Okada Akira Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University

Transcription

1 Does an Increase in the Elderly Population Cause a Decrease in CO Emissions from Road Transportation? A Posive Analysis Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve Okada Akira Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo Cy Universy

2 Background Carbon dioxide (CO) emissions from transportation have been increasing around the world. CO emission (million tons) All transportation Road transportation Source: IEA

3 Background Yet, when looking at greenhouse gas data, One can find countries whose CO emissions from transportation have already started decreasing.

4 Background: transion of CO emission in selected countries Index (1990 emission level = 100) Portugal Austria France Japan Germany Source: Uned Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

5 Background The aforementioned countries have a lot in common. developed countries, tightened fuel efficiency through regulatory policy, and modest population densy They are also all classified as aged societies. Aged society: The percentage of over 65 years old is over 14% and less 1% The aging rate during the peak year of CO emissions was 17.1 % (Germany), 18 % (Japan) 16.5 % (Portugal), 17.1 % (France) and 16 % (Austria)

6 Background Few studies focus on the potential contribution of the increasing aging rate to the environmental impacts associated wh road transportation. Rosenbloom (001) and O Fallon and Sullivan (003) They explain the potential based on a descriptive analysis and not on an econometric analysis.

7 Purpose of this research This research empirically analyzes whether there is a relationship between the aging rate and CO emissions per capa from road transportation.

8 Simple analysis using graph What type of relationship does aging rate have wh CO emissions per capa from road transportation? Finding out the relationship using graph

9 Simple analysis using graph: Data 8 countries whose aging rate surpassed 14 percent in 007 were chosen for analysis. Mainly European countries Luxembourg is excluded due to outliers. Data Period Countries Source CO emission per capa IEA GDP per capa Pen World Table v6.3 Aging rate Eurostat, UNPD etc. Index of unleaded gasoline price IEA

10 Simple analysis using graph: Aging rate and CO emission CO emission from road transport (kg CO per capa per year) JPN 4.8 %.6 % AUT FRA UK PRT DEU Aging rate (%) Aging society Aged society

11 Simple analysis using graph: GDP per capa and CO emission Real GDP per capa (US$ in 005) CO emission from road transport (kg CO per capa per year)

12 Lerature review Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) EKC can be visualized by quadratic form. Few studies have analyzed transportation phenomena through the EKC. Cole et al. (1997), Liddle (004) Examine EKC between per capa income and energy use from transportation. No EKC. Liddle contains a demographic factor the share of people aged 0 to 39 as an explanatory variable.

13 Econometric Specification Ordinary CO 3 3 Elder GDP = Elder First order difference CO GDP = 1 Elder 4 Elder GDP Gasprice 5 GDP ε Gasprice 5 (1) () CO: CO emission GDP: GDP : Population Elder: Elderly population Gasprice: Index of gasoline price i: Country number t: Time : Parameter : Difference operator ε: Error term ε Predicted sign 1 > 0, < 0 3 > 0, 4 < 0

14 Econometric Models GDP GDP CO ε = 1 Model 1: Gasprice GDP GDP CO ε = 5 1 Model : Gasprice Elder Elder GDP CO ε = Model 9: Gasprice Elder Elder GDP GDP CO ε = Model 10:

15 Estimation Method Many models have a serial correlation of error terms, their parameters are calculated using an erated Cochrane Orcutt estimation. In Equation, only pooled estimate is calculated.

16 Empirical results: Parameters in Equation Model 1 Model Model 9 Model 10 GDP/ 91.61** 89.9** 39.88* 76.81** (GDP/) 0.96** 0.86** 0.69* Elder/ 85.19** 53.43** (Elder/) 8.30** 7.44** Gasprice.19**.08** 1.97** ˆρ * R D.W Turning Point Countries (Observations) $47,71 $5, % 8 (960) 18 (49) 18 (479) $55, % 18 (479) ˆρ 1 : coefficient of AR(1); *: Exceeds the 5 percent threshold; **: Exceeds the 1 percent threshold.

17 Conclusions The analysis verifies an inverted U relationship between CO emissions per capa and aging rate. The analysis validates existing lerature on no EKC relationship between CO emission per capa and GDP per capa.

18 Conclusions Research Limations The equations do not include a term for fuel efficiency etc. The effect of demographic changes cannot be ignored during the proposal of transportation policies for the environment, or during the forecast of future CO emissions from transportation.

19 Thank you for your kind attention

20 Background: Mean per capa energy consumption by age of householder Million Btu Transportation Source: O Neill and Chen (00) Age of householder 0

21 Background: Travel behavior of the elderly Travel behavior of the elderly is different fewer trips per day, fewer total kilometers, and shorter travel times than younger. Several studies validate the age is an important factor to explain trip generation and travel length. Schmöcker et al. (005), Páez et al. (007), and Mercado and Páez (009) Characteristics of car ownership of the elderly are different from those of other people. Dargay (007) found a pattern: car ownership increases until householder become age of 50s, and afterward decreases.

22 Car travel, in kilometres per week, by cohort Car ownership by cohort Source: Dargay (007)