System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for September 214 and October 214 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for September 214 October 214 Performance compared to last year
Summary Report Sep-14 Oct-14 Total Number of Buy Actions 27 21 Total Number of Sell Actions 12 8 Total 39 29 Sep-14 Oct-14 Number of Material Breaches Number of Non-Material Breaches Oct-14 Oct-13 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) 242 33 Number of Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) Number of Non-Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) 2
Operational Overview
Month-ahead ensemble CWV October 213 to November 214 vs. Historical Range 2 15 1 Degrees CWV 5-5 1/1/13 1/11/13 1/12/13 1/1/14 1/2/14 1/3/14 1/4/14 1/5/14 1/6/14 1/7/14 1/8/14 1/9/14 1/1/14 1/11/14 Minimum to seasonal normal Maximum to seasonal normal Actual CWV Ensemble forecasts Mean Ensemble 4
Demands
Gas Demand Breakdown 1 st October 213 to 26 th October 214 Vs Previous Year 45 4 35 3 25 mcm 2 15 1 5 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 NDM DM [Exc Interconnectors] Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection Previous Years Actual Demand 6
Demand Variance from SND 1 st October 213 to 26 th October 214 6 4 2 mcm -2-4 -6-8 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Demand / SND Variance 7
Gas Demand Vs SND / Cold / Warm 1 st October 213 to 26 th October 214 5 45 4 35 3 mcm 25 2 15 1 5 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Total Demand SND Cold Warm 8
LDZ Actual Demand Vs LDZ SND 1 st October 214 to 24 th October 214 2 18 16 14 12 mcm 1 8 6 4 2 Gas Year 14/15 Average Winter average [Oct 14 to Mar 15] Summer average [Apr 14 to Sept 14] LDZ Actual LDZ SND 9
LDZ Demand / LDZ SND Variance 1st October 213 to 24 th October 214 8 6 4 2 mcm -2-4 -6-8 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Demand / SND Variance 1
Gas Consumption for Power Generation 1 st October 214 to 3 rd November 214 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 11 mcm/d 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec 1-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar Actual for Power Generation Base Case High Previous Year
Supplies
Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st October 213 to 28 th October 214 vs Previous Year 6 55 5 45 4 35 mcm 3 25 2 15 1 5 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Gas Day UKCS Norway BBL IUK LRS MRS SRS LNG Previous Year Supply 13
NSS [Non-Storage Supply] 1 st October 214 to 28 th October 214 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Gas Year 14/15 Gas Year 14/15 Margins Notice Average Max Assumptions Capacity UKCS Norway LNG BBL IUK 14
IUK Flows Vs NBP & ZEE Price Differential 1 st October 213 to 15 th October 214 8 1 6 + IMPORT TO NBP 8 4 6 mcm/d 2-2 4 2-2 pp/th differential (NBP vs. Zee) -4-4 -6-6 -8 - EXPORT TO ZEE -8 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14-1 IUK IUK Import Capacity IUK Export Capacity IUK Price Differential 15
LNG Terminal Flows 1st October 213 to 28 th October 214 8 7 6 5 mcm 4 3 2 1 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 South Hook Isle of Grain Dragon Previous Year LNG 16
Norway Flows 1 st October 213 to 28 th October 214 14 12 1 8 mcm 6 4 2 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Langeled Vesterled [estimated] FLAGS [estimated] Previous Year Norway 17
Long Range Storage Stocks [LRS] 1 st Oct 214 to 29 th October 214 Vs Previous Years 45. 4. 35. 3. twh 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 LRS 213/214 LRS 214/215 18
Medium Range Storage Stocks [MRS] 1 st Oct 214 to 29 th October 214 Vs Previous Years 14 12 1 8 twh 6 4 2 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 MRS 213/214 MRS 214/215 19
Short Range Storage Stocks [SRS] 1 st Oct 214 to 29 th Oct 214 Vs Previous Years.2.15.1 twh.5 1-Oct-13 1-Dec-13 1-Feb-14 1-Apr-14 1-Jun-14 1-Aug-14 -.5 SRS 213/214 SRS 214/215 2
Combined EU Storage Stocks [% Full] From 1 st Oct 214 to 3 th Oct 214 Vs Previous Years 1 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 21
UK Gas Prices 1 st Oct 213 to 29 th Oct 214 Vs Previous Years 11. 1. 9. 8. p/ptherm 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP 22
What Operational Issues Affected Users? 23
Transporter Actions and Neutrality Energy Balancing Capacity
Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM NGG Monthly Buys and Sells Oct 213 to Oct 214 Vs Previous Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gwh -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7 1-Oct-13 1-Dec-13 1-Feb-14 1-Apr-14 1-Jun-14 1-Aug-14 1-Oct-14-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Buy 214/15 Buy Prev Year Sell 214/15 Sell Prev Year 25
Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPB] From Nov 213 to Oct 214 1 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] 26
Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPS] From Nov 213 to Oct 214 1 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal] 27
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM] Aug - Sep 214 35,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 4,758,568 447,395 Net Debit 1,277,161 1,68,17 15,, 1,, 22,995,327 19,41,433 5,, Credits Debits 28
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Aug - Sep 214 Aug-14 Sep-14 Imbalance Payment [DCS] -6,56,32-12,85,42 Charge [DCT] 9,422,537 13,572,79 Scheduling Exit Charge [DXS] 14,128 14,941 Exit Charge [EXS] 68,728 87,312 Entry Charge [ESC] 116,9 145,386 OCM Payment [TTB] -4,26,93-5,861,88 Charge [TTS] 1,235,546 3,523,22 Balancing Costs 9,877-1,368,38 29
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs OCM Payments / Charges Aug - Sep 214 Payment [TTB] Charge [TTS] 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, 1/8/214 15/8/214 29/8/214 12/9/214 26/9/214 Day 3
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Imbalance Payments / Charges Aug - Sep 214 Payment [DCS] Charge [DCT] 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -2,, 1/8/214 8/8/214 15/8/214 22/8/214 29/8/214 5/9/214 12/9/214 19/9/214 26/9/214 Day 31
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Scheduling Charges Aug Sep 214 Exit Charge [DXS] Entry Charge [ESC] Exit Charge [EXS] 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1/8/214 8/8/214 15/8/214 22/8/214 29/8/214 5/9/214 12/9/214 19/9/214 26/9/214 Day 32
Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue From 1 st April 214 to 31 th October 214 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue - 25,777 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue - 189,919 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) - 16,323 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue - 412,19 33