CHARTS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS

CHARTS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS

18 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook Average Annual GDP Growth Percent Change 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 26-216 Canada China EU NMS EU- India Japan Latin America Mexico Middle East South Korea U.S. Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth (local currency per U.S. dollar) Percent Change 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 26-216 Argentina Brazil EU- 3 largest EU NMS Japan China Australia New Zealand Thailand India Canada Mexico

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 19 U.S. Direct Payment Rates Dollars per Bushel.6..4.3.2.1. 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Wheat Corn Soybeans U.S. Crop Target Prices Dollars per Bushel 6.. 4. 3. 2. 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Wheat Corn Soybeans

2 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Crop Planted Area Million Acres 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Wheat Corn Soybeans U.S. Crop Exports Billion Bushels 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Wheat Corn Soybeans

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 21 U.S. Crop Prices Dollars per Bushel 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Wheat Corn Soybeans U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance 2 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Corn Corn By-Products Other Grains Oilseed Meals

22 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Ethanol Production and Renewable Fuel Mandate Billion Gallons 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Ethanol Production Renewable Fuel Mandate U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices Index, 199-1992=1 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Fertilizer Fuel

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 23 U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices Dollars per cwt 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Barrows and Gilts, Nat'l Base* * National Base 1-2% Lean Equivalent NB Direct Fed Steers U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices Cents per Pound 8 7 7 6 6 4 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 12-City Broiler Eastern Region Turkey

24 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Livestock Production Billion Pounds 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Beef Pork Broilers U.S. Meat Net Exports Billion Pounds 8 6 4 2-2 -4 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Beef Pork Broilers

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 2 U.S. Milk Production Billion Pounds 21 2 19 18 17 16 14 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 U.S. Milk Prices Dollars per cwt 17 16 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Class III Class IV All Milk Support

26 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Land Use Million Acres 4 3 3 2 2 1 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 13 Crop Planted Area Hay Harvested Area CRP Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 4 3 3 2 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Net CCC Outlays NRCS Conservation Crop Insurance

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 27 U.S. Farm Income Billion Dollars 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Net Cash Net Farm Real NFI (1997$) U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food Percent * 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 * Percentage increase in CPI for food vs. previous year.

28 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton 2 Percent 4 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio World Wheat Area Harvested, Production, and Consumption 8 Million Hectares 23 7 23 6 22 22 4 2 3 21 2 2 1 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Production Consumption Area 19

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 29 World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share 12 Percent 4 1 3 3 8 2 6 2 4 1 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Net Trade U.S. Market Share Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Africa and Middle East Asia Latin America

3 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton 4 Percent 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade Stocks-to-Use Ratio World Rice Net Exports Thousand Metric Tons 3, 2, 2,, 1,, 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 India Pakistan Thailand U.S. Vietnam

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 31 World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 12 14 1 12 8 6 4 1 8 6 4 2 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Production Consumption Net Trade World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton 18 16 14 12 1 Percent 3 3 2 2 8 6 4 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio

32 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share 12 1 8 6 4 2 Percent 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Net Trade U.S. Market Share World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices 2 U.S. Dollar per Metric Ton 18 16 2 1 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Barley Net Trade Sorghum Net Trade Barley Price (Canada Feed FOB) Sorghum Price (FOB Gulf)

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 33 World Soybean Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 12 Dollars per Metric Ton 3 1 8 6 4 2 3 2 2 1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Argentina Brazil China U.S. Other Soybean Price, Rotterdam World Soybean Trade 12 8 4-4 -8-12 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 U.S. Argentina Brazil Other Exports EU-2 China Japan Other Imports

34 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Soybean Crush 3 2 2 1 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina Brazil China EU-2 India Japan U.S. Other World Soybean Meal Trade 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 U.S. Argentina Brazil Other Exports EU-2 South Korea Japan Other Imports

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 3 World Soybean Oil Trade 1 - -1-1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina Brazil EU-2 U.S. Other Exports China India South Korea Other Imports Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries Kilograms per Person 3 3 2 2 1 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 China India Japan U.S. EU-2 Taiwan Brazil

36 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 3 3 2 2 1 Dollars per Metric Ton 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Australia Canada China EU-2 India Other Rapeseed Price, Hamburg World Rapeseed Trade 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Australia Canada Other Exports China EU-2 Japan Other Imports

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 37 World Rapeseed Meal Utilization 3 3 2 2 1 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 China Canada EU-2 India Japan Others World Rapeseed Oil Trade 2.4 1.6.8. -.8-1.6-2.4 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Australia Canada Other Exports China EU-2 U.S. Other Imports

38 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 3 Dollars per Metric Ton 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina China EU-2 CIS Other Sunflower Price, CIF Lower Rhine World Sunflower Trade 3 2 1-1 -2-3 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina CIS Other Exports EU-2 Other Imports

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 39 World Sunflower Meal Trade 6 4 2-2 -4-6 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina CIS U.S. Other Exports EU-2 Other Imports World Sunflower Oil Trade 6 4 2-2 -4-6 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Argentina CIS Other Exports EU-2 Other Imports

4 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook World Palm Oil Trade and Price 4 3 - -3 Dollars per Metric Ton 8 7 6 4 3 2 1-4 1999/ 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 2/16 Indonesia Malaysia Other Exports China EU-2 India Other Imports Palm Oil Price, CIF Rotterdam World Peanut Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 2 Dollars per Metric Ton 1,2 2 1, 8 6 1 4 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Argentina China India U.S. Other Peanut Price, US Runners 4/, CIF Rotterdam

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 41 World Cotton Consumption Thousand Metric Tons 3, 3, 2, 2,, 1,, 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Africa Asia CIS Latin America N. America ROW World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Pound.9.8.7.6..4.3.2.1 Percent 7 6 4 3 2 1. 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 A-Index Stocks-to-Use

42 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price 4 3 3 2 2 1 - Dollars per Metric Ton 4 3 3 2 2 1-1 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Australia Brazil EU-2 India Thailand FOB Caribbean Price Major Sugar Net Importers 12 1 8 6 4 2 1996/97 1998/99 2/1 22/3 24/ 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/ 216/17 Indonesia Japan Russia and Ukraine South Korea United States

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 43 World Meat Production and Trade 3 Thousand Metric Tons 8, 2 7, 6, 2, 4, 1 3, 2, 1, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Beef Production Pork Production Poultry Production Beef Trade (tmt) Pork Trade (tmt) Poultry Trade (tmt) Per Capita Meat Consumption Kilograms per Person 3 3 2 2 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Beef Pork Poultry

44 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook Major Beef Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 China Japan Russia Mexico South Korea Egypt Philippines Beef Export Market Share* Percent 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 Australia Brazil New Zealand India Argentina Canada * Based on net exports. 22/26 27/211 212/216

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 4 Major Pork Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - -1, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 China Japan Russia Hong Kong Mexico Philippines Pork Export Market Share* Percent 3 3 2 2 1 EU Canada U.S. Brazil * Based on net exports. 22/26 27/211 212/216

46 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook Major Broiler Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 China Japan Russia Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico Broiler Export Market Share* Percent 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 U.S. Brazil EU-2 Thailand * Based on net exports. 22/26 27/211 212/216

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 47 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Australia EU-2 New Zealand Other Exports Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other Imports Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1, 1, - -1, -1, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Australia Argentina EU-2 New Zealand Ukraine Other Exports Japan Russia United States Other Imports

48 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook NFD Trade for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1, 1, - -1, -1, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Australia EU-2 New Zealand U.S. Other Exports Indonesia Mexico Philippines Thailand Other Imports WMP Trade for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 2, 1, 1, - -1, -1, -2, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Argentina Australia EU-2 New Zealand Other Exports Algeria Asia Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other Imports

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 49 Commodity Price Projections 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/ /16 16/17 Wheat U.S. FOB Gulf Canadian Wheat Board AWB Limited Export Quote European Union Market Rice FOB U.S. Houston FOB Bangkok % Broken FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade Corn FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Barley Canada Feed Sorghum FOB U.S. Gulf Soybeans Illinois Processor CIF Rotterdam Soybean Meal FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam Soybean Oil FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam Rapeseed CIF Hamburg Cash Vancouver Rapeseed Meal FOB Hamburg Rapeseed Oil FOB Hamburg Sunflower CIF Lower Rhine Sunflower Meal CIF Rotterdam Sunflower Oil FOB NW Europe Palm Oil CIF Rotterdam Palm Kernel Meal CIF Rotterdam Palm Kernel Oil CIF Rotterdam (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 28 21 199 21 23 23 24 24 23 24 24 18 18 178 18 181 182 183 182 182 182 183 22 22 218 22 221 222 223 222 222 222 223 18 183 187 193 186 179 176 173 173 174 17 429 391 384 377 39 48 399 47 419 433 436 39 276 269 287 299 32 314 32 32 321 321 321 287 28 296 37 311 323 329 329 33 331 9 163 163 163 162 161 9 6 3 2 181 194 19 19 194 193 191 188 186 184 182 128 131 127 128 128 129 129 128 129 13 131 164 9 16 161 161 161 161 16 16 16 16 23 26 268 267 263 261 28 2 21 248 24 288 3 318 318 314 31 37 31 296 292 288 198 26 2 21 196 194 191 187 181 176 171 22 234 232 227 222 22 217 212 26 2 194 6 672 727 74 746 744 743 74 71 79 767 64 721 779 798 799 796 79 798 84 813 82 31 37 382 371 38 346 337 33 323 318 311 322 33 34 33 324 314 36 299 293 288 282 149 14 142 142 14 14 14 136 133 13 126 832 93 94 918 891 862 847 843 846 81 8 327 36 39 37 347 341 333 326 319 313 36 128 133 131 128 12 124 122 12 117 1 113 694 76 79 82 86 81 81 814 819 824 828 74 6 62 637 649 69 671 68 72 721 739 117 117 119 118 114 11 16 12 98 94 89 643 677 692 691 692 694 71 711 723 74 762

/ Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook Commodity Price Projections (continued) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Peanut, U.S. Runners 4/ CIF Rotterdam Peanut Meal 48/%, Southeast Mills FOB Peanut Oil CIF Rotterdam Sugar FOB Caribbean (raw) New York Spot (raw) Cotton Cotlook A Index U.S. Farm (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1, 1,7 1,1 1,2 998 991 983 97 966 98 9 131 123 121 122 122 122 122 12 119 117 116 1,9 1,12 1,148 1,146 1,3 1,7 1,16 1,169 1,178 1,19 1,23 262 229 2 263 26 269 274 278 283 288 293 43 14 3 497 489 484 47 474 46 466 1,344 1,4 1,43 1,69 1,93 1,98 1,612 1,617 1,621 1,637 1,64 1,61 1,142 1,221 1,2 1,266 1,273 1,283 1,288 1,296 1,311 1,323 Beef Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer U.S. Retail Steer Price, Alberta Australian Export (CIF U.S.) 1,883 1,887 1,894 1,86 1,816 1,817 1,832 1,87 1,88 1,98 1,917 8,762 8,98 9,93 9,88 9,66 9,18 9,339 9,4 9,69 9,9 9,927 1,72 1,726 1,729 1,694 1,649 1,6 1,66 1,691 1,713 1,741 1,749 2,49 2,48 2,48 2,469 2,4 2,4 2,46 2,467 2,476 2,488 2,491 Japanese Farm Dairy beef Wagyu beef Pork Barrows and Gilts National Base 1-2% Lean Equivalent U.S. Retail Ontario Hogs Index Japanese Wholesale Chicken U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail EU Producer Japanese Wholesale 8,394 9,612 1,34 1,83 11,26 11,38 11,787 11,99 12,21 12,41 12,74 18,68 16,477 17,28 17,8 18,24 18,797 19,142 19,299 19,438 19,3 19,47 1,42 1,2 98 1,9 1,134 1,189 1,124 1,3 1,42 1,88 1,18 6,19 6,19 6,183 6,42 6,673 6,84 6,831 6,816 6,949 7,119 7,243 1,111 1,8 1,22 1,128 1,23 1,3 1,2 1,88 1,14 1,166 1,191 4,182 4,342 4, 4,814,26,7,24 4,813 4,824 4,94 4,97 1,42 1,497 1,26 1,49 1,3 1,6 1,9 1,6 1,69 1,74 1,79 3,466 3,634 3,78 3,86 3,927 4, 4,64 4,123 4,181 4,238 4,283 1,726 1,993 2,8 2,17 2,38 1,991 1,974 1,984 2,7 2,33 2,62 1,84 1,966 2,77 2, 2,24 2,247 2,281 2,312 2,34 2,368 2,392 Turkey U.S. Wholesale U.S. Retail 1,698 1,649 1,66 1,682 1,69 1,74 1,714 1,717 1,719 1,721 1,723 2,447 2,44 2,487 2, 2,63 2,643 2,674 2,698 2,722 2,746 2,77

Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 27 Agricultural Outlook / 1 Commodity Price Projections (continued) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Milk U.S. All Milk Canadian Fluid Milk Australian Average Milk Cheese FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Canadian Wholesale Australian Export Butter FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export Nonfat Dry Milk FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export Whole Milk Powder FOB Northern Europe Australian Export (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 28 313 314 3 316 32 32 318 318 316 32 62 623 639 647 63 67 661 662 666 673 68 237 2 261 26 26 264 262 262 264 266 27 2,76 2,986 3,81 3,133 3,123 3,111 3, 3,111 3,139 3,181 3,226 2,73 2,973 3,1 3, 3,42 3,74 3,71 3,61 3,9 3,48 3,84 8,686 8,74 9,1 9,2 9,361 9,13 9,647 9,747 9,897 1,81 1,286 2,682 2,939 3,26 3,73 3,64 3,4 3,48 3,3 3,79 3,118 3,9 1,912 2,18 2,144 2,17 2,16 2,168 2,169 2,183 2,21 2,247 2,29 2,726 2,6 2,723 2,66 2,66 2,811 2,924 2,97 2,978 2,933 2,996 1,773 2,2 2,44 2,79 2,68 2,72 2,72 2,89 2,121 2,163 2,22 2,14 2,66 2,7 2,617 2,632 2,611 2,72 2,8 2,7 2,8 2,94 2,262 2,64 2,2 2,81 2,81 2,43 2,488 2,48 2,44 2,42 2,443 2,21 2,298 2,264 2,39 2,323 2,33 2,266 2,22 2,21 2,22 2,287 2,336 2,499 2,4 2,69 2,62 2,77 2,47 2,3 2,47 2,69 2,622 2,187 2,331 2,379 2,428 2,422 2,4 2,374 2,38 2,374 2,393 2,439