Philip Schaffner & Jason Junge Minnesota Department of Transportation

Philip Schaffner & Jason Junge Minnesota Department of Transportation

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 9% 33% 9% 21% 29% Trunk Highways $1.3B 14% 16% 19% 33% 17% Greater Minnesota Transit $55.7M 25% 27% 36% Note: The Local Option Sales Tax began collecting revenue in Fiscal Year 2009 and is therefore not represented in these numbers. 6% 6% Twin Cities Area Transit $343.7M Other Local Fares Federal State General Fund Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Vehicle Registration Tax Motor Fuel Tax

$2,000 $1,500 $ millions $1,000 $500 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total MVST Revenue (millions, Year of Collection) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Projection used in Statewide Plan (Developed 2007) Revised Projection (February 2009, MMB) MVST Actual 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Fiscal Year! More money for transportation (particularly transit), buté! Total MVST has been in decline since 2002

$5.00 60 $4.00 58 $3.00 56 $2.00 54 $1.00 Avg. Retail Price of Regular Gasoline in Minnesota 52 Annual Minnesota Vehicle Miles Traveled $0.00 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 50

MN State Gas Tax Paid per Mile Driven $0.030 $0.025 $0.020 $0.015 $0.010 $0.005 $- Gas Tax Paid Per Mile Driven Current Fleet Avg. Obama Administration's Proposed New Fleet Avg. in 2016 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Vehicle Fuel Economy (Miles Per Gallon)

Adoption Curves 100% % of New Vehicle Purchases 75% 50% 25% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 Year S-Shaped Curve Leveling at 100% S-Shaped Curve Leveling at 50%

Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (millions, year of collection) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fuel economy follows 2007 CAFE standards (35 mpg by 2020) Fuel economy increases at rate implied by proposed CAFE standards (35.5 mpg by 2016) PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Revenues from sale of gasoline only Excludes revenues from diesel and other fuels Fleet Grows at 0.8% due to population growth Rate of new vehicle purchases is 5% Tax remains at $0.285/gallon starting 2013 For plug-in hybrids, an average fuel economy of 100 mpg was assumed

Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (millions, year of collection) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fuel economy follows 2007 CAFE standards (35 mpg by 2020) Fuel economy increases at rate implied by proposed CAFE standards (35.5 mpg by 2016) PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Revenues from sale of gasoline only Excludes revenues from diesel and other fuels Fleet Grows at 0.8% due to population growth Rate of new vehicle purchases is 5% Tax remains at $0.285/gallon starting 2013 For plug-in hybrids, an average fuel economy of 100 mpg was assumed

Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (millions, year of collection) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fuel economy follows 2007 CAFE standards (35 mpg by 2020) Fuel economy increases at rate implied by proposed CAFE standards (35.5 mpg by 2016) PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% PHEV adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Revenues from sale of gasoline only Excludes revenues from diesel and other fuels Fleet Grows at 0.8% due to population growth Rate of new vehicle purchases is 5% Tax remains at $0.285/gallon starting 2013 For plug-in hybrids, an average fuel economy of 100 mpg was assumed

Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (millions, year of collection) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fuel economy follows 2007 CAFE standards (35 mpg by 2020) Fuel economy increases at rate implied by proposed CAFE standards (35.5 mpg by 2016) Plug-in hybrid vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 50% Plug-in hybrid vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Electric vehicle adoption rate increases annually before leveling at 100% Revenues from sale of gasoline only Excludes revenues from diesel and other fuels Avg. VMT per vehicle assumed to be constant Rate of new vehicle purchases is 5% Fleet Grows at 0.8% due to population growth For plug-in hybrids, an average fuel economy of 100 mpg was assumed

$800 Scenario A Scenario B Assumptions: Per vehicle VMT flat Revenue (millions) $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 No change in driving patterns as a result of the new fee Fuel economy follows 2007 CAFE standards Gas tax remains at $0.285 beginning 2013 5% rate of new vehicle purchases $100 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (from gasoline only) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (from gasoline only) Fleet grows by 0.8% annually In Scenario B, adoption of PHEVs follows S-shaped curve leveling at 50% VMT Tax Revenue on all new vehicles beginning 2010 VMT Tax Revenue only on Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (Electric and PHEV share of new vehicles increases to 50% in 2030)

! Motor Fuel Excise Tax! Motor Vehicle Sales Tax! Vehicle Registration Fees! General Funds! Local Option Sales Tax! Property Tax! High Occupancy Toll Lanes! Tax Increment Financing! Wheelage Tax! Fares! Advertising

! Indexed Motor Fuel Excise Tax! Motor Fuel Sales Tax! Emission-Based Vehicle Registration Tax

! Mileage-Based Tax! Emission-Adjusted Mileage- Based Tax! Location and/or Time- Adjusted Mileage-Based Tax! Tolling Existing Lanes! Tolling New Lanes! Tolling Based on Congestion Level! Cordon Pricing! Parking Pricing! General Sales Tax! Land Value Tax! Transportation Utility Fee! Cap-and-Trade Revenue

Viability Resilience Policy Impacts Existing Revenue Sources Geographic Scope Revenue Generation Potential Implementation Complexity Public Acceptance Effect of Increase in Fuel Economy Increased Availability of Alternative Modes Extreme Fuel Price Volatility Alleviation of Congestion Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Motor Fuel Excise Tax State!"!"!"!!!!"!" Motor Vehicle Sales Tax State!"!"!"!"!!!"!" Motor Vehicle Registration Tax State!"!"!"!"!!!"!" General Funds (for Transit) State!"!"!"!"!!!"!" Local Option Sales Tax (for Transit) Local!"!"!"!"!"!!"!" Property Taxes Local!"!"!"!"!"!"!"!" HOT Pricing Corridor!"!!"!"!!"!"!" Tax Increment Financing Project!!!"!"!"!"!"!" Wheelage Tax Local!!"!"!"!!!"!" Transit Fare Box Revenue Regional!"!"!"!"!"!"!! Advertising Revenue Local!"!"!"!"!"!"!"!" Key:! = Positive/High! = Neutral! = Negative/Low

Questions? Full Report Available Online at: www.dot.state.mn.us/planning/program/ longrangesolutions.html