How to Assess Heritage Systems in the Early Phases? Andreas M. Hein
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1 How to Assess Heritage Systems in the Early Phases? Andreas M. Hein SECESA 2014
2 11/8/2014 SECESA
3 1. Motivation Sample mission success / cost & schedule overrun / failure attributed to heritage use: Mission Relevant heritage technology Result Spirit & Opportunity Landing airbags Last minute redesign and retest Mars Express Heritage as risk / cost strategy ATLAST HST, JWST heritage JWST Underestimation of heritage complexity Stardust Acceleration sensor Failure due to insufficient testing, underestimation Mars Observer Bus Failure: change in operational environment MAVEN? Success: attributed to heritage by project officials OCO-2 "Carbon copy" of OCO-1 Success: 95% drawings ready for CDR SMAP? Failure: heritage technology not matured for PDR Phoenix Most components Success MSL Avionics heritage architecture, EDL Viking heritage Cost overruns U.S. Government Accountability Office: > 50% of large NASA projects challenged by heritage (GAO, 2009, p.14) 11/8/2014 SECESA
4 1. Motivation Problem categories: Insufficient heritage verification & validation (Mars Observer) Overestimation of benefits from heritage (Genesis, SMAP, JWST) Uncertainties from modifications not considered (Sprit & Opportunity) Sensitivity of heritage to design evolution not considered (Spirit & Opportunity) Obtaining heritage: Reverse engineering failures (Orion heat shield) 11/8/2014 SECESA
5 11/8/2014 SECESA
6 Research gaps General gap: Lack of a systematic way of assessing the potential and risks of using heritage systems Specific gap: Lack of a methodology for the early phases, where the identification of potential and risks has the biggest leverage 11/8/2014 SECESA
7 11/8/2014 SECESA
8 Defining heritage Heritage is a combination of the maturity of organizational capabilities and verification, validation, testing and operational history associated with a system. A heritage system is based on a proven system design and mature organizational capabilities. 11/8/2014 SECESA
9 Compatibility with ESA heritage categories 11/8/2014 SECESA
10 Modifications impact heritage 11/8/2014 SECESA
11 Heritage assessment methodology Objectives: Assess verification, validation, testing, and operations history at a early stage Assess organizational capabilities at an early stage Assess modifications at an early stage 11/8/2014 SECESA
12 11/8/2014 SECESA
13 Assessment process 11/8/2014 SECESA
14 Assessment process 11/8/2014 SECESA
15 11/8/2014 SECESA
16 Saturn V versus SLS case study 11/8/2014 SECESA
17 VVT assessment: Saturn V for SLS requirements Aspect Specification VVT history Transfer to new application Main function Transport payloads to LEO and beyond 13 launches for Apollo / Skylab program Performance Up to 118t to LEO 13 launches for Apollo / Skylab program Function identical Comparable to early SLS versions (70-120t to LEO) Mapping mission phases to components 11/8/2014 SECESA
18 Assess for VVT heritage Holistic assessment of interactions with surrounding environment, based on system architecture framework (Crawley, 2012) 11/8/2014 SECESA
19 Aspect Occurences VVT history Transfer to new application Supporting systems Use context systems KSC infrastructure Transportation infrastructure Ground control NASA human-rating requirements Stakeholder support: industry 13 launches for Apollo / Skylab program; significant modifications to infrastructure since then Significant changes to human-rating requirements Updating original designs to current technological capabilities Check compatibility with new infrastructure Modifications to original design due to lack of capabilities & changed human-rating requirements foreseeable. 11/8/2014 SECESA
20 Assessment process 11/8/2014 SECESA
21 Assess modifications Three crude modification levels The component design is used for the new application without significant modifications (colour code: green; numerical value: 1) The component design is used for the new application with significant modifications (colour code: orange; numerical value: 0.5) The component is developed from scratch (colour code: red; numerical value: 0) 11/8/2014 SECESA
22 Assess organizational capabilities Running production line for the component exists and no significant changes to the technological capabilities occurred (colour code: green; numerical value: 1) The production line has been recently shut down (1-2 years ago), but can be reconstituted with reasonable effort. Alternatively, the required technological capability is standard industrial practice. A third possibility is a significant modification to the capabilities associated with the technology. (colour code: orange; numerical value: 0.5) No running production line for several years. The design exists but the technological capability has to be reconstituted with considerable effort. (colour code: red; numerical value: 0) 11/8/2014 SECESA
23 Saturn V versus SLS case study New application \ Heritage S-IVB Tank J-2 engine S-II tank S-IC tank F-1 Capability Saturn V 3rd stage S-IVB Tank J-2 engine 2nd stage S-II tank J-2 engine 1st stage S-IC tank F-1 Total heritage value for the Saturn V is 0.5*1 + 2*0*1 + 0* * *1 + 2*0*1 = 1.5 Engines are weighted by a factor 2 Divided by the total number of unique technologies with their weightings Resulting heritage ratio is /8/2014 SECESA
24 Saturn V versus SLS case study New application \ Heritage DCSS RL-10 Capability SLS 2nd stage ICPS Modified DCSS RL-10 1st stage core Modified external tank RS-25D/E Booster SS-SRB 5 segment booster Shuttle external tank RS-25 SS-SRB 4 segment booster Total heritage value for the SLS Block I is 1* *1* * *0.5* *0.5*0.5 = 3.75 Engines are weighted by a factor 2 Divided by the total number of unique technologies with their weightings Resulting heritage ratio is /8/2014 SECESA
25 Saturn V versus SLS case study Saturn V has a low heritage ratio compared to SLS Saturn V s performance competitive with SLS However, current stakeholder environment unlikely to resurrect Saturn V 11/8/2014 SECESA
26 11/8/2014 SECESA
27 Conclusions Heritage assessment methodology for early stages of design presented Assessment of VVT history compared to new application Assessment of environment of heritage system Assessment of modifications Assessment of technological capabilities Demonstration of methodology with Saturn V vs. SLS case study 11/8/2014 SECESA
28 References Crawley, E. (2012) Lecture notes System Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012 GAO (2009) United States Government Accountability Office. NASA Assessment of Selected Large-Scale Projects. Report to Congressional Committees, p.14, March /8/2014 SECESA
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COST ($ in Millions) Prior Years FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Base FY 2015 FY 2015 OCO # Total FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Air Force Page 1 of 5 R-1 Line #15 Cost To Complete Total Program Element - 5.833