Opportunities in the Zero Emission Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Market

Transcription

1 Opportunities in the Zero Emission Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Market National Association of Clean Air Agencies May 22, 2018 Dan Raudebaugh Executive Director CTE

2 About CTE Mission: To advance clean, sustainable, innovative transportation and energy technologies 501(3)(c) non-profit engineering and planning firm Portfolio - $450 million Research, demonstration, deployment 84 Active Projects Totaling $275 million Focused on Zero Emission Technologies National presence Atlanta, Berkeley, Los Angeles, St. Paul

3 CTE ZEV Services Grant Applications Fleet Transition Strategy and Planning (ZEV Roadmap) Market Surveys Requirements Analysis and Technology Assessment Technical Specifications and Procurement Evaluation Production Oversight, Buy America Audits, and Quality/Resident Inspections Deployment Project Management and Technical Assistance Benefits Analysis and Key Performance Indicator Reporting

4 Zero Emission Vehicle Deployments are Complicated Electrolizer? CNG Reformation? Delivered Hydrogen Renewable Hydrogen?

5 Zero Emission Vehicle Deployments are Complicated Variables: Fuel costs can change hour to hour Vehicle performance can change drastically route to route and season to season Auxiliary loads have a much larger effect Drivers can have huge influence on performance Vehicle efficiencies can vary significantly based on duty cycles and climate User can only access +/- 75 percent of battery capacity Battery capacity decreases over time Buyer Beware!

6 Modeling Provides Data Driven Decisions Provide transit agencies with information that allows their personnel to make datadriven procurement and deployment decisions regarding electric vehicle technology. Answer end-user implementation questions, such as: 1. Which electric-drive technology is the best fit for my route? 2. What are the key differences between electric vehicles on the market today? 3. How do extreme weather conditions affect vehicle performance? 4. How do passenger loads affect vehicle performance? 5. How will driving range change as the batteries age? 6. How often will my vehicle need to charge? How long will charging take? 7. Should I charge my vehicle at our depot, or at an on-route location? 8. What happens if I miss a scheduled charge? 9. Which utility rate structure is best suited for my charge strategy? 10. How will electrical utility costs compare to my current fuel costs? 11. What is the total cost of ownership for the different available technologies?

7 Modeling and Simulation Framework Autonomie TM Simulation Software Developed by Argonne National Lab Model various vehicle components Battery Motor Wheels Chassis Weight HVAC

8 Business Case Analysis Life Cycle Cost Analysis Initial Capital Costs Vehicles Fueling and Power Infrastructure Upgrades to Service Bays Construction Costs Site Prep, Civil, Mechanical, Electrical, Installation, etc. Annual Fuel Cost from Rate Modeling Major Component Replacement Batteries Fuel Cells Installation Total Cost Maintenance Replacement Risk Assessment Power Outage/Grid Disruption Vendor Viability/Support

9 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 $/Mile kwh/mile Key Performance indicators Track & Analyze Performance - Take Corrective Action - Realize Benefits - Repeat Electric Fleet kwh/mile vs. Avg. Temp Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May Monthly Average Cost/Mile Non-Electric Elec Total 60 Fleet Jul Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Sep Monthly Miles/DG(E) kwh/mile Temp (F) $

10 CTE Activity Map Current Projects Pending Projects Members Transit Past Projects

11 Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles 23% Source: EPA

12 Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles

13 VW Medium & Heavy Duty Plans Colorado: Proposing to replace medium-and heavy-duty trucks, school, and shuttle buses, and airport GSE with alternative fuel or electric vehicles DC: Proposing to replace diesel-powered trash trucks with hybridelectric, or electric vehicles; replace diesel-powered circulator buses with electric buses Georgia: Intends to use the funds to replace older, higherpolluting commuter coaches with electric drive technology Idaho: Proposing to use portion of funding for Class 4-8 truck and bus replacement and a portion of funding for locomotive and equipment replacement

14 VW Medium & Heavy Duty Plans Maine: Proposing portion of funds to eligible priority multimodal transportation improvements Nebraska: Proposing portion of allocation to provide grants or rebates to replace up to 5 diesel public transit buses with CNG or BEBs Ohio: Proposing $15M for transit bus replacement Oregon: Identified key legacy vehicle types that include transit buses, refuse trucks, vehicles owned by municipal governments, drayage trucks, and delivery trucks Washington: Identified key opportunities which include electric buses and electric ferries

15 CTE Zero Emission Bus Projects Existing Zero Emission Bus (ZEB) Projects (more than 140 ZEB s with over 30 Transit Agencies) 2017 Low-No Awards with CTE (more than 50 ZEB s with 25 Agencies)

16 2017 LowNo Awards by State

17 List of LowNo Awardees Percent of Request Percent of Scaled Transit Agency State 67% 100% Napa Valley Transportation Authority CA N/A N/A Antelope Valley Transit Authority CA 40% 46% Connecticut Department of Transportation Bridgeport/Hartford CT 20% 30% Delaware Transit Corporation DE 20% N/A Pineallas Suncoast Transit Authority FL 28% 36% City of Tallahassee StarMetro FL 23% 45% Gainesville Regional Transit System FL 24% 29% Jacksonville Transportation Authority FL 21% 31% Broward County Transit FL 43% 76% Macon-Bibb County Transit Authority GA 43% 49% Department of Transportation Services for the City and County of Honolulu HI 40% N/A Champaign Urbana Mass Transit District IL 51% 100% Connect Transit IL 13% 30% LexTran Transit Authority of the Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government KY 17% 31% Lafayette Transit System LA 40% 50% Montgomery County Maryland Department of Transportation MD 12% 20% Mass Transportation Authority MI 46% 75% Bi State Development Agency (St. Louis Metro Transit) MO 13% 15% Missoula Urban Transportation District MT 22% 39% City of Las Cruces NM 56% 78% City of Wilsonville South Metro Area Tragional Transit OR 60% 88% South Carolina Department of Transportation City of Seneca SC 49% 107% VIA Metropolitan Transit TX 47% N/A Citibus (Lubbock) TX 56% 100% City of Madison Metro Transit WI

18 Takeaways: LowNo Opportunities All projects already vetted and chosen through thorough FTA selection process Money pays the difference between cost of diesel (450K) or diesel hybrid ($550K) and battery electric ($700-$900K) and fuel cell electric ($1.2 million) A small investment of VW funds makes a project whole and leverages FTA funds and private funds to develop a project with a high chance of success

19 Medium & Heavy Duty ZEV Not as far along as transit bus industry Ready for next generation prototypes and limited deployments Kenworth ready to deploy drayage truck in port applications Ballard interested in funding a 50 delivery truck demonstration with UPS or Fedex in major urban area