Interest rate forecasts at May 9, 2012
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- Hester Hope Walker
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1 Interest rate forecasts at May 9, mai juin-12 sept-12 déc-12 mars-13 juin-13 sept-13 déc-13 USA Fed funds 0, M 0,47 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,55 0,60 2Y 0,25 0,50 0,70 1,20 1,60 2,10 2,40 2,50 10Y 1,83 2,50 3,00 3,60 3,80 4,00 4,15 4,25 Japan Call 0, M 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 2Y 0,11 0,15 0,15 0,20 0,20 0,25 0,25 0,30 10Y 0,85 1,10 1,15 1,25 1,35 1,45 1,50 1,60 Eurozone Repo 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 3M 0,62 0,70 0,60 0,60 0,70 0,75 0,80 0,90 2Y (Ger) 0,09 0,40 0,80 1,25 1,50 1,70 1,90 2,00 10Y (Ger) 1,54 2,10 2,50 2,75 3,00 3,20 3,40 3,50 United Kingdom Base rate 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 3M 1,01 0,80 0,80 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,25 1,50 2Y 0,40 0,75 1,10 1,30 1,50 1,80 2,25 2,50 10Y 1,94 2,70 3,00 3,20 3,50 3,70 3,85 4,00 Sw eden Repo 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,75 2,00 Norw ay Deposit 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,75 2,00 2,25 2,50 Canada Overnight Target 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,75 Australia Cash Target 3,75 3,75 3,75 3,75 3,75 4,00 4,00 4,25 New Zealand Official Cash Rate 2,50 2,50 2,75 3,00 3,25 3,25 3,50 3,50
2 09-mai juin-12 sept-12 déc-12 mars-13 juin-13 sept-13 déc-13 Asia China 1Y lending rate 6,56 6,31 6,06 6,06 6,06 6,31 6,31 6,56 Hong Kong Base rate 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 India Repo rate 8,00 8,00 7,75 7,75 7,75 7,75 7,75 8,00 Indonesia BI rate 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 6,00 6,00 6,00 Korea Call rate 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,50 3,50 3,50 Malaysia OPR 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 Philippines Repo rate 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,25 4,25 4,50 Singapore 6M SOR 0,56 0,49 0,59 0,63 0,66 0,66 0,69 0,70 Taiw an Redisc 1,88 1,88 1,88 1,88 1,88 1,88 2,00 2,13 Thailand Repo 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,25 3,50 Vietnam Refinancing rate 13,00 12,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,50 12,00 Latin America Argentina 3M deposit 12,77 15,00 16,00 17,00 17,00 16,00 16,00 16,00 Brazil Overnight/Selic 9,00 8,50 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,50 9,00 Mexico Overnight rate 4,50 4,50 4,50 4,50 4,75 5,00 5,25 5,50 Emerging Europe Czech Rep. 14D repo 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,25 1,25 Hungary 2W repo 7,00 7,00 7,00 6,75 6,50 6,25 6,00 6,00 Poland 7D repo 4,50 4,50 4,50 4,25 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 Romania 2W repo 5,25 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 Russia O/N Deposit rate 4,00 4,50 5,50 6,00 6,00 6,00 6,00 6,00 O/N repo rate 5,25 5,50 6,50 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 Turkey 1W repo rate 5,75 5,75 5,75 6,25 6,50 7,00 7,00 7,00 Africa & Middle East South Africa Repo 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,75 6,00 6,25 6,50 7,00 UAE Repo 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,50 2,00 Saudi Arabia Repo 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,50 3,00 2
3 Exchange Rate Forecasts at May 9, mai juin-12 sept-12 déc-12 mars-13 juin-13 sept-13 déc-13 USD Exchange rate Industrialised countries Euro EUR/USD 1,30 1,28 1,27 1,26 1,26 1,25 1,25 1,25 Japan USD/JPY United Kingdom GBP/USD 1,61 1,54 1,55 1,58 1,56 1,54 1,52 1,52 Sw itzerland USD/CHF 0,93 0,97 0,99 1,02 1,03 1,06 1,06 1,06 Canada USD/CAD 1,002 1,00 0,99 0,96 0,94 0,93 0,95 0,96 Australia AUD/USD 1,01 1,07 1,09 1,10 1,08 1,06 1,05 1,04 New Zealand NZD/USD 0,79 0,83 0,84 0,84 0,82 0,80 0,81 0,79 Asia China USD/CNY 6,31 6,25 6,23 6,20 6,16 6,13 6,09 6,05 Hong Kong USD/HKD 7,76 7,77 7,77 7,77 7,77 7,77 7,77 7,77 India USD/INR 53,48 52,50 51,80 50,50 49,88 49,25 48,63 48,00 Indonesia USD/IDR Malaysia USD/MYR 3,07 2,97 2,96 2,95 2,93 2,90 2,88 2,85 Philippines USD/PHP 42,4 42,2 42,1 42,0 42,1 41,8 41,4 41,0 Singapore USD/SGD 1,25 1,24 1,23 1,22 1,21 1,20 1,18 1,17 South Korea USD/KRW Taiw an USD/TWD 29,4 29,2 29,2 29,0 28,8 28,7 28,5 28,3 Thailand USD/THB 31,0 30,4 30,2 30,0 30,1 29,8 29,6 29,3 Vietnam USD/VND Latin America Argentina USD/ARS 4,44 4,60 4,60 4,50 4,40 4,30 4,30 4,30 Brazil USD/BRL 1,94 1,90 1,90 1,80 1,80 1,80 1,75 1,75 Mexico USD/MXN 13,39 12,80 12,30 12,20 12,40 12,20 12,50 12,40 Africa South Africa USD/ZAR 7,95 7,80 7,60 7,50 7,40 7,40 7,40 7,40 TRY/ZAR 4,46 4,46 4,34 4,41 4,48 4,63 4,63 4,63 Emerging Europe Poland USD/PLN 3,25 3,34 3,35 3,29 3,33 3,32 3,28 3,20 Russia USD/RUB 30,23 30,37 32,55 33,35 32,68 33,71 33,71 34,16 Basket/RUB 34,29 34,20 36,50 37,25 36,50 37,50 37,50 38,00 Turkey USD/TRY 1,78 1,75 1,75 1,70 1,65 1,60 1,60 1,60 Euro Cross rates Industrialised countries Japan EUR/JPY ,8 110,5 113,4 115,9 117,5 121,3 125,0 United Kingdom EUR/GBP 0,80 0,83 0,82 0,80 0,81 0,81 0,82 0,82 Sw itzerland EUR/CHF 1,20 1,24 1,26 1,28 1,30 1,33 1,33 1,33 Sw eden EUR/SEK 8,92 9,10 9,20 9,30 9,40 9,35 9,32 9,30 Norw ay EUR/NOK 7,58 7,50 7,45 7,40 7,35 7,30 7,25 7,20 Central Europe Czech Rep. EUR/CZK 25,2 25,0 25,0 24,6 24,5 24,6 24,4 24,0 Hungary EUR/HUF Poland EUR/PLN 4,22 4,28 4,25 4,15 4,20 4,15 4,10 4,00 Romania EUR/RON 4,41 4,35 4,33 4,30 4,30 4,30 4,20 4,20 3
4 Economic Forecasts Real GDP (YoY. %) CPI (YoY. %) Current Account (% GDP) USA 1,7 2,1 2,2 3,1 2,4 2,2-3,2-3,3-3,2 JAPAN -0,7 2,0 1,5-0,2 0,1 0,3 2,1 2,1 2,3 EUROZONE 1,5-0,3 1,0 2,7 2,3 1,8-0,6-0,3 0,0 Germany 3,1 0,6 1,6 2,5 2,3 2,3 4,8 4,7 5,0 France 1,7 0,3 1,2 2,3 2,1 1,7-2,2-1,8-2,3 Italy 0,5-1,4 0,1 2,9 3,1 1,7-4,3-3,5-2,5 Spain 0,7-1,8-0,2 3,1 1,7 1,2-3,8-3,4-3,0 Greece -6,9-5,0-1,0 3,1 0,9 0,0-9,8-7,3-6,5 Other developed countries United Kingdom 0,7 0,5 1,5 4,5 2,7 2,0-3,0-3,0-2,5 Norw ay 1,7 2,2 2,7 1,3 1,5 1,9 13,2 16,0 15,5 Sw eden 4,0 0,8 2,3 3,0 1,6 2,0 6,7 6,9 6,7 Sw itzerland 1,8 0,2 1,5 0,2-0,4 1,0 12,5 11,0 11,0 Canada 2,2 1,9 2,2 2,9 1,9 2,0-3,2-3,1-2,9 Australia 2,0 3,1 3,2 3,4 3,3 2,8-2,2-3,1-2,6 New Zealand 2,0 3,0 3,5 4,0 2,8 2,9-2,9-3,3-2,5 Asia 7,3 6,8 7,4 5,9 4,1 4,7 2,0 1,0 1,1 China 9,2 8,0 8,5 5,4 3,4 4,0 2,7 1,3 1,1 Hong Kong 5,0 3,8 5,0 5,6 3,2 4,0 6,6 6,0 8,0 India 6,9 7,3 7,7 8,7 6,2 7,2-3,6-3,5-3,4 Indonesia 6,5 5,9 6,0 5,4 4,6 5,0 0,2 0,5 0,7 Korea 3,6 3,6 5,0 4,0 3,5 4,2 2,4 1,9 2,8 Malaysia 5,1 3,2 4,0 3,2 2,5 2,8 11,5 11,8 11,2 Philippines 3,7 3,5 4,5 4,8 3,5 4,3 3,8 3,0 3,5 Singapore 4,9 3,4 5,5 5,3 3,6 4,5 21,8 18,0 20,0 Taiw an 4,0 3,4 5,0 1,4 2,0 1,5 8,8 5,8 6,5 Thailand 0,1 4,5 4,5 3,8 3,2 3,3 4,9 2,5 3,8 Vietnam 5,9 4,9 6,3 18,7 13,0 10,5-5,7-5,0-4,5 Latin America 3,9 3,3 3,8 5,9 5,8 5,8-1,7-2,0-2,1 Argentina 8,5 3,7 3,7 11,0 12,0 14,0-0,5-1,1-0,8 Brazil 2,7 3,1 3,9 6,3 5,5 5,2-2,7-3,0-3,2 Mexico 3,9 3,3 3,8 3,4 3,8 3,4-0,8-1,1-1,0 Emerging Europe 4,8 2,7 3,4 5,6 6,6 5,4-0,3-1,2-2,0 Czech Republic 1,6 0,1 1,9 2,1 3,0 2,0-3,7-3,0-3,5 Hungary 1,7-0,5 1,6 4,0 4,3 4,0 1,9 3,2 3,8 Poland 4,4 2,7 2,8 4,3 4,0 3,0-5,4-4,1-3,9 Russia 4,3 3,0 3,3 6,1 7,2 6,5 5,7 2,5 1,0 Romania 2,4 1,5 3,3 5,8 4,0 3,3-4,1-5,0-5,3 Turkey 8,4 3,5 5,0 6,5 9,4 6,5-9,0-7,0-7,5 Africa & Middle East 4,4 3,6 4,2 5,1 5,4 4,7 8,1 7,3 6,2 Algeria 3,0 3,3 4,0 4,5 3,5 2,5 9,0 8,8 9,0 Egypt 1,8 2,2 5,0 10,2 11,0 10,0-3,0-3,5-2,5 Kuw ait 4,4 5,0 5,0 3,1 4,0 4,0 38,7 37,5 35,0 Lebanon 1,5 2,8 4,0 3,1 3,5 6,0-27,0-24,0-23,0 Morocco 4,3 3,0 3,5 1,4 1,5 2,4-8,8-6,0-5,0 Qatar 17,5 7,5 6,0 2,1 3,0 4,0 30,0 33,0 31,0 Saudi Arabia 7,0 4,1 4,1 5,0 4,3 3,1 24,5 21,0 16,0 South Africa 3,2 3,5 3,5 5,0 6,0 5,0-3,6-4,0-3,5 United Arab Emirates 3,5 3,5 4,0 0,9 2,0 1,5 7,5 5,5 4,5 Tunisia -2,2 2,3 3,5 3,5 4,0 4,0-9,0-7,5-6,5 Total 3,6 3,2 3,7 4,1 3,3 3,3 0,0-0,3-0,3 Industrialised countries 1,3 1,2 1,7 2,6 2,1 1,8-1,4-1,3-1,1 Emerging countries 6,2 5,4 6,0 5,8 4,8 4,9 1,7 0,8 0,7 Notes: (1) For UK: HICP; for India: w holesale prices; for China, retail price index; for Brazil: IPCA, for South Africa: CPI-X (2) For India: Fiscal year ending in March. 4
5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Real GDP grow th, QoQ % USA (annualised) 0,4 1,3 1,8 3,0 2,0 1,9 2,0 2,2 1,8 2,5 2,6 2,7 JAPAN -1,8-0,3 1,7-0,2 0,7 0,6 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,2 0,4 0,3 EUROZONE 0,8 0,1 0,2-0,3-0,3-0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,4 Germany 1,3 0,3 0,6-0,2 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 France 0,9-0,1 0,3 0,2-0,1 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,4 Italy 0,1 0,3-0,2-0,7-0,6-0,4-0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,2 Spain 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,3-0,6-0,9-0,5-0,4 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,6 United Kingdom 0,3 0,0 0,5-0,3 0,2 0,0 0,6 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,6 0,5 Consumer prices, YoY % USA 2,2 3,3 3,8 3,3 2,8 2,4 2,1 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,2 2,2 JAPAN -0,8-0,2 0,2-0,1-0,2 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,4 EUROZONE 2,5 2,8 2,7 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,0 1,8 1,5 1,8 1,9 Germany 2,2 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,2 2,1 2,4 2,6 France 2,0 2,2 2,3 2,6 2,6 2,3 2,0 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,8 2,0 Italy 2,3 2,9 2,7 3,7 3,6 3,5 3,1 2,4 2,0 1,2 1,7 1,7 Spain 3,2 3,3 2,9 2,7 1,9 1,6 1,7 1,4 1,3 0,9 1,3 1,4 United Kingdom 4,1 4,4 4,7 4,7 3,3 2,7 2,5 2,1 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,1 Unemployment rate, % USA 9,0 9,0 9,1 8,7 8,3 8,3 8,0 7,9 7,9 7,8 7,7 7,7 JAPAN 4,7 4,6 4,4 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,2 EUROZONE 9,9 9,9 10,2 10,5 10,7 10,9 11,1 11,1 11,1 11,1 11,1 11,0 Germany 6,3 6,0 5,8 5,7 5,7 5,6 5,7 5,6 5,6 5,6 5,5 5,5 France 9,6 9,6 9,7 9,8 10,1 10,3 10,3 10,3 10,3 10,3 10,2 10,2 Italy 8,1 8,2 8,4 8,7 9,2 9,4 9,7 9,7 9,6 9,5 9,5 9,4 Spain 20,7 20,9 22,0 23,0 23,6 24,2 24,6 24,9 25,0 25,2 25,2 25,1 United Kingdom 7,7 7,9 8,3 8,4 8,5 8,7 8,7 8,7 8,6 8,6 8,6 8,4 5
6 Commodities Price Forecasts at May 9, 2012 End quarter prices mai Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Brent USD/bl Precious metals mai Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Gold USD/oz Publication Manager: Jean-Paul BETBEZE Production and Sub-Editor: Fabienne Pesty Contact: publication.eco@credit-agricole-sa.fr Crédit Agricole S.A. Economic Research Department 12, place des États-Unis Montrouge Cedex This publication reflects the opinion of Crédit Agricole S.A. on the date of publication, unless otherwise specified (in the case of outside contributors). Such opinion is subject to change without notice. This publication is provided for informational purposes only. The information and analyses contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation whatsoever. Crédit Agricole S.A. and its affiliates shall not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising theref rom. Crédit Agricole does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such opinions, nor of the sources of information upon which they are based, although such sources of information are considered reliable. Crédit Agricole S.A. or its affiliates therefore shall not be r esponsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising from the disclosure or use of the information contained in this publication. Economic Research Subscribe to our free online publications 6
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