NZPork Monthly Import Report

NZPork Monthly Import Report IW Barugh and EJ Neumann December 10, 2017 1 Data summary for October 2017 Data from January 2000 through October 2017 was downloaded from the Statistics NZ website (http://www.stats.govt. nz/). To generate this report, the data was subsequently filtered to only include data from January 2000 through October 2017. 1.1 Volume The total volume of pork imported to New Zealand in October 2017 was 3,314 tonne ( 4,636 tonne CWE), down 25.98% from last month and up by 1.63% from the same month last year. Monthly Pork Imports (NZPork Fiscal Year, 2013 to Current) 7,000 6,500 Import quantity CWE (MT) 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 November October December January February March April May June July August September NZPork fiscal year (October September) Fiscal year (FY) FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 1.2 Prices The value of pork imported to New Zealand in October 2017 was $ 17.1 million NZD CIF which equated to $5.16/kg. The average value of imports this month on a per kg basis was 13.64% higher than last month and 27.01% higher than the same month last year. 1

1.3 Form In October 2017, FROZEN pork valued at $ 4.7/kg accounted for 94.67% of the total volume of pork imports. Form of Pig Meat Imports, 2013 to Present 100% 75% Proportion of Imported product 50% 25% 0% 2015 Jun 2015 Mar 2014 Dec 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2014 Mar 2013 Dec 2013 Sep 2013 Jun 2013 Mar 2012 Dec 2017 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 Jun 2017 Mar 2016 Dec 2016 Sep 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2015 Dec 2015 Sep Form of product CURED PROCESSED CHILLED FROZEN Pork form CIF (NZD) KGs imported NZD per KG Percent of total volume FROZEN $14,760,973 3,137,682 $4.70 94.7% CHILLED $ 118,747 23,057 $5.15 0.7% PROCESSED $ 1,593,185 86,572 $18.40 2.6% CURED $ 626,892 67,126 $9.34 2.0% TOTAL $17,099,797 3,314,437 $5.16 100.0% Table 1: Relative supply and price of imported pork by pork form, October 2017 2

1.4 Countries Pork (weight in actual kgs) imported into New Zealand during October 2017 came from 22 different countries: 5,500 Country Percentage Number of countries Canada 24.2% 1 Spain 18.1% 1 United States of America 16.1% 1 Australia 10.5% 1 Finland 7.3% 1 Sweden 5.3% 1 Denmark 3.6% 1 Germany 3.6% 1 All OTHERS 11.3% 14 Table 2: Relative supply of imported pork by country October 2017 Origin of Pig Meat Imports, 2013 to Present 5,000 4,500 4,000 Import quantity (MT) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2013 Dec 2013 Sep 2013 Jun 2013 Mar 2012 Dec 2015 Mar 2014 Dec 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2014 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2015 Dec 2015 Sep 2015 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Jun 2017 Mar 2016 Dec 2016 Sep 2017 Dec Country of origin All OTHERS Spain Germany Sweden Finland Denmark United States of America Canada Australia 3

1.5 Chilled product The amount of chilled product (weight in actual kgs) that entered New Zealand during October 2017 is shown in the figure below. The black line on the graph represents the linear trend of chilled import volumes (95% confidence limit shown by the pale red shading). 110,000 100,000 90,000 Chilled Pork Imported per Month, 2013 to Present Import quantity (kg) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2015 Sep 2015 Jun 2015 Mar 2014 Dec 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2014 Mar 2016 Sep 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2015 Dec 2017 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 Jun 2017 Mar 2016 Dec CHILLED Chilled Pork Imported per Month, by Country of Origin, 2013 to Present 90,000 Import quantity (kg) 60,000 30,000 0 2015 Mar 2014 Dec 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2014 Mar 2015 Dec 2015 Sep 2015 Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Sep 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2017 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 Jun 2017 Mar Country of origin All OTHERS Spain Sweden Finland United States of America Canada Australia 4

1.6 Volume and cost per kg of imported product (actual kgs, NZD) NZD per kg $30 $20 $10 $0 $30 $20 $10 $0 $30 $20 $10 $0 $30 $20 $10 $0 CIF per kg imported (actual), October 2017 $5.15 $16.84 $7.94 $6.93 $7.81 $5.73 $7.62 $3.92 $3.65 $5.17 $6.07 $5.36 $4.81 $4.11 $21.10 $15.10 $8.89 Australia All OTHERS Denmark Canada Germany Finland Sweden Spain CHILLED CURED FROZEN PROCESSED United States of America Tonnes imported 800 T 600 T 400 T 200 T 0 T 800 T 600 T 400 T 200 T 0 T 800 T 600 T 400 T 200 T 0 T 800 T 600 T 400 T 200 T 0 T Total kg imported (actual), October 2017 Denmark Canada Australia All OTHERS Finland Germany Spain Sweden CHILLED CURED FROZEN PROCESSED United States of America 5

The table below shows the actual price per kg for imported CHILLED, CURED, FROZEN, and PROCESSED meat products in NZD for the eight key suppliers. The quantity of each is shown in MTs. The last two columns are the total MT that were imported for the period and the average price (total CIF in NZD/total MT imported). Country CHILLED_NZD.kg CHILLED_MT CURED_NZD.kg CURED_MT All OTHERS - - $16.84 13.6 $5.73 347.5 $8.89 13.1 $6.25 374.3 Australia - - $7.94 5.1 $3.92 328.2 $15.10 13.4 $4.41 346.7 Canada - - - - $3.65 802.1 - - $3.65 802.1 Denmark - - - - $7.62 120.2 - - $7.62 120.2 Finland - - $6.93 24.2 $5.17 217.5 - - $5.35 241.6 Germany - - - - $6.07 120.2 - - $6.07 120.2 Spain - - $7.81 24.2 $5.36 576.0 $50.01 < 1MT $5.48 600.5 Sweden - - - - $4.81 175.5 - - $4.81 175.5 United States of America $5.15 23.1 - - $4.11 450.6 $21.10 59.8 $6.06 533.4 FROZEN_NZD.kg FROZEN_MT PROCESSED_NZD.kg PROCESSED_MT ALL_NZD.kg ALL_MT 6 Table 3: Import quantity and pricing by country.

1.7 Pork imports by PRRS status of country Pork Imports per Month, by Country PRRS Status, 2013 to Present 7,000 *PRRS free countries included in this data are Australia, Finland and Sweden 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Import quantity (MT) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2017 Nov 2017 Sep 2017 Jul 2017 May 2017 Mar 2017 Jan 2016 Nov 2016 Sep 2016 Jul 2016 May 2016 Mar 2016 Jan 2015 Nov 2015 Sep 2015 Jul 2015 May 2015 Mar 2015 Jan 2014 Nov 2014 Sep 2014 Jul 2014 May 2014 Mar 2014 Jan 2013 Nov 2013 Sep 2013 Jul 2013 May 2013 Mar 2013 Jan 2012 Nov (dashed black line indicates new IHS in effect) PRRS country status NO_PRRS PRRS TOTAL 7

1.8 Consumption of imported and domestic pork NZ produced and Imported Pork Supply per Month 7,000 *Domestic production is sum of weights of graded pig carcasses and chopper sows *Heavy lines = 4m rolling averages; light lines = monthly actuals 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Quantity CWE (MT) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2014 Aug 2014 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2010 Aug 2010 Feb 2009 Aug 2009 Feb 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2007 Aug 2007 Feb 2006 Aug 2006 Feb 2005 Aug 2005 Feb 2004 Aug 2004 Feb 2003 Aug 2003 Feb 2002 Aug 2002 Feb 2001 Aug 2001 Feb 2000 Aug 2000 Feb 1999 Aug Source NZ Import 8

2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2014 Aug 2014 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2010 Aug 2010 Feb 2009 Aug 2009 Feb 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2007 Aug 2007 Feb 2006 Aug 2006 Feb 2005 Aug 2005 Feb 2004 Aug 2004 Feb 2003 Aug 2003 Feb 2002 Aug 2002 Feb 2001 Aug 2001 Feb 2000 Aug 2000 Feb 1999 Aug 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 NZ produced and Imported Pork Consumption per person, by Month Source NZ Import Quantity CWE (kg per person) 9

2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2014 Aug 2014 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2010 Aug 2010 Feb 2009 Aug 2009 Feb 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2007 Aug 2007 Feb 2006 Aug 2006 Feb 2005 Aug 2005 Feb 2004 Aug 2004 Feb 2003 Aug 2003 Feb 2002 Aug 2002 Feb 2001 Aug 2001 Feb 2000 Aug 2000 Feb 1999 Aug 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 NZ produced and Imported Pork Supply per Year (based on sum of previous 12 months) Source NZ Import Quantity CWE (MT) 10

11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Australia 10,837 9,400 6,359 5,835 3,932 4,647 4,369 4,164 3,337 2,336 3,163 Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 291 1,137 1,553 936 Brazil 0 0 3 0 1 5 0 3 2 0 0 Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Canada 9,147 7,580 10,508 9,363 9,016 6,612 8,554 7,619 10,667 9,069 8,203 China, People s Republic of 42 35 33 37 51 31 58 47 85 80 76 Croatia 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Denmark 836 269 1,346 2,790 3,174 4,090 4,384 7,285 6,638 3,271 1,228 Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 558 Finland 1,904 3,181 4,301 4,530 5,061 5,583 6,060 6,153 7,501 7,975 4,372 France 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 1 2 267 2 Germany 25 1 1 1 1 117 428 768 1,726 2,009 552 Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ireland 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 171 297 613 801 Italy 18 28 25 30 36 52 71 69 97 99 139 Japan 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 Korea, Republic of 2 1 3 1 4 3 6 9 6 27 10 Malaysia 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mexico 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands 1 2 2 1 50 2 1 98 350 422 824 New Caledonia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Peru 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 0 Philippines 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 Poland 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 178 457 1,160 Russia 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Singapore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Spain 3 4 3 7 9 10 17 1,277 6,109 12,223 10,507 Sweden 1,049 168 457 730 1,760 2,521 2,825 3,131 2,145 1,718 1,801 Syria 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Taiwan 3 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 8 9 Thailand 4 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 Ukraine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 United Kingdom 1 1 1 6 5 5 4 4 5 121 55 United States of America 4,780 5,702 6,489 5,416 6,283 8,052 7,850 6,410 4,689 5,284 4,986 Vanuatu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Viet Nam 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 Table 4: Historical pattern of pork import activity into New Zealand. Numbers represent the metric tonnes (MT) of pork that was imported from each country each year. Current year is year-to-date. Values are rounded up to the nearest one MT.