2013 Mobile Source Emissions Mecklenburg County, NC
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1 Tons Mobile Source Emissions Inventory CY2013 Mecklenburg County, NC Prepared by: Shelley H. Lanham, Senior Air Quality Specialist May 2015 The annual Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Mecklenburg County, NC has been completed for calendar year This inventory quantifies exhaust emissions from all of the on-road and nonroad vehicles operating in Mecklenburg County using the procedures outlined in Appendix A. The 2013 Mobile Source Emissions Inventory is summarized below, see Appendix B for the complete Emissions Inventory by Fleet Sector. This report focuses on Oxide of Nitrogen (NOx) emissions as mobile sources are the main source of NOx in Mecklenburg County. The Charlotte region is currently classified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a marginal non-attainment area for the Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), though the region demonstrated compliance with the NAAQS at the end of Ozone Season Mobile Source Emissions Mecklenburg County, NC NOx VOC PM2.5 SO2 Total On-Road Nonroad Passenger vehicles and construction equipment continue to be the largest sources of mobile source NOx emissions in Mecklenburg County. Top 5 Mobile Source NOx Emitters Passenger Vehicles Construction Equip't Aircraft Long-haul Trucks Short-haul Trucks Tons
2 Changes in EPA On-Road Emissions Model and NCDAQ Input Calculation Method Mobile source emissions continue the overall downward trend from 2008 to present, Appendix B1. It is difficult to compare the inventories from year to year as the EPA-approved on-road mobile source emissions model has changed twice in this 6 year period. The dramatic decrease from 2012 to 2013 is primarily due to a significant revision to the EPA on-road emissions model, MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES). NCDAQ conducted an evaluation to determine why modeled emissions using MOVES2014 were approximately 50% less than using previous model, MOVES2010b. Results for the Charlotte nonattainment area, presented during a Metrolina Transportation Partners March 10, 2015 conference call, estimate that: Change in model version accounted for approximately 50 difference. Change in source type population calculation method accounted for 40 difference. Change in Model: MOVES2010b to MOVES2014 EPA s MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is a state-of-the-science emission modeling system that estimates mobile source emissions. The Clean Air Act (CAA) requires EPA to regularly update its mobile source emission models. MOVES2014 is a major new revision to EPA s mobile source emission model and it replaces MOVES2010 and its minor revisions (MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b). MOVES2014 includes benefits from new regulations promulgated since the release of MOVES2010b, incorporates new and upto-date emissions data, and has improved functionality compared to MOVES2010b. EPA has compared MOVES2014 on-road emission estimates with MOVES2010b and found, in general 1 : VOC and NOx emissions are lower in MOVES2014. PM emissions may be higher in some areas and lower in others. VOC, NOx, PM, and CO emissions show greater decreases over time compared to MOVES2010b. Change in Source Type Population: New NCDAQ calculation method The decrease in modeled on-road emissions also resulted from a change in North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) methodology to calculate source type (i.e., vehicle type) distribution. Source-type (i.e., vehicle type) population data is used by MOVES to calculate start and evaporative emissions. Running emissions, based on vehicle miles traveled of each type of vehicle, are more significant to emissions than start and evaporative emissions. Formerly, NCDAQ calculated the source type population model input based on national level default assumptions about vehicle mix. This distribution was applied to the number of registered vehicles for each county to generate county-level vehicle mix 2.
3 Number of Vehicles (x10,000) NCDAQ now uses an EPA MOVES tool to estimate the source type population, as explained in a February 9, 2015 phone conversation with Todd Pasley (NCDAQ Environmental Engineer). Using this tool changed the distribution of light duty vehicles, especially for Mecklenburg County: more lower-emitting passenger cars; fewer light-duty trucks and motorcycles. As seen to the right, the estimated source type distributions for 2012 and 2013 are compared to the actual registered vehicles in Mecklenburg County for The 2012 distribution was determined by using the old methodology. The 2013 source type distribution, determined by using the new methodology, better reflects the actual registered vehicle population for 2013 and will result in more representative emissions estimates. Change in Source Type Distribution Estimate 2013 Estimate 2013 Actual Passenger Cars Light Duty Trucks Motorcycles Heavy Duty Trucks Source type population estimates reflected in this 2013 Inventory are considered by NCDAQ to be a more realistic representation of vehicle population distribution and county-level emissions. 1 Environmental Protection Agency. (2014). EPA Releases MOVES2014 Mobile Source Emissions Model. (EPA Publication No. 420-F ). 2 North Carolina Division of Air Quality. (2014). Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, 2008 Ozone Marginal Nonattainment Area, Appendix B.3 North Carolina Emissions Inventory & Emissions Statements SIP.
4 Appendix A. Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Procedure On-Road Mobile Inventory: Model Used: MOVES2014, version Source of Input Date: North Carolina Division of Air Quality o MOVES2014 input files Charlotte Department of Transportation o Average speed o Vehicle miles traveled MOVES2014 was run in inventory mode with results (outputs) broken down vehicle type, hour, day of the week, and month for post processing. Nonroad Mobile Inventory: Models used: NONROAD2008 EDMS Source of Input Data: North Carolina Division of Air Quality o Local nonroad parameters Bureau of Transportation Statistics o Flight data o Aircraft counts Using local air quality parameters, nonroad emissions are calculated by NONROAD2008. Those s are added to pollution generated from aircraft take-offs and landings, as calculated by EDMS The sum of these two model outputs is nonroad air pollution. *Disclaimer: NONROAD2008 uses a base-grow projection model to estimates equipment populations. These population figures are then used to estimate emissions. This method for estimating population lacks the ability to account for the effects of short to medium term economics fluctuations.
5 Appendix B. Table B1: Emissions Inventory Emission Inventory Comparison over Six Years. NOx Air Pollution () VOC PM 2.5 CO CO 2e EPA Approved Emissions Model Mobile6 MOVES2010b MOVES On-Road 13,223 11,395 10,339 13,364 12,184 7,389 Non-Road 7,245 7,020 6,963 6,903 6,409 6,196 Total 20,468 18,415 17,301 20,267 18,593 13,584 On-Road 9,311 9,017 8,406 5,421 5,082 3,175 Non-Road 4,643 4,965 5,308 5,205 5,066 4,055 Total 13,953 13,982 13,714 10,626 10,148 7,230 On-Road Non-Road Total On-Road 117, , , ,757 97,967 40,509 Non-Road 86, , , , , Total 203, , , , ,588 96,517 On-Road 5,564,735 5,566,924 5,726,558 5,195,611 5,113,816 4,278,750 Non-Road 1,085,620 1,120,742 1,204,982 1,222,224 1,100,301 1,295,693 Total 6,650,355 6,687,666 6,931,540 6,417,685 6,214,117 5,574,443 VMT On-Road Missing Missing 11,820,712,100 12,011,831,600 12,011,831,600 12,394,085,195 Mobile source emissions continue the overall downward trend from 2008 to present, Appendix B1. It is difficult to compare the inventories from year to year as the EPA-approved on-road mobile source emissions model has changed twice in this 6 year period. The dramatic decrease from 2012 to 2013 is primarily due to a significant revision to the EPA on-road emissions model, MOVES.
6 Table B2: 2013 On-road Emissions by Fleet Sector On-road Vehicle Type Passenger Vehicle (Car and Truck) NOx VOC PM2.5 CO SO2 CO2e 4,107 56% 2,609 82% 74 32% 35,051 87% 67 87% 3,388,301 79% Light Commercial Truck 429 6% 235 7% 7 3% 3,059 8% 3 4% 169,998 4% Long-haul Truck (Combination and Single Unit) Short-haul Truck (Combination and Single Unit) 1,323 18% 115 4% % 574 1% 4 6% 501,185 12% % 60 2% 16 7% 701 2% 1 1% 98,908 2% Intercity Bus 369 5% 27 1% 21 9% 122 0% 1 1% 68,111 2% School Bus 46 1% 9 0% 3 1% 61 0% 0 0% 9,697 0% Transit Bus 78 1% 7 0% 4 2% 40 0% 0 0% 13,643 0% Motorcycle 36 0% 110 3% 2 1% 862 2% 0 1% 22,085 1% Motor Home 5 0% 2 0% 0 0% 29 0% 0 0% 1,419 0% Refuse Truck 22 0% 1 0% 1 1% 9 0% 0 0% 5,402 0% Grand Total 7,389 3, , ,278,750
7 Table B3: 2013 Nonroad Emissions by Fleet Sector Nonroad Vehicle Type Construction Commercial Commercial Lawn Industrial NOx VOC PM2.5 CO SO2 CO2e 3,034 49% % % 3,533 6% 0 0% 479,512 37% Aircraft 1,513 24% 274 9% 24 5% 1,818 3% % 435,747 34% % % 53 10% 15,854 28% 0 0% 119,080 9% 413 7% 1,184 40% % 25,039 45% 0 0% 127,146 10% 369 6% 53 2% 20 4% 1,343 2% 1 0% 76,579 6% Airport 134 2% 11 0% 9 2% 99 0% 0 0% 21,850 2% Residential Lawn Recreational 61 1% 221 7% 13 2% 6,350 11% 0 0% 23,843 2% 16 0% % 11 2% 1,697 3% 0 0% 7,875 1% Pleasure Craft 18 0% 63 2% 1 0% 254 0% 0 0% 2,493 0% Agricultural Logging Railroad 9 0% 1 0% 1 0% 8 0% 0 0% 1,096 0% 2 0% 1 0% 0 0% 12 0% 0 0% 346 0% 1 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2 0% 0 0% 127 0% Grand Total 6,196 2, , ,295,693
8 Table C1: Difference in MOVES Source Type Population Distribution from 2012 to 2013 due to NCDAQ methodology change. MOVES Source Types Source Type ID 2012 Population % Total 2013 Population % Total Population Difference Motorcycle 11 24,993 4% 10,669 2% % Passenger Car ,579 47% 554,484 84% % Passenger Truck ,145 34% 55,285 8% % Light Commercial Truck 32 74,883 11% 23,219 4% % Intercity Bus % 1,423 0% % Transit Bus % 872 0% % School Bus 43 1,755 0% 2,436 0% % Refuse Truck % 126 0% % Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 12,303 2% 5,188 1% % Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 1,682 0% 355 0% % Motor Home 54 2,885 0% 690 0% % Combination Short-haul Truck 61 2,304 0% 2,000 0% % Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2,876 0% 1,524 0% % Total 656, ,271
9 Table C2: Mecklenburg County Registered Vehicles by Vehicle Type Mecklenburg Vehicle Registration Data Registered Vehicle ID 2013 Population Motorcycle (MC) 10,669 2% Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV) 551,302 84% Light Duty Diesel Vehicles (LDDV) 3,182 0% Light Duty Gasoline Truck 1 (LDGT1) 58,994 9% Light Duty Diesel Truck 1 (LDDT1) 886 0% Light Duty Gasoline Truck 2 (LDGT2) 5,709 1% Light Duty Diesel Truck 2 (LDDT2) 998 0% Heavy-duty Gasoline Vehicle (HDGV) 8,987 1% Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicle (HDDV) 17,544 3% Total 658,271
10 Appendix D: Mobile Source Sector Descriptions On-road Vehicles Intercity Bus Light Commercial Truck Long-haul Truck Motor Home Motorcycle Passenger Vehicle Refuse Truck School Bus Short-haul Truck Transit Bus Cars, trucks, buses and other motor vehicles that travel on public roads Passenger vehicles with a capacity of 15 or more persons primarily used for transport between cities. Four wheel, two axle trucks used primarily for cargo transport. (Combination and Single Unit) Single unit or combination tractor/trailer trucks with more than four tires with a range of operation of over 200 miles. Trucks whose primary functional design is to provide sleeping quarters. Vehicles with less than four wheels. (Car and Truck) Four wheel, two axle vehicles whose primary function is passenger transport and four wheel, two axle trucks whose primary functional design is for cargo, but are used primarily for passenger transport. Trucks primarily used to haul refuse to a central location. Passenger vehicles with a capacity of 15 or more persons used primarily for transport of students for school. (Combination and Single Unit) Single unit or combination tractor/trailer trucks with more than four tires with a range of operation of up to 200 miles. Passenger vehicles with a capacity of 15 or more persons primarily used for transport within cities. Nonroad Vehicles/ Vehicles or equipment designed to travel or operate on unpaved roads, trails, beaches, or rough terrain rather than on public roads. Nonroad equipment includes: Agricultural Aircraft Airport Commercial Construction Industrial 2-wheel tractors, agricultural tractors, combines, balers, agricultural mowers, sprayers, tillers, swathers, irrigation sets Commercial, private and cargo airplanes Fuel trucks, catering trucks, baggage carriers and generators Generators pumps, air compressors, gas compressors, welders, pressure washers Pavers, rollers, scrapers, excavators, concrete/industrial saws, cement & mortar mixers, cranes, graders, off-highway trucks, tractors, loaders, backhoes Aerial lifts, forklifts, sweepers/scrubbers, other general industrial equipment, other material handling equipment, refrigeration, terminal tractors Lawn and Garden Commercial and residential lawnmowers, rotary tillers, chain saws, trimmers/edgers/brush cutters, leafblowers/vacuums, snowblowers, rear engine riding mowers, front mowers, shredders, lawn & garden tractors, chippers/stump grinders, commercial turf equipment Pleasure Craft Railroad Recreational Boats, and personal watercraft Railway maintenance equipment Snowmobiles, ATV/off-road motorcycles, golf carts
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