Marketing New Powertrain Technologies. UMTRI Automotive Futures Group Focus on the Future UM Automotive Research Conferences WELCOME!

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1 Marketing New Powertrain Technologies UMTRI Automotive Futures Group Focus on the Future UM Automotive Research Conferences WELCOME! Bruce M. Belzowski University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Managing Director-Automotive Futures

2 Automotive Futures University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Funding Affiliate Program Research Conferences Supporting Members Research Partners Globalization Powertrains IT 5 Annual Conferences

3 Automotive Futures Affiliate Program Affiliate Members Aisin Technical Center of America Argonne National Labs BorgWarner Inc. Bosch Corporation Delphi Corporation Denso Corporation Ford Motor Company Valeo Corporation

4 Automotive Futures Research Partners Research Partners IT Organizations HP IBM Oracle Corporation Siemens-PLM OEMs FCA LLC Ford Motor Company General Motors Nissan Tech Center Toyota Tech Center Government/NGOs Argonne National Labs CALSTART CARB Energy Foundation Federal Motor Carrier The Hewlett Foundation ICCT NRDC Michigan DOT NREL NSF Government/NGOs Union of Concerned Scientists US Army-TARDEC US DOT US EPA US DOE

5 Suppliers BASF BorgWarner Bosch Chevron Continental Denso Dana Delphi Dow Eaton JATCO Automotive Futures Research Partners Research Partners Suppliers JCI Lear Magna Means Michelin Peterson Spring TRW Yazaki Visteon Valeo Consultants AT Kearney AVL FEV McKinsey Ricardo Roland Berger

6 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs Powertrains Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century Survey (A collaboration with SAE) Survey results have been distributed to Affiliates Total Cost of Ownership: Comparing Diesel and Gas Vehicles (Bosch) Based on resale value of 30K vehicles sold through Mannheim auctions in 2012 / 2013 Report available

7 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs ITS The Future of Automotive Safety Sensors (Sponsor: NHTSA) In Progress Comprehensive V2X Retrofit Study of Heavy Trucks (Sponsor: NHTSA) In Progress Integrated Mobile Observations: Micro-level weather reporting using cell phones in MDOT vehicles (Sponsor: MDOT and FHWA) Report available.

8 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs ITS Stuck in Traffic: Analyzing Real Time Traffic Capabilities of Personal Navigation Devices and Traffic Phone Applications Final report available Roadway Evaluation Project: Measuring road roughness via accelerometers in cell phones mounted in MDOT vehicles Final report available

9 ITS Automotive Futures Current Research Programs Deploying Safety Technologies in Commercial Vehicles Familiarity and penetration currently and in the future of: Forward Collision Warning / Lane Departure Warning / Blind Spot Detection / ESC / Vehicle Communications Final report available (Sponsor: ITS America)

10 Automotive Futures Researchers Student Researchers: Alexa Kershenheiter: Senior, Mechanical Engineering Working on study of the effects of autonomous vehicles on society, the economy, and the individual study Camille Cu, Senior, Economics and Jaclyn Zhu, Senior, Economics Chinese electric vehicle industry: subsidies Aaron Dalal, Sophomore, Business UM Automotive Industry Student Survey Michael Ross, Sophomore, Electrical Engineering UM Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century Survey Brian Roche, Sophomore, Political Science UMTRI Automotive Futures Focus on the Future Conferences

11 Upcoming UMTRI-AF Conferences April 18, 2018: New Mobility Conference. Our 4 th annual New Mobility conference will investigate mobility as a service transportation business models that support sustainability as well as transport. July 18, 2018: Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century: Our 10 th annual conference that focuses on major issues related to the future powertrains. This conference is also the place to see the results of our annual Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century expert survey that estimates powertrain technology penetration for 2020 and 2025.

12 Upcoming UMTRI-AF Conferences September 11, 2018: The Future of Automotive IT: Driving Organizations, Vehicle Development, and Connected/ Autonomous Vehicles. Our 10th annual conference focused on the Future of Automotive IT shows the different sides of automotive IT and how it continues to change automotive organizations and vehicles. November 15, 2018: Inside China: Understanding China s Current and Future Automotive Industry. Our 11th annual Inside China conference has traced the rapid rise of the Chinese auto industry. The largest automotive market in the world is such a unique market that it demands that we continue to examine both its current and future trends from a variety of perspectives: consumer choice, marketing, product development, government support and regulations, alternative energy, automotive research and development, industry structure, labor, economic impact, and manufacturing.

13 Conference Presenters/Schedule 9am Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, Automotive Futures, UM Transportation Research Institute Scott Gallett, Vice President of Marketing, BorgWarner Corporation John Major, Regional VP, Midwest Operations, Vice President, Government Relations and Military Liaison, Achates Power Break (30 minutes) Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, Automotive Futures, UM Transportation Research Institute

14 Conference Presenters/Schedule Mike VanNieuwkuyk, Vice President, Ipsos Xavier Mosquet, Senior Partner, The Boston Consulting Group Conference Q&A 1:30pm 2:00pm Lunch Adjourn

15 Post Conference Mailing Attendees: Link to presentations Affiliates: Link to presentations sent to all company representatives in our database Document and link to a review of highlights from the conference

16 Housekeeping Restrooms Wireless Cell Phones: Silent Speaker Bios Question Cards

17 Conference Questions How do established market new powertrain technologies to manufacturers? What challenges do powertrain suppliers face in developing new powertrain technologies? How long does it take for an engine supplier to get new engine technology into a manufacturer s vehicle? What are the differentiators in selling powertrain technology to manufacturers?

18 Conference Questions How well are dealers prepared to sell vehicles with new powertrain technologies? How are manufacturers supporting their dealers in selling new powertrain technologies? When will we see the tipping point for sales of EVs in the US? Will it be different from China s and the EU s? What are the key indicators that signal the tipping point for EVs?

19 Conference Questions What strategies are governments using to support new powertrain technologies? What methods are used by the Chinese government to support EVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles?

20 Sales and Marketing of New Powertrains

21 Experts expect growth in the use of mild hybrid, full hybrid, and electric powertrains by 2025 for passenger cars Spark Ignited Hybrid Advanced Diesel Electric Hybrids (2025) Full: 6% Plug in: 7% Mild: 13% Diesel:.5% Extended Range Fuel Cell Growth, but low penetration Percentage Penetration

22 Experts expect an increase in the use of advanced diesel powertrains by 2025 for light trucks Spark Ignited Advanced Diesel Hybrid Electric Extended Range Fuel Cell Growth, but low penetration Hybrids (2025) Full: 4% Plug in: 3% Mild: 10% Diesel: 1% Percent Penetration

23 US Plug-In Vehicle Sales 250, , , , , , , , ,614 50, ,425 52, Source: Inside EVs

24 Predominant Alternate Fuel Types Source: U.S. DOE

25 Global Plug-In Vehicle Sales,400,000.00,200, ,150,000,000, , , , , , , , , , , Source: Statista

26 Plug-In Sales and % Growth by Region Source: EV Volumes

27 Global Electric Car Stock by Country,

28 US Model Sales: Toyota Mirai 2, , ,838 1, , , , , Source: Car Sales Base

29 Toyota Mirai Marketing Strategies -Company provides three years of complimentary fuel or $15,000 rebate -Advertised during 2017 Super Bowl, but only in California -May create sub-models in the future to attract diversified customer base Sources: AutoWeek, Boston.com, Hybridcars.com

30 U.S. Model Sales: Honda Clarity 3, , ,455 2, , , (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base

31 Honda Clarity Marketing Strategies - Beyond the Battery advertising campaign to reduce confusion about plug-in hybrids - $15,000 fuel allowance - T.V. advertising campaign in California only Sources: PR Newswire and Green Car Reports

32 U.S. Model Sales: Chevrolet Volt 30, , ,461 23,094 24,739 20, ,805 20,349 15, ,393 10, ,671 5, (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base 713

33 Chevrolet Volt Marketing Strategies - De-emphasis on T.V. advertising - Targeted marketing (those who have bought AFVs in the past - Acknowledgement that Volt buyers are not typical Chevy customers Source: CS Monitor

34 U.S. Model Sales: Chevrolet Bolt 25, ,297 20, , , , , (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base

35 Chevrolet Bolt Marketing Strategies - Non-traditional (70% of Bolt buyers are new to Chevy) - Emphasis on Bolt being a normal, but special car - Resolving brand confusion (Volt vs. Bolt) Source: CS Monitor, News Wheel

36 U.S. Model Sales: Toyota Prius Family 250, , , , , , , ,661 50, (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base 6,943

37 Toyota Prius Family Marketing Strategies - Emphasizing Mirai as Prius successor - Phasing out all gas powered vehicles by 2050 Source: NBC News

38 U.S. Model Sales: Tesla Model S / Model X / Model 3 60, , ,644 50,145 40, , ,416 20, ,698 10, (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base 3,375

39 Tesla Model S Marketing Strategies - $0 Marketing Budget Source: AdAge

40 Model Sales: Nissan Leaf 35, , , , , , , (Jan) Source: Car Sales Base 150

41 Nissan Leaf Marketing Strategies - Cameos in high-profile movies (Disney s A Wrinkle in Time) - Emphasize fun aspects of EVs - Framed as affordable choice among EVs Sources: Black Press USA, Warc, Autonews

42 Advertising Dollars Spent: Ford Focus v. Focus Electric

43 Advertising Dollars Spent: Mercedes B Class Electric v. C Class

44 Advertising Dollars Spent: Nissan Leaf v. Sentra

45 Advertising Dollars Spent: Chevrolet Volt v. Cruze

46 Advertising Dollars Spent: Volkswagen egolf v. Golf

47 Relative Advertising Dollars Spent

48 Marketing New Powertrain Technologies UMTRI Automotive Futures Group Focus on the Future UM Automotive Research Conferences WELCOME! The Link to Presentations Will Be ed This Weekend

49 Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030

50 EV Stock vs. Available Chargers

51 EV Market Share by Country Source: IEA