A Presentation to: Project Advisory Group Meeting #10 October 21, 2015
Agenda Introductions Action Items From Last PAG Meeting (August 26, 2015) Recent Agency Involvement Update on Refined Alternative Analysis Sample Concept Plans Revised Station Locations Refined Capital and O&M Cost Estimates Update on Ridership Projections Review of Public Meetings Content Discussion Next Steps 2
Action Items From Last PAG Meeting (August 26, 2015) Proceed to the ridership projections Additional meetings with Volusia County and cities regarding station locations 3
Recent Agency Involvement Meetings with County and Cities to review proposed rail and BRT stations Meeting with Votran to review proposed feeder bus network 4
5 Update on Refined Alternatives
BRT Route Configuration Business Access and Transit (BAT) Lane 6-lane and 8-lane sections Taylor Rd to Beresford Rd: roadway widening to create 6 lanes (median transitway option) Mixed Traffic 2-lane and 4-lane sections 6
Rail Route Configuration Separate ROW SunRail Phase 2 North to S.R. 472 I-95 to Williamson Blvd Roadway Median or Side of Road Location S.R. 472 and U.S. 92 Roadway Median Location I-4 Side of Road Location Midway Ave 7
8 Sample Concept Plans
9 Sample Rail Alignment Plan
10 Sample BRT Alignment Plan
11 Sample Station Concept Plan
12 Revised Station Locations
BRT Station Footprint BRT Station 10 Platform 70 13
BRT Station Locations Roadway Station Location Attractions Served Access Modes DeBary SunRail Station DeBary/Deltona Access Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride Highbanks Rd Local Shopping Walk in U.S. 17/92 Saxon Blvd or Enterprise Rd DeBary/Deltona Access Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride @ Enterprise Rd Graves Rd Orange City (City Facilities) Walk in Orange Camp Rd West Volusia Shopping Center /Lake Helen Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride Taylor Rd (S.R. 15) South DeLand Walk in/local Bus DeLand Intermodal Facility Bus Transfer Facility Walk in/local Bus Rich Ave Rich Ave Downtown DeLand Walk in/local Bus U.S. 17/92 Minnesota Ave or Pennsylvania Ave Stetson University Walk in S.R. 44 Spring Garden Ave West DeLand Walk in/local Bus U.S. 17/92 or Amelia Ave North DeLand/ DeLeon Springs Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride LPGA Blvd New Development West of I 95 Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride U.S. 92 Tomoka Farms Rd New Development West of I 96 Walk in/local Bus Williamson Blvd or Fentress Rd One Daytona Walk in/local Bus Bill France Blvd Speedway/ Volusia Mall Walk in/local Bus Midway Ave New Intermodal Facility Speedway/ Airport Walk in/local Bus/Rail Clyde Morris Blvd Halifax Medical Center Walk in/local Bus U.S. 92 White St Daytona State College Walk in/local Bus Lincoln St Bethune Cookman University Walk in/local Bus Mary McLeod Bethune Blvd Votran Downtown Transfer Facility Bus Transfer Facility /Downtown Daytona Beach Walk in/local Bus 14 BRT Station screened out
Station Footprint Rail Station Side Platform 15 25 Platform Rail Tracks Platform 400 15
Rail Station Locations Roadway Station Location Attractions Served Access Modes U.S. 17/92 DeBary SunRail Station DeBary/Deltona Access Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride I 4 I 4/S.R. 472 Deltona Access/New Development Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride I 4/S.R. 44 New East DeLand/New Smyrna Beach Access Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride U.S. 92 LPGA Blvd New Development West of I 95 Walk in/local Bus/Park n Ride Midway Ave New Intermodal Facility Speedway/ Airport Walk in/local Bus 16
Refined Capital and O&M Cost Estimates 17
Capital Costs Assumptions Alternative #4 BRT Alternative #5 Rail Guideway costs for BAT Lanes assumed costs for striping only Estimate is based on U.S. 92 alignment and selection of Site D as the preferred Intermodal Station in Daytona Beach Do not include station costs at: Options were developed for: Existing DeBary SunRail Station S.R. 472 side running DeLand Intermodal Station U.S. 92 side running / under grade through the Future DeLand SunRail Station I 95 interchange Costs are shown in current year (2015) dollars Costs are shown in current year (2015) dollars I 4 is assumed to have sufficient width for the rail guideway BRT is assumed to operate on existing roadways and median stations Costs have been updated and are based on estimates for major FTA SCC work elements Costs are included for contingency and professional services on percentage basis Right of way costs are not yet available and are being developed by FDOT Costs have been updated and are based on estimates for major FTA SCC work elements Costs are included for contingency and professional services on percentage basis Right of way costs are not yet available and are being developed by FDOT 18
Refined Capital Cost Estimates in Millions Alternative # 5 Rail * FTA SCC Description Alternative #4 BRT * S.R. 472 I 95 Baseline Alt Undercrossing 10 Guideway & Track Elements $0.7 $331.0 $329.1 $477.1 20 Stations, Stops, Terminals, Intermodal $6.5 $25.1 $25.1 $25.1 30 Support Facilities: Yards, Shops, Admin. Bldgs $0.0 $19.1 $19.1 $19.1 40 Sitework & Special Conditions $8.0 $144.3 $151.2 $138.4 50 Systems: Control Signals, Communications, Fare Collection $2.0 $159.4 $159.4 $159.4 60 ROW, Land, Existing Improvements** TBD TBD TBD TBD 70 Vehicles*** $32.0 $51.0 $51.0 $51.0 80 Professional Services $6.1 $217.2 $218.9 $262.1 90 Unallocated Contingency $0.4 $67.9 $68.4 $81.9 Total $55.8 $1,015.1 $1,022.2 $1,214.1 *Cost estimates in 2015 dollars ** To be determined ROW costs are currently being developed by FDOT *** Vehicle cost include feeder bus service vehicle cost 19 FTA match (if eligible) 20% - 50%
O&M Costs Assumptions Alternative #4 - BRT $81.29 per revenue vehicle hour from FY14 NTD* escalated to 2015$ Two BRT routes: Route 1: Daytona Beach - Votran Transfer Plaza to DeBary SunRail Station Route 2: Daytona Beach - Votran Transfer Plaza to DeLand SunRail Station Service Frequency Route 1: 30 min, 14 hrs/day, 7 days/week Route 2: 30 min, weekday peak periods only Feeder bus costs from FY14 NTD* escalated to 2015$ - $81.29 per revenue vehicle hour Feeder bus service - 30 min frequency Alternative #5 - Rail $1,494 per revenue car hour - from SunRail Phase I escalated to 2015$ Main service from DeBary to Daytona Beach - Site D Intermodal Service Frequency: Same as SunRail Feeder bus costs from FY14 NTD* escalated to 2015$ - $81.29 per revenue vehicle hour Feeder bus service - 30 min frequency peak to tie to SunRail * NTD: National Transit Database 20
Refined O&M Cost Estimates in Millions Alternative Service Frequency Annual Service Hours No. of Vehicles /Train Sets Required Annual O&M Cost** Feeder Bus Cost* Total O&M Cost** Alternative #4 30 min, 14 hrs/day, 53,000 18 $4.3 Route 1 7 days/week $11.5 Alternative #4 30 min, weekday 7,600 5 $0.6 Route 2 peak Total BRT 60,600 23 $4.9 $11.5 $16.4 Alternative #5 Same as SunRail 10,600 $16.8 Main Line 5 $8.5 Alternative #5 Same as SunRail 5,400 $8.6 Shuttle Rail Total 16,000 5 $25.4 $8.5 $34.0 *Feeder bus costs do not include costs for proposed TDP service improvements **Cost estimates in 2015 dollars 21
Preliminary Ridership Projections 22
Forecasting Methodology Use of Central Florida Regional Planning Model (CFRPM) Use of FTA s Simplified Trips On Project Software (STOPS) FTA New/Small Starts Evaluation Criteria Project Justification and Local Financial Commitment 23
Forecasting Methodology CFRPM/STOPS Details Updated socioeconomic data to reflect what is in the 2040 LRTP Updated transit networks to reflect 2015 LYNX and Votran systems SunRail Phase 2 North and South included as part of the No Build 24
FTA New/Small Starts Evaluation Criteria Final rule enacted April 2013. Updated reporting instructions August 2015 Project evaluation can be done using current year forecasts, or an average of current year and horizon year forecasts Project ratings are among most rigorous ratings in government, and important to Congress and local communities 25
Major Ratings Overall, Project Justification, and Local Financial Commitment Overall is an average of project justification and financial commitment Each can be High, Medium-High, Medium, Medium- Low, or Low Medium overall rating requires at least: Medium project justification rating, and Medium local financial commitment 26
Project Justification Rating Un-weighted average of 6 categories: Mobility Cost-effectiveness Congestion relief Environmental benefits Land use Economic development 27
Project Justification Criteria Evaluated to Date Mobility: Weighted linked trips on the project (2 x transit-dependent trips)+(non-transit-dependent trips) Cost effectiveness: Annualized federal capital share per trip on the project Congestion relief: New daily linked trips in the region Environmental benefits: Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 28
Alternative 4 - BRT Weekday Transit Trips on the Project Trip Purpose 2015 Existing Year 2040 Horizon Year Total Weekday 1,400 2,050 Transit dependent Trips* 325 450 Regional Linked Trips** 2,050 2,925 Change in VMT*** (9,300) (14,075) Source: FTA STOPS model *Transit dependent Trips: Transit trips made by persons from zero car households **Regional Linked Trips: New linked (origin to destination) transit trips throughout the region ***Change in VMT: The change in the number of miles traveled by vehicles as a result of people using the project Mobility average weighted trips = 2,113 - Annualized = 638,000 average weighted linked project trips - Mobility criteria: 16,550 average daily weighted linked trips to achieve a medium rating Congestion Relief = 2,490 average daily new weekday linked trips 29
50 45 Alternative 4 - BRT Small Starts Mobility Breakpoints 30 Annual Trips on Project (millions) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 15 29.9 5 14.9 2.5 4.9 <2.5 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Alt #4 0.638 Small Starts Mobility Ratings 30 Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Mobility Improvements Low *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA Small Starts Guidance Medium Low: requires 2.5 million weighted annual trips on project (1.86 million more) Medium: requires 5.0 million weighted annual trips
Alternative 4 - BRT 7 Small Starts Cost Effectiveness Breakpoints > $5 Annualized Federal Capital Share per Trip on Project 6 5 4 3 2 1 $4.00 $5.00 $2.00 $3.99 $1.01 $1.99 < $1.00 Alt #4 $3.57 0 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Small Starts Cost Effectiveness Ratings Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Cost effectiveness Medium Medium High: requires between $1.01 and $1.99 ($0.77 million less federal $ or 524,000 more annual linked trips) 31 *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA Small Starts Guidance
Alternative 4 - BRT Small Starts Congestion Relief Breakpoints 26 > 18 24 Region wide Daily Transit Trips (x1,000) 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 18 2.5 10 0.5 2.5 < 0.5 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Alt #4 2.49 Small Starts Congestion Relief Ratings Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Congestion Relief Medium Low Medium: requires 2,500 new region wide daily transit trips (10 more) Medium High: requires 10,000 new region wide daily transit trips (7,510 more) 32 *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA Small Starts Guidance
Alternative 4 - BRT Small Starts Environmental Benefit Breakpoints 20 > 10% Percent of Value of Benefits by Annualized Costs 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Low < 10% 5% 10% 0% 5% Medium Low Medium Medium High High 10% 0% Small Starts Environmental Benefit Ratings Alt #4 ( 85.1%) Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Environmental Benefits Low Medium Low: 10 to 0% (additional 18,300 decrease in daily VMT) Medium: requires 0 to 5% 33 *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA Small Starts Guidance
Alternative 5 - Rail Weekday Transit Trips on the Project Trip Purpose 2015 Existing Year 2040 Horizon Year Total Weekday 475 725 Transit dependent Trips* 75 100 Regional Linked Trips** 2,300 3,150 Change in VMT*** (14,900) (21,075) Source: FTA STOPS model *Transit dependent Trips: Transit trips made by persons from zero car households **Regional Linked Trips: New linked (origin to destination) transit trips throughout the region ***Change in VMT: The change in the number of miles traveled by vehicles as a result of people using the project Mobility average weighted trips = 688 - Annualized = 172,000 average weighted linked project trips - Mobility criteria: 20,000 average daily weighted trips to achieve medium rating Congestion Relief = 2,725 average daily new weekday linked trips 34
50 45 Alternative 5 - Rail New Starts Mobility Breakpoints 30 Annual Trips on Project (millions) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 15 29.9 5 14.9 2.5 4.9 <2.5 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Alt #5 0.17 New Starts Mobility Ratings 35 Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Mobility Improvements Low *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA New Starts Guidance Medium Low: requires 2.5 million weighted annual trips on project (2.33 million more) Medium: requires 5 million weighted annual trips on project
Alternative 5 - Rail 500 > $15.00 New Starts Cost Effectiveness Breakpoints Annualized Federal Capital Share per Trip on Project 400 300 200 100 0 $10.00 $14.99 $6.00 $9.99 $4.00 $5.99 < $4.00 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High New Starts Cost Effectiveness Ratings Alt #5 $431 36 Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Cost effectiveness Low *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA New Starts Guidance Medium Low: requires between $10 and $15 ($25.3 mil less federal $ or 1.7 mil more annual linked trips) Medium: requires between $6 and $9.99
Alternative 5 - Rail New Starts Congestion Relief Breakpoints 26 > 18 24 Region wide Daily Transit Trips (x1,000) 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 18 2.5 10 0.5 2.5 < 0.5 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Alt #5 2.7 New Starts Congestion Relief Ratings Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Congestion Relief Medium Medium High: requires 10,000 new region wide daily transit trips (7,275 more) 37 *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA New Starts Guidance
20 Alternative 5 - Rail New Starts Environmental Benefit Breakpoints > 10% Percent of Value of Benefits by Annualized Costs 10 0 10 Low < 10% Medium Low 10% 0% 0% 5% 5% 10% Medium Medium High High Alt #5 ( 1.3%) 20 New Starts Environmental Benefit Ratings Category Current Rating To Achieve Higher Rating(s) Environmental Benefits Medium Low Medium: requires 0 5% (additional 12,500 decrease in daily VMT) 38 *Source: FTA STOPS model FTA New Starts Guidance
Review of Public Meetings Content 39
Public Meeting Content Registration Table Sign-in sheets Questionnaires and comment cards Newsletter #3 Presentation (15 min) General overall description of the study Refinement process Refined alternatives overview Next steps Guidance on the various stations 10 15 min of Q&A at the end General Information Station Schedule Study Area Modes Markets Study Process Station Purpose and Need boards Goals, objectives and measures Alternative refinement matrix board Refined Alternatives Station Alternative 4 description Alternative 5 description Capital costs / O&M costs matrix Travel time comparison / Preliminary ridership projections Resource Table Alternative maps Other resource materials 40
Public Meeting Notices 41 November 9, 2015 Bergengren Building #110 Daytona State College November 10, 2015 Sanborn Activity Center, DeLand November 12, 2015 Deltona City Hall, Commission Chambers Public Notices, E-mails, Ads Elected Officials: October 9 th Appointed Officials: October 12 th Citizens/Others: October 12 th Newspaper Ads: News Journal (Oct. 15 th and 29 th ) W. Volusia Beacon (Oct. 15 th and 29 th ) Sanford Herald (Oct. 18 th and Nov. 1 st ) La Prensa (Oct. 15 th and 29 th ) Florida Administrative Register
42 Next Steps
Next Steps November public meetings Complete refined alternatives evaluation Overall alternatives comparison FTA rating assessment Develop and evaluate recommended alternative Financial feasibility analysis Implementation strategy Elected official briefings www.volusiaconnectorstudy.com 43
General Discussion/Questions