Petrochemicals Global Trends & Opportunities for Investment in India. A N JHA, Executive Director ( Petrochemical- Project )

Transcription

1 Petrochemicals Global Trends & Opportunities for Investment in India A N JHA, Executive Director ( Petrochemical- Project ) Date: 5 th Oct 2018

2 Structure of Presentation Petrochemicals Business- Environment scan Petrochemicals Global Trends Petrochemicals: Demand Supply Outlook Opportunity for Investments Conclusions 2

3 Petrochemical Business: Environment Scan India is one of the Fastest growing large Economy PolymerDemandisgrowingat1.5timesofGDP Lower per capita Polymer consumption base 10 kg/capita compared to global average consumption of 35 kg/capita Regional imbalance, Polymer per capita Consumption Eastern India : 3.4 Kg/Capita Northern India: 5.7 Kg/Capita Southern India: 7.6 Kg/Capita Western India : 17.0 Kg/Capita Strong Govt. support to boost economy Swachh Bharat to boost Water& sewage network, Hygiene and sanitation 100 Smart cities DigitalIndia Make in India/ Start-up India 100% FDI in food retail and many more initiatives 3

4 Global Trends: Refinery- Petrochemicals Integration Process Integration Innovative design considering downstream Utility Integration Heat, Hydrogen, water, power, steam Nitrogen, Air etc. Utilization of gas fuel - Utilization of Hydrogen, hydrocarbon present in gas fuel as feedstock Crude to Chemicals/ Petrochemical Refinery Refinery Refinery & Aromatics Refinery, Aromatics & Olefins Crude to Chemicals Petrochemical Intensity Index : 0% Petrochemical Intensity Index : 10% Petrochemical Intensity Index : 20% Petrochemical Intensity Index : 35-50%

5 Typical Global Refinery-Petrochemicals Integration model 5

6 Indian Polymer Growth Trend KTA Production DEMAND IMPORTS Polymer demand (PE+PP) 10% CAGR during past 5 years Opportunity for Investment in Polymers 6 Source: ICIS Report, 2017

7 Indian Fibre Intermediates Growth Trend KTA Production DEMAND IMPORTS FibreIntermediates(PTA&MEG)demandincreased@8%CAGRduringpast5years Opportunity for Investment in Fibre Source: ICIS Report,

8 India Supply Demand Scenario for Top Imported Petrochemicals S. No Product Domestic Production (KTA) Demand (KTA) Imports in 2017 (KTA) Value (Rs Crore) %CAGR ( )# 1 PVC % 2 PX % 3 Styrene % 4 PP % 5 HDPE % 6 LLDPE % 7 Methanol % 8 LDPE % 9 Metallocene LLDPE 10 Polyether Polyols % % *Source: Import data from the website of Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce & Industry # ICIS Report,

9 India Supply Demand Scenario for Top Imported Petrochemicals S. No Product Domestic Production (KTA) Demand (KTA) Imports in 2017(KTA) Value (Rs. Crore) %CAGR ( )# 11 Polycarbonate % 12 MethylDiphenyl Diisocyanate (MDI) % 13 MEG % 14 VinylChloride Monomer (VCM) 15 Styrene Butadiene Rubber % % 16 Toluene % 17 Ethyl Vinyl Acetate (EVA) % 18 Alpha Olefins % 19 Phenol % 20 Butyl Rubber % TOTAL 17,407 25,114 9,783 54,859 * Net imports of Petrochemicals has increased from Rs.10,601 Crore in to Rs. 54,859 Crore in 2017 *Source: Import data from the website of Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce & Industry # ICIS Report,

10 Petrochemicals : Investment Opportunities Based on the domestic Demand-Supply Scenario and future growth rate, opportunities exists for capacity enhancement of following products: Olefins(Polyethylene + Polypropylene) Poly-Vinyl Chloride(PVC) Methanol Styrene Ethylene Glycol Elastomers(SBR, Butyl Rubber etc.) Speciality Chemicals(Polyols, Hydrocarbon Resins, MMA/PMMA etc) Polyester Yarn/Fibre -- CP and Downstream Olefins-Value added compoundings 10

11 Supply Demand Scenario-Major Products, KTPA S.No. Petrochemical Name Total Capacity (Installed+Under Construction) Total Demand Yr 2025 Yr 2030 Yr PE ,430 15,068 29,493 (HDPE+LLDPE+LDPE) 2 PP ,335 22, PVC ,425 MEG Acetic Acid SBR/PBR Butyl Acylate

12 Requirement of C2 and C3 Monomers C2 Year Monomer Requirement Existing/ProjectedProduction C2 from Incremental Refining Capacity Net Capacity Required C3 Year Monomer Requirement Existing/ProjectedProduction C3 from Incremental Refining Capacity Net Capacity Required The monomer requirement is based on demand of bulk polymers namely PVC, PE & MEG as per Petrochemical Perspective Plan

13 Cracker Capacity and Estimated Investment Parameter Yr 2025 Balance C2 required from Crackers 7046 Balance C3 required from Crackers 1305 Total Number of Crackers required KTPA C2 Capacity) Approximate Investment (Rs Cr) 5 1,75,000-2,00,000 (100% Gas feed) 2,00,000-2,25,000 (Dual feed) The Crackers may be Gas based or Dual feed based. The choice of feedstock will depend on prevailing economics, feedstock availability, relative prices of feedstocks etc. The feedstock availability from Refineries shall depend on capacity expansion projects implemented in future. BeyondYr2025,InordertomeetprojectedpetrochemicaldemandofYr2040, onan average one Cracker of 1.5 MMTPA capacity is required every year. 13

14 Capital Investment Estimations of Olefin Production Source ICIS 14

15 Strategy for Investment in Petrochemicals Long Term (Immense cost) Steam Crackers Poly Olefins (PE & PP) Ethylene Glycols Short Term (Base cost) Value added Poly Olefins (Compounding & Others) Mid Term (Standard cost) Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) Styrene Phenol Elastomers Polyesters

16 Conclusions: Deficit in Indian Petrochemical Markets & sustained Growth Investment opportunity in olefins and speciality petrochemicals & chemicals- High Value- Mid term/ Long Term Investment opportunity in Deep downstream in Yarn/ Fibres andvalueaddedpolymers. Lowcost -shortterm 16

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18 Petrochemicals : Japanese Investment in Neemrana, Gurgaon (India) & Others Company T S Tech Company Limited Roki Minda Company Pvt. Limited Mitsui Prime advanced Composites India Private Limited Mytex Polymers (Subsidiary of Mitsubishi chemical corporation, Japan) Sekisui DLJM Molding Pvt. Limited Kingfa, Basell(Zylog), APPL, Hyundai, Machino Polymer etc Products Resin based AutomotiveProducts for Motorcycle, seats and other parts Automotive air intake system, carbon canister, Power steering fluids, filters Automotive interior and exterior components High performance engineered Polyolefin Automotive Interior components. AutomotiveCompounders with Homo/RCP/ICP Polymers ( MFI) 18