Motor Systems Technology Developments

Transcription

1 Motor Systems Technology Developments Anibal T. de Almeida Motor Summit 2018 International

2 European Motor Market by Application Total: Million US$ Total: 15 Million Units Source: IHS Markit

3 EV sales prediction 2015 to 2040 (Bloomberg)

4 Timeline of Motor efficiency regulations

5 Market share (units) by Efficiency Class (IE) in Europe Source: CEMEP

6 Efficiency Class Evolution (units) Source: IHS Markit

7 Motor Market Evolution in the EU 4% IE4 in 2020 (Source - CEMEP)

8 VSD market penetration forecast for 2020 Source: CEMEP

9 VSD market penetration in Pumps, Fans and compressors is larger than the whole market The VSD Market is expected to grow at a annual rate of 4-5% in Pump, Fan and Compressor applications. Because these are the applications that most benefit from the use of VSD, the market is growing faster in this product group than when considering the whole market.

10 VSD market penetration Not all applications benefit from the use of VSDs and Direct-on-Line (DOL) motors will always represent a significant portion of the market. Pump, Fans and Compressor applications represent 85% of motors sold. Of these, around 2/3 would benefit from speed / torque control. The percentage of motor systems that would benefit from a VSD is estimated at 50-60%.

11 VSDs Power Loss Comparison - Si Vs SiC

12 VSD Savings in the EU (0, kw) - 45% penetration (2020) - average efficiency 94.5% - IE2 large impact 7 TWh - WideBand Gap potential to reduce VSD losses by 55% 10 TWh Savings 12

13 Motor efficiency legislation in the European Union 1998 CEMEP / EU Agreement July June 2011 July Jan Jan 2017 Adoption of Regulation 640/2009 Stage 1: Motors with rated output 0, kw must meet IE2 efficiency level Adoption of Regulation 4/2014 (amendment) Stage 2: Motors with rated output 7,5 375 kw must meet IE3 efficiency level or IE2 + VSD Stage 3: Motors with rated output 0, kw must meet IE3 efficiency level or IE2 + VSD

14 New EC Proposed Regulation and Timeline 15 Jan 2021 Medium power 3-phase motors (750 W 375 kw) IE3 (Removal of IE2+VSD option) brake motors, explosion proof, increased safety motors, are excluded VSDs IE2 1 Jul 2022 Small three phase motors (120 W 750 W) - IE2 Single phase motors ( 120 W) - IE2 Increased Safety motors (120 W 1000 kw) IE2 Large low voltage motors (375 kw 1 000kW) - IE3 COMMENTS -In USA brake motors, are NOT excluded -In general the proposed timeframes seems too long -IE4 motors have the potential to save about 8 TWh/year -Other motor technologies (e.g. LSPM deserve to be included) -Standby consumption of VSDs should be included in the information requirements

15 Penetration of IE4 Motors Similarly to what happened with other efficiency classes (IE2 and IE3) in the past, the market penetration of IE4 motors is expected to remain fairly low unless these motors are regulated. Without regulation an annual growth of 15% per year up to 2030 is expected based on the trends of the last few years

16 European Motor Market -Efficiency Class Sales Projection NO IE4 Regulation

17 European Motor Market Efficiency Class sales Projection with IE4 Regulation Jan/2022

18 Estimated Motor Market Share by Technology in 2030 No IE4 regulation With IE4 regulation Note: It is assumed that in % of the motor sales will use a VSD. In the IE4 efficiency class 40% of motors using a VSD will be induction motors. Only induction motors will be used in direct-on-line applications.

19 Technologies for Higher Efficiency Motors

20 Commercial Technologies for Higher Efficiency Motors Premium Super-Premium Ultra-Premium IE3 IE4 IE5 IE6? Squirrel Cage Induction Motors PM Motor + VSD LSPM PM Motor +VSD SynRel Motor + VSD SynRel / PM Motor + VSD Source:ISR-University of Coimbra

21 Efficiency of commercially available IE4 and IE5 motors Efficiency (%) , Power (kw) IE3 IE4 IE5 SCIM (IE4) LSPM (IE4) PM (IE5) SynRel (IE4) SynRel+PM(IE5) 21

22 Various rotor configurations for IE4 Motors ALIM CRIM IPMSM SM-PMSM SynRM Aluminium rotor induction motor (ALIM), copper rotor induction motor (CRIM) internal permanent magnet synchronous motor (IPMSM), internal permanent magnet synchronous motors with rotor cage (line-start IPMSM), surface permanent magnet synchronous motor (SM-PMSM), synchronous reluctance motor (SynRM).

23 Typical fraction of losses in 50-Hz, four-pole IMs Aluminium Cage Copper rotor motors can decrease the rotor losses by up to 50%

24 Comparison of Motor Technologies Motor type 1 -Induction motor with copper rotor 2- Induction motor with aluminium rotor 3-Permanent magnet synchronous motor 4-Line start permanent magnet 5-Synchronous Reluctance Needs electronic controller Cost Premium Vs IE3 Cost of Repair No 20-30% Low *** No 20-30% Low ** Yes 100% High **** No 100% High ***** Yes 50% Low *** Power/ Weight Ratio 24

25 Line Start PM motors (LSPM) Hybrid motor with squirrel cage rotor fitted with high energy permanent magnets making it suitable for direct on line start Interchangeable with induction motors (same output x frame ratio) Available with IE4 efficiency 25

26 Line Start PM motor - Starting The starting kick of LSPMs is quite violent, which can lead to accelerated mechanical wear of the motor and load bearings and/or gears (if any). Robbie McElveen, Mike Melfi, Roger Daugherty, Line start permanent magnet motors Starting, standards and application guidelines, Petroleum and Chemical Industry Technical Conference (PCIC), 2014 IEEE 26

27 Direct-on-line SynRM (DOLSynRM) An induction cage within the rotor which is used for starting. At the end of the starting phase reluctance torque pulls the motor to synchronous speed. IE5 efficiency level 27

28 Total Motor Weight for different technologies 11 kw, 1500 rpm Source of data: Product catalogues; direct from manufacturers; own calculation

29 Metal Abundance vs Price 29

30 New / Alternative technologies Reduced-Dy magnet technology (e.g. Hitachi s dysprosium vapor deposition diffusion technology). Recycling (limited by economic feasibility). Development of new magnetic materials (some not yet commercially available): Iron Nitride, Samarium Iron Nitride, Cerium and Manganese-based compositions, magnetic nanoparticles and Iron Lithium Nitride. Using less costly and widely available Ferrite Magnets. 30

31 Rare-Earth Price Dysprosium Neodymium Rare earth prices have steadily trended downward since

32 RE Magnet Disadvantages Price instability / uncertainty due to concentrated production (> 70% is in China). Limited supply of Dysprosium. Environmental impact of extraction / processing. Baotou, China 32

33 Ferrite Magnets Keep Improving

34 High Power Density Ferrite PMSM (ORNL)

35 Price of different technologies Motor price is not just a function of material content / price of materials. Cost is also strongly related to motor construction, assembly process and automation level. Even lower cost for IE4/IE5 SynRM driven by economy of scale is expected (some manufacturers predict the cost to be even lower than IE3 induction motors). At least one manufacturer is already offering IE5 SynRM for the same price as IE3 IM.

36 Price/kW comparison of different motors Source: LOT30, Individual Manufacturers

37 Motor Total Life-Cycle Cost 11 kw motor 15 years lifetime EU average Electricity Price 2015: /kwh Price Increase IE3 + 20% IE4 + 20% + 100% IE5 ( 20%) IE5 ( 100%) 37

38 Motor + VSD Total Life-Cycle Cost 11 kw motor + VSD 15 years lifetime EU average Electricity Price 2015: /kwh 38

39 Comparative Experimental Analysis of 7.5 kw Motor Technologies Using the same VSD 1- IE2 Induction motor with aluminium rotor 2- IE3 Induction motor with aluminium rotor 3- IE4 Induction motor with copper rotor 4- IE5 Permanent magnet synchronous motor 5- IE5 Synchronous Reluctance 39

40 Motor 7.5 kw + VSD Combined Efficiency

41 IE5 SynRM Motor 7.5 kw + VSD Combined Efficiency

42 Motor + VSD Efficiency

43 Proposed Actions Comparative analysis of different super-premium technologies in terms of resources use and environmental impact (LCA). Future avenues for motor efficiency policy moving from a components approach to a systems approach. Update of the detailed characterisation of the European motor systems market (SAVE study from 2000). Similar action in the USA (