Auto Insurers and Highway Safety in a Green and Challenged Economy

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1 Auto Insurers and Highway Safety in a Green and Challenged Economy Insurance Council of Texas Mid-Year Property and Casualty Insurance Symposium Austin, Texas July 23, 2009 Adrian Lund, Ph.D., President

2 The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries, and property damage from crashes on the nation's highways. The Highway Loss Data Institute, founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.

3 Where are we? Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center Washington, DC IIHS & HLDI headquarters VRC Virginia

4 IIHS vehicle research center Outside car companies, few facilities in the world are equipped to conduct the range of crash tests and other research the Vehicle Research Center can accommodate.

5 Overview 2006 Adventures in highway safety: Insurers preventing harm 2009 The adventure continues: auto insurers and highway safety in a green and challenged economy

6 Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled ,000 55,000 deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 80 50,000 motor vehicle deaths 60 45,000 42, ,000 35,000 30, per billion 37, per billion

8 Fatality risk in real-world crashes Percent driver fatality risk reduction in head-on crashes, by IIHS crash test rating 0 The risk of death is much lower in vehicles rated good, based on IIHS tests, compared with vehicles rated poor % lower fatality risk in vehicles rated good than in vehicles rated poor 33% lower fatality risk in vehicles rated acceptable or marginal than in vehicles rated poor

10 Fatality risk in side impacts Estimated percent reduction in driver fatality risks in vehicles with side airbags, IIHS research shows side airbags save lives. In real-world side impacts, driver fatality risk is 37% lower in cars and 52% lower in SUVs with side airbags with head protection, compared with similar vehicles without this protection cars SUVs -60 torso only head protection + torso

11 Good vs. poor performance of head restraints Toyota Corolla G neck tension 574 N neck shear force 32 N Chrysler PT Cruiser P neck tension 918 N neck shear force 342 N

12 Percent of rear-struck drivers with neck injury claims Adjusted for covariates 20 no difference -15% -8% 10 0 good acceptable marginal poor

13 Percent of rear-struck drivers with long-term neck injury Adjusted for covariates 8-35% -24% -35% 4 0 good acceptable marginal poor

14 Electronic stability control: A key part of TOP SAFETY PICK

15 What is Electronic Stability Control (ESC)? ESC is an extension of ABS, which has speed sensors and independent braking for each wheel. Additional sensors monitor how well a vehicle is responding to a driver s input.

16 Avoiding crashes with electronic stability control

17 Effects on crash risk Percent change in crash rates for vehicles with standard ESC vs. optional or no ESC, updated April all crashes fatal injury all crashes multiple-vehicle single-vehicle -80

18 TOP SAFETY PICK 2007 awards Initial group of winners, November 2006 Large cars Audi A6 manufactured in Dec or later Midsize cars Audi A4 Saab 9-3 Subaru Legacy with optional electronic stability control Luxury SUVs Mercedes M class Volvo XC90 Midsize SUVs Acura RDX Honda Pilot Subaru B9 Tribeca Minivans Hyundai Entourage Kia Sedona Small SUVs Honda CR-V Subaru Forester with optional electronic stability control

2009 TOP SAFETY PICK award winners Large cars Small cars Honda Pilot Acura RL Audi A6 Cadillac CTS Ford Taurus Hyundai Genesis 4-door models built after November 2008 Lincoln MKS Mercury Sable Toyota

19 2009 TOP SAFETY PICK award winners Large cars Small cars Honda Pilot Acura RL Audi A6 Cadillac CTS Ford Taurus Hyundai Genesis 4-door models built after November 2008 Lincoln MKS Mercury Sable Toyota Avalon Volvo S80 Midsize cars Acura TL Acura TSX Audi A3 Audi A4 BMW 3 series 4-door models Ford Fusion with optional ESC Honda Accord 4-door models Mercedes C class Mercury Milan with optional ESC Saab 9-3 Subaru Legacy Volkswagen Jetta Volkswagen Passat Midsize convertibles Saab 9-3 Volkswagen Eos Volvo C70 Honda Civic 4-door models with optional ESC, except Si models Mitsubishi Lancer with optional ESC Scion xb Subaru Impreza with optional ESC Toyota Corolla Volkswagen Rabbit 4-door models Minicar Honda Fit with optional ESC Minivans Honda Odyssey Hyundai Entourage Kia Sedona Large SUVs Audi Q7 Buick Enclave Chevrolet Traverse GM Acadia Saturn Outlook Midsize SUVs Acura MDX Acura RDX BMW X3 BMW X5 Ford Edge Ford Flex Ford Taurus X Hyundai Santa Fe Hyundai Veracruz Infiniti EX35 Lincoln MKX Mercedes M class Nissan Murano Saturn VUE Subaru Tribeca Toyota FJ Cruiser Toyota Highlander Volvo XC90 Small SUVs Ford Escape Honda CR-V Honda Element Mazda Tribute Mercury Mariner Mitsubishi Oulander Nissan Rogue Subaru Forester Toyota RAV4 Volkswagen Tiguan Large pickups Ford F-150 Honda Ridgeline Toyota Tundra Small pickups Toyota Tacoma

20 The adventure continues

21 Rollover and integrity of the roof About 10,000 deaths per year in rollover crashes Estimated 1,000+ deaths in 1-3-year-old vehicles, even when all vehicles have ESC

22 Roof strength in rollovers

23 rating Volkswagen Tiguan Subaru Forester Honda Element Jeep Patriot Suzuki Grand Vitara 2009 small SUVs by roof strength rating Chevrolet Equinox Pontiac Torrent Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Mitsubishi Outlander Honda CR-V Ford Escape Mazda Tribute Mercury Mariner Kia Sportage Hyundai Tucson

24 Institute rating system based on strength-to-weight ratio rating SWR Good > 4.00 Acceptable Marginal Poor < 2.50

Roof SWR within 127 mm Estimated effect of strength increases 5.0 4.5 4.

5 M 24% risk reduction Future US regulatory minimum P 2.0 1.

25 Roof SWR within 127 mm Estimated effect of strength increases G 50% risk reduction 34% risk reduction 24% risk reduction 3.5 A M 24% risk reduction Future US regulatory minimum P Current US regulatory minimum 1.0 Minimum SWR to Marginal Minimum SWR to Good Marginal to Good 2012 minimum SWR to Good

26 New challenges for our adventures in highway safety: More dangerous roads

27 Driver death rates per registered vehicle Actual vs. hypothetical, 1985 fleet 200 actual hypothetical year

28 Maximum posted speed limits in United States 2009 maximum posted limited access (number of states) other roads (number of states) 80 mph mph mph mph mph mph or less 0 28

29 New challenges for our adventures in highway safety: Less protective vehicles

30 Lincoln Town Car and Smart ForTwo To-scale comparison

33 Barrier test results vs. car-to-car results Honda Fit Honda Accord Smart Fortwo C class Toyota Yaris Toyota Camry frontal crashworthiness rating G G G G G G rating in mini vs. midsize crash test P G P G P A

34 Fatality rates in cars by vehicle size Per million registrations, then (1989) vs. now (2007) cars pickups SUVs mini small midsize large very large small large very large small midsize large very large

struck overturn tree possibly movable object

35 Not all single-vehicle crashes involve immovable objects Fatal single-vehicle crashes by object struck overturn tree possibly movable object likely immovable object fire/explosion immersion other

36 Company Chairman Ratan Tata announces newly launched Tata Nano Wall Street Journal, January 9, 2008 New York Times, January 8, 2008

37 3-wheel Aptera aspires to carpool lane USA Today, January 11, 2008

38 Two-seater targeting city driving to hit 35 mph GM/Segway P.U.M.A. The Detroit News,

39 Low-speed electric vehicles

40 States permitting low-speed vehicles on some roads July 2009

41 Japanese minitrucks

42 States with laws allowing minitrucks on roads July 2009

44 Motorcyclist deaths By age, ,000 3, ,000 1,

45 How do we protect these increasingly vulnerable populations of road users? Automakers and suppliers have taken the lead in developing new crash avoidance features.

46 Technologies available on 2008 vehicles sold in United States number of makes forward collision warning with automatic braking 3 brake assist 9 lane departure warning 6 blind spot detection 6 adaptive headlights 15

48 Emergency brake assist Comparison of stopping distances at various speeds EBA 30 mph 6.6 ft EBA 50 mph 18.1 ft EBA 70 mph When sensors detect panic braking, system boosts braking power to reduce stopping distance 31.2 ft

49 Blind spot warning/detection Radar or digital cameras detect whether vehicles are moving within blind spot zones night or day and warn drivers

51 Infiniti lane departure systems warning prevention

53 Status Report Special issue on crash avoidance features April 17, 2008

54 Maximum crashes potentially preventable By type of system all fatal forward collision warning 2,268,000 7,166 brake assist 417,000 3,079 lane departure warning 483,000 10,345 blind spot detection 457, adaptive headlights 143,000 2,553 total unique crashes 3,435,000 20,777

55 Crashes potentially preventable by 5 technologies annual fatal all crashes 5,991,000 34,591 crashes relevant to 5 technologies 3,435,000 20,777 ESC s estimated effectiveness 9,000 net potential of 5 technologies 11,777

56 Activities at IIHS Applicability, acceptability, effectiveness, & offsetting behavior We estimated maximum benefits of several technologies in 2008 Revising to be more consistent with actual realization of technology In cooperation with 2 automakers, we are conducting surveys of owners to assess their acceptance of the new technologies Using insurance data to track effects of technology on collision and injury claims experience This will give overall picture of crashes but will be dominated by minor crashes so reductions in serious injuries could be masked Will take longer to evaluate serious injuries or deaths Offsetting behavior will be long-term and potentially hard to identify Main implication would be low effectiveness, declining over time

57 What we know so far Survey of Volvo owners indicates generally good acceptance of warnings for blind spot, forward collision, and lane departure as well as adaptive headlamps HLDI data for a variety of vehicles indicate mixed results: Some reductions in cost of collision and PDL, especially for blind spot detection Some systems appear to increase severity of claims, probably because of expensive sensors in vulnerable locations All findings preliminary due to statistical imprecision

59 < $501 $501 to $1,000 $1,001 to $1,500 $1,501 to $2,000 $2,001 to $2,500 $2,501 to $3,000 $3,001 to $3,500 $3,501 to $4,000 $4,001 to $4,500 $4,501 to $5,000 $5,001 to $5,500 $5,501 to $6,000 $6,001 to $6,500 $6,501 to $7,000 $7,001 to $7,500 $7,501 to $8,000 $8,001 to $8,500 $8,501 to $9,000 $9,001 to $9,500 $9,501 to $10,000 $10,001 to $10,500 $10,501 to $11,000 $11,001 to $11,500 $11,501 to $12,000 $12,001 to $12,500 $12,501 to $13,000 $13,001 to $13,500 $13,501 to $14,000 $14,001 to $14,500 $14,501 to $15,000 $15,001 to $15,500 $15,501 to $16,000 $16,001 to $16,500 $16,501 to $17,000 $17,001 to $17,500 $17,501 to $18,000 $18,001 to $18,500 $18,501 to $19,000 $19,001 to $19,500 $19,501 to $20,000 > $20,000 Collision claim size distribution for cars Model years in calendar years % 12% 8% 4% 0%

60 < $501 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 $10,000 $10,500 $11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500 $16,000 $16,500 $17,000 $17,500 $18,000 $18,500 $19,000 $19,500 $20,000 > $20,000 Collision cumulative claim size distribution for cars Model years in calendar years % 80% 50 th percentile 60% 40% 20% 0%

61 Other strategies

62 Reducing losses from motor vehicle crashes People, vehicle, and environmental factors People Changing attitudes and behavior Vehicles Changing vehicles to protect occupants or elicit safer behavior Environment Engineering roads to reduce likelihood and severity of crashes and improving access to rapid treatment

63 Graduated licensing

64 Strength of graduated licensing programs July 2009 WA OR CA NV ID UT AZ MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS MI IN OH KY TN AL GA VT NY PA WV VA NC SC NH ME MA NJ RI CT DE MD DC AK FL 33 + DC good 10 fair HI 7 marginal 0 poor

65 Percent change in fatal crashes by graduated licensing law rating year-old population good fair marginal

66 Percent reduction in collision claim frequencies by graduated licensing law rating year-old drivers good fair marginal

67 In-vehicle monitoring of teenage drivers

68 Website with secure login, personal ID, and password

69 Percent change in risk of not using a belt compared with baseline Alert-then-web group, with report card early treatment late treatment post treatment

70 Percent change in risk of sudden brake/acceleration compared with baseline Alert-then-web group, with report card early treatment late treatment post treatment

71 Percent change in risk of exceeding speed limit by more than 10 mph compared with baseline Alert-then-web group, with report card early treatment late treatment post treatment

72 Roundabouts

73 Roundabouts are safer and more efficient

74 If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts Approximately 70,000 crashes prevented annually including: 450 fatal crashes 45,000 injury crashes Vehicle delays reduced by about 800 million hours Fuel consumption reduced by more than 500 million gallons

75 Some people complain that roundabouts are too complex, but compared to what?! Wide streets encourage high speeds and require long crossing distances for pedestrians

76 Haddon matrix Recognizing opportunities to make a difference crash phase changes in before during after graduated licensing belt use alcohol people impaired driving laws helmets licensing laws lane departure warning airbags OnStar vehicles daytime running lights vehicle structure fuel system integrity electronic stability control bumpers environment roundabouts red light cameras speed cameras roundabouts breakaway poles speed cameras emergency medical sservices trouble spot treatment

77 50years Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway

Highway Safety Countermeasures

Highway Safety Countermeasures National Conference of State Legislatures May 14, 2009 Stephen Oesch Intersections Intersection crashes More than 2.4 million in 2007 5 crashes per minute 1 serious injury