Mee#ng India s current and future demand for palm oil the global and domes#c supply and demand scenario Sushil Goenka Director: 3F Industries Ltd, India Past President: SEA, India
Vegetable Oil Consump#on: 2010-2015 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed 2009-10 17.01 2010-11 17.18 2011-12 18.34 2012-13 18.71 2013-14 20.20 2014-15 21.80
Vegetable Oil Consump#on: 2010-2015 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed Domes<c Oil Availability 2009-10 17.01 7.77 2010-11 17.18 8.52 2011-12 18.34 8.15 2012-13 18.71 8.03 2013-14 20.20 8.38 2014-15 21.80 7.19
Vegetable Oil Consump#on: 2010-2015 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed Domes<c Oil Availability Imported Oil Consump<on 2009-10 17.01 7.77 9.24 2010-11 17.18 8.52 8.66 2011-12 18.34 8.15 10.19 2012-13 18.71 8.03 10.68 2013-14 20.20 8.38 11.82 2014-15 21.80 7.19 14.61
Category-wise Imported Oil Consump#on: 2010-2015 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Palm Oil Qty % Soybean Oil SoC Oils Sunflower Oil Rapeseed Oil % Total 2010-11 6.55 78% 1.01 0.80 0.01 22% 8.37 2011-12 7.67 77% 1.08 1.14 0.10 23% 9.98 2012-13 8.29 80% 1.09 0.97 0.03 20% 10.38 2013-14 7.96 68% 1.95 1.51 0.20 32% 11.62 2014-15 9.53 65% 3.18 1.54 0.36 35% 14.61
Per Capita Consump#on: 2002-2015 (in Million Tons)
Per Capita Consump#on: 2002-2015 (in Million Tons) 4.32% 8.51% 5.02%
Es#mated Oil Consump#on: 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Per Capita (In Kg) Consump<on @ 5% Growth MnT 2015-16 16.086 22.89 2016-17 16.89 24.04 2017-18 17.73 25.24 2018-19 18.62 26.50 2019-20 19.55 27.83
Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply (Other than CPO): 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO 2015-16 7.10 2016-17 7.90 2017-18 8.30 2018-19 8.60 2019-20 8.90
Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply: 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO Domes<c CPO Produc<on* 2015-16 7.10 0.22 2016-17 7.90 0.27 2017-18 8.30 0.295 2018-19 8.60 0.33 2019-20 8.90 0.37
Oil Palm in India
Domes#c CPO Produc#on: 2010-2015 Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on 2009-10 60,000 MT 2010-11 110,000 MT 2011-12 138,000 MT 2012-13 171,000 MT 2013-14 180,000 MT 2014-15 200,000 MT
Domes#c CPO Produc#on: 2010-2015 Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on 2009-10 60,000 MT 2010-11 110,000 MT 2011-12 138,000 MT 2012-13 171,000 MT 2013-14 180,000 MT 2015-16 220,000 MT 2016-17 270,000 MT 2017-18 295,000 MT 2018-19 330,000 MT 2019-20 370,000 MT 2014-15 200,000 MT
Indian Oil Palm Cul#va#on Map
State-wise Produc#on: 2013-2014 Total PotenLal Area idenlfied } = for Oil Palm cullvalon Area planted FFB produced during 2013-14 1.93 million hectares = 0.2 million hectares = 1.18 million tons CPO produced during 2013-14 = 0.18 million tons Oil ExtracLon Rate (OER) = 17 %
Government Incen#ves Subsidy on seedling = 91 / Seedling to farmer = 35 to industry = 56 CulLvaLon subsidy to farmer: 1 st Year = 4,000 / Hectare 2 nd Year = 4,000 / Hectare 3 rd Year = 4,000 / Hectare 4 th Year = 4,000 / Hectare Subsidy for intercropping = 3,000 / Hectare
Nursery
Planta#on
Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply: 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO CPO Produc<on Total 2015-16 7.10 0.22 7.32 2016-17 7.90 0.27 8.17 2017-18 8.30 0.295 8.595 2018-19 8.60 0.33 8.93 2019-20 8.90 0.37 9.27
Es#mated Oil Imports Needed: 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Oil Consump<on Total Domes<c Oil Produc<on Import Requirement MnT % 2015-16 22.89 7.32 15.57 68.02 % 2016-17 24.04 8.17 15.87 66.01 % 2017-18 25.24 8.595 16.65 65.95 % 2018-19 26.50 8.93 17.57 66.30 % 2019-20 27.83 9.27 18.56 66.69 %
Es#mated Oil Imports Needed: 2016-2020 (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Import Requirement SoC Oil likely to be Imported @ 30% Palm Oil Requirement @ 70% 2015-16 15.57 4.67 10.90 2016-17 15.87 4.76 11.11 2017-18 16.65 4.99 11.65 2018-19 17.57 5.27 12.30 2019-20 18.56 5.57 12.99
Global Supply & Demand Scenario Data reproduced with assistance from Oil World
World Production of 17 Oils & Fats 2015/16F - - 206.8 Mn T 1991/92 - - 83.5 Mn T Palm Oil 29,8% Rape Oil 12,3% Soya Oil 24,7% Palm Oil 14,2% Rape Oil 11,4% Soya Oil 20,1% Sun Oil 9,9% PKO&CNO 5,2% Sun Oil 7,5% Others/An.Fats 21,2% Others/An.Fats 39,3% PKO&CNO 4,7%
17 OILS & FATS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T) 30 25 20 Indonesia 15 Malaysia 10 5 Canada Argentina U.S.A. Ukraine 0 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16F
Major Importers of Palm Oil (2015) (in Million Tons) Source: hap://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=palm-oil&graph=imports
36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r Palm Oil Outlook in 2016 (in Mn T): Indonesia 33.0 vs. 33.4 in 2015 and 31.4 Mn in 2014 Malaysia 19.4 vs 20.0 in 2015 and 19.7 in 2014
Major Importers of Palm Oil (2015) (in Million Tons) Philippines Vietnam Russia U.S.A Bangladesh Egypt 0.700 0.740 0.770 1.135 1.400 1.500 Pakistan 3.200 China 5.700 EU - 27 6.950 India 9.525 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 Source: hap://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=palm-oil&graph=imports
17 Oils & Fats: World Output & Consumption (Mn T) 15/16F 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 Production..... 206.8 204.7 201.2 189.7 187.1 +2.1 +3.5 +11.5 +2.6 +8.8 Consumption.. 208.3 203.1 198.9 189.6 183.9 +5.2 +4.2 +9.3 +5.7 +7.2 for energy +0.8-1.6 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 other uses +4.4 +5.8 +5.5 +3.2 +4.7 Stock change. -1.5 +1.6 +2.3 +0.1 +3.2 17 oils & fats in Oct/Sept 15/16: ProducLon only +2.1 Mn Total consumplon growth to accelerate to 5.2 Mn T Recovery in biodiesel, driven by Indonesia Strong food demand
17 Oils & Fats: World Output & Consumption (Mn T) 15/16F 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 Production..... 206.8 204.7 201.2 189.7 187.1 +2.1 +3.5 +11.5 +2.6 +8.8 Consumption.. 208.3 203.1 198.9 189.6 183.9 +5.2 +4.2 +9.3 +5.7 +7.2 for energy +0.8-1.6 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 other uses +4.4 +5.8 +5.5 +3.2 +4.7 Stock change. -1.5 +1.6 +2.3 +0.1 +3.2 Demand drivers in Oct/Sept 15/16 are India and Indonesia with growth in Mn T: India +1.3 Indonesia +1.2 China +0.4 Other Asia +0.8 America +1.0 European Union -0.2 C.I.S. +0.2 Africa +0.5
17 OILS & FATS: Surplus/Deficit of Output vs. Usage 4 Mn T Surplus 3 2 1 0 17 oils & fats in Oct/Sept 15/16: ProducLon deficit Declining stocks AppreciaLng prices -1 Deficit -2 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 12/11 13/14 15/16F
750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 Daily Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T) ICE Gas Oil (Spot) Crude palm oil, cif Rott. 200 Ja15Feb Mar AprMayJun Jly AugSep Oct Nov Dec Ja16 Feb Mar Daily prices from January 2015 until 31 March 2016
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It was a Pleasure making this Presenta#on Thank You!