Polyurethanes & Intermediates Tecnon OrbiChem Seminar at KICHEM 212 Seoul - 2 November, 212 Philippa Davies
GLOBAL POLYURETHANE TRENDS MDI TDI Polyols Green polyurethanes Trends and opportunities
POLYURETHANE CHEMICALS CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 5, 21 Total = 15.32 Million Tons 4, 27% 18% 3, 2, 1, 2% 1% 9% 11% 32% North America South America East & West Europe Middle East & Africa North & Southeast Asia China MDI TDI Polyether Polyester Polyols Aliphatic Isocyanates Specialities Additives
WORLD MDI CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 8, 6, 4, Capacity China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe 2, South America North America 25 21 215 22 MDI supply-demand balanced. New capacity may be needed by 22
WORLD MDI DEMAND BY INDUSTRY SECTOR Industrial 5% Textiles 8% Other 7% Construction 45% Furniture & Bedding 6% Footwear 5% Transport 6% Refrigeration 18%
WORLD MDI CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 8, Binders 6, Fibres Elastomers Adhesives & Sealants 4, 2, Coating Flexible Foam Rigid Foam - Refrigeration Rigid Foam - Construction 25 21 215 22 Demand growing at 5.7% per annum
WORLD TDI CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Capacity China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 25 21 215 22 Fundamentally oversupplied, but this could be eased by rationalisation
WORLD TDI DEMAND BY INDUSTRY SECTOR Other 2% Industrial 6% Footwear & Clothing 4% Automotive 11% Furniture & Bedding 77%
WORLD TDI CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 2,5 2, Binders Elastomers Adhesives & Sealants 1,5 1, Coating Flexible Moulded Flexible Slabstock 5 25 21 215 22 Demand growing at 3.4% per annum
TDI & MDI PRICES Dollars per Ton 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, TDI China, EXW USA, DEL W Europe, DEL High toluene prices have kept TDI prices quite high during 212, the tightening of supply this year has helped to restore profitability. 1, 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Dollars per Ton 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, MDI China, EXW USA, DEL W Europe, DEL MDI suppliers have been plagued by a very volatile benzene market which has seen vast swings in price. MDI pricing has moved as suppliers attempted to pass on feedstock increases downstream. 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
UNITED STATES and WEST EUROPE BENZENE PRICES $/Metric Ton 1,6 1,4 United States 1,2 1, West Europe 8 6 4 2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
CHINA - BENZENE PRICE COMPARISON Price Differential Has Shrunk $/Metric Ton 2, 1,5 1, 5 Petrochemical Process Coal Process Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12
WORLD POLYETHER POLYOLS CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Capacity China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 25 21 215 22 World demand growing at 4.7% per annum
WORLD POLYETHER POLYOLS CONSUMPTION 1, Metric Tons 8, 6, CASE Rigid Foam Flexible Foam 4, 2, 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 CASE = Coatings, Adhesives, Sealants, Elastomers
US, WE & ASIA FLEXIBLE POLYETHER POLYOL PRICES $/Ton 3, Asia, EXW USA, DEL 2, W Europe, DEL 1, 29 21 211 212
GAINING ENTRY TO URETHANE CHEMICALS Isocyanates (TDI/MDI) sector difficult to enter, due to complexity of plants, high investment, and reluctance of present producers to license know-how Polyols allow easier entry, both polyether and polyester, due to modest investment, easy licensing, and availability of raw materials Bio-based feedstocks - Polyols/BDO/MPG - are being developed, including natural oil polyols from renewable feedstocks
GREEN POLYURETHANES Increasing investment in biobased polyurethanes - Cargill soy based polyol used largely in flexible foam applications BASF and Purac announce European succinic acid project Croda has launched a bio based polyester polyol for high performance PU elastomers
RECYCLING OPPORTUNITIES Polyester polyols can be made from PET bottle scrap PU foam can be recycled mechanically, producing material for re-use in polymer form (e.g. scrap used as carpet underlay or in packaging) PU foam can also be recycled by chemical means, regenerating polyol substitutes
WHAT NEXT FOR URETHANE CHEMICALS? MDI demand will continue to be driven by insulation and energy efficiency measures although this has been moderated by the economic slow-down Steady growth for refrigeration & bedding/furniture in emerging economies such as India, Turkey, Russia, Brazil, China and parts of Africa continues to fuel TDI growth. The TDI market is oversupplied, globally, but major producers are taking steps to close down older less efficient plants, and to build larger scale more economical plants using the latest technology. PU foam demand will be driven by requirements for lighter weight and greater comfort in the automotive sector
CONCLUSIONS Supply & demand are balanced-to-long for the key PU raw materials, except for MDI, where new capacity will be needed around 22 -- a possible opportunity for Asian producers Proprietary technology is a barrier to entry into isocyanates Entry is easier for conventional polyether polyols, but there is over-capacity Bio-based technology for polyols is emerging as a significant factor; this is a potential entry point for new producers in Asia
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