General Strategies and Initial Networks. Urban Trenton

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1 Introduction MercerCountyislocatedincentralNewJersey.ThecountycontainsNew Jersey sstatecapital,trenton,andhasapopulationof364,883accordingtotheus CensusBureau 1.Mercercontainsahandfulofcollegecampuses,includingPrinceton UniversityinPrinceton,RiderUniversityinLawrenceville,MercerCounty CommunityCollegeinWestWindsor,andThomasEdisonStateCollegeinTrenton. Belowisamapofthecounty: Mercerranks80 th ourofover3000countiestheunitedstatesinpercapita incomeaccordingtothebureauofeconomicanalysis 3.Someofthelarger employersincludetheuniversities,bristol MeyersSquibb,Church&Dwight Company,McGrawHillCompanies,andEducationalTestingServices. 4 Thecounty hasthreetrainstationsonthenortheastcorridorlinethatrunsfromwashington D.C.throughNewJerseyandNewYorkuptoBoston:TrentonTransitCenter, HamiltonStation,andPrincetonJunction. 1 USCensusBureau,PopulationDivision 2 Image: estate maplewood nj.com/ 3 250HighestPerCapitaPersonalIncomesofthe3111CountiesintheUS, MercerCountyEconomicProfile 2

2 GeneralStrategiesandInitialNetworks Urban Trenton ForurbanareaswithinMercersuchasTrenton,mystrategywastobuild interconnectedconcentriccyclestocreateagrid.thenaturalgridnetworkof streetsmadethenetworkdesignrelativelysimple,withstationsatstreetcrossings andguidewayalongtheroads.ithinkthissystemworkedparticularlywellin Trenton,asthecitycontainsadiversemixofproductionsandattractions,and,in general,theconcentriccyclesallowfordirecttripsthatonlyincuranadditional aroundtheblock cost.seebelowforapictureofthetrentoninitialnetwork: Interchangesplayedakeyroleintheurbandesign,servingaswaystomove betweenthecyclesandprovidetwo wayguidewayinsomeareas.thestations coveragestendtooverlaponlybecausethedensityoftrentonproductionsand attractionsrequiresnearlyfullcoverageinordertobeeffective. Suburban/University PrincetonUniversity Mymainstrategyinplanningthesuburbananduniversitynetworkswasto minimizetheinvasivenessofthesystem.ingeneral,schoolsandneighborhoodspay closeattentiontoatmosphereandprtguidewayallovercampusandthe surroundingareaswouldbethelaststructuringthattheseplaceswouldwantina PRTnetwork.However,bycompletelyavoidingthesuburbsandcolleges,we neglectanimportantpartofthepopulationandaveryhighnumberoftrips.thus,i attemptedtobalancetheissuesofservingtripswhileminimizinginvasivenessin planningoutthesenetworks.

3 Inordertominimizeintrusion,Idecidedtousetwo wayguidewayinahandful ofinstances.ithinkcollegesandneighborhoodswouldbehappierwithafew instancesoftwo wayguidewayversuslinesthatrunallthewaythroughthecampus orsurroundingareas.seebelowforacloserlookexample(fromtheoldprinceton Network): IchosetocreatethefirstinitialnetworkatPrincetonUniversityandits surroundingareas.theuniversityalonehasastudentpopulationofaround7,500 andastaffofaround5,000.however,thenetworkdesignismainlywiththestaffin mind,ascollegestudentstendtobefrugalandeverythingonprinceton scampus seemstobeaneasywalkaway.theonlysemblanceofprtcurrentlyexistsonthe campusofwestvirginiauniversityinmorgantown,wv,soanothercollegetown seemslikeanappropriateplacetobegin.seethenextpageforasnapshotofthe PrincetonNetwork. ImadeafewchangestotheinitialPrincetonNetwork,withthegoalofreducing traveltimeforshortlineofsighttripsacrosscampus.onasecondconsideration, thesechangeswouldbeimperativetothecreationofanetworkinprinceton.inmy oldnetwork,itriedtokeepcampusguidewayasclosetozeroaspossible.however, indoingso,therewereafewsituationswhereshortlineofsighttripslookedtobea fairamountlongerbecausetheguidewaywentinalooparoundcampus.thus,if adjacentstationswerenotconnectedbyguidewayintherightdirection,onewould havetoridetheentirelooptogofromonetoanother.bynotmakingthesetrips convenient(acrosscampusforinstance),weneglectalargeportionoftripswithin theuniversitythatcouldprovidesignificantrevenue Inthisnewnetwork,Idecidedtotakeadvantageoftheexistingon campus streetselmandthestreetsouthofdillongym,toprovidethedesiredaccessibility.

4 This design would probably not align with the University s ideal system, but by serving more trips and demonstrating higher profitability of this initial network, we can make the push for expansion earlier. And, with this additional revenue, we might be able to make a profit sharing agreement with the University such that we would be allowed to place some guideway on roads on campus. Rural I did not design an initial rural network, as I mainly used these to interconnect the previous two network designs. My basic strategy for rural areas was to make loops with one way guideway, and use two way guideway only to connect loops or minimize invasiveness. For an illustration, see the next page:

5 GeneralStatistics Belowisatableofthegeneralnetworkstatistics.Thedatasetfromlastyearslotted recreationtrips under non studentpatrontrips,andforconsistencyidecidedto dothesame.oneareaofimprovementthatcanbemadetoaproposalforprtin Mercercountywouldbetosplitthenon studentpatrontripsintorecreation,dining, shopping,etc.themainconceptthatichangedsincetheearlierreporthadtodo withhometripends.accordingtotheolddataset,only200,000peopleresidedin MercerCounty,soItookalookattheplacemarkfile,andevenlydistributedthe populationthroughoutthecensusblockstogetthenumbertothe360,000 threshold.hopefullythe2010censusdatacanbeusedtogetmoreaccurateresults. Thenewresultsarebelow: Total Trip (Ends) Served Serves Possible % Service Home Trip Ends 1,306,572 1,451, % Work Trip Ends 393, , % Recreation Trip Ends Transport Trip Ends 39,000 39, % Student trip Ends 111, , % (Non-Student) Patrons trip Ends 294, , % Total 2,145,088 2,353, % OnthenextpageisatablecontainingthepopulationstatisticsforMerceraswellas apopulationdistributionfornewjerseyasofthe2000census.thecountyhas about364,000people,sothe425,649worktripsindicatesa(total)employment

6 percentageof46.4%,assumingthateachpersonworksawayfromhomeand2.5 tripendsareatwork.thebreakdownisbetweenmaleandfemale: New Jersey Population Distribution, 2000 Census , % 275, % , % 294, % , % 287, % , % 254, % , % 235, % , % 272, % , % 325, % , % 367, % , % 359, % , % 313, % , % 284, % , % 220, % , % 174, % , % 160, % , % 159, % , % 144, % , % 104, % , % 97, % Total under % Total over % Sum 46.1% 100%-Sum 53.9% 10% Unemployment 48.5% Asitturnsout,around48%ofthepopulationshouldbemakingworktrips,sothe Mercernumbersslightlylow ballactualemployment.thisiswithfairlyliberal assumptions everyonefrom5 25makesschooltripsonlyandeveryoneover65 (retirees)makesnoworktrips.thisresultmakesalotofsense,astheemployment dataintheplacemarkfileislessthancomplete.forinstance,ididasearchfora handfulofpopularfast foodchains(mcdonald s,wendy s,andburgerking),and notasingleoneappearedinthefile.theplacemarksarefineforthelarge employersandcensusdata,butifsomeonecouldfindawaytoimprovethe employmentdata,thatwoulddoagreatdealinimprovingthebidforamercerprt system.giventhespottydata,ithinkthenumberofworktripsisfairlyrealistic. The0.89ratioofpatronstripendsperdaytothecountypopulationseems reasonable,asontheaverageeachpersonmightmakeannon work,non home, outsidetripeverydayoreveryotherday.thetripendsperpersonperdayseems slightlyonthelowsideat6.45,giventhatthe0 5and75+populationsareassumed

7 totakenotrips.however,oncethesefactorsareconsidered,theaveragepersonhas about7.6tripendsperday,whichseemsreasonable. Population Statistics Population 364,883 Possible # Trip Ends Per Person Per Day 6.45 Persons between ,151 Possible # Trip Ends Per 5-75 Person Per Day 7.59 Patrons Trips Per Day : Population 0.89 Theinterchangeswereassumedtoincurnoconstructioncost,leadingtoacloseto 1:1ratioofinterchangestostations. Network Statistics Total Stations 491 Total Interchanges 456 Total Miles of Guideway Animageoftheentirenetworkisincludedonthefollowingpage.

8 EntireNetwork

9 FurtherAnalysis BelowisachartofthetotaltripsservedbystationinMercerCounty.Thecharthas aheavytail,asonlyapairofstationsservemorethan25,000individualsperday. Byfarmoststationsserve5,000peopleorless.Seebelowthechartfordescriptions ofthetwomostpopulousstations. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 TotalTripsPerStation total Trenton(serves35,106peopleperday) Thisstationislocatedinprobablythe densestresidentialandcommercialareainmercercounty,asitcontainsthomas EdisonStateCollege(~7,000people,countedatthreetripseach). PrincetonJunction(serves27,609peopleperday) NJTransitDataindicatethat 9,000boardings(eachway,so18,000total)occuratthePrincetonJunctionTransit Centeronatypicalweekday,andresidential/commercialestablishmentsmakeup therest.

10 Finances Intermsoffinancialfeasibility,theMercerCountyNetworkseemsreasonablewith thebaselineassumptions.atafareof$3,averagetriplengthof5miles,andusinga linearmodesplitdiscountfactor,thenetworkmakesanannualprofitof$178 millionafterpayingtheannualoperatingexpensesandcostofcapital.because Mercerisaverywealthycounty,wecouldalsoconsiderahigherfarethanthebase $3,inwhichcaseMercerwouldturnevenhigherprofits. WiththechangesmadetotheCensuspopulationdatatohitthecorrectMercer Countypopulation,theprofitabilityswungfavorably: MercerNetworksStatistics Stations Interchanges Milesof Guideway Length TotalTrip ends served TotalTrips Peakhour Trips Fleet size Average trip Length Average Vehicle Occupancy (#) (#) (miles) (perday) (perday) (perday) (#) (Miles) (Trips/vehicle) Fare Vehicle Operating Costs ,046, , ,799 14, $3.00 $0.20 Mostofthesenumberscanbetweakedtotestwhat ifscenariosforrunninga MercerPRTNetwork,andthereisafareadjustmentgraphonthefollowingpage.A P&Lanalysisisincludedinthetablebelow.Afteramortizingthecapitalcostindebt (ataninterestof8%)andincludingtheyearlyoperatingcosts,thesystemattainsa profitof$178million: MercerBasicCosts,Revenue CapitalCosts AnnualRecurringCosts AnnualRevenue P&L Station leaseand naming Stations Guideway Vehicles Total CostofCapital Maintenance Operating Total Fare rights Total (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) $982 $2,394 $1,406 $4,782 $383 $96 $128 $606 $767 $18 $784 $178 Onekeyitemtokeepinmindisthesizeofthisnetwork scoverage.intheattemptto reach90%coverage,ihadtobuildstationsinzonesthatcontainedfewerandfewer trips.iwouldguessthatthereismostlikelyanoptimumprofitabilitylevelof coverageforprofitabilitybetween30%and80%.however,mostimportantly,the networkdoessatisfytheoverallgoalofthenjprtsystemofprofitabilityand90%+ service.

11 Anotherpotentialadjustmenttothemodelmightbeinchargingadifferentfare.We assumed$3foranaveragetriplengthoffivemiles thechartbelowdepictsyearly profitwhenvaryingfaresandgivencompletelyinelasticdemand.withthechanges madetothepopulationstatistics,thebreak evenfaredroppedadollartoabout $2/ride. 800 P&L(MM)forvariousfares P&L *breakevenpoint~$2.00

12 StationCostAnalysis Iranastationrevenueanalysis,lookingathowmanystationswouldsurpassthe break evenpoint.iusedtheassumptionthateachstationwouldcontribute$0.45in revenuepertripserved.iused300asthenumberofdaysperyear,asweekend tripsarereduced.ialsodiscountedthenumberoftripsby0.9toaccountformodal split.tocomputethebreak evenpoint,iassumedthateachstationcost$2million dollarsandthatwewouldborrowthemoneyover20yearsatan8%interestrate. Insertingthisnumberintoamortgageamortizingcalculator 5 givesaregular paymentof$203,000peryear. Asitturnsout,moststationsfallbelowthisbreak evenpoint.thisresultdoes makesenseforthisnetworkthough attainingthe90%thresholdinmercermeant buildingstationsthatservedlessthan1,000tripendsatfirst,andthenmovingonto stationsthatservedevenlessthan500tripendsperday.thestationsinprinceton andtrentonaretheonesthatareontheleftsideofthescale,and,ingeneral,the stationsbecomemoreandmoreruralasyoumoverightward.thisgraphaffirms theproposalthatprtstartindenser,trip heavyareaslikeprincetonandtrenton, andgraduallyexpandoutwards. 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 revenue/year breakevenpoint 500, bin/amortize

13 ConstructionEvolutionPlan Onthefollowingpageisatableindicatingtheyearlybuildstatisticsforthe MercerCountyPRTNetwork.Theplanruns15years,andstartswithinitialhubsin TrentonandPrincetonUniversity.UnfortunatelyIwasnotabletorunaprofit byyearanalysis,butiwouldimaginethattheinitialyearsnetworks(years1 5)offer thebestprofitmarginsasthelargetripproductionsandattractions universities, urbanareas,largecorporateoffices,anddenseresidentialareas arecovered. Years5 10starttomoveintothesuburbsandschooldistricts.Whilethese networkadditionsaremostlikelyprofitable,theywouldnotbeassuccessfulasthe previousnetworksduetolesstripsandmoreguidewayingeneral.years10 15 starttomoveintothelessprofitablestationsinruralareas,wheresomestations servelessthan1,000trips.thisisthesacrificeacountyorthestatewouldhaveto makeinordertoserve90%oftrips,and,inthiscase,itturnsoutthatthesystem maintainsprofitability.iwouldnotnecessarilyrecommendimmediateexpansion beyondthe2 nd or3 rd yearasthemodalsplitnumbersindicatethatstationsbuiltin years4 5andbeyonddonotbreakeven.Thoughtheentiresystemwouldbe profitableinthoseyears,maximizingprofitisagreatobjectiveandadding unprofitablestationswouldnotmakesense.ofcourse,amoreaccuratedataset wouldaidgreatlyinthisregard.wecouldalsoconsideradjustingthe$0.45revenue pertripassumptionespeciallyforthemostpopulousstations,butwiththisdataand theseassumptions,fullexpansiondoesnotseemreasonable. Guideway (miles) Year Built Stations Interchanges Shape Points / / / / / / *Itseemsasiftheprogramdidnotcorrectlycalculateyears3,5,and6 Unfortunately,Ididn tsaveeachsuccessiveyearasaseparatefile,andcouldnotdo ayear by yearprofitanalysisortripsservedanalysis.also,itwouldnotbe

14 appropriatetoassumethateachstationservesthesamenumberoftrips.however, giventhehubsinmercerandtrenton,theprofitabilitychartwouldmostlikelytake offinthebeginning,asthedensestareasareservedbythenetwork.towardsyears 3 5,theprofitabilitywouldstarttoplateauaswestartbuildingstationsinless denseareas,andinyears5onwardstheprofitabilitywouldstarttograduallydrop, asintheattempttoserve90%ofthepopulation,thestationshavetobebuiltin progressivelylesspopulousareas RoomforImprovementandConclusion Aswithmostcounties,oneofthebestwaystoimprovethereasonabilityofthe networkistoincreasetheaccuracyofthedata.ithinkasofthisyearthemercer Countydatasetisfairlyreasonableforthelargetripproductionsandattractions,but asthenumberoftripsdecreases,thesketchinessofthedataincreases.forinstance, asmentionedearlier,iperformedasanitycheckbysearchingfor McDonald s, BurgerKing, Chipotle, and Wendy s, andnotasingleplacemarkshowedup, eventhoughahandfulofeachareinmercer.whilethedatasetisverylarge,iwould sayitisnotquiteexhaustive.ifnextyear steamcouldspendsometimecomingup withanewwayofcollectingdatapoints(especiallyemploymentones),thatwould gofarinimprovingthemeaningfulnessoftheprtproject.asmentionedearlier, categorizingthetripsintodining,shopping,recreation,etc.wouldalsoaddtothe modelsrepresentationofmercercountytransportation.moreover,theassumption thatinterchangesincurnocosttobuildisrelativelylimiting.inordertoimprove thesystemsrepresentationtoreality,perhapsa(small)costshouldbeattachedto theinterchange,suchas$50,000 $100,000. Ingeneral,thenetworksucceedsinprovidingaprofitwhileservingover92%of themercerpopulation.iwoulddefinitelyrecommendtrentonandprincetonas startingpointsforamercerprtnetworkasmanytripsendscouldbeservedfora reducedcostofcapital.ifthemajorityofarearesidentsstartchoosingprtastheir modeoftransit,thenthecountycanstartexpandingtoservermoretripendsand defraycostswiththeprofitsfromtheinitialnetworks.iwouldn tnecessarily recommendbuildingthenetworksdirectlysequentiallythough Ifirmlybelieve thattheoptimalstrategywouldbetobuildtheinitialnetworksinyearoneandsee howthenetworksperformprofit wisebeforeexpanding.theswitchfrom automobiles,trains,andbusestoprtwouldbeneitherquicknoreasy.many companiesandemployeesrelyonthesuccessoftheseformstransportationfora living,andtheywilldefinitelyputupafightbycuttingpricesandexpanding servicesuntiltheycannolongersurvive.theprtsystemmightnotturnaprofitfor thefirstcoupleyears,butideallyridershipwouldcontinuallyexpandastheother modesdwindle.prtwillhavetopassthisinitialtestbeforeexpandingtofewer trip zones.