Financial Presentation - First Three Months 2009

Transcription

1 1 Financial Presentation - First Three Months 2009 WF10669 C. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO Geoff Turbott, VP Finance and CFO

2 2 Disclaimer DISCLAIMER Certain statements made in this presentation involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain statements relating to Lundin Petroleum s business and operations are based on management s expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Certain statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such statements. Lundin Petroleum makes no commitment, and disclaims any duty, to update or revise any of these statements. This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a solicitation or offering of securities in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to qualify, supplement or amend information disclosed under corporate and securities legislation of any jurisdiction applicable to Lundin Petroleum and should not be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions concerning any securities of Lundin Petroleum. WF8278

3 3 Financial Results - First Three Months MSEK MUSD 63 MUSD MSEK % Net Profit First 3 months 2008 Net Profit First 3 months WF10606 q

4 4 Financial Results - First Three Months MUSD 108 MUSD % MSEK MUSD 63 MUSD MSEK % Net Profit First 3 months 2008 Net Profit First 3 months 2009 Operating Cash Flow First 3 months 2008 Operating Cash Flow First 3 months WF10606 q

5 5 Financial Results - First Three Months MUSD 108 MUSD % MUSD % MUSD MSEK MUSD 63 MUSD MSEK % Net Profit First 3 months 2008 Net Profit First 3 months 2009 Operating Cash Flow First 3 months 2008 Operating Cash Flow First 3 months 2009 EBITDA First 3 months 2008 EBITDA First 3 months WF10606 q

6 6 Financial Performance - First Three Months 2009 First 3 Months 2009 First 3 Months 2008 Production 38,800 BOEPD 27,100 BOEPD (after minority interest) Oil Price Achieved USD 43.47/BOE USD 83.95/BOE Cost of Operations USD 14.48/BOE USD 23.41/BOE (including minority interest) WF10676 b 05.09

7 7 Netback - First Three Months 2009 [USD/boe] Average Brent oil price Production MMboe (before MI) Q CMD - Jan 09 Forecast Revenue Cost of operations Tariffs Production taxes Changes in inventory & under/overlift Cash Margin Depletion Exploration costs Margin Netback WF10676 c 05.09

8 8 Revenue Netback Reconciliation - First Three Months 2009 [USD/boe] Average Brent oil price Sales differential Russia Gas price differential Other Sales price achieved Adjustment sales to production boe Government take UK quality difference Inventory movements Tariff receipts & other income Effective sales price per boe produced Actual first 3 months CMD - Jan 09 Forecast WF

9 9 Cost of Operations - First Three Months 2009 MMBOE USD/boe MUSD Actual Q X = 51.2 Forecast CMD Q X = 61.7 % Change to Forecast -1.7% -18.4% -20.7%* * -4.0% if forecast is foreign exchange adjusted WF10676 d 05.09

10 10 Taxation - First Three Months 2009 Effective rate of tax Current tax charge Deferred tax charge 70% -71 MSEK 290 MSEK WF10676 e 05.09

11 11 Balance Sheet - 31 March 2009 Fixed Assets Net Current Assets (excluding cash) Net Bank Debt Shareholder Equity Net Debt/Equity Ratio 31 Mar , ,765 12,120 39% 31 Dec , ,869 11,438 34% numbers in million SEK WF10676 f 05.09

12 Forecast Capital Expenditure Forecast 2009 CMD - Jan 09 Forecast Development Expenditure 175 MUSD 215 MUSD Foreign exchange impact Part of Volund expenditure delayed to Exploration Expenditure 310 MUSD 345 MUSD Foreign exchange impact Malaysia 3D Seismic Norway StatoilHydro Farmouts Well on PL410 delayed to 2010 WF10676 i 05.09

13 13 Liquidity MUSD Secured Revolving Borrowing Base Facility 850 Unsecured Corporate Facility 150 Total Credit Facility 1,000 Borrowing Base Loan 31 March Cash 31 March Net Debt 31 December WF10676 g 05.09

14 14 Liquidity - Borrowing Base Determination Availability amount recalculated every six months Based upon banks oil price and economic parameters Utilising cashflows from certain 2P reserves Borrowing base amounted to approx. USD 1.1 billion at 1 January 2009 Currently undergoing redetermination Banks syndicate have unanimously approved the borrowing base Availability limited by facility size of USD 850 million USD 150 million unsecured facility maturing late 2010 is fully available WF10676 h 05.09

15 15 Lundin Petroleum - Asset Summary United Kingdom 4 production licences, 18 exploration licences Ireland 2 exploration licences France 14 production licences, 6 exploration licences Congo Brazzaville 2 exploration licences Norway 3 production licences, 1 development licence, 32 exploration licences Netherlands 18 production licences, 1 exploration licence Tunisia 1 production licence, 2 development licences Russia 4 producing licences, 1 exploration licence Cambodia 1 exploration licence Vietnam 1 exploration licence Malaysia 3 exploration licences Indonesia 3 production licences, 4 exploration licences 2 study option licences Three Core Areas: Europe, Russia, Far East WF tcore

16 16 First Three Months Key Highlights First three months 2009 average production 38,800 boepd at high end of forecast Alvheim first quarter production 13,800 boepd Broom first quarter production 5,400 boepd Thistle first quarter production 3,600 boepd Appraisal programme Luno appraisal well completed, tested 4,000 bopd 2P reserves for Luno field expected to be booked in second quarter at within the original MMboe range Deal activity Norway - Acquisition of 40% interest (and operatorship) in Krabbe PL301 from Talisman Norway - StatoilHydro farmout in Greater Luno Area - PL359 (30%), PL410 (30%), PL409 (10%) Norway - Two new licences awarded, PL519 and PL533, in 20th Round Ethiopia and Kenya - Exploration assets sold to Africa Oil Corp. WF

17 17 Production Q Actual: 38,800 boepd* 45,000 40,000 35,000 22% 11% High/low range Q boepd 30,000 25,000 20, Q Q WF * after minority interest

18 Production Forecast Netherlands 6% Indonesia 7% France 9% Norway 38% 2009 production guidance 35,000-42,000 boepd Q Actual: 38,800 boepd* Russia 14% 50,000 45,000 Tunisia 2% 40,000 35,000 Norway UK UK 24% 30,000 25,000 20,000 Net boepd Tunisia Russia Indonesia Netherlands Forecast High Forecast Low Actual Q ,000 10,000 5,000 France Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 WF * after minority interest

19 19 Reserves Growth 250 Reserves Replacement Ratio of 357% (cumulative production: 62.5 MMBOE) 200 MMboe Russia U.K. Norway Tunisia Venezuela Netherlands Indonesia France WF

20 Proven & Probable Reserves Russia (18.6) France (26.4) Gas 14.5% Indonesia (15.2) Oil 85.5% Netherlands (4.3) Total MMboe U.K. (82.1) MMboe Produced (forecast) New reserves (excl sales/acquisitions) Sales/acquisitions MMboe Norway (70.5)* Tunisia (0.4) Reserves Replacement Ratio 394% Increase in Reserves 26% WF * Excluding Luno

21 21 Contingent Resources - 1 January MMboe Others, 13.0 France, 9.6 to Reserves Nemo Thistle Heather Broom Peik Grandville Norway, UK, Thistle Infill - Heather Infill - Heather Triassic - SW Heather - Broom Infill - Scolty Others, 15.6 France, 9.9 Norway, Luno - Greater Alvheim Area - Pi - SE Tor -Morskaya UK, 60.3 Discoveries +120 MMboe Morskaya, Pi, SE Walio Russia, MMboe net Lundin Petroleum MMboe net Lundin Petroleum 2009 WF

22 P090 PL088 BS PL150 PL088 PL088 BS PL203 PL413 PL036C 22 Norway Production/Development - Alvheim & Volund Alvheim Field Lundin Petroleum 15% Marathon 65% (operator), ConocoPhillips 20% Gross Reserves 223 mmboe ( ) Up from 215 mmboe ( ) Q gross production 92,000 boepd (start-up in June 08) Peak Alvheim Norway production to date 117,000 boepd LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner 9/14a-6 0 KM 4 UK 9/15a-2 PEIK (UK) P090 9/15a-1 PL088 PL088 BS PEIK (NO) 24/6-1 PL088 PL413 PL036C FPSO status Commenced production in June 2008 Peak throughput (to date) of 143,000 bbl/d - original design capacity of 120,000 bbl/d Volund field (Lundin Petroleum 35%) to be tied-in in late 2009 P /15b-3 9/15b-4 24/6-3 ALVHEIM ALVHEIM 24/6-2 25/4-7 ALVHEIM Alvheim HEIMDAL /4-8 Volund Field 9/14b-2B /4-3 GEKKO Lundin Petroleum 35% Marathon 65% (operator) Gross Reserves 49 mmboe Subsea tie-back to Alvheim Net Plateau production 8,700 boepd First oil late 2009 Development drilling ongoing Subsea installation substantially complete Area 3) 24/9-4 PL340 PL150 24/9-5 VOLUND 24/9-6 24/9-7 25/7-6 25/7-5 Volund PL203 Norway WF

23 23 UK Assets UK Q Production: 10,400 bopd net Reserves ( ): 82.1 MMboe Operating cost per barrel (1) Heather/Broom 21.0 USD/boe (2009) Thistle 52.5 USD/boe (2009) UK Consolidated 28.5 USD/boe (2009) Thistle 28.0 USD/boe (2) (2010) 18 19b a c 20e 25c 25a 25b 30 16a 21a 17 18b THISTLE 22aNW d 22b 21b CORMORANT AREA 27aHUTTON 28b 19a DUNLIN 24c 9c 9a 12a 12d 8b VIGDIS 7a 7c SENTRAL a GIMLE GULLFAKS 10b 10a 11a VALEMON 26a WF Don tariff income to commence in 2010 (1) USD 1.5/ (2) Includes Don tariff income HEATHER BROOM 3 4b 5 HEATHER SW a 10b CHEVIOT 15a b 1c 1a 1b P1406 6b 11c 11b 11a 27e LYELL 2 3 2F1 3F1 NINIAN 7e 8b 8a 003 7aS 8f 12a 13b 12b 8d 4b 4a 5 3a 4aF3 Norway 3c 9c 9a 6d 9b DUNBAR 14a 6b 15 UK 10d 1a 1b 2b c 4d 5b 4b 0 KM 15

24 24 Norwegian Assets Exploration WP & Forecast Greater Luno Area Total: USD 68 MM (USD 40 MM drilling) 2 wells Greater Alvheim Area Total: USD 61 MM (USD 57 MM drilling) 4 wells Others Total: USD 66 MM (USD 42 MM drilling) 1 well Grand Total: USD 195 MM (USD 139 MM drilling) Net 2009 unrisked resource exposure: 340 MMboe WF

25 25 Drilling to Commence Songa Dee Semi submersible 1.5 year contract (including option) Drilling May/June 2009 Transocean Winner Semi submersible 1 year rig share contract from 2H 2009 WF

26 26 Greater Alvheim Area - Exploration PL363 Four exploration wells PL304 (50%) Aegis prospect 104 MMboe - drilling P090 (9/15a) PL088 PL413 PL036c PL363 PL412 PL340 (15%) Marihone prospects A/B 37 MMboe - drilling 2009 PL363 (60%) Mon prospect 123 MMboe - drilling UK PL340 PL150 PL203 PL PL412 PL412 (30%) Eiganes prospect 100 MMboe - drilling 2009 Net 2009 unrisked resource exposure: 162 MMboe PL PL304 PL304 Norway WF All numbers are gross unrisked

27 27 Luno Discovery - PL338 Discovered in 2007 Peik field Alvheim field PL088 P090 PL413 PL036c PL363 Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (Operator) Wintershall 30%, RWE 20% Discovery 16/1-8 Major light oil discovery New play concept proven Significant working interest in adjoining acreage 008 UK Volund field 009 PL340 PL PL203 PL505 PL PL167 PL167B PL412 Norway 0026 Contingent Gross Resources Luno discovery Discovery MMBOE PL338 PL501 Luno PL359 PL PL409 WF Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner 0 KM 20

28 28 Successful Luno Appraisal 16/1-8 (Luno discovery well) 16/1-10 (Luno appraisal well) Tested 4,000 bopd OWC Incorporate drilling and test results into updated subsurface model Expected to book Luno reserves in Q within previous range ( MMboe) WF

29 29 Exploration Potential in Greater Luno Area Luno discovery 2007 Succesfully appraised 2009 (reserves expected to be booked in Q2 09 within MMboe range) Luno Discovery PL167 (Lundin 20%) Luno appraisal well PL501 (Lundin 40%) PL338 (Lundin 50%) Luno Discovery MMboe 16/ /1-8 Luno discovery PL359 (Lundin 40%) PL410 (Lundin 70%) WF10358 q

30 30 Exploration Potential in Greater Luno Area Luno discovery 2007 Succesfully appraised 2009 (reserves expected to be booked in Q2 09 within MMboe range) Luno Discovery PL167 Luno Extensions (Lundin 20%) PL501 (Lundin 40%) PL 338 (50%) Luno extension (sub-basins) - exploration well to be drilled in second half 2009 Luno Discovery MMboe PL338 (Lundin 50%) 16/1-10 Luno appraisal well 16/1-8 Luno discovery Luno extension MMboe (Mid 241 MMBoe) Luno extension well Second half 2009 PL359 (Lundin 40%) PL410 (Lundin 70%) WF10358 q

31 31 Exploration Potential in Greater Luno Area Luno discovery 2007 Succesfully appraised 2009 (reserves expected to be booked in Q2 09 within MMboe range) Luno Discovery PL167 Luno Extensions (Lundin 20%) PL501 (Lundin 40%) WF10358 q PL 338 (50%) Luno extension (sub-basins) - exploration well to be drilled in second half 2009 PL 359 (40%) Exploration well in well is targeting Luno High in the north east corner of the licence PL 410 (70%) Exploration well, in 2009/2010 PL 501 (40%) Awarded January 2009 Exploration well in 2010 TOTAL UNRISKED RESOURCE POTENTIAL IN LUNO AREA: MMBOE GROSS** Luno Discovery MMboe Luno extension MMboe (Mid 241 MMBoe) PL338 (Lundin 50%) 16/1-10 Luno appraisal well 16/1-8 Luno discovery 16/2-3 16/2-4 RAGNAR ROCK 16/2-5 Luno extension well Second half 2009 PL359 (Lundin 40%) PL410 (Lundin 70%) Luno High 108* MMboe Well in 2H 2009 Statoil wells Luno 3 Prospect 113* MMboe Latest Statoil exploration well * Luno High mean 150 MMboe, Luno 3 mean 153 MMboe ** Excludes Avaldsnes prospect in PL501 Avaldsnes prospect

32 32 StatoilHydro Farm into Greater Luno Area Farmout agreement signed with StatoilHydro in April 2009 for licences in the Greater Luno Area 30% interest in PL359 and % interest PL409 Lundin Petroleum remains operator StatoilHydro carrying disproportionate share of 3D seismic costs and first exploration well in PL359 and PL410. Ground floor terms in PL409 Exploration wells in PL359 and PL410 in 2009/2010 Rig swap agreement signed with StatoilHydro Lundin Petroleum has option of 2 Barents Sea rig slots in exchange for 2 North Sea slots UK PL359 Lundin (Operator) 40% StatoilHydro 30% SLEIPNER WEST SLEIPNER EAST PL304 PL167/167B StatoilHydro (Operator) 80% Lundin 20% PL338 Norway 0016 PL265 RAGNAR ROCK 0 KM 20 Luno discovery PL502 PL410 Lundin (Operator) 70% StatoilHydro 30% PL409 Lundin (Operator) 90% StatoilHydro 10% PL501 Lundin (Operator) 40% StatoilHydro 40% Oil Gas Condensate Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner StatoilHydro Interests WF

33 33 Barents Sea PL438 Lundin Petroleum 35% (operator) PL490 Lundin Petroleum 40% (operator) PL492 Lundin Petroleum 40% (operator) PL533 Lundin Petroleum 20% Exploration Evaluate new 3D seismic and plan for drilling Plan to drill well on Skalle in 2011 Prospective Resources Prospect *MMboe COS % Lavvo (PL438) Skalle (PL438) Rein (PL438) *Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources b 7 3a c 3 GAMMA 2 1a 1b 4 7b 9a 9b 12a PL b PL492 6d c c a PL438 4a 5b 5d 6a 4b 5b 4 6c 6 5a 6b PL a 4 9a 8a SNOEHVIT AREA b 8b 8a 9b 8b 7b 7a c 7 5a 6b a 4b 4 9b a b Barents Sea a a 3 10b a b 4a 9b 2 2 7a b 3 TORNEROSE GOLIATH KM Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner 9 2 6b Norsk Hydro 5 Discovery 6a 4 6 Nucula b a 5b 5a WF

34 34 Norway - Q Acquisition of Talisman s 40% interest in the Krabbe Licence (PL301) Lundin Petroleum 40% interest* Partners: Skeie Energy AS (35%) DONG E&P Norge AS (25%) Mungo BARBARA PHYLLIS Nemo PL148 PL495 Joint development Krabbe-Nemo discoveries NORWAY Gross 2P + contingent resources Nemo PL148 (50% interest) (2P): 22 MMboe Krabbe PL301 (contingent): 20.5 MMboe Total resources: 42.5 MMboe (19.2 MMboe net Lundin) UK PL301 Mime Krabbe Both discoveries successfully delineated WF *Subject to government approval KM 10

35 35 Russia - Lagansky Block 2009 Exploration 2009 Exploration Programme Petrovskaya structure Petrovskaya-1 to be drilled with land rig from a Volga channel island location in third quarter 2009 Prospective Resources: Prospect *MMboe COS % 0 KM 20 Kaspiskoye Lagansky Block Petrovskaya Prospect Laganskaya-1 Northern Caspian Morskaya Discovery Morskaya-1 COC well Viktor Filanovski 600 MMbbls 1.2 TCF Rakushechnoye Field 4.4 TCF Rak-4 Rak-1 Rak-2 Lundin Concession Oil Field Gas Field Prospects Severo- Rakushechny Yuri Korchagin Petrovskaya % *Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources Exploration licence period extension to 2014 Option agreement with Gazprom. If exercised Lundin 50%, Gazprom 50% WF10050a 05.09

36 36 Core Area - South East Asia Exploration THAILAND Country Exploration Licences Block E CAMBODIA VIETNAM Block 06/94 SB303 Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Total Cakalang Baronang SABAH MALAYSIA PM308A & B Jemaja Sokang BRUNEI SARAWAK Borneo SUMATRA Lematang KALIMANTAN SULAWESI WEST PAPUA Rangkas INDONESIA Salawati Basin/ Salawati Island Sareba PAPUA JAVA Lundin Petroleum Licence Direct Joint Study Area AUSTRALIA WF

37 37 Vietnam - Block Lundin Petroleum interest: 33.33% Pearl Energy: 33.33% (operator) Australian Worldwide Exploration: 23.33%* Serica: 10.0%* Ho Chi Minh VIETNAM Lan Tay (1.6 TCF) Lan Do (0.4 TCF) Block 06/94 located in southern Nam Con Son Basin BP s Lan Tay & Lan Do gas fields (2.0 TCF) located in block to the north Premier s Dua & Chim Sao oil fields (75 MMboe) is located in the adjacent block to the west Capacity 700 MMCF/D B C Tuong Vi D 0 KM 5 E First exploration well scheduled for second quarter 2009 Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources Prospect MMboe Tuong Vi 159 Dua Oil Field - 59 MMboe (Premier) Tuong Vi Chim Sao Field - 16 MMboe (Premier ) Oil Field Condensate Field Gas Field Prospect / Lead WF

38 38 Lundin Exit of East Africa Eritrea Africa Oil Corp - Lundin Services BV Sale of Lundin Kenya & Ethiopia subsidaires to AOC Deal closed end of April 2009 Sudan Ethiopia Djibouti Adigala Gulf of Aden Somalia Lundin Block 5B - Relinquishment Government advised by Block 5B JV that partners will not enter the second commitment period 3 wells drilled & 1845 km of 2D seismic acquired Block 5B Block 10A Ogaden-02 Ogaden-06 Ogaden-07 Ogaden-08 Block 9 Somalia Kenya WF

39 39 Exploration and Appraisal Activity 2009 Country Norway Licence Prospect PL338 Luno appraisal % Lundin PL006c Hyme 38 75% Lundin PL304 PL340 Aegis Marihone A/B Gross Likely Drilling Schedule 2009 Unrisked Net MMboe Interest Operator Q1 Q2 Q3 Q % 15% Lundin PL338 Luno extension (3) 50% Lundin PL412 Eiganes % Noreco PL363 Mon % Lundin 37 Marathon Successfully appraised P&A dry PL359 Luno High % Lundin PL476 Frusalen 45 30% Det norske Russia Lagansky Petrovskaya % (2) Lundin Indonesia Salawati Island/Basin 18 (1) - PetroChina Vietnam Block 06/94 Tuong Vi % Pearl Congo Marine XI Viodo appraisal % Soco Marine XI Sendji % Soco Well completed (1) Net Unrisked MMboe (2) Assumed Gazprom execises option (3) Mid Case 240 MMboe WF

40 Exploration Programme Country Licence Prospect Lundin Equity Spud Gross Unrisked MMboe Net Unrisked MMboe CoS Net Risked MMboe Cum Net Risked MMboe Norway PL304 Aegis 50% Q % Norway PL338 Luno Extension 50% Q % Norway PL363 Mon 60% Q % Norway PL359 Luno High 40% Q % Norway PL340 Marihone A/B 15% Q % Norway PL412 Eiganes 30% Q % Norway PL476 Frusalen 30% Q % Russia Lagansky Petrovskaya 50% Q % Vietnam Block 06/94 Tuong Vi / 3 % Q % Congo Marine XI Sendji 18.75% Q % MMboe 211 MMboe Also drilling in Salawati Island/Basin in Indonesia WF

41 41 Financial Presentation - First Three Months 2009 WF