.4 23.5 2. 18.6 17.6 2. 15. 1. 5.. 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
World Ending Stocks 3 25 257 274 261 2 111 127 136 15 1 77 71 48 5 17 21 2 52 56 57 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China, 136 Exporters, 76.7 Importers, 48.4
$US/MT Global Ending Stocks and Price 3 4 25 198 22 35 3 2 15 76 136 241 214 25 2 1 15 5 2 16 14 43 57 45 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Canada Situation 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 32.1 3. 31.5 2. 15. 2.2 22. 24. 1. 5.. 5.2 6.9 6.2 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks 12. 1. 1.4 8. 6. 6.9 6.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4. 2.. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Australia Situation 45. 4. 35. 31.8 3. 25. 23.7 22.3 21.3 2. 2. 22.6 15. 1. 16.6 16.1 14.5 14. 5.. 4.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 5.7 5.4 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks 1. 8. 8.2 6. 7.1 5.7 5.4 4. 4.6 4.7 3.9 4. 2. 3.1. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Argentina Situation 2. 18.4 18. 19.5 15. 14.2 1. 1.5 13.8 12. 9.6 5.. 4.8 2.3.3.8.3.7 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks 5.5 5. 4.5 4.8 4. 4.1 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 2.5 1.5 1..5..7.8.7.3.3.3 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
European Union Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 157 16 145 152 8 138 6 4 2 35.5 34.8 27.4 23.3 23. 9.9 12.7 15.5 1.7 14.6 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks 25 2 19.4 15 15.5 14.6 1 12.7 1.7 1.1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Russia Situation 1 9 85. 8 7 6 59.1 61. 72.5 71. 5 4 3 2 25.5 27.8 41.4 35. 1 5.2 6.3 5.6 1.8 1.9 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks 2 15 13.7 1 1.8 1.9 5 6.3 5.6 6.9 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Black Sea Region Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 112 118 13 142 126 6 4 51.5 54.4 68.8 61. 2 15.8 2.7 16.8 21.2 2. 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
Black Sea Exports 8 7 6 8.5 8.5 5 4 3 2 1 8.1 9.8 18.6 5.5 11.3 22.8 7.6 7.4 17.4 18.1 25.5 27.8 17.8 41.4 16.5 35. 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks 3 25 23.3 2 2.7 21.2 2. 15 16.8 14.3 1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
U.S. Situation 1 9 8 7 62.8 6 5 56.1 47.4 51.1 4 3 2 1 28.6 27.9 24.5 21.2 2.5 26.6 32.1 3. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks 35 3 32.1 3. 25 26.6 25.5 2 2.2 2.5 15 16.1 1 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 218/19 217/18
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5.
2. Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date 1.5 1..5. 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report September 7, 218.
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/17 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
World Wheat Imports 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Million Acres U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 7 6 5 4 3 11.4 2.1 4.2 6.6 1.3 12.1 2.3 2. 4. 4.1 5.6 5.9 2 1 26.5 23.8 23.2 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
U.S. Hard Red Winter 45 4 35 3 2.4 18. 25 2 15 1 5 1.1 1.2 16. 15.8 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring 25 2 15 1.5 15.9 1 5 6.2 6.4 8. 5.2 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter 2 15 7.9 1 7.9 5 2.5 3.3 5.9 5.6 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White 12 1 8 7. 7.3 6 4 5.3 5.6 2 2.9 2.4 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum 5 4 3 1.4 1.2 2 1.5 2. 1.5.8 1. 1. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report September 7, 218.
18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks 16. 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6 Production 2.4 18. 1.5 15.9 7.9 7.9 Imports.2.2 2.4 1.8.1.3 Supply Total 36.6 34. 19.3 22.8 13.9 13.8 Domestic Use 1.7 12.6 7.8 7.9 5.9 5.8 Exports 1.1 1.2 6.2 8. 2.5 3.3 Use Total 2.8 22.8 14.1 16. 8.3 9.1 Ending Stocks 15.8 11.1 5.2 6.9 5.6 4.7 Stocks-to-Use 76% 49% 37% 43% 67% 52%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1. 1. 32.1 29.9 Production 7. 7.3 1.5 2. 47.4 51.1 Imports.2.3 1.4 1.2 4.3 3.7 Supply Total 1.1 9.9 3.9 4.2 83.8 84.7 Domestic Use 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.3 31.4 Exports 5.3 5.6.5.8 24.5 27.9 Use Total 7.7 8.1 2.9 3.2 53.8 59.3 Ending Stocks 2.4 1.8 1. 1. 29.9 25.4 Stocks-to-Use 31% 22% 34% 31% 56% 43%
$/Metric Ton U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
$/Metric Ton U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
$/Metric Ton SRW and Soft White Prices 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 SW SRW
$/Metric Ton U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 1 5-5 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
$/Metric Ton U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 15 1 5 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares U.S. Wheat Area and Production 75 65 3.5 3.6 3.4 55 45 35 2.9 3.1 3.2 51.1 47.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 25 15 15.2 16. 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.2 2.
Million Hectares U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison 45. 4. 38.8 38.1 36.5 36.1 35. 33.8 36.5 36.3 3. 3.9 25. 2. 15. 23. 22.4 2.6 18.5 19.1 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Wheat Production, Use and Trade 8 2 75 173 183 181 181 19 18 7 17 16 65 15 6 735 711 752 758 739 741 746 733 14 13 55 12 11 5 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1
Production and Use (MMT) 973 97 179 161 134 167 169 116 Trade (MMT) World Corn Production, Use and Trade 12 1 12 16 146 162 18 16 14 8 12 1 6 8 4 6 4 2 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
Production and Use (MMT) 314 314 348 329 337 337 369 353 Trade (MMT) World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 35 3 133 147 154 157 16 14 25 12 2 1 8 15 6 1 4 5 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
$/metric ton Ocean Freight Rates for Grains 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Russian wheat production to fall to 71. MMT, 16% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.1 MMT, 9% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 261 MMT, still 1% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 1.1 MMT, 21% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 25.4 MMT, down 15% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to hit new record in 218/19; world trade to remain at record high Indonesian 218/19 wheat imports to remain stable at 1.5 MMT, still 15% above the 5- year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9 MMT, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized