Sorghum Forum 6 November 2015 Nico Hawkins General Manager
Supply & demand (National vs. International) Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS NAMC (S&DEC) International (IGC) Actual 2014/15 Projection: 2015/16 Estimate: 2014/15 Projection: 2015/16 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks 50.1 121.8 4.2 3.8 Production 261.5 114.0 62.2 69.5 Imports 8.7 0.0 11.8 13.0 Total use 166.4 (a) 168.8 (a) 62.6 68.2 Exports 26.2 30.0 11.8 13.0 Closing stocks 121.8 (b) 36.2 (b) 3.8 5.1 (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 26 Oct '15, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Oct ' 15 Source: International Grain Council's Grain Market Report - 29 Oct '15
Supply & demand (Sweet & Bitter Sorghum) Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS Actual 2014/15 NAMC (S&DEC) Projection: 2015/16 '000t '000t Sweet Bitter Total Sweet Bitter Total Opening stocks 43 171 6 898 50 069 66 266 55 546 121 812 Production 168 916 92 591 261 507 94 500 19 500 114 000 Imports 8 725 0 8 725 0 0 0 Total use (a) 115 581 50 829 166 410 114 800 55 950 170 750 Exports 22 121 4 048 26 169 25 000 5 000 30 000 Closing stocks (b) 66 266 55 546 121 812 21 566 14 596 36 162 (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 26 Oct '15, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Oct ' 15 Source: International Grain Council's Grain Market Report - 29 Oct '15
Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries 2015/16** 2014/15 2013/14 CEC Production * 116 500 265 000 147 200 SAGIS Deliveries 109 869 261 507 145 604 Difference 6 631 3 493 1 596 * CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progressive Mar - Sep '15
Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates: summer crops - intentions to plant CROP Commercial: Intentions 2016 Area planted 2015 Final estimate 2015 Change Ha Ha Tons % as mid October 2015 as on 29 Sep 2015 (A) (B) (C) (A) (B) White maize 1 421 800 1 448 050 4 702 700-1,81 Yellow maize 1 129 000 1 204 800 5 238 950-6,29 Maize 2 550 800 2 652 850 9 941 650-3,85 Sunflower seed 614 000 576 000 660 900 +6,60 Soybeans 696 400 687 300 1 059 850 +1,32 Groundnuts 44 700 58 000 56 675-22,93 Sorghum 74 750 70 500 116 500 +6,03 Dry beans 51 500 64 000 73 390-19,53 TOTAL 4 032 150 4 108 650 11 908 965-1,86 Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2015/16 = 2016 2015/16 = 2016 Source: CEC
Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries 300000 SORGHUM: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC Prod deliveries HA Yield S&DEC 4.00 250000 3.50 3.00 200000 2.50 150000 2.00 100000 1.50 1.00 50000 0.50 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj. 0.00
Imports and Exports per marketing season Summary Marketing year Sorghum Imports Exports Ton 2013/14 50 033 19 550 2014/15 8 725 26 169 2015/16* 0 18 035 *2015/16: Progressive Mar - Sep '15
Imports and Exports per marketing season 70000 SORGHUM: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.
Imports and Exports SARS Imports to RSA: 2015/16 Imports Country Tariff Line 1007.90 Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana 34.000 101.83 2 995.00 China 0.004 0.04 10 000.00 India 24.000 124.34 5 180.83 Korea, Rep Of 0.080 1.11 13 875.00 Malawi 8.000 2.62 327.50 United States 5 000.000 15 507.57 3 101.51
Imports and Exports SARS Exports to RSA: 2015/16 Exports Country Tariff Line 1007.90 Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana 11 526.819 36 775.37 3 190.42 Israel 22.00 290.67 13 212.27 Lesotho 2.703 17.47 6 463.19 Mozambique 0.047 1.59 33 829.79 Namibia 82.971 509.88 6 145.28 Swaziland 1 496.716 5 386.06 3 598.59 Zambia 3.100 26.36 8 503.23 Zimbabwe 1.950 12.07 6 189.74
Processed & Consumption Sorghum Processed 2015/16 * 2014/15 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Indoor malting 4 9 192 4 9 833 Floor malting 9 30 333 9 28 710 Meal, rice & grits 23 53 687 25 54 285 Pet Food 7 569 6 600 Poultry feed 30 2 250 30 2 184 Lifestock feed 14 3 766 9 732 99 797 96 344 * 2015/16: 1 Mar '15-30 Sep '15 Source: SAGIS ** 2014/15: 1 Mar '14-30 Sep '14
Consumption 120000 SORGHUM: PROCESSED Malting Meal, rice & grits Animal feed S&DEC 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.
Opening & Ending Stocks SORGHUM: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS 225000 Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC 200000 175000 150000 125000 100000 75000 50000 25000 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.
Sorghum 2015/16 Marketing Year Ton 180000 SORGHUM: 2015/16 MARKETING YEAR (Progressive: 1 Mar - 30 Sep 2015) 160000 164 750 140000 120000 116 500 109 869 Projected S&DEC 100000 97 235 80000 97 235 Progressive 60000 40000 20000 0 0 18 035 CEC Prod deliveries Processed Imports Exports
Price Movements Local prices (SAFEX) SAFEX: Latest prices vs. previous prices Sorghum Contract 2015/11/03 2015/10/02 2014/11/03 Price % Month Price % Year Price R on Month R on Year R December 3040.00 0.00 3040.00 23.58 2460.00 March 3000.00 0.87 2974.00 16.50 2575.00 Source: SAFEX
Price Movements International FOB prices FOB Gulf: Latest prices vs. previous Sorghum US No. 2 2015/10/28 2015/09/30 2014/10/24 Price % Month Price % Year Price $ on Month $ on Year $ 193.00-4.46 202.00-19.92 241.00 Source: International Grains Council: GMR - 29 Oct '15
Price Movements Indicative import parity prices Sorghum Sorghum Sorghum 2015/10/27 USA Argentine Australian Golf Up River Brisbane 2015/11 2015/10 2015/11 $/t $/t $/t FOB value 195.00 138.00 221.00 Freight 33.00 24.00 25.00 Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 0.59 0.41 0.66 Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) $/t 228.59 162.41 246.66 Converted to R/t Exchange R/$ 13.6571 13.6571 13.6571 R/t R/t R/t Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) 3121.88 2218.05 3368.66 Financing 24.38 17.32 26.30 Cost, insurance, freight & financing 3146.26 2235.37 3394.96 Discharging (Durban) 146.54 146.54 146.54 Import tariff 79.89 56.54 90.55 FOR at Durban 3372.69 2438.45 3632.05 Railage: Durban to Randfontein 432.09 432.09 432.09 DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein 3804.78 2870.54 4064.14 Source: International Grains Council: GMR - 29 Oct '15
SARS FOB prices SARS Annual average prices: (2014/15: Jan Aug) SORGHUM 1007.90 Imports Qua ntity (Ton) 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Feb - Aug 5 066 370 0 Total value of imports FOB value (R'000) 15 737.51 834.34 0.00 Value per ton R/Ton 3 106.50 2 254.97 0.00 SORGHUM 1007.90 Exports Quantity (Ton) 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 All years Feb - Aug 13 136 11 892 47 Total value of imports FOB value (R'000) 43 019.47 42 061.23 224.61 Value per ton R/Ton 3 274.93 3 536.93 4 778.94
Sorghum: Co-workers
Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase (Chairperson) Mr Anton Nebe (Vice Chairperson) Sorghum Trust is represented by: Mr John Gordon Mr Anton Nebe Mr Jaap van der Westhuizen (Alternate)
Acknowledgement The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil our commitments: Sorghum Trust Sorghum Forum Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you