3/4/2011 WIRELESS ELECTRICITY WITRICITY. ENGM274 Program and Project Management Moses Morjain

Transcription

1 3/4/2011 WITRICITY WIRELESS ELECTRICITY ENGM274 Program and Project Management Moses Morjain

2 1. Executive Report This project is an analysis of the feasibility and the costs it would take to manufacture 50,000 wireless electricity units. This is an initial feasibility study to manufacture two styles of evanescent couple, resonant energy transfer systems for domestic or business use. The system produces a 7 meter power transmission area with up to three 100 watt receivers within the coverage area. These devices will be sold with one transmitter and three receivers. We were able to design two different models for use of this technology, one contained in a light source and another within a clock. All of this technology is based on WiTricity technology. Witricity power sources capture devices are designed for magnetic resonators that transfer power over large distances over a magnetic field. Overall we found with 17 workers it would be feasible to create 50,000 units within 12 weeks of work which would end up at selling each unit at a wholesale cost of $121, which is lower than the average price of one set. i P a g e

3 Table of Contents 1. Executive Report... i Section 1. Materials and Shipping... 1 Section 2. Workers... 3 Section 3. Production Phase Cost... 5 Section 4. Project Time... 8 Section 5. Risk Consequences Section 6. Pert Diagramming Section 7. Project Crashing Section 8. Issues Section 9. References Section 10. Appendices List of Figures Figure 1: Materials... 1 Figure 2: Suppliers for materials... 2 Figure 3: Learning curves for each task... 3 Figure 4: Learning curves for people and tasks... 4 Figure 5: Total labor cost... 5 Figure 6: Total materials cost... 6 Figure 7: Cost of litz wire... 6 Figure 8: Litz wire savings... 7 Figure 9: Overall cost and wholesale cost... 7 Figure 10: Task schedule... 8 Figure 11: Scheduling sheet... 9 Figure 12: AOA diagram Figure 13: Production line facility Figure 14: Pert diagram for each activity Figure 15: Critical path Figure 16: Crash chart Figure 17: Crashing of paths ii P a g e

4 Section 1. Materials and Shipping 1.1 Materials Figure 1: Materials Materials Quanitity Litz wire 15 cm 200,000 ft Litz wire 30 cm 200,000 ft Metal Halide Reactor Core 50,000 Clock Polymer Case 25,000 Overhead ceiling fixture 25,000 Two-piece polymer case 150,000 Capacitor 200,000 We are going to need 200,000 Ft. of 15 cm litz wire and 200,000 Ft. of 30 cm litz wire. The 200,000 Ft. is an estimation and approximation from the bifilar coils, since the bilfilar coils are based on turns it is approximated by the diameter of the coil. The capacitor is also separate from the litz wire so it will also have to be purchased. 1.2 Shipping and storage All of the shipping costs incurred are based on whole sale shipping costs which depend on distributors. For the litz wire shipping is charged by pounds, and for the rest of the materials it is charged by quantity. The rest of our materials will be purchased at wholesale price which is about ¼ of the price of retail. Once we receive shipments we will need to store the shipment boxes in our production facility, based on the estimated time of shipment we should have enough room for storage within in the facility. Most of the materials are small parts which will be easier to store. Overall shipment will take about a week; most suppliers have a shipment time of 3-5 business days. All shipping will come from the United States, just to make sure we get our materials on time. Once we get the critical materials we can start training and production right after we receive most of the critical components and materials which is about a week. 1 P a g e

5 1.3 Suppliers Materials Litz wire 15 cm Litz wire 30 cm Metal Halide Reactor Core Clock Polymer Case Overhead ceiling fixture Two-piece polymer case Capacitor Figure 2: Suppliers for materials Supplier Surplussales.com Surplussales.com Venture lighting corporation amclocks.com lampdeals.com GSH industries weisd.com All of the critical component materials will need to be shipped from different manufacturers. Currently we will be getting our litz wire from which can take about 3-5 business days to ship to our facilities. However, as a backup we can also order from if there are any issues from the previous company. The rest of the components will be bought at a wholesale price from wholesale companies. Each item will be shipped from a different company to ensure that we are able to get our materials on time. All of these companies are located in the United States to ensure that we can get our materials in a timely manner. 2 P a g e

6 Section 2. Workers 2.1 Learning curves Learning curve for transmitter Nth Unit Effort Cumulative Average % learning curve Including 80% efficicency Cumulative Total minutes Learning Curve for receiver Nth Unit Effort Cumulative Average Cumulative Total minutes Learning Curve for Allignment Nth Unit Effort Cumulative Average Cumulative Total minutes Learning Curve for Packaging Nth Unit Effort Cumulative Average Cumulative Total minutes Figure 3: Learning curves for each task Cumulative minutes Cumulative weeks Rounded weeks The learning curve for each of the processes is calculated by the number of minutes needed to assemble the first object, and we are assuming all full time workers have a learning curve of 90%. There will need to be 50,000 systems created and based on that we calculated how much it would take for one person to do all 50,000 in a regular 40 hour work week. Each task is divided by 2400 since which will be the total minutes it would take for one person to finish that task in a cumulative time. However even though the person is working 40 hours a week, each worker has an 80% efficiency which makes the work week 1920 minutes. All of these calculations are based on the learning curve formulas below: b log % ln % TN T 1 N b log 2 ln 2 3 P a g e

7 2.2 Assignment of workers People in Worker Duty weeks Transmitters *Receivers * Allignment * Packaging * 1 Assembly Assembly Assembly Assembly Assembly Testing Testing Testing Testing Testing Testing Testing Testing Packaging Packaging Packaing/Assembly 16 Supervisor Testing Supervisor Figure 4: Learning curves for people and tasks We will have 17 workers working concurrently on this project. Based on the learning curve we will assign each worker to different tasks. Using the learning curve data for each task we were then able to determine the number of weeks it would take for a team of 17 people to complete a task. The assembly of receivers would take longer since more need to be created so we decided to assign 3 people to the assembly of receivers and 2 for the assembly of transmitters. The testing phase will take longer than assembly and would need more people so 8 people will be assigned to that task. Packaging will require two people. Supervisors will maintain control in the facility and make sure assembly, packaging and testing are done properly, they will not be in charge of any of the tasks since their role is to overlook the teams. Based on the Hawthorne effect results have shown that people perform better while being watched. This will help the quality of our products and help with the overall phases. However we will only need two supervisors since the assembly supervisor will also be able to overlook the assembly. Testing is crucial; this is why we need one dedicated person for testing. 2.3 Part time workers There will be no need to hire part time workers. Even though they run cheaper, they can only produce at 50% efficiency which would take too long for this project. They would have an equivalency of working about 1200 hours on the project, and it would be tough 4 P a g e

8 to tell how well their work would be done since there is no learning curve on the part timers. Section 3. Production Phase Cost 3.1 Labor cost Worker Full time pay (per Salary Personnel fee Duty hour base labor cost) (Plus 1 week training) (plus training) Supervisor Per week 1 Assembly $ $4, $5, $ Assembly $ $4, $5, $ Assembly $ $4, $5, $ Assembly $ $4, $5, $ Assembly $ $4, $5, $ Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Testing $ $5, $6, $1, Packaging $ $1, $2, $ Packaging $ $1, $2, $ Packaging/Assembly Supervisor $ $1, $2, $2, $ Testing Supervisor $ $5, $6, $7, $1, per week $13, Overall labor cost $ 92, Figure 5: Total labor cost The labor cost is found by the number of weeks converted to hours. There are 2400 hours in a 40 hour work week, so if a task took 6 weeks we multiplied 6 to 2400 to get the estimated time and then multiplied it by the base labor cost. There was 29% personnel fee assessed for full time employee insurance/benefits. Supervisors get a 10% increase in salary due to their level in the project. The overall labor cost came to 92, with benefits. 5 P a g e

9 3.2 Materials Cost Materials Cost Materials Qty Cost Total Shipping Cost ($1.65) 30 cm diameter 50 turn bifilar coils 300,000 $ 4.30 $ 1,290, $ 495, cm diameter 100 turn bifilar coils 1,000,000 $ 4.00 $ 4,000, $ 1,650, Metal Halide Reactor Core 50,000 $ $ 900, $ 82, Clock Polymer Case 25,000 $ 5.00 $ 125, $ 41, Overhead ceiling fixture 25,000 $ 5.00 $ 125, $ 41, Two-piece polymer case 150,000 $ 3.10 $ 465, $ 247, Capacitor 200,000 $ 0.15 $ 30, $ 330, Materials Cost with bifilar $ 6,935, $ 2,887, Plus shipping $ 9,822, Figure 6: Total materials cost This cost estimation is based on the material list that was given from the previous project manager. This material list includes using a 30 cm diameter bifilar coil and a 15 cm turn bifilar coil. We found that this was too expensive and would cost us more in total costs. Instead of using bifilar coils we need to use litz wire. ft Litz wire 200,000 at $4 foot $390, ,000 at $4 foot $390, Cost $ 1,600, Shipping cost $780, Cost with litz $ 3,245, Litz with shipping $4,025, Figure 7: Cost of litz wire The pricing of litz wire is cheaper and would require less labor and would be easier to assemble since all it would need is a soldering and a capacitor at the end. Litz wire is charged at around $4 dollars a foot. A good estimation for the amount of litz wire we need would be about 200,000 ft. for 50,000 produced systems. There will be two types of litz wire needed, a 30 cm diameter for the transmitter and a 15 cm diameter for the receiver. 6 P a g e

10 Litz saves $ 3,690, Litz with shipping saves $ 5,797, Figure 8: Litz wire savings Litz wire overall saves us about 3,690,000 from what the bifilar coils would. Also with shipping, litz wire would save us about $5,797, Total cost Contingency $ 82, % profit $ 205, Materials and labor $ 4,117, Total production cost (including overhead) $ 6,053, Wholesale cost $ Figure 9: Overall cost and wholesale cost The contingency is 2% of the cost of the cost of materials and labor. We will need a contingency fee just in case something goes wrong with the project. We would make about $ 205, on 5% profit. The total production cost including overhead will cost us about 6 million dollars. For 50,000 units the wholesale cost will be about $121 which is about $40 cheaper than the target cost ($160) for each set. We can make the wholesale cost a lot cheaper but we need to keep in mind the quality of our product and maintain a good schedule for our workers in order to ensure we put out a good product. 7 P a g e

11 Section 4. Project Time 4.1 Schedule Task Name Duration Predecessors Critical Start Finish Ordering and receipt of all production materials 1 wk Yes Thu 3/3/11 Wed 3/9/11 Reassignment and training of full-time workers 1 wk 1 No Thu 3/10/11 Assembly line setup 2 wks 1 Yes Thu 3/10/11 Assembly of components Assembly of transmitters 6 wks Yes Thu 3/24/11 6 wks 3,1,2 Yes Thu 3/24/11 Wed 3/16/11 Wed 3/23/11 Wed 5/4/11 Wed 5/4/11 Assembly of receivers 2 wks 3,1,2 No Sun 4/3/11 Thu 4/14/11 Alignment of Wed 3 wks 3,1,2 No components/final testing 4/6/11 Tue 4/26/11 Packaging 3 wks 7,5,6 Yes Thu 5/5/11 Wed 5/25/11 Figure 10: Task schedule The whole process takes about 12 weeks with overlapping tasks. The project has an estimated complete date time for 5/25/11. The ordering a receipt of materials should take a week since the suppliers have stated a shipping policy of about 3-5 business days. The training and reassignment should take a maximum of 1 week and should take no more time. We can do the training and assembly line concurrently since we will need the assembly line for assembling the transmitters and receivers. The assembly line will take about 2 weeks just to set up the work floor with the proper equipment and area. The total assembly of components will take about 6 weeks; this is based on the learning curves of the workers. The transmitters will take about 6 weeks and the receivers will take about 2 weeks. These assumptions are based on the learning curve of the workers on top of their efficiencies to assemble the receivers and transmitters. The alignment and testing will take about 3 weeks and can begin once some of the receivers and transmitters are assembled. The 3 week assumption is based also on the learning curve it would take to test each system. The packaging would take about 3 weeks, and this was also based on the learning curve per person. 8 P a g e

12 4.2 Scheduling detail Task Name Duration Early Start Early Finish Late Start Late Finish Free Slack Total Slack Critical Ordering and receipt of all Thu Wed Thu Thu 1 wk production 3/3/11 3/9/11 3/3/11 3/10/11 0 wks 0 wks Yes materials Reassignment Thu Wed Thu Thu and training of 1 wk 3/10/11 3/16/11 3/17/11 3/24/11 full-time workers 1 wk 1 wk No Assembly line Thu Wed Thu Thu 2 wks setup 3/10/11 3/23/11 3/10/11 3/24/11 0 wks 0 wks Yes Assembly of Thu Wed Thu Wed 6 wks components 3/24/11 5/4/11 3/24/11 5/4/11 0 wks 0 days Yes Assembly of Thu Wed Thu Wed 6 wks transmitters 3/24/11 5/4/11 3/24/11 5/4/11 0 wks 0 wks Yes Assembly of Sun Thu Thu Wed wks receivers 4/3/11 4/14/11 4/21/11 5/4/11 wks wks No Alignment of Wed Tue Thu Thu components/final 3 wks 4/6/11 4/26/11 4/14/11 5/5/11 wks wks testing No Packaging 3 wks Thu Wed Thu Wed 5/5/11 5/25/11 5/5/11 5/25/11 0 wks 0 wks Yes Figure 11: Scheduling sheet There is free slack and total slack in the reassignment and training of workers for one week, which means that this is the amount of time the project can be delayed without affecting the finish date. The assembly of the receivers can be delayed 2.8 weeks without having an effect on the end date of the whole project. The final testing can be delayed 1.2 weeks also without affecting the finish date. 9 P a g e

13 4.3 AOA Diagram Figure 12: AOA diagram The AOA diagram layouts out all the predecessor relations on to a network diagram and shows all the possible paths. The red path in the AOA diagram is the critical path. Also FS is denoted as free slack. 10 P a g e

14 4.4 Production line Figure 13: Production line facility The space above measures 100 x 300 feet and is a secure, well lit space. The space has a circular flow starting at the loading dock and storage. Workers will go from storage to assembly then afterwards to testing. The testing area is separated by wire mesh about 3-5 feet apart from each other. In order to avoid any interference from any other tests that is going on. Once testing is finished then works can move into the packaging area. 11 P a g e

15 Section 5. Risk Consequences 5.1 Risk identification Risk depends on the likelihood and the impact of the event happening. It is calculated by these two equations: RC(Time) = (Impact time)(likelihood) = Correction Cost RC(Cost) = (Impact cost) (Likelihood) = Correction Time Ordering of materials RC(T) = (3 weeks)(.55) = 1.65 weeks RC(C) =( $41,400)(.55) = $22,770 The risk consequence for the ordering and receiving of materials has a about a 55% of happening which could possibly delay our project about 3 weeks. Due to this the impact is very deep and could have catastrophic implications on the project. Delaying the project 3 weeks due to missing materials would easily make us lose about 13,800 on labor costs per week, which means we would lose in total $41,400. This is the cost it takes for total labor of the project for each week. The project would then be delayed and workers would have to be paid an extra three weeks. All of this would take a correction time of 1.65 weeks and would incur a correction cost of $22,770. Reassignment and training of workers RC(T) = (2 weeks)(.10) =.2 weeks RC(C) =( 2,322)(.2) = $464.4 In the reassignment and training of workers the likelihood of this having a negative impact is about 10%. This event has a low risk because this is a training session and reassignment for workers. The risks with this would be that if workers fail the training course or do not accept their assignment within the company. The monetary impact on this would the loss of workers and per worker we would lose about a week in our project if we lost any workers. Adding a week in our project would cost us only about $2,322 depending on where the worker was designated to work. In some cases losing a worker can also be a benefit based on how many workers were allocated and how much time it takes to do a task. The cost to correct this in would be about $464.4 and would only cut us back about 3 days. Assembly line set up RC(T) = (4 weeks)(.30) = 1.2 weeks RC(C) =( 68,000)(.30) = $20, P a g e

16 The assembly line set up would have a probably of 30% of having a risk consequence. The delay for the assembly line could be about 4 weeks, which would then create an issue with assembling any of the parts for the project. This delay would cost about $13,800 per person depending on the phase of the project affected and would delay the assembly of the transmitters for about 2 weeks which would round out to a cost of $60,000 due to labor costs associated with the delay. It would also delay the assembly of the receivers which would cost about $80,000 due to the labor costs per week of each of the workers. With all of these costs based on the probability the project will be set back about 1.2 weeks and will cost the project $20,400. Assembly of component systems RC(T) = (11 weeks)(.30) = 3.3 weeks RC(C) =( 41,400)(.30) = $12,420 The assembly of component systems would have a likelihood of 30%. The worst case scenario that this event would set the project back about 11 weeks, which is a big deal since most of the cost comes out of this project. The likelihood is however low unless assembly failure rate is high, the likelihood and probability still remain low. The cost of this happening within 11 weeks is 41,400 because of all the labor costs that would be incurred in the extra weeks for assembly. There would have to be a correction time of 3.3 week s and a correction cost of 12,420 for this risk. Alignment of component systems/final testing RC(T) = (8.5 weeks)(.40) = 3.4 weeks RC(C) =( 24,000)(.40) = $12,420 The alignment of component systems has a likelihood of 40% and could have an impact on 8.5 weeks. Due to this the cost of this impact would be about 24,000 due to the salaries of the testing workers which would have to work an extra amount of time. The correction time would be about 3.4 weeks and there would have to be a correction cost of about $12,420. Packaging RC(T) = (6 weeks)(.30) = 1.8 weeks RC(C) =( 18,000)(.30) = $5,400 Packaging has a risk consequence likelihood of 30 % since most of the material components would just need to be packed up. The only issue with this is if the packaging is done incorrectly and the materials break. Such an error would cost the project about 6 weeks and a cost of $18,000 based on labor expenses. There would be a correction time of 1.8 weeks and a correction cost of $5, P a g e

17 Section 6. Pert Diagramming 6.1 Pert Diagram Pert stands for Program evaluation and review technique and is a model for project managers to analyze and represent tasks involved in completing a given project. Activity a m b te Var STD dev 1 - Ordering and receiving of all production materials Reassignment and training of full-time workers Assembly line setup Assembly of transmitters Assembly of Receivers Alignment of component systems/final testing Packaging Figure 14: Pert diagram for each activity Program evaluation review technique diagram shows the expected time, variance, the most optimistic weeks, pessimistic weeks and most likely weeks to be completed. The expected time was calculated using the formula (a+4m+b)/6. Standard deviation was calculated by using the formula (b-a)/6. The variance was calculated as (b-a/6) ^2. 14 P a g e

18 6.2 Critical Path and success rate Critical path Duration Figure 15: Critical path Critical path (ts) 12 Vp z for 50 0 z for te for te for The critical path in this project is since it has duration of 12 weeks. The likeliness the project will finish with a 50% chance of success is 10 weeks. For a 90% success it will take about 7 ½ weeks. There are no other critical paths that could be found on the diagram. 15 P a g e

19 Section 7. Project Crashing Crashing is the process of expediting project schedule by compressing the project duration. This is helpful because we might want to avoid any bad situations, such as bad weather without having to delay the project. The issue with crashing a project is the need for more resources which will be needed to speed up sections of the project that might be lagging behind. Activity Tn Cn Crash Cost slope 1 - Ordering and receipt of all production materials 2 - Reassignment and training of full-time workers 1 $4,025, $4,025, $ 13, $ 13, Assembly line setup 2 $ 27, $ 27, Assembly of transmitters 6 $ 10, $ 11, Assembly of receivers 2 $ 16, $ 16, Alignment of components/final testing 3 $ 51, $ 52, Packaging 3 $ 4, $ 5, Total $4,149, $4,152, Figure 16: Crash chart Each of the tasks cost is calculated by the total cost of each task by multiplying the labor by the amount of weeks. The cost slope is the cost per task multiplied by 40 hours a week. The maximum crashing was determined by the values given in the scheduling chart. We do not anticipate crashing to affect the total amount of workers since the maximum crash rate was calculated to be 3. If a problem occurs supervisors will then act as a worker and either assemble, package or test parts in order to decrease the overall time with crashing. 16 P a g e

20 Paths Task time 1st crash 2nd crash 3rd crash 4th crash Task crashed Crash cost $ 1, $ $ $ Total crash cost $ 2, Figure 17: Crashing of paths In order for the project to go faster we need to first crash task 6 because it is the most expensive. However we can only crash task 6 once because it can only be crashed once.. The next task we crashed was task 4 since it had the most amount of crash time and could be crashed 3 times until it was maximized. We found that there is still only one critical path and the earliest this project can be completed was 9 weeks. The total crash cost was 2,800 which are calculated by the cost of labor by the number of weeks to crash a project. Section 8. Issues 8.1 Sexual Harassment Sexual harassment is a serious issue and should/will not be tolerated in the work place. It would be appropriate to talk to both parties before taking any action. However if there is any proof of sexual harassment, the information techs at the facility must be fired immediately because it can lead to deeper consequences. The proper definition of sexual harassment is the unwelcome conduct on the basis of gender and affects a person s job. This includes unwelcome sexual advances, requests for sexual favors, or other verbal or physical conduct of a sexual nature. Sexual harassment will be defined clearly for all workers in this manner, any conduct that falls within those guidelines will lead to a person being dismissed. If the information technology tech falls under any one of these assumptions they will be dismissed. 8.2 Sexual Harassment training In all training sessions all workers must go through sexual harassment training. All workers need to have an understanding of what sexual harassment is and the consequences are. All workers will be notified if they are caught in any form sexual harassment they will be fired. If sexual harassment does become an issue for most employees it might be a good idea to consider administering a HARE exam to make sure we might not have any psychopaths working in our facility. However a HARE exam is too expensive and it really would be best for us to just train the workers as well as we can. 17 P a g e

21 Section 9. References Litz Wire How stuff works Wireless power Learning Curve calculator Wireless power transfer GSH Industries Sexual Harassment facts Crashing a project Section 10.Appendices 10.1 Problem set (attached) 18 P a g e