Energy Management: 2011/2012

Transcription

1 Energy Management: 2011/2012 Class# T03 Energy Markets Prof. Miguel Águas

2 ELECTRICITY Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 2 of 53

3 National electricity generation TECHNOLOGY DISAGREGATION (2010) TYPE ENERGIA (TWh) POWER (MW) Reservoirs Run-ofriver Hydric Pumping TOTAL % % % % Wind Cogeneration Special Mini-Hydric Photovoltaics TOTAL % % % % Coal Natural gas CC Thermal Other TOTAL % % % % TOTAL PRODUCTION Import balance TOTAL DEMAND Demand increase: 1,4% /y Power increase: 8,5% /y Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 3 of 53

4 THERMAL POWER PLANTS IN 2010 Energy management National electricity generation - Tap. Outeiro (1,0 GW Natural gas) - Lares (0,9 GW Natural gas) - Pego (0,6 GW Coal) - Pego (0,8 GW Natural gas) - Ribatejo (1,2 GW Natural gas) - Setúbal (0,9 GW Fuel-oil) - Sines (1,2 GW Coal) Source: REN ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 4 of 53

5 WIND ENERGY IN 2010 Energy management National electricity generation Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 5 of 53

6 National electricity consumption Production by technologies Source: Informação mensal do sistema electroprodutor Dez 2010, REN ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 6 of 53

7 National electricity consumption Load diagram on the annual peak demand Tipical Summer profile Tipical Fall profile Source: Dados Técnicos 2010 REN ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 7 of 53

8 National electricity consumption IP MAT AT CONSUMPTION PER LEVEL OF VOLTAGE (2010) BTN MT BTE High (> 1 kv) Low (< 1 kv) Segment Voltage level Annual consumption (GWh/year) Number of consumers Consumption (MWh/c) MAT - Very high voltage > 110 kv % AT - High voltage > 45 kv % 46% 207 0,4% MT - Medium voltage > 1 kv % BTE (>= 41,4 kw) 230 V; P >= 41,4 kw % BTN (< 41,4 kw) 230 V; P < 41,4 kw % 54% ,6% 3,3 Public lighting 230 V % TOTAL CARACTERIZAÇÃO DA PROCURA DE ENERGIA ELÉCTRICA EM ERSE ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 8 of 53

9 Electricity market liberalization Regulated market: Fix tariffs per segment Liberalized market: Tariffs flexibility Consumption profile forecast is important Consumers move to the liberalized market by: - Better price - Better commercial support Regulated market tends to disapear: - UK : several years without regulated tariff - Spain: regulated tariff vanish in Portugal: in 2012 only BTN remains with tariffs Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 9 of 53

10 Electricity market liberalization Electricity cost in the liberalized market The Supplier contracts electricity to be provided in 2 days, and informs the grid operator (REN) on the amount and hourly profile of the electricity that will be injected in the national grid: Injected = Forecasted consumption + Grid losses After the consumption, REN, calculated the effective consumption of the Supplier clients and charge by the deviation. Deviation = Consumption + Grid losses Injection Additionally, the Supplier must pay for the use of the grid. The price components are: Cost = Production + Grid losses + Grid use Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 10 of 53

11 Electricity market liberalization Electricity spot market Source: OMEL ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 11 of 53

12 Electricity market liberalization Current importance of the liberalized market in Portugal 90% 60 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% OMEL price Residential Non residential Nacional 0% Fonte: Resumo informativo Mercado Liberalizado em Dez/08 ERSE ( 0 Jan-10 Fev-10 Mar-10 Abr-10 Mai-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Ago-10 Set-10 Out-10 Nov-10 Dez-10 Jan-11 Fev-11 Mar-11 Abr-11 Mai-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Liberalized market consumption (%) Average electricity price at OMEL ( /MWh) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 12 of 53

13 Regulated tariffs Low voltage tariff structure The bill has 2 components: Energy: The price depends on the Tariff type and Metering cycle Contrated power: Fix amount that depends of physical maximum power installed and Metering type Contract options : Contracted power (in kva) Tariff type: Simples, Bi-horária e Tri-horária Metring cycle (only for Bi-horária and Tri-horária): Daily cycle and weekly cycle Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 13 of 53

14 Regulated tariffs PERIODS IN DAILY AND WEEKLY CYCLE Fonte: ERSE ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 14 of 53

15 Regulated tariffs Source: ERSE ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 15 of 53

16 Regulated tariffs EXAMPLE: An house with tariff simples and Contract power of 6,9 kva presented a month consumption of 200 kwh. a) What will be the bill of that month? b) If the contract was in taridd bi-horária, what should be the % of the consumtion in off peak hours? Constant 10, x 0,1326 = 37 Bi-horária 10, x (0,1448 x (1-P)+ 0,0778 x P) So Bi-horária < Constant if P > 18% In this case, 18% means 36 kwh at off-peak hours, or a constant power of 120 W Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 16 of 53

17 Structure of the regulated tariff for medium, high and very high voltage. The bill has three components: Energy management Tarifas reguladas Fixed term: often negligible Energy: The unit price depends on the Price Option and Cycle Counting Power:: Contracted power: is the biggest Maximum Power of the last 12 months, where the Maximum Power is the maximum power in periods of 15 minutes, in the all month. Power at peak hours: Peak hours consumption / Monthly peak hours considered by ERSE Price Options: Curta, Média ou Longa utilização Cycle counting: Daily cycle, week cycle and week cycle optional Note 1: The prices vary each trimester Nota 2: The counting has 5 periods: ponta, cheia, vazio normal e super vazio Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 17 of 53

18 Tarifas reguladas Fonte: ERSE ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 18 of 53

19 Regulated Tariffs Contracted power Contracted power: is the biggest Maximum Power of the last 12 months, where the Maximum Power is the maximum power in periods of 15 minutes, in the all month Tomada Contratada Jan-08 Fev-08 Mar-08 Abr-08 Mai-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Ago-08 Set-08 Out-08 Nov-08 Dez-08 Jan-09 Fev-09 Mar-09 Abr-09 Mai-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Ago-09 Set-09 Out-09 Nov-09 Dez-09 Power (kw) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 19 of 53

20 FUELS Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 20 of 53

21 National consumption per type of fuel Source: DGEG ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 21 of 53

22 Portuguese natural gas market Grid 49%: By pipeline, entering at Campo Maior (from Argelia). 51%: By GNL, at Sines (from Nigeria) (Jul/09 Jun/10) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 22 of 53

23 Portuguese natural gas market Gasoduto Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 23 of 53

24 Portuguese natural gas market Gas characteristics Natural gas is almost Methane (CH4), depending on it s origin Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 24 of 53

25 Portuguese natural gas market Gas characteristics HHV (High Heat Value) is the main chemical property of NG. It s value, in Portugal, depends of the location (due to IGN) and time along the year Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 25 of 53

26 Portuguese natural gas market Natural gas interface NGI is the interface between NG from Sines and NG from Argelia. It s location is usually in the zone Lisboa-Leiria Fonte: Transgás Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 26 of 53

27 Portuguese natural gas market Consumption profiles Source: Dados técnicos , - REN ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 27 of 53

28 Gas proprieties Energy management Portuguese natural gas market Source: Informação de Actualização Periódica - Jun/2010, - REN ( Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 28 of 53

29 Portuguese natural gas market Consumption (2005) NATIONAL CONSUMPTION 2011 (bcm - US bilion of cm) Combined cycles 2,3 40% Direct clients 1,3 22% Distributors 2,2 38% TOTAL 5,9 DISTRIBUTION (bcm) Distributor 2005 Lisboagás 0,21 0,54 Lusitaniagás 0,15 0,73 Portgás 0,18 0,58 Setgás 0,05 0,17 Others 0,07 0,21 10% TOTAL 0,66 2, % 33% GALP EDP Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 29 of 53

30 Portuguese natural gas market Cogeneration and industry consumption Consumo em 2009 (Nm3) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 30 of 53

31 Portuguese natural gas market Liberalization schedule 01/01/2006: Electricity producers (central stations); 01/01/2008: Clients with consumption > Nm3 (~ 12 GWh/y); 01/01/2009: Clients with consumption > Nm3 (~ kwh/y); 01/01/2010: All clients. Direct clients are consumers with annual consumption bigger than Nm3 (~24 GWh/y) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 31 of 53

32 Portuguese natural gas market Regulated tariff structure of segments with consumption > m3 The natural gas bill has 3 components : Fix term: Depends on level of pressure and consumption dimension Energy: The unitary price depends on level of pressure and consumption dimension Capacidade utilizada: Is the maximum consumption per day (kwh/day) in last 12 months Note 1: Energy prices can change each trimester Note 2: The energy is measured in 2 periods (bi-horária): peak (working days) and offpeak Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 32 of 53

33 Regulated tariff ( ) Clients with consumption > m 3 /y Energy management Portuguese natural gas market Clients with consumption > m 3 /y Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 33 of 53

34 Portuguese natural gas market EXAMPLE: Consider a factory supplied in Média Pressão with month consumption of m3 and option Diária, where 80% in peak hours and a maximum daily consumption of m3. Considering HHV=12 kwh/m3, calculate the natural gas bill. Bill = 815, x x (0,8x0, ,2x0,031673) + 12x20.000x0, Bill = 815, = (0,035 /kwh) Bill = 1% + 91% + 8% (for tariffs the same example has a cost of 0,029 /kwh, -17%) Class# T08: Energy Markets Slide 34 of 53