WORLD Macroeconomic Scenario for Economic and financial forecasts
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1 Edition December 20, 2017 WORLD Macroeconomic Scenario for This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection. More information: Read our central economic projection in our quarterly publication Group Economic Research
2 Interest rate forecasts Short-term interest rates 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Etats-Unis Fed funds M Japon Call rate M Eurozone Repo M United-Kingdom Base rate M Sw eden Repo Norw ay Deposit Canada Overnight Y rates 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 USA Japan Eurozone (Germany) United-Kingdom Spread 10 ans / Bund France Italy Spain Asia 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 China 1Y deposit rate Hong Kong Base rate India Repo rate Indonesia 7D (reverse) repo rate Korea Base rate Malaysia OPR Philippines Repo rate Singapore 6M SOR Taiw an Redisc Thailand Repo Vietnam Refinancing rate Latin America Brazil Overnight/Selic Mexico Overnight rate Emerging Europe Czech Rep. 14D repo Hungary Base rate Poland 7D repo Romania 2W repo Russia 1W auction rate Turkey 1W repo rate o/n lending rate late liquidity rate Africa & Middle East Africa & Middle East Repo South Africa Repo UAE Repo December
3 Exchange Rate Forecasts USD Exchange rate Industrialised countries 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Euro EUR/USD Japan USD/JPY United Kingdom GBP/USD Sw itzerland USD/CHF Canada USD/CAD Australia AUD/USD New Zealand NZD/USD Euro Cross rates Industrialised countries Japan EUR/JPY United Kingdom EUR/GBP Sw itzerland EUR/CHF Sw eden EUR/SEK Norw ay EUR/NOK Asia China USD/CNY Hong Kong USD/HKD India USD/INR Indonesia USD/IDR ,150 Malaysia USD/MYR Philippines USD/PHP Singapore USD/SGD South Korea USD/KRW Taiw an USD/TWD Thailand USD/THB Vietnam USD/VND ,900 Latin America Brazil USD/BRL Mexico USD/MXN Africa South Africa USD/ZAR Emerging europe Poland USD/PLN Russia USD/RUB Turkey USD/TRY Central Europe Czech Rep. EUR/CZK Hungary EUR/HUF Poland EUR/PLN Romania EUR/RON December
4 Economic Forecasts GDP (yoy, %) Consumer prices (yoy, %) Current account (% of GDP) United States Japan Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Other advanced United Kingdom Canada Australia Sw itzerland Sw eden Norw ay Asia China India South Korea Indonesia Taiw an Thailand Malaysia Singapore Hongkong Philippines Vietnam Latin America Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Emerging Europe Russia Turkey Poland Czech Republic Romania Hungary Ukraine Africa, Middle East Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates South Africa Egypt Algeria Qatar Kow eit Morocco Tunisia Total Advanced economies Emerging countries December
5 Real GDP growth, QoQ % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA (annualised) Japan Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Consumer prices, YoY % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA Japan Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Unemployment rate, % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA Japan Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom December
6 GDP (b) Private consumption (b) Public consumption (b) Investment (b) Exports (b) Imports (b) Net exports (a) Changes in inventories (a) Eurozone Q Q Q Q Germany Q Q Q Q France Q Q Q Q Italy Q Q Q Q Spain Q Q Q Q United Kingdom Q Q Q Q Netherlands Q Q Q Q (a) contribution to GDP grow th (%, q/q) (b) q/q, % 20 December
7 Commodities Price Forecasts Dec Av. quarter price Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q5 Brent USD/BBL Dec Precious metals Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gold USD/oz 1,260 1,320 1,340 1,360 1,360 1,380 1,380 1,400 1,420 1,440 Public accounts Government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) United States Japan Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Greece Ireland Portugal United Kingdom Crédit Agricole S.A. Economic Research Department 12, place des États-Unis Montrouge Cedex Publication Manager: Isabelle JOB-BAZILLE Editor-in-Chief: Catherine LEBOUGRE Jean-François PAREN Armelle SARDA Production and Sub-Editor: Fabienne PESTY Contact: Consult Economic Research website and subscribe to our free online publications: Website: ipad : Etudes ECO application available on App store platform Android: Etudes ECO application available on Google store platform This publication reflects the opinion of Crédit Agricole S.A. on the date of publication, unless otherwise specified (in the case of outside contributors). Such opinion is subject to change without notice. This publication is provided for informational purposes only. The information and analyses contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation whatsoever. Crédit Agricole S.A. and its affiliates shall not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising therefrom. Crédit Agricole does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such opinions, nor of the sources of information upon which they are based, although such sources of information are considered reliable. Crédit Agricole S.A. or its affiliates therefore shall not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising from the disclosure or use of the information contained in this publication. 20 December
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