Revenue Estimating Conference Revenues to State Transportation Trust Fund Forecast. August 3, 2018

Transcription

1 Revenue Estimating Conference Revenues to State Transportation Trust Fund Forecast August 3, 2018 Table 1 Revenue Summary Previous Forecast Post Session 2018 Highway Fuel Sales Tax SCETS Tax Off-Highway Fuel Sales Tax Aviation Fuel Tax Fuel Use Tax and Fees Natural Gas Fuel Tax MVL -Related Amount (From HSMV Conference) Motor Vehicle Licenses Initial Registration Fee Title Fees Motor Vehicle Compliance Penalties Subtotal Rental Car Surcharge Local Option Distribution Total New Forecast August 3, 2018 Highway Fuel Sales Tax SCETS Tax Off-Highway Fuel Sales Tax Aviation Fuel Tax Fuel Use Tax and Fees Natural Gas Fuel Tax MVL -Related Amount (From HSMV Conference) Motor Vehicle Licenses Initial Registration Fee Title Fees Motor Vehicle Compliance Penalties Subtotal Rental Car Surcharge Local Option Distribution Total Difference Cumulative Difference Page 1

2 Table 2 Assumptions CPI, All Items, Local Government Fiscal Year Post Session % Change 1.85% 1.68% 2.72% 2.71% 2.41% 2.42% 2.47% 2.47% 2.48% 1.86% August 3, % Change 2.47% 2.18% 2.31% 2.18% 2.30% 2.42% 2.47% 2.46% 2.37% 2.28% 2.26% Sales Tax, All Fuel, Calendar Year Post Session August 3, Sales Tax, All Fuel, Fiscal Year Average Post Session August 3, SCETS Tax Rate, Motor Fuel, Fiscal Year Average Post Session August 3, SCETS Tax Rate, Special Fuel, Fiscal Year Average Post Session August 3, Florida Pump Price Post Session % Change 8.84% -5.61% 7.94% 10.89% 5.45% 5.18% 4.47% 3.45% 2.81% 2.85% August 3, % Change 12.05% 7.66% 1.16% -1.34% -0.17% 1.40% 2.08% 3.09% 3.42% 2.44% 2.54% Fleet Miles Per Gallon Post Session August 3, Real Price Per Mile Post Session % Change 4.88% -8.75% 3.41% 5.83% 1.05% 0.75% -0.03% -1.06% -1.76% -1.77% August 3, % Change 7.60% 3.30% -2.86% -5.25% -4.17% -2.86% -2.32% -1.42% -1.10% -1.99% -1.83% Aviation Fuel Tax Per Gallon Post Session August 3, State and Local Natural Gas Fuel Tax Rate, Fiscal Year Average Post Session August 3, Page 2

3 Table 3 Fuel Consumption Motor Fuel (Millions of Gallons) Post Session % Change 1.50% 1.48% 1.45% 1.20% 1.15% 1.12% 1.09% 1.09% 1.09% 1.09% August 3, % Change 0.96% 1.22% 0.99% 0.61% 0.55% 0.42% 0.32% 0.15% 0.02% -0.02% -0.02% Diesel Fuel (Millions of Gallons) Post Session % Change 5.47% 1.13% 1.28% 2.03% 1.81% 1.59% 1.31% 1.12% 1.14% 1.11% August 3, % Change 5.15% 1.26% 1.36% 1.70% 1.60% 1.26% 1.20% 1.12% 1.09% 1.05% 1.07% Total Highway Fuel (Millions of Gallons) Post Session % Change 2.12% 1.42% 1.42% 1.34% 1.26% 1.20% 1.13% 1.09% 1.10% 1.09% August 3, % Change 1.61% 1.22% 1.05% 0.79% 0.72% 0.56% 0.46% 0.32% 0.20% 0.16% 0.17% Aviation Fuel (Millions of Gallons) Post Session % Change -1.27% 2.06% 38.78% 7.66% 1.75% 1.70% 1.68% 1.68% 1.68% 1.62% August 3, % Change 4.15% 1.58% 37.89% 4.15% 1.15% 1.12% 1.10% 1.09% 1.08% 1.05% 1.05% Page 3

4 Table 4 Highway Fuel Sales Tax Revenues ($ Millions) Gross Collections Post Session August 3, Refunds Post Session August 3, DOR Administration Post Session August 3, Transfer to Invasive Plant Control Trust Fund Post Session August 3, Transfer to State Game Trust Fund Post Session August 3, % Transfer to Agriculture Emergency Trust Fund Post Session August 3, Transfer to Marine Resources Conservation Trust Fund Post Session August 3, Net Transfer to STTF Post Session August 3, Page 4

5 Table 5 SCETS Tax Revenues ($ Millions) Gross Collections Post Session August 3, Refunds Post Session August 3, DOR Administration Post Session August 3, % Transfer to Agriculture Emergency Trust Fund Post Session August 3, Net Transfer to STTF Post Session August 3, Page 5

6 Table 6 Other Fuel Tax Revenues ($ Millions) Off Highway Fuel Gross Collections and STTF Post Session % Change 4.12% 2.61% 6.78% 8.73% 5.11% 4.17% 3.33% 2.58% 1.89% 3.09% August 3, % Change 20.41% 4.51% 2.16% 0.00% 0.70% 2.10% 2.74% 3.33% 4.52% 2.47% 3.61% Aviation Fuel Gross Collections Post Session August 3, Refunds Post Session August 3, DOR Administration Post Session August 3, GR Service Charge Post Session August 3, Net Transfer to STTF Post Session August 3, Page 6

7 Table 7 Special Fuel Use Tax and Fees Beginning Balance ($ Millions) Registrations and Permits Issued Registrations 51,685 52,313 52,831 53,155 53,445 53,671 53,842 53,924 53,937 53,927 53,918 Emergency and Trip Permits 9,055 9,165 9,256 9,313 9,363 9,403 9,433 9,447 9,450 9,448 9,446 Registrations and Permits Collections ($ Millions) Registration Fees Emergency and Trip Fees Total Fees and Permits Use Tax Collections ($ Millions) Use Tax Refunds and Reserve Net Use Tax Total Revenue Other Jurisdictions Ending Fund Balance Net to be Distributed Administrative Costs, net of GR Service Charge Distributions S.T.T.F Constitutional Gas Tax (2 cents) County Gas Tax (1 cent) Municipal Gas Tax (1 cent) Local Option Tax (1-to-5 cents and 1-to-6 cent) Pollutants Tax General Rev Service Charge Page 7

8 Table 8 $2.00 Rental Car Fees Total Collections ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Administrative Fees ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, GR Service Charges ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Net to Be Distributed ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Tourism Promotion Trust Fund ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Florida International Trade & Promotion TF ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, STTF ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Page 8

9 Table 9 Local Option Taxes Subject to Service Charges Motor Fuel Gallons (Thousands) Post Session August 3, Diesel Fuel Gallons (Thousands) Post Session August 3, Local Tax Rate Subject to Allocation to STTF (Cents per Gallon) Post Session August 3, Motor Fuel Tax Rate Subject to GR Service Charge (Cents per Gallon) Post Session August 3, Local Option Service Charge Revenue to STTF ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Local Option Service Charge Revenue to GR ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Note: Local Option Fuel Taxes Include Local Option Fuel Tax ( 1 to 6 Cents), Local Option Motor Fuel Tax (1 to 5 Cents), and Ninth Cent Fuel Tax. Page 9

10 Table 10 Fuel Tax Distributions to Local Government ($ Millions) Highway Fuel Tax Constitutional Fuel Tax (2 Cents) County Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Municipal Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Fuel Use Tax and Fees Constitutional Fuel Tax (2 Cents) County Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Municipal Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Natural Gas Fuel Tax Constitutional Fuel Tax (2 Cents) County Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Municipal Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Total Fuel Taxes Constitutional Fuel Tax (2 Cents) County Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Municipal Fuel Tax (1 Cent) Note: Dollar figures shown are net of service charges, administrative costs, refunds and dealer allowances Page 10

11 Table 11 Pollutants Tax Coastal Protections Post Session % Change 2.21% 1.67% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.56% 1.54% 1.52% 1.49% 1.47% August 3, % Change 4.60% 0.98% 1.61% 1.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Water Quality Post Session % Change 2.12% 1.22% 1.81% 1.78% 1.16% 1.15% 1.14% 1.12% 1.11% 1.10% August 3, % Change 6.10% 1.53% 1.73% 1.14% 0.56% 0.56% 0.56% 0.55% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% Lead Acid Battery Fee Post Session % Change 2.67% 0.87% 1.72% 1.69% 1.67% 1.64% 0.81% 0.80% 0.79% 0.79% August 3, % Change 4.45% 2.56% 1.67% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.56% 0.77% 0.76% 0.76% 0.75% Inland Protection Post Session % Change 1.90% 1.43% 1.41% 1.34% 1.24% 1.18% 1.12% 1.11% 1.10% 1.09% Motor Fuel Related Diesel Fuel Related Aviation Fuel Related Other August 3, % Change 4.52% 1.22% 1.07% 0.79% 0.70% 0.56% 0.47% 0.30% 0.21% 0.17% 0.17% Motor Fuel Related Diesel Fuel Related Aviation Fuel Related Other Total Collections Post Session % Change 1.96% 1.40% 1.45% 1.40% 1.26% 1.21% 1.12% 1.11% 1.09% 1.08% August 3, % Change 4.63% 1.30% 1.15% 0.87% 0.71% 0.60% 0.52% 0.33% 0.26% 0.18% 0.18% Note: Distribution net of refunds, GR Service Charge and Administrative Costs. Collection amounts are based on the projected gallonage of motor fuel, diesel and aviation fuel, with the exception of the Lead Acid Battery Fee which is calculated using the Automobile Forecast from the Highway Safety Motor Vehicle Conference. Page 11

12 Table 12 Natural Gas Fuel Natural Gas Fuel Taxable Units (Millions) Post Session % Change % 1.14% 1.11% August 3, % Change % 1.09% 1.05% 1.07% Natural Gas Fuel Gross Collections ($ Millions) Post Session August 3, Local Alt. Fuel Clearing Fund Post Session August 3, State Alt. Fuel Clearing Fund Post Session 2018 Total Refunds, Tax Allowance, and GR Service Charge Distributions ot Local Government State Transportation Trust Fund August 3, 2018 Total Refunds, Tax Allowance, and GR Service Charge Distributions to Local Government State Transportation Trust Fund Page 12