Visions of Sustainable Economic Growth: A Transatlantic Dialogue on Energy, Water, and Innovation Washington DC, 11 September 2012 Steady Progress Scenario Bertrand Château
PACT, PASHMINA: two inter-related EU-FP7 research programmes to explore energy transitions up to 2050 PACT: postcarbon transitions Common features: - Analysis - Modelling - EU Visions 2050 Common focus: -City and urbanization -Behaviours & life-styles -Innovation PASHMINA: paradigm shifts 2
3 scenarios for post-carbon transition and related paradigm shifts in the EU Welfare expectations More GDP focussed Business as usual Spacecraft Growth with anticipation of limits Balance wealth / environment More attention to wealth Hardway Smartphone More attention to environment Limits to growth New welfare More «beyond GDP» focussed 3
"Spacecraft" : a steady progress scenario for the EU, established on 3 main foundations Growth, growth, growth!!! No welfare progress without sustained GDP growth Innovation and human capital are the fuels of the GDP growth on the long term Physical limits on climate and natural resources, especially fossils, threaten GDP growth if not anticipated and duly addressed 4
A steady progress scenario driven by top-down forces, with a high consensus at the top High level of consensus worldwide on: Globalization and market as pre-conditions for long term growth Threats due to physical limits must be addressed immediately through timely organized energy and carbon transitions Governments and big stakeholders take the lead of the transitions: Successful governance at world and EU levels of climate and resources issues Adequate and consistent policies in EU member countries to raise human capital and facilitate green innovations Big stakehoders very active in proposing new technologies and services, mostly centralized 5
High level of consensus on threats and how to address them: some examples Commitments on carbon intensity of the GDP : Annex1 countries + major BRICs High level of flexibility & cooperation to reach commitments and embark emerging countries GHG intensity targets include GHG embodied in imports/exports Mechanisms to prevent price shocks & turbulences on oil and gas markets 6
Adequate policies in EU member countries some examples Land use policies to foster post-carbon cities: Urban sprawl to be controlled Priority to small/medium cities, especially if close to big cities Transport policies to address increasing demand for speed, while consistent with post-carbon cities Spatial networking among cities Fast rail infrastructures, regional and long distance Energy efficiency and renewables policies: CO2 taxation combined with Emission Trading System Feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewables Standards for vehicle CO2 emissions, insulation of new buildings,... R&D: batteries, building retrofitting techniques,... 7
Innovation driven by big stakeholders some examples Energy: more electricity, more renewables at consumer levels centralized renewables ( and nuclear?) for electricity generation Smart grids to manage intermittency and peak demand Transport: Electro-mobility, pure electric and plug-in hybrids road vehicles Bio-fuels for remaining ICE, air and sea transport Fast trains to cope with increasing transport speed demand New services for urban mobility in relation to electro-mobility Buildings Passive architecture New technologies for retrofitting 8
The European demographic structure to change deeply by 2050, changing the energy consumption pattern Population: slow growth aging: >75 from 6% to around 13% less active people: 25-75 from 66% to 61% Households: faster increase singles from 28% to 45% reduced average size 800 600 400 200 0 300 200 100 0 Population (Millions) 2000 2025 2050 25-75 >75 <25 Households (Millions) 2000 2025 2050 >2 pers 2 pers 1 pers More singles and two persons households imply more energy intensive life styles for the same income: more m² per person, higher equipment ratios of the population, etc 9
Behaviours and life-styles still driven by income growth and increasing diversity of consumption opportunities self-accomplishment / work time-use ratio Time-use preference: working for money first! Economic outlook: strong increase in GDP/capita despite stable labor hours thanks to high productivity 2,1 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050 Volume of labor hours (index) Labor productivity (index) GDP/capita index 10
Towards a better balance between big connurbations and small/medium cities? Population: 55% of population increase in small/medium cities big connurbations alsmost stabilized BUT Households: 45% new dwellings needed in big connurbations twice more than in small/medium cities Singles and two persons households more attracted by big connurbations, while families with children still attracted by countryside 60 40 20 0-20 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Core cities Core cities Population increase (Millions) 1st ring other cities sparse Households increase (Millions) 1st ring other cities sparse 2025-2050 2000-2025 2025-2050 2000-2025 11
2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050 Mobility still driven by the demand for speed related to GDP growth, daily transport time budget constant Motorization impacted by urbanization households structure 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Cars per '000 hab 2000 2025 2050 core cities 1st ring other cities sparse A major shift in mobility structure and modal split Urban and regional traffics per capita stabilized Long distance traffics explode (X 4) road less and less compatible with speed increase 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Passengers traffics, Gpass-km Urban Regional Long distance Slow modes Other Public air (intra EU) High speed rail Car 12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 New electric technologies for road mobility 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% market shares of technologies in sales of new cars 100% 50% 0% market shares of technologies in the car fleet 2000 2025 2050 Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids ICE Pure electric cars: - second family car, - daily trips Plug-in hybrids: - multipurpose - various concepts 150 100 50 0 car fleet by technology and living areas (millions) core cities 2025 2050 1st ring other cities sparse core cities 1st ring other cities sparse Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids ICE 13
Electricity and road mobility: towards a new paradigm based on centralized renewables 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Electric drive in urban and regional car traffic (% of veh-km) Electric vehicles, regional trips 2025 2050 Electric vehicles, urban trips Plug-in hybrids, regional trips Plug-in hybrids, urban trips 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Car consumption, Mtoe biofuels elec GPL+GNV diesel gasoline 2000 2025 2050 New technology clusters: A: decentralized PV + electromobility + house appliances + local S/D balance B: centralized renewables + smart grids + electromobility + smart/centralized batteries reloading 400 300 200 100 0 Inputs for car electricity, TWh 2025 2050 A B A B A: minimum development of decentralized PV cluster Decentralized PV electricity Wind power and CSP* Other inputs* B: maximum development of decentralized PV cluster 14
Primary energy, EU-27 Primary energy Primary energy, World Gulf Oil production Oil price 15
Electricity mix, EU-27 Power generation Electricity mix, World Solar power, EU27 Wind power, EU27 16
CO2 emissions Carbon constraints 500 ppmv concentration in 2050 for energy CO2 carbon price around 400 US$05/tCO2 in 2050 CO2 emissions per capita CO2 emissions, EU27 CO2 emissions, World 17
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