Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio February 18, Oil Plays
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1 Oil Plays Summary and Recommendation Buy recommendations ranked by the most unlevered sensitivity to six-year oil price start with the two Chinese stocks, CNOOC Ltd (CEO) and PetroChina (PTR) followed by small cap independent producer Encore Acquisition (EAC) followed by mega caps Royal Dutch (RD) and ChevronTexaco (CVX). Oil exposure is measured as total concentration on oil and natural gas minus concentration on North American natural gas (see first and second numerical columns in Tables 1-3 and 2-3) We highlight that characteristic because six-year oil price appears to be in a stronger upward trend currently than six-year natural gas and there is no six-year indicator for other businesses. Kurt H. Wulff, CFA Oil Six-Year Futures and 40 Week Average Dollars Per Barrel /28/2001 2/28/2002 4/28/2002 6/28/2002 8/28/ /28/ /28/2002 2/28/2003 4/28/2003 6/28/2003 8/28/ /28/ /28/2003 Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 1
2 Table 1-1 Energy Producers Rank by McDep Ratio: Market Cap and Debt to Present Value Net ($/sh) Market Present Debt/ Symbol/ 17-Feb Shares Cap Value Present McDep Rating 2004 (mm) ($mm) ($/sh) Value Ratio Mega Cap Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM , , Total S.A. TOT , , Royal Dutch/Shell RD B , , BP plc BP , , ChevronTexaco Corporation CVX B ,064 92, Total or Median 831, Producer/Refiners - Large Cap and Mid Cap Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S , Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO , Valero Energy Corporation VLO , Murphy Oil Corporation MUR , ENI S.p.A. E , Suncor Energy SU , ConocoPhillips COP B , Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. PBR ,096 35, PetroChina Company Ltd (10%) PTR B , Petro-Canada PCZ , Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B , Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B , Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B , Total or Median 265, Independent Natural Gas and Oil Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY , Pogo Producing Company PPP , XTO Energy Inc. XTO B , CNOOC Limited (19%) CEO B , Apache Corporation APA , Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ , Unocal Corporation UCL , Encana Corporation ECA B , Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD , Burlington Resources BR B , Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B , Devon Energy DVN , Total or Median 120, Service Baker Hughes Inc. BHI , Halliburton Company HAL , Schlumberger Ltd. SLB , Total or Median 64, Buy/Sell rating after symbol: B - Buy, S - Sell McDep Ratio = Market cap and Debt to present value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 2
3 Table 1-2 Energy Producers Rank by EV/Ebitda: Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Deprec. Divd or ($/sh) EV/ EV/ Distrib PV/ Symbol/ 17-Feb Sales Ebitda P/E NTM Ebitda Rating 2004 NTM NTM NTM (%) NTM Mega Cap Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM Total S.A. TOT BP plc BP ChevronTexaco Corporation CVX B Royal Dutch/Shell RD B Median Producer/Refiners - Large Cap and Mid Cap Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO Murphy Oil Corporation MUR Suncor Energy SU Valero Energy Corporation VLO ConocoPhillips COP B ENI S.p.A. E Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B PetroChina Company Ltd (10%) PTR B Petro-Canada PCZ Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. PBR Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B Median Independent Natural Gas and Oil XTO Energy Inc. XTO B CNOOC Limited (19%) CEO B Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY Unocal Corporation UCL Apache Corporation APA Burlington Resources BR B Encana Corporation ECA B Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ Pogo Producing Company PPP Devon Energy DVN Median Service Halliburton Company HAL Baker Hughes Inc. BHI Schlumberger Ltd. SLB Median EV = Enterprise Value = Market Cap and Debt; Ebitda = Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization; NTM = Next Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2004; P/E = Stock to Earnings; PV = Present Value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 3
4 Table 1-3 Energy Producers Determinants of Present Value NG & O N. Am. Adjusted McDep Prod/ Gas/ Reserves/ PV/ NG&O Ratio Symbol/ Ebitda Ebitda Prod Ebitda Ebitda/ 17-Feb Rating (%) (%) NTM NTM mcfe 2004 Mega Cap Royal Dutch/Shell RD B Total S.A. TOT BP plc BP ChevronTexaco Corporation CVX B Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM Median Producer/Refiners - Large Cap and Mid Cap Valero Energy Corporation VLO Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S Petro-Canada PCZ Murphy Oil Corporation MUR Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. PBR ENI S.p.A. E Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO ConocoPhillips COP B PetroChina Company Ltd (10%) PTR B Suncor Energy SU Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B Median Independent Natural Gas and Oil Pogo Producing Company PPP Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ Encana Corporation ECA B Devon Energy DVN Apache Corporation APA Unocal Corporation UCL Burlington Resources BR B Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD CNOOC Limited (19%) CEO B Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY XTO Energy Inc. XTO B Median Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 4
5 Table 2-1 Independent Natural Gas and Oil Producers - Small Cap Rank by McDep Ratio: Market Cap and Debt to Present Value Net ($/sh) Market Present Debt/ Symbol/ 17-Feb Shares Cap Value Present McDep Rating 2004 (mm) ($mm) ($/sh) Value Ratio Short Life Spinnaker Exploration Company SKE , Southwestern Energy Company SWN Western Gas Resources WGR , Newfield Exploration Company NFX , Energy Partners Ltd. EPL Denbury Resources Inc. DNR Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK , Stone Energy Company SGY , Range Resources Corporation RRC Westport Resources Corporation WRC , Cimarex Energy Company XEC B , The Houston Exploraton Company THX , PetroKazakhstan Inc. PKZ , St. Mary Land and Exploration CompanySM Forest Oil Corporation FST , Total or Median 21, Long Life Ultra Petroleum Corp. UPL , Unit Corporation UNT , Quicksilver Resources Inc. KWK Penn Virginia Corporation PVA Swift Energy Company SFY Berry Petroleum Company BRY Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL Evergreen Resources, Inc. EVG , Encore Acquisition Corp. EAC B Magnum Hunter Resources, Inc. MHR Vintage Petroleum, Inc. VPI Total or Median 9, Micro Cap Abraxas Petroleum Corporation ABP Purcell Energy, Ltd. (US$) PEL.TO Buy/Sell rating after symbol: B - Buy, S - Sell McDep Ratio = Market cap and Debt to present value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 5
6 Table 2-2 Independent Natural Gas and Oil Producers - Small Cap Rank by EV/Ebitda: Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Deprec. Divd or ($/sh) EV/ EV/ Distrib PV/ Symbol/ 17-Feb Sales Ebitda P/E NTM Ebitda Rating 2004 NTM NTM NTM (%) NTM Short Life Western Gas Resources WGR Southwestern Energy Company SWN Spinnaker Exploration Company SKE Cimarex Energy Company XEC B Denbury Resources Inc. DNR Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK Stone Energy Company SGY Westport Resources Corporation WRC Range Resources Corporation RRC Newfield Exploration Company NFX St. Mary Land and Exploration Company SM Forest Oil Corporation FST Energy Partners Ltd. EPL The Houston Exploraton Company THX PetroKazakhstan Inc. PKZ Median Long Life Ultra Petroleum Corp. UPL Quicksilver Resources Inc. KWK Unit Corporation UNT Evergreen Resources, Inc. EVG Berry Petroleum Company BRY Penn Virginia Corporation PVA Swift Energy Company SFY Encore Acquisition Corp. EAC B Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL Magnum Hunter Resources, Inc. MHR Vintage Petroleum, Inc. VPI Median Micro Cap Abraxas Petroleum Corporation ABP Purcell Energy, Ltd. (US$) PEL.TO EV = Enterprise Value = Market Cap and Debt; Ebitda = Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization; NTM = Next Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2004; P/E = Stock to Earnings; PV = Present Value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 6
7 Table 2-3 Independent Natural Gas and Oil Producers - Small Cap Determinants of Present Value NG & O N. Am. Adjusted McDep Prod/ Gas/ Reserves/ PV/ NG&O Ratio Symbol/ Ebitda Ebitda Prod Ebitda Ebitda/ 17-Feb Rating (%) (%) NTM NTM mcfe 2004 Short Life Spinnaker Exploration Company SKE Energy Partners Ltd. EPL PetroKazakhstan Inc. PKZ Newfield Exploration Company NFX The Houston Exploraton Company THX Cimarex Energy Company XEC B St. Mary Land and Exploration Company SM Stone Energy Company SGY Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK Westport Resources Corporation WRC Western Gas Resources WGR Forest Oil Corporation FST Southwestern Energy Company SWN Range Resources Corporation RRC Denbury Resources Inc. DNR Median Long Life Penn Virginia Corporation PVA Unit Corporation UNT Magnum Hunter Resources, Inc. MHR Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL Swift Energy Company SFY Encore Acquisition Corp. EAC B Ultra Petroleum Corp. UPL Berry Petroleum Company BRY Vintage Petroleum, Inc. VPI Evergreen Resources, Inc. EVG Quicksilver Resources Inc. KWK Median Micro Cap Purcell Energy, Ltd. (US$) PEL.TO Abraxas Petroleum Corporation ABP Neither he nor his spouse act contrary to a buy or sell rating. 7
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