Motion Control Market Update Alex Shikany MCA Director of Market Analysis February 20-22, 2013 Orlando World Marriott Center Orlando, Florida USA
Table of Contents I. World Economic Drivers II. Global Manufacturing Sector Trends III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis IV. What to Expect in 2013 V. Summary and Conclusion
20.0 15.0 I. World Economic Drivers World Economic Outlook Percent Change in Annual Real GDP 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 Faster Growth Slower Growth No Growth 10.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 USA Euro Area China Japan Brazil India Recession Forecast 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 USA 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.0 2.6 2.8 1.7 2.1 2.4 Euro Area 0.8 2.2 1.7 3.1 2.9 0.4 4.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.9 China 10.0 10.1 11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.2 8.2 8.8 Japan 1.4 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.2 6.3 3.9 0.7 2.0 1.7 Brazil 1.1 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 0.6 7.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 India 6.9 8.1 9.2 9.7 9.9 6.2 6.8 10.4 7.2 6.9 7.3
I. World Economic Drivers Investment Rates: Investment as a % of GDP 54.0 50.0 46.0 42.0 38.0 34.0 30.0 26.0 22.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 With China 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 Without China USA Euro Area China Japan Brazil USA Euro Area Japan Brazil Investment is Much Higher in China than Elsewhere in the World Except for Euro Area, Investment is Still Increasing Strongly Post-Recession Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
I. World Economic Drivers 106.00 Business Confidence Index 2010 2011 2012 Improving Conditions 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 USA Europe China Japan Brazil Business Confidence in Major Economies Rose in 2010, Fell in 2011, and Flattened in 2012 Source: OECD
II. Global Manufacturing Sector Trends 70.0 PMI (Three Month Moving Averages) 60.0 Annual Average PMI 65.0 60.0 55.0 55.0 50.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 China India Japan Brazil Canada USA Euro Zone Russia 45.0 2010 2011 2012 China India Japan Brazil Canada USA Euro Zone Russia Manufacturing Was Turbulent in 2012, Finally Posting Lower Numbers than 2011. Effect of Eurozone Crisis is Evident. Sources: Nomura/JMMA, HSBC Markit, Ivey (Canada), ISM (USA)
II. Global Manufacturing Sector Trends Production in Manufacturing Sector (2005 = 100) 140.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 USA EU Japan Russia Japan Has Declined Compared to 2005. USA, EU and Russia Have Improved. Data Source: OECD
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis Estimated Size of the Global Motion Control Market $15.000 $10.000 $5.000 $0.000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 North America Asia Pacific Europe Japan North America (16%) Asia Pacific (14%) Europe (38%) Japan (32%) Total World 2008 $1.863 $1.630 $4.424 $3.726 $11.642 2009 $1.304 $1.141 $3.097 $2.608 $8.150 2010 $1.719 $1.504 $4.083 $3.438 $10.745 2011 $2.175 $1.903 $5.165 $4.349 $13.591 2012 $2.183 $1.910 $5.185 $4.367 $13.645 Motion Control is Currently a $13.6 Billion Market Globally
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis MCA Reported Orders and Shipments in $ Billions (USD) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Orders $2.265 $1.525 $2.053 $2.609 $2.550 Shipments $2.556 $1.850 $2.317 $2.942 $2.936 # of Reporting Companies 18 19 25 29 27 % North American 72.9% 70.5% 74.2% 73.9% 74.4% NOTE: Orders and Shipments are different primarily because more MCA participating companies supply shipment data than order data for 2008 to 2012. MCA Year-Over-Year Real Growth Rates (in Percent) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Orders 11.4% 32.8% 29.8% 19.0% 3.4% Shipments 7.6% 30.3% 23.4% 22.3% 1.0% Orders and Shipments Contracted Mildly in 2012
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis 100% Relative Size of Product Categories Orders in $ Millions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Motion Controllers Electronic Drives (Amplifiers) Motors Actuators & Mechanical Systems Other Ancillary Components PLCs AC Drives AC Motors Sensors and Feedback Devices Support & Services
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis Relative Size of Product Categories Orders 2010 2011 2012 Average Motion Controllers 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% PLCs - - - - Electronic Drives (Amplifiers) 22.0% 19.6% 19.5% 20.4% AC Drives 12.1% 14.2% 13.0% 13.1% Motors 39.1% 36.2% 35.8% 37.0% AC Motors 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% Actuators & Mechanical Systems 17.2% 16.2% 17.0% 16.8% Sensors and Feedback Devices 1.3% 4.0% 4.4% 3.2% Other Ancillary Components 2.8% 4.1% 4.8% 3.9% Support & Services 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% TOTAL MARKET 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Largest Product Categories in Terms of Reported Orders are Motors, Electronic Drives and Actuators
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Relative Size of Product Categories Shipments in $ Millions Motion Controllers PLCs Electronic Drives AC Drives Motors AC Motors Actuators & Mechanical Systems Sensors and Feedback Devices Other Ancillary Components Support & Services
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis Relative Size of Product Categories Shipments 2010 2011 2012 Average Motion Controllers 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% PLCs - - - - Electronic Drives 23.7% 22.1% 21.6% 22.5% AC Drives 10.2% 11.7% 11.5% 11.1% Motors 39.1% 36.9% 35.8% 37.3% AC Motors 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Actuators & Mechanical Systems 15.4% 14.9% 15.7% 15.3% Sensors and Feedback Devices 1.7% 3.4% 3.8% 3.0% Other Ancillary Components 4.6% 5.8% 6.4% 5.6% Support & Services 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Similar to Reported Orders, the Largest Product Categories in Terms of Reported Shipments are Motors, Electronic Drives and Actuators
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis Annual Real* Growth Rates by Product Category - Orders 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Motion Controllers 59.1% 47.8% 43.1% 1.0% 7.7% Electronic Drives 31.1% 12.3% 7.2% 2.7% 3.6% AC Drives 27.5% 37.5% 45.7% 10.5% 11.3% Motors 27.8% 21.5% 15.9% 5.8% 0.9% AC Motors 52.5% 26.1% 37.6% 16.1% 6.8% Actuators & Mechanical Systems 43.4% 66.9% 12.5% 1.9% 9.5% Sensors and Feedback Devices 10.5% 69.4% 7.7% 3.2% 13.6% Other Ancillary Components 41.2% 81.4% 87.2% 13.8% 35.3% Support & Services 32.7% 39.0% 16.3% 20.3% 0.6% Total Market 32.8% 29.8% 19.0% 3.4% 3.2% Other Ancillary Components, Sensors and Feedback Devices and AC Drives have the Highest Average Real Growth Rates since 2009. For 2012, Other Ancillary Components, Sensors and Feedback Devices, and AC Motors were Strongest. * Adjusted for differences in number of reporting companies
III. Motion Control Sales Results and Analysis Annual Real* Growth Rates by Product Category - Shipments 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Motion Controllers 42.8% 15.9% 34.3% 2.4% 1.3% Electronic Drives 29.6% 11.3% 15.8% 2.2% 1.2% AC Drives 25.1% 26.4% 40.6% 2.1% 10.0% Motors 26.8% 19.2% 19.3% 4.6% 1.8% AC Motors 48.9% 32.8% 57.7% 8.5% 12.5% Actuators & Mechanical Systems 41.5% 47.4% 16.4% 4.6% 6.7% Sensors and Feedback Devices 10.8% 29.0% 23.2% 9.1% 12.6% Other Ancillary Components 25.4% 63.4% 64.2% 9.3% 27.9% Support & Services 25.8% 36.7% 7.8% 7.0% 2.9% Total Market 30.3% 23.4% 22.3% 1.0% 3.6% Other Ancillary Components, Sensors and Feedback Devices, and AC Motors have Highest Average Real Growth Rates Since 2009, and that was Reflected in 2012 * Adjusted for differences in number of reporting companies
IV. What to Expect in 2013 2013 Forecasted Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP Major World Economies are Forecasted to Post Single Digit Growth in 2013. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
IV. What to Expect in 2013 Reported MCA Orders 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Trend-line 2013 Forecast 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2007 2007 2007 2007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201320132013 Trending Forecast GDP Forecast Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Forecast $2.203 B $1.525 B $2.054 B $2.610 B $2.550 B 2013 Forecasted Growth Rates $2.821 B Trending 10.7% $2.730 B GDP 7.1%
IV. What to Expect in 2013 Reported MCA Shipments 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Trend-line 2013 Forecast 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2007 2007 2007 2007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201320132013 Trending Forecast GDP Forecast Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Forecast $2.556 B $1.850 B $2.317 B $2.942 B $2.936 B 2013 Forecasted Growth Rates $3.167 B Trending 7.9% $3.132 B GDP 6.7%
V. Summary and Conclusion 2012 started off strong but slowed later in the year Later in 2012, the economy began an uptick as the Eurozone Crisis cooled and the U.S. Presidential Election ended U.S. Manufacturing expanded in December, marking optimism for 2013 The Fiscal Cliff was resolved alleviating some uncertainty Economic forecasts are positive for 2013, and manufacturing is expected to expand again Motion Control Sales followed Manufacturing, posting negative growth for 2012 and returned to the trend-line Motion Control Orders are trending to grow 10.7% in 2013 Motion Control Shipments are trending to grow 7.9% in 2013
MCA Medical Imaging Study
Contact Information Alex Shikany Director of Market Analysis 900 Victors Way, Suite 140 Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA Phone: (734) 994-6088 Email: ashikany@robotics.org Twitter: @AlexShikany Web: www.motioncontrolonline.org