Operational Overview Operational Forum, 24 th March 21
Weather
Weather February 21 The cold weather continued throughout February with all but one day being colder than the 17-year seasonal normal CWV. National CWV and 17 Year SNCWV 6 5 4 3 2 1 1/2/1 2/2/1 3/2/1 4/2/1 5/2/1 6/2/1 7/2/1 8/2/1 9/2/1 1/2/1 11/2/1 12/2/1 13/2/1 14/2/1 15/2/1 16/2/1 17/2/1 18/2/1 19/2/1 2/2/1 21/2/1 22/2/1 23/2/1 24/2/1 25/2/1 26/2/1 27/2/1 28/2/1 cwv National CWV 17 Year Seasonal Normal CWV
12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Composite Weather Variables From 1-February-21 to 14-March-21 cwv 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 Actual CWV Actual CWV 9 Normal CWV Cold CWV Warm CWV
Mean Composite Weather Variable Met Office Winter - December to February The Met Office define winter as December to February. On a temperature basis 29/1 was the coldest winter since 1978/9. Using composite weather data, 29/1 was the coldest since 1985/6. Mean National Composite Weather for December to February 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 1962 1946 1939 1978 1928 1941 194 1985 1981 195 29 1984 1955 1964 1995 1935 1968 1933 1969 199 1954 1963 1976 1961 1986 1967 1944 1952 193 1958 1932 1977 1965 1951 1982 1953 1996 28 1983 1957 1937 1938 198 1959 1943 1929 1993 1945 197 196 1979 25 1966 2 1947 1936 1975 22 1931 1991 1971 1949 1972 1992 1987 1973 1956 1999 1948 1942 23 24 1998 21 1994 1934 27 1989 1974 1997 1988 26 degrees CWV Year This year Last year Other years
Demands
Gas Demand Breakdown From 1-February-21 to 12-March-21 5 12 1 4-2 3-4 2 1 Reductions in NDM Demand coinciding with slightly warmer weather. mcm 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 NDM* DM (excl. interconnectors)* Storage Injection Interconnectors Export SND Cold demand Warm demand 8 6 4 2 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 cwv Actual CWV Actual CWV 9 Normal CWV Cold CWV Warm CWV
NTS Industrials and Moffat Exports February 21 Moffat exports continued to exceed forecasts in February. NTS Industrial loads recovered to forecasted levels. 25 Moffat exports 7 NTS Industrial 6 2 5 mcm/d 15 1 mcm/d 4 3 2 5 1 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Model Actual Seasonal normal 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Model Actual Seasonal normal
Power Generation February 21 Over the month, gas generated 45%, coal 35% and nuclear 17% of electricity demand. The remaining 3% spread between pumped storage, hydro, wind and the French interconnector. 12 Power generation gas demand 6 1 5 8 4 mcm/d 6 4 3 2 1 /MWh 2 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb -1 High Seasonal normal Low Spark spread - Dark spread Actual Generation data compiled from half hourly data from http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
Supplies
Gas Supply Breakdown From 1-February-21 to 12-March-21 45 4 35 3 mcm/d 25 2 15 1 IUK switching Flow direction throughout February / early March. 5 1/2/21 6/2/21 11/2/21 16/2/21 21/2/21 26/2/21 3/3/21 8/3/21 SRS Usage coinciding with the start of Norwegian Supply losses. UKCS Norway(est) LNG Imports BBL IUK LRS MRS SRS
Storage Stocks - UK From 1-October-29 to 14-March-21 2.5 SRS Stocks 1 MRS Stocks 9 2 8 7 GWh 1.5 1.5 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / 7 GWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / 7 45 4 35 3 LRS Stocks 9, 8, 7, 6, Total EU Weekly Storage Levels Oct to Sep 28_9 and 29_1 GWh 25 2 15 1 5 GWh 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / 7 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 28_9 29_1 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep
Transporter Actions & Neutrality
Market Liquidity From 1 February 21 to 15 March 21 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Twh 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 15/3/1 Total Gas Traded Total Daily Physical
System Prices From 1 February 21 to 15 March 21 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. p/therm 1/2/21 3/2/21 5/2/21 7/2/21 9/2/21 11/2/21 13/2/21 15/2/21 17/2/21 19/2/21 21/2/21 23/2/21 25/2/21 27/2/21 1/3/21 3/3/21 5/3/21 7/3/21 9/3/21 11/3/21 13/3/21 15/3/21 Genuine SMP Buy price of 47 p/therm on the 1/3/21 SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell
Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM Buys and Sells by Day From 1-February-21 to 15-March-21 16,, 14,, 12,, 6. 1,, 8,, 4. 6,, National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells February 29 to February 21 16,,. 14,,. 12,,. 1,,. 8,,. 6,,. kwh GWh 4,, 2. 2,,. -2,, -2. -4,, -6,, -4. -8,, -1,, -6. -12,, -14,, -8. 4,,. 2,,.. -2,,. -4,,. -6,,. -8,,. -1,,. -12,,. -14,,. kwh -16,, -16,,. -1,. 1/2/1 Feb-9 3/2/1 5/2/1 Mar-9 7/2/1 9/2/1 Apr-9 11/2/1 13/2/1 May-9 15/2/1 Jun-9 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 Jul-9 23/2/1 Aug-9 25/2/1 27/2/1 Sep-9 1/3/1 3/3/1 Oct-9 5/3/1 7/3/1 Nov-9 9/3/1 11/3/1 Dec-9 13/3/1 Jan-1 15/3/1 Feb-1 Buy Sell Last Year Buy Last Year Sell Buy Sell
Days of Default SMP Prices From 1-February-21 to 28-February-21 SMP Buy 82.1% Percentage of Days of Default SMP SMP Sell 82.1% Both 64.3% 9. Days Of Default SMP From January 29 to January 21 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. Both
Transporter Actions on OCM Mechanism Revenues / Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 Quantity (TWh) Average Price (p/kwh) Average Price (p/therm) Cost ( m) System Buy 1.138 1.3255 38.83 15.8 System Sell -1.84 1.366 3.37-18.7 Net Position -.666 Sell - 3.62 1. 5.. - 5. - 1. - 15. System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell
Imbalance Gas Revenues / Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 System Quantity (TWh) Average Price (p/kwh) Average Price (p/therm) Cost m System Buy 4.4.9876 28.94 39.92 System Sell -3.16 1.614 31.1-33.54 Net Position.88 Buy 6.38 4. 3. 2. m 1.. - 1. - 2. System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell
Scheduling Revenues From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 Cost m Input -.45 Output -.35 Total -.8. -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 -.5 -.6 -.7 m Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Input Output
Balancing Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 OCM Imbalance Charge Scheduling Charge m -3.62 6.38 -.8 Balancing Cost 1.96 (.4p/KWh or.125p/therm of Throughput) 15. 1. 5.. - 5. - 1. - 15. OCM Imbalance Sched
Capacity Neutrality Revenues From DSEC & DAI From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 25,. ASEP St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other TOTAL Revenue 194,748.79 5,443.19 6,463.5 2,998.45 158,739.51 132,636.11 93,386.47 612,416.1 2,. 15,. 1,. 5,.. St Fergus Teesside Barow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other
Capacity Neutrality Prompt Buy Backs From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 ASEP Cost No.of days Volume (kwh) St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton TOTAL
Capacity Neutrality Revenues From Overruns From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 Month April 29 May 29 June 29 July 29 August 29 September 29 October 29 November 29 December 29 January 21 Total Revenue - 31,271.1-154,266.59-4,21.89-345,143.81-176,913.79-2,992.58-1,181.58-94,389.8-143.13-3,219.25-813,723.43
Capacity Neutrality Capacity Management Agreement (including RMTTSEC) From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 Month April 29 May 29 June 29 July 29 August 29 September 29 October 29 November 29 December 29 January 21 Total Cost 11,589.17. 21,492........ 33,81.17
Capacity Neutrality Net Cost/Revenue From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 DSEC/DAI Revenue - 612,416.1 Buy back costs +. Capacity Management Agreement + 33,81.17 Overrun Revenue - 813,723.43 Net Revenue - 1,393,58.28